The Empire Report - Tuesday, May 18, 2021 - Race Analysis
RACE 1 - (3) YER SO BAD started to improve here a few starts back and began to race a little better each
week - had plenty of pace for a close 3rd on 5/4, then was 2nd at PcD in a quick 1:52 mile - if there's a bit
of a contested pace up front, maybe he can rally by late at a nice price in tonight's opener? (8) SPRINGBRI
DGE DUEL was reportedly a very tough colt to break but once he figured things out, he showed in a hurry
just how good he was - won his career debut in an OnSS in 1:51.3, then followed that up with another
stakes victory - got beat as the 1/10 choice in a Battle Of Waterloo elim. the next start, then regressed in his
next couple before going on the shelf - was purchased over the winter for $72K, and started his 3YO season
much the same way he started at 2...with a smashing 1:51.2 win at Chester - one of his owners is a pretty
accomplished trainer, but he's opted to let the "Super Siblings" handle this one's conditioning....so far so
good! (2) SARANAC BLUE CHIP blasted to the top last week from Post 7, grabbed an easy half then
sprinted home in :55.4 to score the 9-1 upset - should be a legit threat once again with the inside draw. (6)
THE COOKIE MONSTER was unraced at 2 and 3 but has started his 4YO year off with a 10-5-3-1 record
- returns to YR off a nice win in PA, but may need a little trip luck to get it done from Post 6 - consider if
the price is right. (4) GAMBLING TERROR flew home from last up the cones last week to finish 4th, not
far off 3rd (and 2nd) - always ok to include underneath. (5) MOXLEY is 5-0-2-2 locally but may be a notch
below the top ones - willing to throw in for 3rd. (7) TREVORS ACE was ok to the final turn last week
before losing touch with the winner in the lane - he's a good fit with these, but figures to struggle a bit with
the tough draw. (1) DANCING JOE wasn't terrible in his 3YO return but lands in a tough field here.
RACE 2 - Short field but good race: (6) SUMTHINBOUTIM won't be able to just take the lead like he did
in his last 2 victories, but it may not make a difference - he's razor sharp again, has shown that he CAN race
from off the pace, and he may even be a decent price tonight (with the outside draw) - worth using again.
(2) QUAGMIRE BLUECHIP was stuck racing from way back after #4 stole a :58.4 half last week and just
had no prayer - figures to be first or 2nd over this week, and can be a handful with either of those trips. (4)
GENIUS MAN has 2 wins, 2 seconds and a 3rd from his last 5 YR starts - his speed makes him a threat
every week...and tonight is no exception. (1) TELL THEM LOU chased the winner from the pocket 2 back
and was a close 2nd, then was a close 3rd in his last after sitting the 3 hole - looking at another easy trip,
with a chance to take home another good chunk. (3) SO MANY ROADS broke on the final turn last week
but note that the last time that happened, he rebounded the very next start to score at 17-1 -- good one for
longshot fans. (6) NOME HANOVER is solid right now, but seems a bit below the top ones.
RACE 3 - (5) STOP STARING had some success at 2 on the NYSS circuit, racing well enough to qualify
for the Final - returned in fine form at 3, doing good work in the Weiss Series, including a good rallying 4th
in the Final - been away for 3+ weeks but this barn isn't known for "racing easy", even under circumstances
like this -- just seems to have a significant talent edge over the others. (2) MY BOY JACK had a couple of
decent Excelsior A starts at 2 - ships back to YR after a couple of decent Ohio preps since returning at 3,
and he was Stratton's choice in here - expecting a solid effort. (3) EXPRESS ALL THAT was sent off
favored in PA in 4 of his last 6 starts despite (now) being 0 for 13 - moves to a new barn for tonight, and
seems like he does fit well enough with these - ok for exotics. (7) MR JOHN won 3 of 5 in Canada at 2, and
clearly gets over the half just fine - return qua. (at Chester) looks solid, and he's another that belongs in
your exotics. (8) KAUAI KING has raced well at PcD when he's left the gate - not sure how that'll work out
from Post 8, though. (4) RIDEAU SUNSHINE was much improved last week after joining his current barn
- loses Jordan S. to #2, though, and that could hurt his chances here. (6) HAPPY CAMPER gave it a go on
the front end last week and looked good...until the top of the lane - figures to be off the pace tonight, and
may be too far back to threaten. (1) SOUTHWIND GOLIATH failed to impress in his local debut, but
surely has license to improve for his excellent barn.
RACE 4 - (4) HITMAN HILL won a couple of races here as a 2YO and a couple more in 2019 (vs. much
better than these) - ships in to a barn that has won with a zillion of these types in the past....and will be
heavily favored to do so again tonight. (2) GHOST DANCE was forced to pull way too early last week and
was caught out into a hot 3/4s as a result - give him a complete pass for that mile and look for a much better
performance with the class drop tonight (and 2nd time in his new barn). (5) YAYAS HOT SPOT N failed to
take advantage of last week's class drop, tiring badly after a pocket trip - maybe a "relax and rally" trip
could work much better...as he gets yet another drop down the ladder. (1) IWONTDOTHATAGAIN hasn't
clicked yet since the claim 4 starts back but he drops, draws the pole, and is eligible to be more competitive
this week - use underneath. (7) BELTANE A is prone to clunkers but last week's mile was just awful -
should race better tonight, but not sure he can do much damage from out here anyway. (8) TOM ME GUN
N is another that came up incredibly disappointing last week...and now draws poorly tonight. (3) TALENT
SOUP certainly raced way better than expected last week, but was helped tremendously by the race just
falling apart - would like to see another good effort before jumping on his team. (6) WAY TO CLOSE
hasn't been sharp at all in his last few - pass for now
RACE 5 - (1) SAUVIGNON BLUECHIP showed ability from day one as a 2YO, pacing home in :26 in
both of his first 2 qualifiers - was a rock solid NYSS performer after that, hitting board in all 5 starts (with a
1:54.4 easy win here at Yonkers) - was unfortunately scratched sick from the Final, but his return qualifier
at Monti suggests that he'll be ready to roll right out of the box. (5) SOLID ALIBI had a very useful start
last week in his 3YO return, getting away 3rd and pacing a sharp final half for the show spot - trainer/driver
duo have been on fire across the river, and have a long history of success here too. (2) HES A SNOB wasn't
able to rally into 2nd in a Reynolds division last start but that was behind a couple of talented 3YOs - he's
been very solid in 2021, and should be able to have a say from this good starting spot. (6) HIGH ST
CORRIDOR has a win and two 2nds from his 3 local starts, hails from a winning barn, and always seems to
be a decent price - include him in your exotics. (3) CRYSTAL BEACH was an ok 4th in the same race as
#2, and definitely is a good fit here - another with a chance to grab a decent share. (4) KEYSTONE
NOLAN had a useful mile making his first start off the 6 month layoff - may continue to improve, but this
is a pretty tough NW2 field! (7) THINKING OF SLIM was overbet last week, and unable to get to the
leader in the stretch - draws horribly in a solid field, and may have to wait for a better spot to strut his best
stuff. (8) MCBUSTER moves to a new barn but may be a bit cheap, and lands Post 8.
RACE 6 - (4) DA MAGICIAN went a big effort for 2nd at PcD last week, despite a brutal trip (after being
stuck in the back, vs. better, 4 starts in a row before that) - lands in a pretty soft spot for his YR debut, and
looms the one to beat. (1) TALK SHOW banged out 4 wins in 14 starts here last year and was 2 for 3 to
start off 2021 - current PA form not nearly as sharp...but still good enough to merit a serious look from this
nice spot. (6) MAROMA BEACH gave it a decent speed try (vs. better) last week before weakening in the
stretch - drops to the bottom level now, but also faces a tougher trip from this spot - chance, but not worth a
short price. (2) ARTMAGIC is a pretty reliable performer at this level, but is also pretty camera shy - good
one to use underneath. (3) WALTER MITTY was off 5 weeks to his last start at Chester (after shipping
down from Canada) - eligible to improve off that mile, and land a piece of this. (8) SUNKEN TREASURE
gave it an aggressive try from the rail last week before weakening in the stretch - options figure to be
limited from Post 8, though. (7) LANAS DESIRE just hasn't been able to do anything lately - not writing
him off just yet, but also not ready to consider him from a spot like this. (5) BULLVILLE KYLE is
54-0-3-5 here over the past 3 seasons
RACE 7 - (1) MISTER REBBILY A threw a rare dud 2 back but bounced right back with a strong effort in
last (had NO chance, but paced a back half in a very sneaky :54.2) - feels overdue for a win, and Stratton
had the hot hand on Monday night (4 winners). (4) TIGER BARON is pretty good right now, and has even
done some good work from difficult posts - should be able to land on a decent trip here, and definitely can
be a player....even if Dube opted for #2. (3) GLACIS benefited from a soft field, good trip, and recent
addition of Lasix in last week's (rare) Yonkers victory - should still race well stepping up tonight, but hard
to bank on him winning two in a row. (6) ON THE VIRG was an "ugly" winner 3 back but was a razor
sharp "never in doubt" jogburger in his last - faces a bit tougher here, and also lands outside...still has a shot
but don't take a short price this week. (2) IDEAL WHEEL was sharp one level down in his last two starts
here, draws inside, and should definitely be able to outperform that 20-1 ML price - include in exotics. (8)
ITALIAN DELIGHT N is down to a level where he should definitely thrive, but may have to wait for a
better post to do it - has struggled lately to get involved when too far back early. (7) FULLBACK tends to
go in and out form, and doesn't seem to be clicking at the moment - will wait for a drop, and better post. (5)
ROCK N BLUE needs easier to be a player these days.
RACE 8 - (3) SHINY BLACK BEAMER continued to improve after arriving from Ohio, culminating with
that sharp, rallying win here on 4/27 - wasn't bad at all vs. older foes (from a tough spot) at Chester in his
next, and should appreciate returning to face these "NWPM" types - if he's close turning for home, he'll be
tough at the end. (2) KEYSTONE DAKOTA caught a razor sharp blowout winner upon arrival from Stga.
but did well to easily hold 2nd after the top one drew away late - been sharp for weeks, and should be right
back in the hunt tonight. (1) ROGERTHAT BLUECHIP has been sharp in PA after being killed by a pair of
8 holes in his last 2 local starts - logical player from this spot but note that he's 9-0-1-2 locally before
getting excited about using on top at a relatively short price. (8) IDEAL ARTILLERY was disappointing 2
back but rebounded with a big effort in last, from a completely impossible spot (:53.4 back half) - might
have been the top choice with a better draw, but hard to know just how hard he'll be used here from Post 8.
(5) BETTOR AT HIGHTIDE had good pace finishing from a tough spot in last, and does fit well with these
- use in exotics. (4) HURRIKANEKINGJAMES hasn't clicked yet since returning as a 4YO - waiting for
better signs before using. (7) SAILBOAT HANOVER broke from the rail in last and now draws Post 7 - his
8-0-1-2 slate doesn't inspire much confidence either. (6) BETTER UP was just way too hot to handle last
week for his new barn...but seems damned if he leaves, and damned if he doesn't
RACE 9 - Good race: (5) TOWNLINE ALL GOOD raced well here for 2nd the night he was claimed for
$40K - rallied for 4th in NW2000 in his next, then was sneaky good in his last, pacing home in :54.2 from
an impossible spot - decent value play in a tough race to figure. (2) CAN B PERFECT rarely goes a bad
one and is a legitimate threat at this level every start - he also hasn't WON in a while, so that 8/5 ML price
may see him going off way overbet here. (6) TOOKADIVEOFFDIPPER has been a bit inconsistent lately
but he did beat this class back on 4/5, and the right trip could make him a player tonight - another decent
value horse to consider. (3) WALKINSHAW N disappointed as the odds on choice last week but perhaps he
just doesn't like cutting a mile - if he's a decent price here, it's not a bad week to give him a look. (4)
ORILLIA JOE may need a bit cheaper to be a serious threat but his gate speed always creates the
opportunity for a good trip...and a chance to grab a decent piece. (7) NOCTURNAL BLUECHIP will
appreciate the class drop, but it's the trip (from out here) that's a concern - may not be sharp enough right
now to overcome the draw. (1) NVESTMENT BLUECHIP seems to be in a little tougher than he'd like
tonight....even from the pole. (8) MACINTOSH N doesn't figure to make any noise from way out here
RACE 10 - (2) CAVIART SKYLER may have had this drop in mind when he lagged near the back vs.
better last week - if the tote board suggests that he's "live" tonight, you might want to hop on board in the
finale. (5) ABRAXAS BLUES had a couple of "decent" tries recently but was actually VERY good in last,
making up a ton of ground to 3/4s just to reach contention, then staying on well for a good 3rd - won 6X
here last year, and may be sharp enough now to give these a tussle. (3) OZONE BLUE CHIP ships in off a
pair of sharp Fhd. tries and is a very logical player - it's the 9/5 ML that makes him less attractive from a
betting standpoint. (7) CENTURY FURY has excuses in his last couple - draws poorly for a new barn, but
he's an interesting one to consider for a piece at 20-1 ML. (4) BENHOPE RULZ N was no good cutting the
mile in his last pair but may race better here with a conservative steer - throw him in for 3rd/4th. (1) WAR
DAN DELIGHT N is just 1 for 22 at YR, and that includes plenty of tries vs. cheaper - the rail is easily his
biggest asset here. (8) KEY ADVISOR wasn't bad last week but draws all the way outside and may not find
a way into the hunt. (6) BIG BAD BILL was up the track in last after a lame scratch - still a pass