Monday Empire Report

soaofny • September 30, 2024

The Empire Report – Monday, September 30, 2024 – Race Analysis

RACE 1 – (2) SAN DOMINO A had no prayer last week but has otherwise raced well in his other starts at the $40K

level – he drops back down to 30s tonight, and he jogged in his last 2 tries in this class– feels like the one to beat. (1)

GENIUS MAN sustained his bid nicely the last 2 weeks from tough spots – he moves all the way inside, and could

offer some good value in tonight’s opener. (3) SADDLE UP is a bit of a question mark tonight – he was good 2 and

3 back vs the 40s, but never looked quite right last week and now drops down to 30s – not sure if he’s just looking

for a winning spot, or perhaps starting to tail off. (5) KOOTENAY SANTANNA gets a pass for 2 back (way off the

gate at the start) but really had no excuses last week – he fits well with these, but is just 1 for 14 at YR this year – ok

to use underneath. (7) CAUGHTINALANDSLIDE was claimed by a barn that’s been significantly improving fresh

stock lately, but doesn’t have the gate speed that most of their horses do – not sure he can find a winning trip from

this spot (or if Bongiorno can somehow get this one to leave the gate now). (6) JUDDY DOUGLAS A races better

on/near the lead but may have a tough time getting there from this spot – leaning elsewhere. (8) SWEET TROY is

the outsider – both literally and figuratively.


RACE 2 – (1) ADAM TWELVE seemed to sense the class relief last week and looked like his old (better) self,

wiring the field with absolute ease – he gets a free ride for tonight, draws the pole, and looms a very short priced

favorite. (3) BRUE HANOVER was also an easy front end winner last start, though vs. a bit easier – he could be the

main danger, but will need to come up very good to beat the top choice. (5) CADILLAC BAYAMA found himself

on the lead last week and can be forgiven for getting run down by some pretty nice horses – he gets a class drop here

but drawing outside the top pair doesn’t help – playable, but only if the price is generous enough. (4) KINGSVILLE

sat 3rd behind the top choice last week and wasn’t a stretch threat – he rarely goes a bad one, and can grab another

piece tonight. (2) SPORT SECRET has been sharp out of town, but faces much tougher tonight – the good draw may

help him pick up a minor share. (6) FRANCO NANDOR N has continued to race well since the form reversing win

on 8/13, but tonight’s spot figures to leave him shooting for only scraps. (7) OPTICAL ILLUSION N was 2

nd last week (after a win the week before) but is another that figures to have a tough time getting in play here. (8) CASINO

ACTION N will look more appealing next week...when he’ll likely be looking at a class drop.


RACE 3 – (3) ROCKIN JUKEBOX has been on an insane tear since mid-July, and drops back down to the level

where he just picked up a win, and a hard charging 2nd to a razor sharp AMERICAN DEALER N – figures to be

very tough tonight. (1) NANDOLO N was a solid first over winner over a bit easier 2 back, and can be forgiven for

getting outkicked home by the very talented CARABAO A last week – as is the case most weeks, he figures to be

very live...and very overbet. (4) NIGHT HAWK is forced to move up 2 classes tonight but he’s won 2 of his last 3

starts, and may be sharp enough to pick up a piece here too. (2) EUPHORIA N saw his 3 race winning streak

snapped last week but he landed on a bad trip, and actually raced very well behind the runaway winner – the good

draw makes him eligible for a good piece here too. (5) MAMBA has been good ever since arriving on the scene

(8-2-2-2) but may face limited options from this spot. (6) GINGRAS BEACH has never been known for his

consistency but he’s certainly held form nicely the last few months – brutal spot tonight, though.


RACE 4 – Tough race: (4) AROUND MIDNIGHT finished up decently in a hot mile 2 back, then stayed game to

the wire for a close 3rd last week, after a first over trip – if a few of these bang heads a bit, maybe he can charge by

late for an upset? (5) IM A POWERPLAY A was a front end winner when claimed on 9/9 then followed that up with

another wire to wire score last week – his current connections are sizzling right now, and this guy is a legitimate

threat to extend his streak to 3. (3) TWIG wasn’t quite up for last week’s 1:51.2 scorcher but his overall form is very

good right now, he gets Bartlett on board and may work out a good trip from this spot– possibility. (6) JUST ENUFF

STUFF also caught a hot (1:51.4) mile last week and should appreciate tonight’s drop to 40s – would have liked his

chances a lot more with a better draw, though. (2) UCANTTOUCHTHIS has been stuck settling for minor pieces in

his recent starts, but is another that stands to benefit from a hotly contested pace. (1) MEMPHISTENNESSEE N

came into his start 2 back at 0 for 27 on the year so it was it a surprise to see him claimed that night – it was also a

surprise to see him claimed again the very next week but to be fair, he IS racing better lately – still tough to try on

top, especially moving up to 40s. (7) SCRIBBLERS arrives from Batavia to one of our top barns, but also exits a

barn that has been winning all year at a very high rate (after dominating at Monticello for some time, just prior to

heading to Western NY) – tough draw for his local debut. (8) MIDNIGHT LIGHTNING was quickly reclaimed by

his long-time connections but the 12YO just seems buried in this spot.


RACE 5 – (1) PEACE OUT POSSE wasn’t hitting on all cylinders in his first few starts off the layoff but he picked

up a game front end score at Pocono last week and may be ready to build off that – won’t offer much value here, but

he does feel like the one to knock off. (2) ROLLING WITH SAM seems to land on more tough trips than any horse

that races here regularly, and last week was one of the hardest – he STILL was able to hold on for 3rd, and he always

feels like he’s just one good trip away from a victory. (5) POUND FOR POUND has slipped quite a bit from the

insane form he displayed for a while this spring but his last effort was his best in a while, and may signal that he’s

ready for an even better one – worth a look tonight? (3) GREAT SOMEWHERE had pace finishing last week and

drops to a more comfortable level for him – playable in exotics. (7) THE IDEAL DANCER A has some valid recent

excuses, including last week (no real room in the stretch)– he definitely fits here but the draw may leave him waiting

for a better spot. (4) BENHOPE RULZ N feels like he’s tailed off recently, but does get class relief tonight – could

be a spot for a wake up call. (6) MY CARBON COPY is 1 for 34 locally over the past 2 years – minor spoils only.

(8) FRANKIE FRANKIE lands Post 8 while up in class – usually not a good scenario.


RACE 6 – (8) ENDOFSTORY is a 3YO taking on older from Post 8 but he’s a talented colt, and he ALMOST won

from a very similar spot 2 back (as the favorite) – worth using tonight as long as the price is decent enough. (1) SIN

BAD N failed to threaten in his first start at this level 2 back (Post 8) but was absolutely flying at the wire from an

almost identical spot last week, and now moves all the way inside – deserves plenty of respect. (2) DEETZY hasn’t

been able to match last year’s outstanding 40-11-5-9 season and his big efforts this year have been more sporadic –

still, he can still throw a mile good enough to beat these when in the right mood. (4) ULTIMAROCA has always

been very streaky, and right now he’s in one of his “down” stretches – he can wake up and turn things around at any

time, so feel free to use him if you think this could be that night (any of his “good” efforts would make him very

tough here). (3) CAVIART SARGENT can be invisible for weeks but then will throw a big one, usually at a big

price – never a bad stab when the price creeps up high enough. (7) BIG GULP hinted at serious ability for a while

but then leveled off, and hasn’t gotten back to that top form in some time – tough draw tonight. (5) SHADOW CAT

drops a notch but probably needs to be in just a little easier to be a more serious threat. (6) MIDNIGHT THUNDER

seems a bit overmatched, especially with the bad draw.


RACE 7 – (5) TUFFENUFTOWEARPINK has been gradually tailing since being claimed here on 7/29 – he was

reclaimed last week by the barn who had him previously, and their last start together was a front end jogburger at

this level (also with Holland) – good value play. (4) BOSTON was off nearly a year to his last start but was flying to

the wire after sitting 7th all the way – obviously very dangerous tonight, but also figures to be overbet (as everybody

saw the same thing)! (7) BECHERS BROOK A is 11-4-3-1 here this year and comes off a pair of near misses from

terrible posts – continues to deserve plenty of respect, even with another bad draw. (2) PURPLE POET was never

close in his first start off the claim last week but he also landed on an awful trip – way too soon to write him off (for

a very hot barn), but also hard to ignore his 3 for 49 local record in 2023-24. (3) OZONE BLUE CHIP has won a

zillion races here over the past 3 years but hasn’t been at his best the past few starts – would need a good price to use

him on top tonight. (6) AUSSIE HANOVER has found some better form facing softer the past few weeks – moves

back up, and has to contend with a tough draw as well. (1) MACH N CHEESE lands the pole but doesn’t seem good

enough to make it pay off. (8) BILL HALEY N remains ever unreliable, squandering a beautiful pocket trip last

week after an excellent win the week before – brutal spot, even if she shows up in a good mood.


RACE 8 – Good Race! (3) AMERICAN DEALER N has been on an extended form spree, and that includes last

week (where he finished full of pace, from an impossible spot)– Bartlett will have more options with the better draw,

and that may help get him back to the winner’s circle. (4) COVERED BRIDGE seemed to appreciate the month off

as he kicked home full of pace in the lane for 2nd last week – he’s not quite the absolute beast he was for much of

2023, but he’s still a very talented, dangerous performer. (1) MY ULTIMATE BYRON A has remained sharp for

ages, and has proven himself even against these types – he was hurt by a tiring leader last week, but can become

very dangerous with a better trip. (5) ACT FAST made over $200K at 2, $175K at 3, and he’s thrived throughout his

4YO campaign as well, already banking $181K – he’s a proven performer over the half, goes for the leading barn in

the nation, and would be no surprise at all in his Hilltop debut. (2) HIMSELF N took a while to thrive in the U.S. but

he’s been hitting on all cylinders for a while now – he won this race last week, and was one of THREE straight

winners for this trainer/driver team last Monday night – the right trip makes him dangerous once more. (6) CHURC

HVIEWFRANKL IR is very sharp now but lands in a brutal spot after changing hands after his last start.


RACE 9 – (4) MIND HUNTER had been a major underachiever for some time but he’s been a completely different

horse since changing barns in early August, and seems to be getting even BETTER with each start – he moves up

from 40s to 50 here, but that last win was so dominant he just may be able to beat these too. (3) DECISION DAY

was handled ultra aggressively 2 back but was more than up for the task, a very easy winner despite the hard used –

he finished full of a pace from a hopeless spot last week, and that 12-1 ML price makes him worth at least a look

tonight. (2) ITALIAN LAD N is probably sharper than he looks on paper, gets a hot driver for tonight and is another

with a chance to add some juice to the exotics. (5) JUSTASEC N has been a very solid player at this level, compiling

an 11-3-3-1 record this year – he moves to a new barn off a pair of 2nd place finishes, and could easily be part of the

equation if the trip goes to his liking. (1) ORLANDO BLUE A had some good tries vs. the 60s so last week’s no

threat effort off the class drop was a bit disappointing – too soon to write him off, but still leaning more towards

others. (6) WICHITA LINEMAN had been struggling for some time but immediately came to life after the 8/14

claim, winning 3 of his next 4 starts - tough draw, but too good right now to dismiss too quickly. (7) TASTE OF HO

NEY was handled very aggressively last week but was still able to prevail over cheaper – asking a lot from him to

overcome the class jump and bad post tonight. (8) UNDRTHSOUTHRNSUN N has probably improved since the 7/4

barn change but he’s still very camera shy, and also has to contend with Post 8.


RACE 10 – (2) ROLL WITH THE FLOW ships down from Canada showing lines vs. better, and his barn has been

doing excellent work here for weeks – worth hopping on his team, especially since he was 3-2-0-1 here in 2022. (8)

BE DAZZLED LOU A may be worth a look (especially if live on the tote board) – he tired in PA on 9/14 off the

barn change, then took off the gate and never got in play here last week...this is a field where he CAN do damage,

and an aggressive try may give him a chance to do so. (6) STOP THE SHOOTIN has found some better form since

getting class relief in PA, hails from a very live barn, and could add some value to the ticket here with that 15-1 ML

price. (3) SURFSIDE BEACH is acting like the long year MAY be starting to slow him down a bit...but he does get

a class drop and move inside for a barn that’s heating back up, and we MAY see him perk up a bit more tonight. (5)

MY ULTIMATE STAR A hasn’t been a threat for a while but he’s also used to facing better – his barn has sent out a

lot of live (good price) horses lately, so don’t dismiss this guy too quickly. (1) SPLASH BROTHER will eventually

come around and be very dangerous at this level but for now, his form is definitely lacking (in his first 2 starts off

the layoff) – leaning towards others, for now. (7) QUALITY BUD just seems too far off his game to consider right

now, even at this low level. (4) SCOTT ON THE ROCKS probably needs to be in an easier field to show his best.


RACE 11 – (1) SHINE A LIGHT was stuck with Post 8 off a qualifier last week but absolutely had pace finishing

once free in the lane – drops, moves all the way inside, and a big effort is expected. (4) BLANK STARE should be

feeling pretty good about himself off last week’s easy win upstate and he’s certainly used to taking on much better

than these – very logical threat. (3) FULSOME should appreciate the post relief, and an easy trip could put him in

play for a good piece here. (2) HICKFROMFRENCHLICK was on the shelf since March – he broke (and pulled up)

looking to re-qualify on 9/13, but bounced right back with a much better qualifier at Stga. last week – definitely hard

to say whether he’ll be 100% right off the bat...maybe the tote board will help out? (6) GALANTE A has been ok,

has a good Yonkers history and feels like a good bomb for the bottom of exotics. (7) IKES DREAM was handled

aggressively in all 3 local starts and did grab a 2nd and a 3rd – may have a tougher time from out here, against these

though. (8) WINDSUN RICKY got parked the mile last week, so the guess is that he’ll be handled pretty

conservatively from Post 8 tonight. (5) SPRINGBRIDGE DUEL continues to disappoint in his local tries.

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