Monday Empire Report

soaofny • May 17, 2021

The Empire Report - Monday, May 17, 2021 - Race Analysis


A bunch of wide open races with opportunities for some nice payoffs!

RACE 1 - (2) ROCK THE NITE has only two "duds" recently and both were from Post 8 - moves back inside here, will likely get to the control the action, and figures to be a tough player in tonight's opener. (7) P H KENNY has been razor sharp for weeks, and last start was no exception (raced huge, despite a brutal trip) - would probably have been the top choice had he drawn inside, but he still might be able to beat these from Post 7...and the price will definitely be better! (3) MAJOR CROCKER wasn't bad at all in his first try back off the layoff, then landed on a no-chance trip in last - a smooth journey could land him a piece of this (5) CHANGE STRIDE N weakened a bit into 3rd after chasing a hot pace from the pocket in last - he has a poor win % here at YR, but he's always eligible to grab a share, if the trip is kind enough. (4) MARTY MONKHOUSER A was disappointing off the claim last week - we'll see if they can get him sharper for tonight, or if he continues to regress. (1) TIME OUT IM TIRED went a few good miles here back in 2019 - shows some decent lines out of town, but may be a bit on the cheaper side - guess we'll learn more tonight. (6) SCRAPPIN GOLD benefited from an inside trip in last to pick up 2nd - unlikely to be as fortunate here, especially from Post 6. (8) GIVENUPDREAMING will likely struggle to get involved from out here.


RACE 2 - Tough race: (6) CHRISTEN ME N brought his best effort in a while last time, parked every step of the way and still beaten only 2 lengths in 4th - hard to predict his trip for tonight but IF it's a good one, the 13YO double millionaire may be able to come out on top. (5) RECORD YEAR saw his 3 race win streak snapped 2 back when a close 3rd up in class - raced ok from a tough spot in last, and may be able to work out a better trip tonight - he already has 6 wins this year, so definitely consider if the price is right. (3) TWIN B SPEEDO was a winning machine at the end of 2020 and into early 2021 - hasn't had his picture taken in a while, though, despite racing for a bunch of different barns - maybe his new connections will get him back over the hump tonight? (2) CAROLINA MAGIC was a sharp winner (vs. cheaper) 2 back, but had no chance at all in last - moves inside, and his trainer is quietly having a pretty good year - consider for exotics. (1) BARBADOS definitely fits here, but he's been taking too long to get on the bit each week - even from the pole, it's hard to predict his trip - not impossible. (8) ROCK LIGHTS has shown that he can put in a big move from the back of the pack and he'll get his chance to do that again tonight - decent bomb for 3rd/4th. (7) ROCK ON LINE always finishes full of life but he'll be coming from way back tonight off a sick scratch - leaning to others this week. (4) ELRAMA N was one of the barn's 3 recent winners but that was vs. a bit easier - may have a tougher time with this bunch


RACE 3 - (1) AIR FORCE HANOVER was an easy winner here on 3/26...and that's one of the only 2 winners the barn has sent out since 3/1 (from 70 starts - Bronx Seelster was the other) - clearly it's risky playing anything from a barn that's been incredibly cold, but his last start at PcD was sharp, and maybe HE can be the one to get this team going again! (6) SHNEONUCRZYDIAMND A got beat in a 1:51.3 mile last start at the bottom level, but the winner did come back to win again the other night - not overly concerned about the double jump here, but the draw may hurt a bit...the main danger. (4) BETTOR THAN SPRING was an "ugly" winner in his return to YR on 4/2, and hasn't raced too well since then - should be helped by some class relief here, and that could help him at least grab a piece of this. (5) ALTA LEROY N steps up off a sharp 1st over win, but he can hold his own at this level too - include in exotics. (2) ELWELL QUALIFIED nicely after 6 months on the shelf - willing to include for 3rd in tris, with an eye on the future. (3) MAGRITTE's form spree came to a halt 5 starts back and he's really struggled even since - maybe the class drop will help a bit here? (7) MCCLINCHIE N really needs a better draw to be a player at this level - wait for a better scenario. (8) KNOCKING AROUND is good right now, but unlikely to reach from Post 8


RACE 4 - Another tough race! (3) REVELRY has been on fire at Pocono, crushing his opponents in 3 of his last 4, with a solid 4th from a no-chance spot in the other - he'll be facing better here, but he's still worth a play in his current raging form. (1) LYONS WILLIAM was sharp for some time, but rarely put into play early enough to be a serious contender - he's certainly responded to the more aggressive handling of late, though, and comes into tonight off a pair of very sharp front end scores - very legit threat to make it 3 in a row. (4) DREAMFAIR CHARRO ships in for a barn that does good work in NJ, and has some lines that would make him a legit threat - if the price is right, he's worth considering. (6) ALBERGO HANOVER threw a dud facing better last week, but beat this class here the week before that - drops right back into the box, and may rebound quickly...and should be a decent price off that last line (5) PROVOCATIVEPRIN CEN goes to another new barn and gets a driver that may know that his best work comes on the front end - always a chance if he finds himself able to make the top. (7) CRUZING HILL has been razor sharp for weeks and comes into this riding a 2 race win streak - the issues here are that he's moving to a new barn, is up in class, and draws far outside...if you think he can reach, you'll be rewarded with a big price tonight. (2) OUR CORELLI N picked up a 2nd last week but wasn't necessarily all that sharp - inside draw definitely helps, but he may prefer to be in a bit cheaper. (8) UPTOWN FUNK has done all good work since shipping in from PA 3 starts back...but will have to do it from Post 8 tonight.


RACE 5 - (1) MOHAWK WARRIOR might have been 2nd last week (and no worse that 3rd) if not for a bad step into the stretch - barn has sent out some scary sharp performers lately, so expect a big effort from the pole from this guy. (2) RUNRUNJIMMYDUNN N finished with solid pace once clear last week and does have a win at this level this year (from his 3 victories) - could end up with a nice trip from this spot, and he'll have a legitimate chance if close turning for home. (7) BLANK STARE took the NYSS 3YO Final here this past Sept. as part of a $205K campaign - took off the winter and has looked good in all 3 starts since returning for his 4YO campaign (including an excellent 2nd to a dead game Caviart Luca here last week) - might have been the top choice with a better draw, but he still has a chance even from out here. (4) QUATRAIN BLUE CHIP would have a shot to beat these if he was in peak form, but it seems he may be a notch below that right now - still has a chance for a good piece, with the right trip. (3) SILAS SEELS TER finally grabbed a win 4 starts back but that was vs. easier - looking at a smaller piece only vs. these. (6) BRONX SEELSTER qualified super at PcD but came up disappointingly empty here last week - should benefit from some class relief, but still hard to endorse on top after that last mile. (5) MARK WITHA K was able to take advantage of a class drop and the lead last week, but will probably find things a bit tougher tonight - probably a minor share only. (8) ONE OFF DELIGHT A is sharp for sure, but has to deal with both the class hike and 8 hole - tough hill to climb


RACE 6 - No real "throwouts" in this one! (7) TIN ROOF RAIDER benefited from a ground saving trip in that victory 2 back but was very good in last, pacing a :26.2 opener for the lead, fighting off a challenger with a quick 3rd quarter, then finishing a strong 2nd behind a winner that was much improved off a barn change - he's one of several that could take this, but he's sharp and will be a good price from out here. (6) TALBOTCREEKWHISKEY seems to run hot and cold, but the "hot" version is what we've been seeing lately - if he can land on a good trip from Post 6, he'd have a chance at another upset (like the one 3 weeks ago). (1) REDBANK BLAZE A quarter moved to command as the favorite last week but was overtaken in the stretch with no excuses - clearly another big chance from the pole tonight...but unlikely to be offering much value. (8) INCREDIBLE SHARK has been sharp in NJ and PA, but is faced with Post 8 upon arrival at YR - will need a bunch of trip luck to win from out here, so insist on a nice price if using on top. (2) HEAVENLY SOUND keeps climbing the class ladder while getting sharper with every start - the right trip puts him in play for a big prize. (5) WARDAN EXPRESS A was very sharp 2 and 3 back but not quite as good with the pocket trip last week - on his best, he could be a threat here. (3) HIGHLAND TARTAN can throw some big miles, but he's off a sick scratch, and facing a very tough bunch!


RACE 7 - (6) ROLLWITHPAPAJOE has taken 4 of his last 6 starts, with 8 holes in the other two - he's really developed into a consistent player, and he's shown that he can win from on or off the pace - if he can work out a decent trip, he'll have a chance to upset a couple of his "bigger name" rivals tonight. (1) OSTRO HANOVER wasn't really a big threat throughout the Borgata Series but he continued to pick up pieces every week - he's looking at a pretty good trip starting from the pole tonight, and he's another with a license at the mild upset. (5) LEONIDAS A got away last in the Borgata Final and never had a prayer after that - have to wonder just how tightly wound he'll be having been away for 4 weeks, so be careful about taking a short price tonight...especially since he may land on a pretty poor trip from this spot. (8) HESA KINGSLA YER N won 3 Borgata legs but enjoyed perfect trips each time - got used much harder in the final and tired badly at the end - came back with a nice effort at PcD last week, and Dave Miller is listed to drive tonight (if he decides to make the trip out here) - he's another that MAY end up with a pretty rough journey tonight, so don't hop on board if the price is too low! (4) TWIN B TUFFENUFF lost all chance when he got away 7th last week but he may be more aggressive tonight - chance to be in the mix if the trip is easy enough. (7) RAUKAPUKA RULER N sat last with no chance last week but had plenty of pace finishing - the trouble is that he draws outside again tonight, and may be damned if he leaves, and damned if he doesn't. (3) MACS JACKPOT has raced "evenly" in almost all his recent starts - could use a softer spot. (2) MOONSHINE KISSES won off the bad date last week after sitting a two hole trip - moves up in class here, and doesn't figure to have the same nice journey.


RACE 8 - (2) GALANTE A has been razor sharp for weeks but landed on the worst trip imaginable last start and had no chance at all - loses Zeron (understandably) to #7, but hopefully (substitute pilot) Marohn realizes that this is a pretty nice horse...and gives him a chance to succeed. (7) MICKEY GEE N was stuck racing first over from 5th into a hot final half last week but still kept grinding for 4th, pacing his own back half in :54.1 - if the pace gets contested up front, we may see his old sweeping move tonight. (6) LETS HAVE ANOTHER shipped in to a new barn 2 back and promptly delivered an eye-popping 1:51.4 blowout - stepped up out of claimers last week and almost replicated that effort, getting nipped right at the wire by the classy tripsitter - if speed is good tonight, it's possible that he could take these wire to window. (1) WINDSUN RICKY came to life 4 back with a win over cheaper then followed that up with a victory vs. Borgata eligibles - raced ok from a pair of tough posts in his next two, and now lands the rail for tonight - chance to trip out, and be a major player. (3) TYGA HANOVER wasn't all that impressive in last week's front end score but he raced better in almost all of his Borgata starts - may be sharper from off the pace, and he'll get that chance tonight. (8) IMA REAL LADYS MAN ships in sharp from NJ, but lands the worst post - see how barnmate INCREDIBLE SHARK does earlier tonight, and maybe get a better guess on what to expect from this guy. (4) CAVIART LUCA had all his gameness on display in last week's victory, but the 10 year old has become somewhat of an "all or nothing" type at this point in his career - may not get a trip he likes here. (5) ESCAPETOTHEBEACH has been overachieving in his last few, and may be able to pick up a piece tonight as well - will have to do it for a new pilot, though


RACE 9 - (4) GROOVY JOE was very successful at 2 and 3, banking nearly $350K - he returned ready at 4 as he knocked off the classy Better Memories here on 4/6, then went 2 sharp miles at PcD before picking up a solid 5th in a Graduate leg at The Swamp - figures to be headed right to the top here, and will have a good chance to take this either on the lead, or from the pocket. (1) SHADOW CAT had no prayer from Post 8 last week but moves all the way inside tonight, and he was a razor sharp winner the last 2 times he got to cut the mile here - serious threat, even though Bartlett opted for the top choice. (2) IM SOME GRAD UATE showed up off a less than stellar NJ qualifier but went a very solid effort, finishing 3rd (but DQ'd to 4th for a pylon violation) - classy veteran should be close throughout tonight. (6) HERRICKROOSEVELT N has been very sharp for weeks, but that trip last week was just too difficult to overcome - lands in another tough spot here, but he's certainly worth using in exotics at that 20-1 ML price. (3) DENVER SEELSTER faltered badly trying to cut the mile last week but he had been ultra consistent racing from behind for weeks prior to that - definitely ok to throw in for 3rd. (5) MIKES Z TAM is solid right now and his barn is going well - may not end up with the best of trips tonight, though. (7) MIGHTY SANTANA N is racing well now but the class hike and Post 7 figure to slow him down considerably. (8) KEYSTONE PHOENIX landed on nice trips the past 2 starts and took home a 2nd and a 4th - don't think he'll be as fortunate tonight, though


RACE 10 - (2) FINE DIAMOND rattled off a form reversing 1:51.4 blowout 3 back - disappointed a bit in his next when he came up a head short after a beautiful trip but bounced right back with last week's insane parked the mile victory, where he was unaffected by being left out to a half in :54.4, going by the leader to the final turn and actually winning fairly easily - anything close to that would beat this higher class as well. (1) THE REAL ONE takes a meaningful drop out of the Open, and the rail draw should keep him relatively close to the action without being used all that much - if he can sit fairly close to the final turn, he'll have his chance to rally by at the end. (7) EHRMANTROUT seemed to be tailing briefly but bounced back with sharp tries in his last couple - if you think Zeron will take a chance and send him from Post 7, then by all means include him on your tickets. (4) HEAVENS GAIT has won 4 of 12 this year but also been unreliable in many of the other starts - just not a great horse to take a short price with. (5) KERFORD ROAD A was a very game first over winner last week, wearing down the favored tripsitter - faces a bit tougher here, but he's sharp enough to grab a piece. (6) PERFECTLY CLOSE is sharp now, but prefers to be in cheaper (and in miles that go a bit slower) - tough spot. (3) IM BENICIO A feels like he may tailing right now


RACE 11 - (4) PICARD A had a nice trip last week but he REALLY exploded in the lane, looking super as he won first time off the claim - was impressive enough to stick with him, even moving up in class. (6) TRENTE DEO has been razor sharp at PcD, has won here in the past, and retains Bartlett...for whom he just recorded a win and a 2nd in PA - very live player. (1) POINTOMYGRANSON has a ton of speed and will probably look to cut this mile (after sitting the pocket the last 2 weeks) - it's not inconceivable that he could wire these, if speed is holding tonight. (5) LISBURN has retained his good form even as he climbed the class ladder - should work out a decent enough trip here for a chance to land somewhere in the exotics. (2) CAPTAIN NASH ships in sharp from PA but may be a little on the cheaper side - willing to include for 3rd/4th. (3) HOT DEUCE lasted on the lead 2 back vs. lesser (off a bad date), but came up empty moving up to this level in his last - always respect his very live connections, but others in here are just more appealing. (8) SKIP TO MY LOU was "sneaky good" behind a wall of horses last week - gets a drop, but unfortunately lands Post 8 again. (7) BETTING EXCHANGE will look better with a class drop and better post - can't really see him making much noise from this spot.

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