The Empire Report – Thursday, October 31, 2024 – Race Analysis
RACE 1 – (1) LAST POUND (barn change tonight) drops back down to the level where he last finished 2
nd to the runaway winner, in a sizzling 1:51.1 mile – he’s held his own with better, and could be a handful from this spot. (3)
IRRESISTIBLE ships in from Rideau Carleton with plenty of good recent lines, lands in a strong barn and gets
bartlett for his YR debut – hard to know for sure how he fits class-wise with these, but the guess is that he’ll be just
fine. (5) PORTERS MAN hit board in his last 4 and has a solid chance to keep that streak alive with any half-decent
trip. (4) THAT DOG WILL HUNT was a nose winner in this class 3 back and has excuses in his last pair – leaning a
bit more to a couple of others, but he’d hardly be a surprise. (2) CAVIART JUSTICE moves inside, and picks up
Gingras for his 2 nd local try – on the flip side, he doesn’t seem all that sharp right now, so demand a decent price if
trying him on top. (6) HES HALF NAKED was pretty good last week, used early, avoiding a shuffle at 3/4s, then
finishing strong for 2nd – much tougher draw tonight, and that may slow him down a bit. Both (7) KNOCKIN OUT
and (8) SWISS COTTON likely will need much better posts to seriously contend against these.
RACE 2– (3) I AINT NO MACK has gone a few big miles in the past but nothing like the beastly effort he
delivered last week off the claim – he steps up a notch, but anything close to that last (career best 1:52.2) mile is
going to make him pretty tough in here too. (2) TWO FACED threw a rare dud 2 back but he rebounded quickly off
the claim to score on the front end last week – he’s having a strong season, and remains a solid threat here. (5) SIP
OF BOURBON went a solid effort for 3rd in his local debut, gets Yannick for tonight and should fit nicely in this
claiming class – good chance he can outperform that 10-1 ML price. (1) LYONS PRIDE is unreliable, but capable of
a good mile at times – was dull (adding Lasix) last week, so we’ll see if he can be a little more alert tonight. (4)
CELLMATE may be a bit more comfy in 20s, but he can grab pieces at this level too, with a good trip– playable
underneath (7) FINAL CHEESERECIPE has had a solid year but does seem to be tailing a bit right now – he’ll have
a long way to come, even if sharper tonight (with some class relief). (8) OVER THE HORIZON won his last pair,
but vs. easier and with good trips – much tougher spot here. (6) SURFRIDER gets a tough draw after running over a
fallen horse last week
RACE 3 – (2) AUSTRAL HANOVER got a late start to his 4YO campaign but is now making up for lost time, a
winner in his last pair – we’ll give him the edge tonight as he looks to extend his streak to 3. (6) STEALING had no
room in the lane last week but had no shortage of trot – he’s technically moving up in class here, but still feels like a
good fit – can be a player with a good trip. (1) P C FREE WHEELING hasn’t been at her “best” lately, but has raced
well enough for good pieces in a bunch of her starts – she goes for a new barn tonight, and we’ll see if she perks up
some more (or goes the other way). (3) BEACON BEACH just picked his game up significantly after the 9/3 barn
change, grabbing a 3rd then a pair of wins – seemed to level off for a couple of starts after that, but rallied nicely
from a tough spot in his last – moves inside, and may have a better say tonight. (4) ENERGYSOURCE has become
pretty unpredictable from start to start – suppose he’s always worth considering IF the price is good. (5) MR CONT
ESTANT has taken 3 straight out of town for a small barn that has been sending out some live ones lately – worth a
look if the price is juicy (at least for exotics). (8) KINDA LUCKY LINDY fits well enough with these, but will need
a lot of trip luck to get close from out here. (7) HAVEHORSWILLTRAVEL N probably needs a much better draw
RACE 4 – NAADA Amateur Fall Series: (4) SECRET BRO seems to be ready to do some damage now after a
bunch of qualifiers, and a miscue here on 9/26 – his pilot has been winning these at a scary rate, and we’ll give him
the edge for tonight. (1) BACARDI can be a bit inconsistent but he recently picked up a win and a 2 nd at Fhd., after a 2
nd here on 9/19 – should be looking at a good trip from the pole. (2) VELOCIRAPTOR was stuck too far back in
that amateur race 2 back but he gets a much better draw for tonight, and his overall form is solid – could be a player.
(7) IMA STANDUP GUY behaved nicely in his last pair at Pocono and was rewarded with a pair of 2nds – that 20-1
ML listing does give him some appeal, even from out here. (3) CALL ME THE FIREMAN is also listed at 20-1 but
he’s been part of the action in way too many of these to not get at least a look! (6) LIVINGONTHERAIL had been
an afterthought for the longest time but his last couple at Freehold produced a win and a 3 rd – tough draw for tonight,
but wouldn’t be shocked if he could at least make his presence felt. (5) COVID CARTEL made a break in his local
debut – sticking with others, for now. (8) MYCROWNMYKINGDOM has more than enough ability to trot with
these, but will be hard pressed to get in play from out here.
RACE 5 – (5) COLD CREEK FELIPE had every license to tire after getting blown away by I AINT NO MACK
last week but did a great job easily holding 2 nd when that one drew off – he’s very good right now, and looms a big
threat vs. these. (2) SOUTH POINT has a few good efforts recently and the drop to 20s can only help his chances –
note that he’s just 14-0-1-3 locally before falling in love at too short a price. (6) TARGET AQUIRED is 0 for 8 at
YR but has raced well a few times vs. better, and has the speed to overcome the draw – possibility. (1) CHIP IN
BLUE faltered cutting the mile last time but a more conservative approach could give him a chance at a piece. (3)
ON DAY BOO was a short-priced winner 9/12 but hasn’t come close to replicating that effort since. Both (7)
MANHATTAN ARTIST and (8) CLEVELAND B MIKI figure to be stuck too far back to do any serious damage
here. (4) BEST BE TTOR has been away since April and is 0 for 56 at Yonkers
RACE 6 – (1) KEYSTONE DASH was stuck in tough spots in his last couple but he took 3 of 4 just before that –
moves all the way inside, and figures to be a very strong player tonight. (4) DIAMONDBEACH has struggled for
long stretches this year but he’s good right now, including last week’s very game first over score – can be a big
player again tonight. (3) JACKS LEGEND N has over $1M on his card but he’s really slowed down at age 10,
winning just 1 of 20 this year – he had a useful start last week (after a lame scratch and qualifier), and may be ready
for a sharper try tonight. (5) RECORD YEAR has been doing excellent work vs. 20s but now will take on the 25s
after a claim last week– we’ll see if he can have the same success with these tougher ones (2) UCANTTOUCHTHIS
never clicked after being claimed for $40K on 8/26 – he dropped to 25s for his last, was a no threat 4 th
, and now has missed 3 weeks – seems iffy. (7) MIGHTY SANTANA N will likely be back to closing this week after backing
through the field last time – maybe 3 rd/4 th? (6) FLIP MY CHIP just missed last time but benefited from his trip –
much tougher spot here. (8) VESPA N figures to be very conservative after last week’s disastrous speed try
RACE 7 – (5) CANTSTOP YANKEE has suddenly gotten VERY sharp, picking up a pair of sub 1:55 victories from
his last 3 starts (8 hole in the other) – steps up another notch, but just may be sharp enough right now to pull it off.
(1) DWS POINT MAN faltered after trying to cut the mile last week but should benefit from a more conservative
(yet close up) trip tonight – decent chance to land somewhere on the ticket. (2) RITSON has hit board in 5 of 6 local
starts including an easy win in his last Yonkers effort (vs. a bit easier) – legitimate player with the inside draw. (3)
FULL STRENGTH was really starting to hit on all cylinders and was on his way to hitting the top last week when
he made an unfortunate miscue – he’s up another class here, but still could land in the exotics...IF he behaves. (6) I
GET IT changed tactics and actually raced well from OFF the pace last week – maybe he can rally for a piece here
too? (7) QUEEN OF ALL has been a bit streaky this year and she seems to be off her game right now – Post 7 won’t
help. (8) UNEVERGONNAGETHIS disappointed in his last pair after a pair of big price 2nds just prior to that –
figures to be hampered by tonight’s draw. (4) SWEET SOUL DAVID is stepping up in class and may not be as good
as he looks on paper right now
RACE 8 – (1) KHAOSAN ROAD steps up off last week’s (bad date) victory but that shouldn’t be a problem as he
already beat an Invitational field here in late July – has to be accorded the edge starting from the pole. (4) DOMOV
OY was hard to gauge class-wise off his out of town lines but he certainly raced very well in his local debut, rallying
nicely from well back to be a close 3 rd behind CHAPERCRAZE – definitely attractive at that 8-1 ML price. (6) THE
HAZLETON was 1 for 1 here in 2023 then made his only local start of ’24 a winning one as well, beating this class
2 starts back – tough draw, but still one to fear. (7) BELLISSIMO FACE AS has now taken 6 straight (in front end
fashion) but will find things MUCH tougher tonight with a class hike and tough draw – that streak will definitely be
in jeopardy here. (2) BEE FOREVER is regally bred and always had talent...but he missed all of 2023 and his 3
starts THIS year only bring his career total to 22 – he adds Lasix tonight, but we’re still leaning elsewhere (at least
for the top slot). (5) TORRONE has been holding form beautifully but moves up to face tougher here, and it’s hard
to say if he’ll be up for it (3) TEXSONG SOPRANO has looked short since returning from a recent layoff. (8) PAPA
DOX is feeling mighty good again, but faces a daunting task at this level, from all the way out here
RACE 9 – (3) GAELIHILL was trotting strong at the end last week, his 2 nd start off the layoff – that’s a good sign,
and we’ll give him a shot in this wide open finale. (1) WILLY WALTON rebounded from the miscue 2 back to score
last week, off the claim – he was quickly re-claimed, and remains a very dangerous threat. (2) ICE BREAKERS K
upset these 4 back then picked up a 2 nd last week – good value horse to consider, at least for exotics. (7) PASSIONA
TE PROMISE struggled in his last 3 and has missed 3 weeks...he also drops back down to 40s and he’s been a beast
in this class – a big price makes him worth considering. (8) HAYEK draws Post 8 after being away since Dec. but
that’s a good looking qualifier for a sharp barn so don’t dismiss him too quickly. Both (4) STICK WITH ME KID
and (5) ROGER RABBIT have done plenty of damage in this class but both are coming off disappointing tries, and
could be vulnerable at the moment. (6) KING TUT HANOVER shocked cheaper at 20-1 last week but this class
jump seems pretty ambitious!