Monday Empire Report

soaofny • July 17, 2023

The Empire Report - Monday, July 17, 2023 - Race Analysis

RACE 1 - (6) IMMA BE is yet another outstanding rehabilitation project from this trainer - he went on the

shelf after tiring in a $15K claimer on 12/31, folded badly at Tioga after finally returning in June but a

move to this powerful barn resulted in a win here on 6/24 (beat the 15s at 1/5), a jogburger in 25s the next

start, and then a neck loss (at 6/5) vs. the 50s last week - feels like the one to beat, despite the bad draw. (3)

LOUIE THE LOOPER has a mixed bag of tries since arriving here (for a new barn) 3 starts back - if he can

replicate that effort from 6/26, he'd have a chance to upset here. (4) KING JAMES EXPRESS won here on

5/29 and has been rock solid ever since - he goes for a new barn tonight (after racing for 3 of our top ones),

and it's hard to know if he'll stay as sharp - tough to endorse on top as the 8/5 ML choice. (2) UMBERTO

hasn't been a threat lately, but hasn't been "bad" either- he may be more aggressive from the inside, and that

could put him in play for a good piece. (5) DREAMING OF LOU ships in from PA and seems like he may

be a good fit - if he has any speed, this would be a good spot to use it (or he'll be coming from last). (1) SIX

FEET APART has been struggling, and was just dismal last week - hard to like right now.


RACE 2 - (3) AMERICAN MERCURY hasn't enjoyed much success (in limited action) here as an older

horse, but he did set a track record here at 3 (NYSS) while also scoring an upset in the 2019 Messenger - he

recently teamed up with the Super Siblings & like so many before him, obliterated the field in his qualifier

then jogged in his first start - should be able to beat these too. (2) KOOTENAY SANTANNA tailed for a

few starts but seems back on the upswing after a recent claim - fits very nicely here, and should be looking

at a good piece. (4) PEDRO HANOVER was outstanding for months before a trio of June clunkers - his

last was much better, though, and we'll see if he keeps heading in the right direction (1) HES SPECIAL was

VERY good from Post 8 on 6/29 - the public caught right on, and he went from 89-1 to 1/2...and delivered

a hard fought victory - in much tougher now, but still sharp enough for a piece. (5) BRAEVIEW BONDI A

took a shot from Post 7 last week, but fell apart after cutting the mile - may be able to rally for a small share

from the back tonight. (6) BONDI SHAKE A is the outsider....literally and figuratively.


RACE 3 - (6) STRIKING IMPACT has been insanely sharp in back to back blowouts - elects to drop in for

$75K (and gets stuck outside as a result), but just seems sharp enough right now to find a way to overcome

the draw. (3) JK STANDINGOVATION has gotten much sharper since disappointing as the favorite at The

Swamp (vs. much easier) on 5/20 - he's left the gate in his last 3 local starts, resulting in a blowout win on

6/19, and a 2nd to the top choice last week (he probably would have also won on 6/12, when he made a

costly break on the lead!) - chance for the minor upset tonight? (1) SHAKESPEARE is right at home in this

class and moves to a barn that is an unfathomable 13-8-2-2 off the claim (at Yonkers) - obviously it would

be no surprise if he ended up in the winner's circle tonight. (5) STELLAR YANKEE is another razor sharp

player in here (won 3 of 4), but he doesn't have the best gate speed and may end up with a tougher trip than

he'd like - will need some trip luck. (4) PINEBUSH LIFESAVER is still racing hard every start but does

seem to have tailed just a bit - can't count him out, but prefer others (on top) right now. (2) COALITION

HANOVER has been limited to smaller pieces lately...and could be looking at a similar fate tonight.


RACE 4 - (3) PRICELESS BEACH got a rare drop from the Open 2 back and jogged in this class (from

Post 7) - deja vu? (1) SPEED MAN N was a game winner last week despite racing off a sick scratch - he'll

likely be in the pocket tonight, but he probably prefers that trip - the main danger? (3) HICKFROMFRENC

HLICK has been sharp for weeks, and that includes last week's 2nd place finish - not sure he can win from

this spot, but another good slice is very realistic. (4) WALKINSHAW N is another that's been sharp for

some time, but he's usually at the mercy of the pace - he'll be rallying late...but for how big a piece? (5) SO

NNY WEAVER N loves Yonkers (15-8-0-3), but takes a big step up off last week's victory - not sure he can

do much damage from this spot. (6) SAVE ME A DANCE is feeling pretty good right now, but lands all the

way outside in a field full of speedy inside players - may need to wait for a better scenario.


RACE 5 - (4) SAILBOAT HANOVER has been sharp ever since arriving from Canada - wasn't at his best

when 3rd two back, but did finish crisply for 2nd last week - chance to get back to the winner's circle here

if some racing luck comes his way. (8) POINTOMYGRANSON weakened a bit in his last pair but it's hard

to say if all those hard races are finally taking a toll, or if he was just roughed up a bit more in those miles -

the extra week off may help his cause, and he's more than fast enough to overcome Post 8...worth using. (3)

NOME HANOVER broke his Yonkers maiden here in April (just after joining the Dynamic Duo) but hasn't

been back to the winner's circle since - he'll have a say in here for sure, but prefer to use him underneath,

rather than on top. (1) L DEES JACK LOPEZ could be the "x factor" tonight - ships in off 3 straight in IL,

but no doubt vs. much easier- he's had some success here in the past, so he'd hardly be any real shock in his

YR return. (6) TOWNLINE ALL GOOD hasn't been "bad", but he also hasn't won in a while - tonight's

tough post won't make things any easier (2) NOWHERE CREEK A is camera shy as it is, but he also hasn't

really looked sharp in his last pair - minor piece only. (5) DON DOMINGO N seemed to be doing good

work after returning from a long layoff but has now missed 4 weeks after being scratched lame - sticking

with others, for now (7) PRETTY HANDSOME reverted to his lesser form last week after a form reversing

23-1 upset the week before...now lands Post 7.


RACE 6 - (2) ALLUNEEDISFAITH N was another of the Canadian shippers that instantly thrived locally

upon joining this high-powered barn - he rattled off three straight before settling on smaller pieces in some

tough fields...but his last was especially sharp (full of pace finishing), and Kakaley can handle him more

aggressively tonight with the move inside - solid player. (5) MOONLIGHT SHADOW is very good right

now, and can be equally effective on or off the pace - solid threat if the trip goes his way. (1) AIR FORCE

HANOVER would definitely like to be in a bit easier, but an easy trip from this spot could see him take

home a nice piece of this- he's avoided his usual "dry spells" pretty nicely this year. (3) WINDSUN RICKY

took plenty of $$ last week and responded with a solid wire to wire score - faces better now, but still could

grab a share with a good journey. (6) VIVA LAS VEGAS N has held form beautifully even as he's risen

from the bottom level all the way up to one notch below the Open - will need some help, though, as he'll be

looking to rally from last. (4) ROCK DIAMONDS N quickly took to the program after moving to this barn,

winning 8 straight before coming up short in the "Pop Up" Final - he's been off for 3 weeks, faces tougher,

and may not be at his absolute best this start.


RACE 7 - (3) WICHITA LINEMAN went through a rough patch for a couple of months (including some

tough posts in very good fields) - he was definitely very well meant last week, but after a fast start from

Post 7 he ended up behind a tiring leader to the top of the lane, and really had no chance for better than 4th

- drops to a very easy level (for him), and should be a big threat tonight. (1) HEEZ OURPERSEUS N got a

BIG wake up call last week in his 3rd start after the barn change- assuming he can build off that, he may be

the main danger from this spot. (6) JAY BRACKEN A went a good effort last week, showing speed at both

ends of the mile - he's struggled to WIN races this year, but another quick start would give him a good shot

for a nice piece of this. (2) HEISMAN PLAYER went a big mile and took a tough beat 3 back - no chance

8 hole in his next, and then an "ok" 3rd last week - if he shows up on his better game tonight, he can land

somewhere on the ticket. (4) MAXIMUS RED A caved badly after an attempted speed try last week but

can bounce back with a better effort tonight with a more patient steer- maybe 3rd/4th? (5) HES ELECTRIC

didn't fire at all last week off an easy trip but that doesn't mean he won't rally for a minor piece tonight - ok

bomb for 3rd/4th. (7) MY ULTIMATE STAR A had been holding his own vs. much better for weeks (for

small pieces) but disappointed in his last off the class drop - won't be any easier coming from last tonight.


RACE 8 - (6) MOONSHINE KISSES has been enjoying an outstanding season and his "reward" was a

Post 6 assignment for tonight - he's been insanely sharp for months, doesn't need the lead to win, and looms

the one to beat in this very modest Open field. (1) GREAT SOMEWHERE has come up 2nd best in 3

straight - tonight's rail draw may help him extend that streak to 4. (4) CAPTIVATE HANOVER was just a

tad off his best form for a couple of starts but bounced back with wins in his last pair - could contend for

another good chunk tonight, despite technically moving up in class. (3) GROOVY JOE found himself

down in NW5000 (at Chester) on 5/21 - he jogged that day, and has compiled a 7-4-2-1 record since then as

he's climbed right back up the ladder - a good trip could land him another nice slice here. (5) SPLASH BR

OTHER has been in good form for some time but his trouble on turns is a bigger obstacle up at these top

levels - would need a good price to use him from this spot. (2) CHANTEE has been using his late kick to

pick up 2 wins, a 2nd and a 3rd from his last 5 starts - may have a tougher time rallying against these,

though.


RACE 9 - Well matched field! (6) WAR DAN DELIGHT N was an "autotoss" for much of the last 3 years

but suddenly found his form this spring, won a couple of starts, and may be the "sharpest" of all of these

right now - tough post, but still worth using if the price is fair. (2) KEYSTONE PHOENIX has been racing

himself back into shape after a long layoff and his last pair suggest he may be ready for a more aggressive

try - and he just may be up for it. (5) FLOW WITH JOE looked ready to rally a bit in the stretch last week

when he jumped over an object on the track and went offstride - he's unreliable from start to start, but worth

a look here at the right price. (3) CONBOYVILLE finally got a good draw last week and delivered a dead

game first over victory - has raced well most of the year (though a little short on victories), and remains a

threat to repeat. (4) BRACKLEY BEACH always figures, is right there every week, but is now 0 for 20 on

the year - playable, but only if the price is fair. (7) WON LAST FEELING raced well in both starts since

returning from PA but draws the worst post in a solid field - may need to wait for a better spot. (1) HURRI

KANE GEORGIE failed to hit board in 8 of his last 10 starts - moving him up to 30s probably won't help.


RACE 10 - (1) JUSTASEC N scored from the pocket (in this class) 2 back then came up 2nd best to the

razor sharp ALOTBETTOR N in his last, despite leaving from Post 8 - moves all the way inside, and that

may help him get back to the winner's circle. (3) SHNEONUCRZYDIAMND A had no chance the last 2

weeks (7 holes) but finished well each time - gets post relief now, and he does grab his share of wins here

every year - may be ready for a much bigger effort now. (7) ALOTBETTOR N won his 3rd in a row last

week, and also his 4th in the last 5 starts - he's looking at a much tougher trip from Post 7, but he's shown

that he can win from OFF the pace, as well - don't dismiss him too quickly! (4) DELIGHTFUL TERROR

got a nice wake up call (in a weak field) 2 back to score the easy victory - was a no match 2nd in his last,

and should be able to contend for a good piece tonight, as well. (2) HUDSON PHIL arrives from Stga.

showing solid recent form, but may be a bit cheaper than a few of these right now - willing to consider for

the bottom of exotics. (5) HEART ON MY SLEEVE gets a pass for his last (broken equip.) but it's hard to

overlook that his barn is 1 for 86 (on both sides of the river) since June 1st! (6) BLUEBIRD RECON was

able to hold 3rd after a quick start last week, but may face a tougher journey tonight.


RACE 11 - (7) LUCKBEWITHALEX has only picked up smaller pieces in his last 3 starts but he was

facing MUCH better than these, and really wasn't bad at all - he would probably stick out from a better post

but just may be good enough to win from out here, with some trip luck - at least the price should be decent.

(4) KJ HUNTER was a solid 3rd at this level arriving from Monti 2 back - drops back down, and may be

able to add some value to exotics. (3) THRASHER probably hasn't been at his best the last few starts, but

hasn't been "bad", either - should appreciate the drop out of 50s. (1) GENIUS MAN was a solid winner this

level 2 back then broke in his last...and that kind of inconsistency has plagued him at times - should be right

in the hunt if the "good' version shows up. (5) ALEX TYE handled easier for back to back victories - steps

up another notch, but could be sharp enough to contend in here too. (2) B LIKE CRUISER was racing well

until having some sort of issue on 6/12 - qualified back ok, but it's anybody's guess as to what we'll get

from him tonight. (6) YO AJ feels like he's leveled off after a couple of wins here in May - bad post, too.


RACE 12 - (6) IGNATIUS A must have looked like quite the stickout in his last at Chester as he was sent

off at five cents on the dollar with young Jonathan Ahle on board - he was a total jogburger, and looks to

finally break his Yonkers schneid shipping back in tonight - he "gets stuck" with Stratton (as Lachance has

his own #7 in here), and that may finally get him to the Hilltop winner's circle. (1) SON OF A TIGER N

was surprisingly unaggressive last week after jogging on the lead the week before - he still finished up well

for 4th, and could be a big threat from the pole tonight. (2) DIAMONDBEACH delivered a good one with

that win 2 back, but then blew up before the start last week - like so many of his barnmates, he's just a total

guessing game right now (4) MICKY GEE N started off his season in promising fashion but is still winless

after 11 tries - he'll get there one of these nights, but don't take a short price chasing him. (5) DEEP INFAT

UATION N was just "good' winning his U.S. debut so it was no real surprise to see him come up a bit short

up in class last week - remains a threat, but insist on a fair price if using on top. (7) IMSTAYNALIVE is

usually good for some late pace but he's 0 for 13 this year and will be coming from well out of it - maybe

3rd or 4th? (3) INDICTABLE HANOVER's 2 wins here this year came when he was able to hit the lead

and outrun cheaper - has otherwise struggled in many of his starts. (8) ALTA BLUES A seems unlikely to

get anywhere near the action after drawing another 8 hole.

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