The Empire Report - Monday, August 29, 2022 - Race Analysis
RACE 1 - (3) EHRMANTROUT was hurt behind a half in/half out (then tiring) pocket horse last week - he
was a sharp 2nd the prior start, and caught in stretch traffic the week before that - may be able to leave to
leave for a pocket trip here...with a shot to come out on top at a decent price. (6) RAUKAPUKA RULER N
hasn't won in a while but he's hit board in 6 of his last 7, often behind better than these - very legitimate
chance to wire these. (5) WALKINSHAW N charged home full of pace last week but the winner was
already long gone - he's always tough at this level, but will need a bit of trip luck from this spot....may or
may not get it. (4) WATERWAY held very well after a tough, long uncovered grind last week - his overall
form has been good for a long time, but he MAY prefer to be in a vs. just a bit cheaper - possible, but that
2-1 ML price is a bit of a turn off. (2) APEX SEELSTER has been a bit in and out lately - on his best, he'd
have a chance to rally for a good chunk of it - consider for exotics if the price is juicy. Both (7) OUR
CORELLI N and (8) GINGRAS BEACH are both very good right now....but there's a chance that neither of
them will be able to get into the hunt from their outside posts - leaning to others this week, although either
could show up if the race falls apart a bit. (1) GAMBLINGTERROR draws best, but still seems a bit
overmatched vs. a bunch of these - wait until he gets in a bit easier
RACE 2 - (1) EMOTIONS RICHES was caught brushing into the fastest part of the mile last week -
couldn't get past the sharp winner in the stretch, but still raced very well (as the odds on choice) - solid
chance to make amends tonight. (2) ALL CHAMPY has been racing well lately, and gets some post relief
for tonight - might be next in line should the top one falter. (6) P L OSCAR was a surprise leaver from Post
8 last week - he was able to grab a two hole trip, and hung in well to be 4th....can contend for a good share
against these too. (5) GREY was a pocket winner 4 back but did little before or after - gets some post relief
here, and we'll see if she can find a better effort, and take home a decent piece. (8) KANDY SWEET can do
some damage at this level but maybe not from out here - would consider using for 3rd/4th if the price is
really appealing. (7) CHAMPAGNE ON ICE has needed to be in cheaper to succeed even for this top barn
- minor share only. (3) FASHION FOREVER continues to pick up only the smallest of pieces in this class -
likely more of the same tonight. (4) ABSOLUT UNCERTENTY has gone bad - hard to endorse right now
RACE 3 - (1) ULTIMAROCA was loaded in 3rd coming to the half last week, paced a :26.3 third panel to
get up to press the winner (#8) to 3/4s, stayed dead game all the way and was right there 3rd on the wire -
an easier trip tonight might get him to the winner's circle. (8) NONE BETTOR A was able to withstand the
heat from the top pick last week, digging in gamely to the wire to secure the front end victory - gets a free
ride in the same class but does draw Post 8 this time -- he's very sharp, but could be vulnerable with the bad
draw. (2) ALWAYS AND AGAIN gets a pass for tiring at Chester last week after coming first over in a
pretty good field - overall recent form has been excellent, and he looms a real threat with the right trip. (3)
THE REAL ONE has been sharp lately, and has climbed his way up the class ladder...though without the
benefit of a win - couldn't blame anybody for giving him a shot at that 20-1 ML price. (4) NO LOU ZING
has too much class to ever just dismiss but he steps up in class of an "ugly" win, and may be vulnerable at a
short price (he does add Lasix, so we'll see if that helps him find a sharper effort.. (6) MACH N CHEESE
had been doing good work for his current barn before getting slowed by Post 8 last week - this draw is a
little better, but still figures to leave him in a rough spot. (7) EXPLOIT had this "Optional $75K claimer"
condition added for him, but he's missed 3 weeks and would be a bit of a surprise - especially since the
horses from this barn rarely perform whenever Bartlett opts to drive against them (as he does in here). (5)
AMERICANLIGHTNINGN was going well but comes into this off a pair of duds and a sick scratch -
prefer others
RACE 4 - (2) STEUBEN HANOVER finished well from an impossible spot last week after picking up
2nds in the two starts before that - moves inside, and we'll give him the narrow nod in what shapes up as a
pretty competitive affair. (1) BIG BAD SWAN has been solid lately, and gets Bartlett to stick with him over
#7 - very legitimate threat from the pole. (5) PLUMB struggled vs. 75s off the claim - broke in her next
dropping back down to 50s, but did finish with alert trot last week - can be a real player if the trip goes her
way. (3) LINDSEYS PRIDE was driven a bit too aggressively vs. the standout winner last week, and that's
why he finished 3rd (rather than 2nd) - he fits very well here, and would be no surprise at all. (4) NIGHT
FLYER K has held her own at this level, seems comfortable racing on or off the pace, and does have a
chance at the upset if things go her way. (8) LOS BALLYKEELAMIGO steps up after winning 3 straight -
he's probably fine with the class hike, but does face a daunting task from Post 8....prefer others for the top
slots. (6) HOBBS had really turned things around after a recent barn change but did struggle when bumping
up to the 50s last week - we'll see if he can rebound tonight, or if he may just need to be in a bit easier. (7)
BLUEBIRD JESSIE left quickly the last 2 weeks and that led to a 2nd and a win - faces a tougher task from
Post 7, however, while also losing Bartlett - leaning to others.
RACE 5 - (6) ELWELL was 2nd best to B LIKE CRUISER on 8/1 after missing 3 weeks - missed another
3 weeks to his last start as well, but did finish up well from an impossible spot - finally drops right back in
the box, and may be able to pull off the upset here if Kakaley can work out the right trip. (2) B LIKE CRUI
SER is riding a 3 race win streak and was re-claimed from his last by our leading barn - he's clearly the one
to beat, but he'll be a very short price & there are a few very solid players in here. (5) NOWHERE CREEK
A has been sharp for a while, and debuts for a new barn tonight while stepping up in class - may be sharp
enough to be a serious threat if things go his way. (3) MIKEY CAMDEN was racing off a bad date last start
and may have had a lot more than he was able to show (no real stretch room) - decent value horse to
consider, at least in exotics. (4) FOREVER FAV has now been claimed in 8 of his last 9 starts though he's
been a non factor more often than he's been a threat - definitely leaning to a few others ahead of him. (7)
DARK ENERGY N is a good fit vs. the 50s but he draws Post 7 with several sharp rivals to his inside -
probably looking at only a minor share tonight. (1) FINE DIAMOND just hasn't been clicking at all - wait
for a better effort before considering. (8) GLENGARRY KNIGHT N is the outsider, both literally and
figuratively.
RACE 6 - (4) CHANGE STRIDE N comes into tonight off a pair of 2nds behind a couple of razor sharp
winners - hard to predict his trip, but he can be very tough if it's a good one...and he always seems to be a
good price. (3) KEYSTONE PHOENIX went on a (predictable) blitz after moving to this incredible barn
and has maintained that outstanding form even at these high levels - hasn't won in his last 4 starts but he's
been right there each time...as he figures to be once again tonight. (6) ROLLING WITH SAM has been off
for 3 weeks but as noted in the past, this barn has excellent success with these types - he's been very good
in his last few starts, but gets a tough post for tonight - still worth including if the price is right. (2) FEELIN
WESTERN is a good fit with these, draws inside and gets Stratton back on board - his best effort can put
him right there on the wire. (8) MOTIVE HANOVER was an ok 4th last week behind a sharp top trio - he's
beaten these in the past, but has his work cut out for him from Post 8 -- maybe can grab a small piece? (5)
PERFECTLY CLOSE went a few big miles recently but seems to have leveled off a bit - he's in tough here,
and likely looking at only a minor share. (1) QUALITY BUD had success in his last couple facing much
cheaper, but still needs to prove he can hang with them at this level - rail helps, but still prefer others. (7)
BELTANE A handled much easier 2 and 3 back but does seem a bit overmatched against these
RACE 7 - (5) BENJIS BEST had been on amazing tear since returning to YR, winning 4 straight before a
close 2nd to a red-hot BARBADOS - was off 3 weeks to his last and can be forgiven for not being able to
do too much into a very fast mile (paced his own 3rd quarter in :27 and just couldn't gain) - gets right back
in the box, drops back down to 50s, and may be ready to deliver another big effort. (4) BALLERAT BOO
MERANG is looking for 3 in a row and will probably be favored to do so - pretty hard to leave him off
your tickets. (2) MACINTOSH N finished just behind #4 last time, dead-heating for 2nd after blasting from
Post 8 - has to be seen as a viable threat with the move inside. (1) BLUEBIRD RECON has been a force to
be reckoned with in 40s but he exits a barn that consistently wins about 1/3 of their starts, and tries to tackle
the 50s tonight - hard to say if he'll be as effective. (3) BECKHAMS Z TAM scored off the claim over
cheaper last week, but he should fit well in 50s too - include underneath in exotics (7) TIN ROOF RAIDER
A sharpened vs. cheaper at Pocono then raced very well last week in his YR return, finishing right behind
#3 - tough post moving up in class here. (8) MANKAT couldn't reach from a similar spot last week but did
finish ok - would prefer to wait for a better draw before jumping back on his team (6) ROCKIN JUKEBOX
struggled in his last couple, and lands a poor post for tonight - sticking with others.
RACE 8 - (1) BEE TWO BEE may or may not win this race, but it's simply unfathomable that he was
ASSIGNED the rail (after being right there 3rd in his last Open attempt), while other clearly less
accomplished rivals were forced to draw for posts 2-7 - we'll see if he's able to cash in on this "gift" from
the race office. (4) RED RIGHT HAND is a proven player at the Open level and draws well enough to be
handled aggressively tonight - seems the main danger. (7) ANOTHTMASTRPIECE N has been very sharp
for some time, and the classy import has proven himself at this level - the combination of being away for 3
weeks AND the outside draw may hurt his chances a bit, however. (3) ILL DRINK TO THAT is pretty
good right now but steps up to the Open after losing in NW20000 and then NW30000 - maybe he can rally
for a piece? (5) LOUS SWEETREVENGE was a winner with Lachance 3 starts back but that was vs. softer
- sharp enough to contend for a piece, but prefer others for the top slots. (6) SAVE ME A DANCE ends up
with Post 6 despite being away since May, and not even racing at this level before the time off - hails from
a very live barn, but still seems unlikely for tonight. (2) FAMILY RECIPE was a non factor in both Open
tries - at least he drew Post 2 (after being lumped into the 2-7 draw).
RACE 9 - (3) SKY CASTLES landed on a tough trip dropping to 75s two back and came up just short of
beating #1 - came back to win his last easily, and we'll see if he can exact some revenge on his main foe this
time around. (1) IN MY DREAMS came up 2nd best in his first try off the claim but scored a very
impressive win over #3 last time, picking up a new lifetime mark in his 147th career start - would be no
surprise if he was able to pull it off once again. (7) SMALLTOWNTHROWDOWN came up 2nd best to
the top choice last time, holding well right to the end - has the speed to overcome the outside draw, and can
definitely be used underneath in exotics. (8) FOR A DREAMER tries the 75s tonight for his new barn after
beating the 50s (easily) in his last pair - he'll need to float out of there and hope for a good early spot to
have any real chance of being a serious player from Post 8. (4) HOMER HALL worked out a nice trip last
time and picked up a decent 4th - chance for another small share tonight. (2) LOOK IN MY EYES was
good in July after the claim but does seem to be regressing - we'll see if he can turn things back around, and
come up with a better showing tonight. (6) BIZET drew his first poor post in a while last week and was no
factor - may suffer the same fate from Post 6 tonight. (5) SO LONG HANOVER seems a bit overmatched
in his current form
RACE 10 - Tough finale - (4) PADUKA N had to work a bit to finally make the lead last week but was still
able to dig in strong through the lane to win off the class drop - bumps up a notch here, but still may have
another win in him. (3) THE REGULATOR failed to fire off the class drop to NW15000 two back -
dropped to NW10000 last week and raced well...but still came up a little short at the end - he's a very
logical threat here, but don't be too quick to take a short price tonight. (2) SARANAC BLUE CHIP took off
the gate from bad posts in his last pair and finished well back....but that doesn't mean he won't be blasting
hard from the inside tonight - he beat #3 just 4 starts back, so perhaps he deserves a look tonight (assuming
the price is decent). (6) LONG WEEKEND A was a solid 3rd three back then beat this class the next week
- got rough on the final turn and tired last week (NW20000) but drops back down and is listed at 9-1 ML -
worth a play? (1) MACHEASY A was no factor on the class hike last week but also was in a bad spot -
could see him racing much better from the pole tonight. (5) BIG SIR seems to need to be in easier these
days - he wouldn't be a shock, but he'll really need to up his game for even a chance in here. (8) UNCLE
JORD A rebounded from a disappointing try 2 back with a better effort last week - but still seems up
against it from all the way out here. (7) VIVA LAS VEGAS N picked up a 5th last week and that bumped
him out of the easier NW10000 class - seems buried from Post 7 at this level