Friday Empire Report

soaofny • July 14, 2023

The Empire Report - Friday, July 14, 2023 - Race Analysis

RACE 1 - (1) QUATRAIN BLUE CHIP hasn't even hit the board in a long time but he did finally show

some better enthusiasm finishing his mile last week - he should be looking at a good trip tonight, and it

might not be a bad time to use him....as long as the price is worthwhile. (3) LYONS JOHNNYJNR would

look better one level down but the same could be said for most of these - he's very consistent, and likely the

one to beat...but also figures to be overbet. (7) GOTHIC ROCK has been good in most of his recent starts

but the dilemma tonight is that he races best when allowed to "relax and rally"...but he'll need to be used at

least a bit early on if he doesn't want to try rallying from LAST - if Brennan can improve position without

using him too hard, he'll have a chance to beat these. (6) DESIRES CAPTAIN is just 1 for 21 this year but

has raced well a bunch of times - not a bad longshot to consider if the favorites don't appeal to you. (4) BET

TER UP is just 1 for 35 locally over the past 2 years and hard to consider on top - ok to use underneath,

though. (5) KEYSTONE DASH failed to really improve off the class drop last week and needs to be better.

(2) ARTIST BEST really could use some class relief, as his recent efforts have been lacking.


RACE 2 - (3) STATEMENT MADE A has really upped his game since the recent claim, going 2 for 2 for

his current connections - 30s would have seemed a stretch for him not long ago, but he does seem capable

of beating these too at the moment. (1) DIVISION BELL drops down to a much more suitable level, draws

best, and has to be seen as a major threat (his last win came at this level on 5/19). (4) MINGO JOEL was a

winner 2 back then just missed (to #3) last week - he has 7 wins already this year, and shouldn't be taken

lightly. (5) ARRHYTHMIC SURGE drops down a notch after failing to function at the back of the pack

last week - may be able to rally late for a piece if that last start was just an anomaly. (2) ONTO EL DORA

DO N seems to be struggling right now...but may need to be in easier, regardless.


RACE 3 - (2) JIVE DANCING A was racing from the back in last week's Open and just had no prayer into

the sizzling :54.3 final half (she paced home in :54.2 and didn't get a check!) - she was absolutely on fire

for the 6 weeks prior to that (5 wins and a neck back in 2nd to LIT DE ROSE), and tonight's class drop

makes her the one to beat. (4) MCMARKLE SPARKLE also struggled to gain last week in the same race as

the top choice, but her recent form has otherwise been very good- clearly the main danger (1) UPTOWN

HANOVER does her best vs. a bit easier but the good draw should help her find an easy trip...with a good

chance for a nice chunk of this. (6) SILK CLOUD A showed ability upon arrival in the U.S. but she can

also be frustratingly inconsistent - note that she was favored in her 3 wins, and failed to hit board in the

other five local starts. (3) CHERYLS SHADOW was able to dig in to upset cheaper last start (at 13-1) but

will really need to up her game to be a serious player vs. these. (5) SMOOTH DEBATE N is putting

together a solid season (after a rough start to her U.S. career) but lands in a very tough spot for tonight.


RACE 4 - (5) MILLWOOD BONNIE N hasn't won in a few starts but that's mostly because she's had to

race from off the pace, against a stream of Open mares - she still seems as sharp as ever, and now lands in a

spot where Marohn can get more aggressive again - gets the nod. (7) TONYS MOM is another that's been

hurt by some very tough spots lately - gets a terrible draw here, but does have "blasting speed" if Holland

opts to use it - a quick start gives her a solid chance to be right there. (4) TECHYS ANGEL A struggled

early in the year but has been a very consistent player for a while now - she hasn't been able to beat these

yet, but it wouldn't be a shock if she was able to do so. (1) NATASHA sat in the back with no chance in her

YR return but did finish full of pace - moves all the way inside, and may be able to threaten in her current

form. (2) IN THE SPOTLIGHT N has a 2nd and a 3rd from her 2 local starts and her overall form is solid

as well - prefer others on top, but can see her landing somewhere on the ticket. (3) REACHTHRUTHESKY

AS has definitely improved since changing barns 4 starts back....but still feels like she could be a notch

below a few of the main players. (6) LADY NEWTON was MUCH better in her 2nd try off the barn

change but lands in a very tough spot for tonight (and loses Stratton) - waiting for a better scenario.


RACE 5 - 1 1/16th miles: (1) ABRUZZO has won 2 of his 5 local starts but he also lost as the odds choice

in the other 3 - he MAY not have liked being used so hard early on last time and might be better when he

relaxes early....could bounce right back tonight, and the price should be a bit better now. (8) P C FREE

WHEELING is good right now, and Post 8 isn't nearly as bad at 1 1/16th miles for a horse with speed - that

20-1 ML price does look tempting! (3) CANTSTOP YANKEE wasn't at his best last week but was still a

close 4th (after a break the week before) - he's gone some big miles here in the past, and he's worth a look if

the price is right. (4) JULA MUSCLE PACK loses Bartlett but Lachance isn't a terrible replacement for a

trotter that will be coming from the back - could make some late noise. (2) LINDSEYS PRIDE loved the

"dash" race 2 back, but couldn't stay on well enough back at a mile last week - may have a little trouble at

the end tonight too. (7) SEVENSHADESOFGREY rebounded from the miscue 2 back with a clean (and

steady) 5th last week - not a bad bomb for the bottom of tris and Supers. (5) MEMO was a front end winner

last week after stealing an easy opening half - unlikely he'll be as fortunate tonight. (6) VALENTINE EXP

RESS broke 2 back but rebounded with a solid try last week - very tough spot tonight, however.


RACE 6 - (5) MACH DORO A seemed risky dropping from 30s to 15s off the layoff/qualifiers but charged

home full of pace for 3rd on 6/30, followed by last week's win (at 3/5) - remains the one to beat. (1) MISSI

LE SEELSTER picked up 4 straight 4ths in 25s and seemed to be in a need of some class relief - he gets

that tonight (along with the rail), but it's a little odd/concerning that they bypassed the 20s and drop right

down to the basement - if nothing major has gone wrong, he'll be a very live player here. (6) CAVIART

VAL is probably a bit better right now than his lines might suggest - if Boyd can keep him motivated (not

always an easy task), he may be able to show up with some late kick, at a nice price. (2) FARMERS TAN

finished ok from the back of the pack off the layoff but disappointed off a good trip in his next start - can be

dangerous if he brings his best, but hard to say the chances of that happening. (7) HEARTLANDSBANY

BRO was dead game in winning 5 straight but just wasn't the same last week, tiring to 7th - he was claimed

that night by low % connections, and draws post 7 tonight...his price will go way up if you believe he can

rebound under the circumstances. (8) SMILEANDSAYCHEESE recently changed hands and he probably

fits well enough with the locals - may need to wait for a better spot, however. (3) SHOREVIEW is just one

of many from this barn that is struggling mightily at the moment (trainer is 1 for 82 at YR & Meadowlands

since 6/1)!(4) ROYHILL is 0 for 16 this year and looks a bit overmatched arriving from Tioga.


RACE 7 - (6) LOORRIM LAKE A just toured the oval from Post 8 last week (off a sick scratch) but really

didn't finish too far back - he beat better than these in back to back starts not all that long ago, and tonight

may not be a bad time to take a stab with him. (2) BALLERAT BOOMERANG will take plenty of $$ off

the class drop and rightfully so - major threat for a big wake up call at the level he beat on 5/25. (5) THE

REAL ONE hasn't been "sharp" lately, but he's down at a level where he may quickly perk up - would still

need a decent price to use him on top, though. (3) SETH HANOVER took a month off after clearly falling

off form but his first start back wasn't overly encouraging - mixed feelings about his chances for tonight as

he drops down a peg. (4) PASS A GRILLEBEACH landed in a soft spot last week and was able to prevail

from the pocket - this is a much better bunch, and he's likely looking at a much smaller share. (8) HES

GONNA GETYA has a couple of decent starts recently but will be hard pressed to reach from out here. (7)

MARLBANK ROAD was racing well vs. better for a good part of the year but has been off form lately, and

has missed 25 days since his last start - tough to like from out here. (1) STATE SENATOR is just one of

many from this barn that hasn't been clicking at all lately.


RACE 8 - (2) LIT DE ROSE sat last in a mile that came a back half in :54.3 and STILL managed to rally

for 4th (almost 3rd!), pacing her own final half in :53.4 - she's never a "cinch" (because she's usually driven

unaggressively), but she's just a super mare and should be able to get it done from this spot. (1) MAN DON

TFORGET ME has been razor sharp for weeks, finally picking up an overdue victory in her last - she'll

have a chance to beat the top one if she can take advantage of an easier trip. (5) KARMA SEELSTER is

hitting on all cylinders right now but unlikely to be able to just "steal" a win, like she did last week - make

sure to get a decent price if you think she can extend her winning streak to 4 tonight. (3) VIOLETS RAINB

OW used a ground saving trip to pick up 3rd last week - will need another easy journey for a chance at

another good piece tonight. (6) DRAMA ACT hit board in 7 of her last 8 starts - the one blip was when she

drew poorly...as she does tonight.


RACE 9 - (1) MISS DOTTIE MAE has really blossomed as a 4YO, though her last 4 post draws have left

her in terrible spots- moves all the way inside now and Holland should be anxious to give her an aggressive

steer - worth a shot tonight. (4) OKINAWA BEACH A raced super in her U.S. debut and was sent off at 3/5

in her next as a result - she could only manage a 3rd that night, but did deliver at ten cents on the dollar last

week -- obviously a solid chance to repeat, but she won't be offering any value on top. (5) MISS CHAN

TILLY N saw her 3 race winning streak snapped last week but did kick hom full of pace for 3rd - a good

trip puts her right in the thick of this. (6) LAURIE LEE steps up off an easy win one level down but she's a

proven player in this class too - she's done good work for a few months for her current connections, and a

live trip could land her a good piece tonight. (2) I LOVE ONGAIT banked nearly $250K at 2 and 3 but her

4YO season has been mixed, at best - if she brings one of her better efforts tonight, she has a chance to land

somewhere on the ticket. (3) BELLADONNA GIRL A acts like she needs some class relief before she can

be a serious player. (7) TWENTY tired after a first over bid in her local debut and now lands a poor post -

prefer others. (8) GAME OF SHADOWS has seen her game pick up recently, but likely needs a much

better post in a much easier spot to be a legitimate threat.


RACE 10 - 1 1/16th miles: (3) SMALLTOWNTHROWDOWN extended his winning streak to 4 last week,

while also reminding that he does NOT need to be on the lead to win - tonight's distance won't bother him

at all, and we'll give him the edge over his main foe. (1) GREY has been light on the wins this year (just 2)

but is still closing in on $100K for 2023 - she's feeling good right now, and finished right behind the top

choice last week - the main danger in what may prove to be a repeat of last week. (2) BARRY BLACK was

one of many from this barn to hit a recent dry spell but his last few have been more encouraging - chance

for a small slice. (5) WILLY WALTON has been "steady" lately, though only picking up minor pieces -

seems headed for a similar fate tonight. (7) NEWSBOY was sharper than he looked on paper so last week's

easy victory really should have come as no big surprise - much tougher spot tonight, however, and Bartlett

figures to be missed. (4) STARLIT RAMBO just seems to do much better out of town this year, than here at

Yonkers - maybe 3rd/4th? (8) DOWN THE PIKE MIKE was in a perfect spot to use his speed in that sprint

race 2 back, so his 14-1 payoff was a major overlay for sure - he did make an uncharacteristic break in his

last, however, and faces an uncertain journey from Post 8 tonight. (6) UP HELLY AA picked up a pair of

(well beaten) 2nds before coming up weak in his last - not a great spot tonight.


RACE 11 - (2) MARINER SEELSTER struggled here early this year (after amazing back to back years)

but did see his form pick back up after moving to Pocono - he landed on a terrible trip in his return last

week, but gets a much better draw for tonight - may give Pantaleano a chance for his first YR win since

2021. (5) PICARD A landed on the two hole trip last week and was able to convert it to a victory - logical

threat to pick up another win, (1) OURRHYTHMNBLUES N is right there every week but has only one

recent win - would rather use him underneath than on top, especially as the 9/5 ML choice. (4) SHANWAY

N trailed all the way last week but had been rallying late in his previous few - better draw now, and a

chance to land somewhere in the exotics. (6) WILLIAM HANOVER won his first start here on 6/6

(NW4PM) but leveled off right after that - tries his luck in claimers now, and should fit well enough to at

least contend for a piece. (3) SWAGASAURUSREX moves inside and has some late pace every now and

then - throw in for 3rd/4th? (7) BARRYWHITE HANOVER has been going mostly good miles at Monti

but would look better here in a $15K claimer, from a better post. (8) THOR AND DR JONES draws all the

way outside for his YR return and may need to wait for a better draw.

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