The Empire Report - Thursday, March 9, 2023 - Race Analysis
RACE 1 - (4) MAJOR BATTLE shows a useful qualifier (with her trainer on board) in preparation for her
first start of the year - hard to say if she'll be wound tight enough to win right off the bat but since her main
rivals do seem at least a bit vulnerable, she may be worth a stab tonight. (1) WESTBEACH had a useful
tightener 2 back then ran into a very tough in her next (caught out on the rim from the back into a sharp 3rd
panel) - she's logically the one to beat from the pole tonight, but she also figures to be significantly overbet.
(6) THE PANTHEIST A picked up a 3rd in her local debut but she could have been a little sharper at the
end- gets a tough draw for tonight but still would be worth considering on top if the price is right. (2) PULL
ME THROUGH moves up in class after a pair of 3rds - she's racing ok these days, and the inside draw puts
her in play for a piece tonight as well. (3) PROTECT BLUE CHIP hasn't won recently but a string of board
finished has seen her climb the ladder a bit - chance for small share, with another easy trip. (5) SPORTS FL
IX was off a month to her last and it showed - good to see her right back in the box, but still a guessing
game as to what we'll get from her. (7) TOBAGO TIME comes into this off a dismal performance, and
lands outside - tough week to hop on her team. (8) ALWAYS BE TRUE is the outsider - literally!
RACE 2 - Good race! (3) C YOU AGAIN DK, owned and trained by our leading conditioner, keeps
getting better with every U.S. start- charged home effortlessly with Zeron to beat a bit softer last week, and
the pair will stay together for tonight- gets a narrow edge in a field with several possible winners (6)
TIMESTORM made up a ton of ground from the half last week to be a close up 3rd - he has 2 recent wins
at this level, and the short field should keep him fairly close to the action - should offer some decent value
from this spot. (5) HOOLIE N HECTOR always had ability but the 5YO is in career form right now,
stepping up in class off a pair of dead game victories (including one over the top choice) - he'll likely have
to race from off the pace here, but he's shown he can do that too - possibility. (2) KENZIESKY HANOVER
returns to her favorite pilot after breaking in the two hole last week - always a solid threat against these
types, although not as many recent wins as she'd normally have. (1) INFINITY STONE was overmatched
in the Open last week - may still be a bit overmatched here too, but his barn has been too good lately to just
ignore. (4) GEMOLOGIST has been terrific for a long time, but did make an uncharacteristic miscue last
week - this is a tougher overall field than he's used to facing, so insist on a nice price if trying him on top
RACE 3 - NAADA Amateur Spring Series: (4) DARK POOL won 10 of 30 starts last year and he's also
won 11 of 26 local starts over the prior 2 seasons - he can handle any trip that comes his way, and drops
right back in the box after missing a month to his last start (but still finishing a tight 3rd) - we'll go with him
on top tonight. (1) WINNERESS only won 1 of 10 local starts last year but hit board in 8 of his 9 losses -
he's looking at a good trip tonight for one of the top amateur pilots, but that 7/5 ML price suggests there
could be better wagering value with a couple of others! (5) TRUMP THIS absolutely crushed a Fhd. field
on 1/28 with a crisp 1:57.2 mile- clearly had some issue in that next start, then never saw the pylons in his
next 2 outings - if he can find a better trip here, he has a chance to score a mild upset. (2) K J KYRA has
speed, stays trotting, and has been ultra consistent at Monti - gets a strong amateur driver for tonight, and
could be a very live player from this spot. (7) TURBOCHARGEDPETE was struggling to stay trotting for
some time but he behaved in his last pair and was rewarded with a win and a 2nd - will need all kinds of
trip luck from out here, but he's not a bad one for longshot fans to consider. (6) RACEACE has a solid YR
history and his recent upstate form is pretty steady - will need things to really fall in place from this tough
spot, however. (3) JEYKIL N HYDE has mixed recent form at best, but his young pilot has won some races
since beginning to hop in the bike - leaning to others, but wouldn't be shocked if he raced well here. (8)
JUDGE KEN is struggling and lands all the way outside - will likely need to wait for a better spot
RACE 4 - (2) STORMY KROMER had another stellar season at age 8 (28-11-3-6 $251K) and his qualifier
suggests he'll be ready to roll right off the bench - hard to resist giving him a shot at that 6-1 ML price. (7)
NOWS THE MOMENT has been in career form for some time, and comes into this off a trio of very sharp
victories - he MAY not be able to make the lead as reasonably tonight, and we'll see how he handles it (if
that happens) - hard to leave off the ticket, but MAY be at least a little vulnerable here. (5) HEY LIVVY
has been very consistent, finishing 2nd in her last 3 starts (twice to #7) - if things get a little hot up front,
Stratton may be able to time her rally just right...with a chance at the top prize. (6) HL REVADON finished
3 in his last pair, and has slipped just a notch from his peak form - he could bounce back with a big one at
any time, and don't dismiss him too quickly! (1) P L OSCAR served notice on 2/15 that he was ready to
step things up (after a BIG recovery from an early miscue)- he went out to take his next, before just missing
in a big effort last week - seems like he may be in just a little too tough tonight, though. (3) GREY grabbed
her first win of the year last week but was definitely helped by inheriting a BIG lead off turn two - seems a
bit below a few of the top players in here. (4) LEAN HANOVER is likely hoping for minor scraps tonight
RACE 5 - (5) THUNDRA is as unreliable as they come but she went a good mile when 2nd three back (the
winner has been very sharp since then), and a similar effort may give her a chance at the mile upset, in what
may be a wide open race. (1) DBLDELITEBRIGADE N was sent off as the odds on choice in her 2nd start
off the layoff, sat a two hole trip but came up weak into the stretch, finishing a disappointing 4th - maybe
tonight's the night she'll show up closer to her "good" self, but she'll likely be the heavy choice once more,
and MAY just be vulnerable right now. (2) LITTLE HONEYBADGER can be pretty in and out but she
rallied nicely for 2nd off an easy trip 2 back, and may be able to be a late threat tonight with a similarly
easy journey. (3) POPPY DRAYTON N has some uninspiring recent form but she seems to show up to win
her fair share every year, and this is the type of field where she just may be able to do some damage. (6)
SMOOTH DEBATE N has been a major bust since arriving from Down Under but she was well meant 2
back (just missed), then just got too hot in the pocket last week and ended up parked after popping out (but
still finished 3rd) - may deserve at least a look at that 20-1 ML price. (7) FIRSTUP seemed to really perk
up for her new connections in February but was scratched sick from her last, and draws post 7 tonight -
another longshot worthy of consideration. (4) BOTTOMOFTHENINTH just seems to lose interest almost
every week, then finds her best stride well after the fact - hard to get excited about her when she figures to
be fairly well backed.
RACE 6 - (4) ON HIGHER GROUND got the only possible trip that could get him beat on 2/15 and
confirmed that with his field-sweeping victories the last 2 weeks - bumps up a notch, but remains the one to
beat in his current raging form. (5) PROMISE FOR LIFE has hit board in 4 of 6 starts since arriving at YR
(with terrible posts in the other 2) - he's yet to find the winner's circle, however, and may have to settle for a
smaller piece once more. (2) HAT TRICK MARLEAU bullied a much easier field 2 back but was no match
for the top choice in his next, despite having the better trip - will need to find a bit more if he hopes to
reverse that decision tonight. (7) B NICKING is a proven player with this type and that qualifier suggests
he may be ready right off the layoff - hard to say how aggressive he'll be from this tough spot, however, so
perhaps check the tote board for some clues? (1) ETHAN T HANOVER didn't look too good in his first 2
starts back off the long layoff - returns tonight after 3 more weeks away, and we'll see if he's any better now
(3) MYCROWNMYKINGDOM has been limited to minor checks in most of his recent starts and it seems
like that's what he'll be battling for again tonight. (6) HUNTING AS lands outside after failing to threaten
at all in his 2 starts back up at this level
RACE 7 - (2) SWEET SOUL DAVID was in career from before a sick scratch on 2/3 - bounced right back
with a good effort (off a month) after sitting last, then raced much better last week than his line might look
(chased a sizzling 1:24, and really wasn't far off finishing 3rd or 4th) - he'll be a better price than his main
rival in here, and that makes him worth using. (4) OUTSIDE THE FIRE is now 8-4-2-1 locally, and comes
into this off an absolute blowout score for a barn that's really clicking right now - he's the one they have to
beat, but he also figures to be heavily backed! (6) BARRY BLACK was an easy winner down in class 2
back but came up big again last week, despite Post 7 - chance to be right in the thick of this IF Buter (in for
Brennan) gets him off to another good start (5) NO MAS DRAMA was hurt by poor cover last week but
also didn't look all that sharp herself - can rally for a piece with a cleaner trip. (3) LOOK IN MY EYES
adds Lasix, and that probably explains last week's poor effort - chance for a minor share. (1) VALI HANO
VER was no good at all in his YR return last week, and will need to be a lot better to contend here. (7)
BIZET figures to have a hard time getting involved from this spot.
RACE 8 - (4) CAPRICIOUS ONE didn't race at 2 but hinted at legitimate ability in his 5 starts at 3 - at
least whenever he was able to stay trotting -- got bothered in his first qualifier as a 4YO (after a long layoff)
but looked good winning the next week, and Kakaley does stick with him (over #8) - could be the one (if he
behaves), but don't take a short price! (6) SAID N DONE AS "figures" every week, is always right there
but just hasn't been able to find the winner's circle in a while- definitely a very dangerous player tonight. (8)
LONESTAR FASHION is another that HAS ability, but has had some breaking issues at times - looked
good on 2/14 (first start back, and adding hopples) then stayed trotting again last week, though only 3rd
best after chasing some quicker fractions - does have a shot (even from out here) if some trip luck comes
his way. (5) STRIKING COUNT disappointed in his first local start (for a new barn) but seems capable of
better - the price should be decent for anybody that thinks a much better effort could be coming here. (3)
WANIA is listed at 15-1 ML despite hitting board in all 5 local starts for a very talented barn - worth using
underneath, for sure. (1) SQUABLE remains the most camera shy horse around (1 for 53) but does grab his
share of smaller pieces - possible again tonight. (2) SV ROYAL FLUSH is just 1 for 48 himself, and just
can't seem to carry his speed well enough - prefer others. (7) LIVINGONTHERAIL is ok at times, but
lands a bad post after a sick scratch.
RACE 9 - Very tough to find a winner here! (2) VEL DONNA is 0 for 11 at YR but did race well in a
bunch of those starts - gets post relief, and her barn has been fairly live since the new year began - worth a
look in a pretty formless field. (4) BETTORSHIGHLIGHT N has done little lately and her barn is off to a
horrendous start in 2023 - maybe Yannick can drive her aggressively in here and make something good
happen? (1) COOLNCALCULATING N raced well vs. better 4 starts back but was "distanced" in her next
miles, and only a little better in NJ last week - barn is still looking for one to hit the board this meet...maybe
it can be her? (5) NITE TIME DEAL would be a threat here on her best effort but like barnmate DBLDELI
TEBRIGADE N, totally squandered a two hole trip last week - hard to recommend at that 2-1 ML price. (3)
LOOKATMYART had a career year last year, banking over $100k (most of it at YR) - been empty since
returning in 2023, however, and figures to attract plenty of $$ in this spot. (6) KATHYS MOMENT often
takes $$ but is 0 for 15 here over the last 2 years and draws outside. (7) E R HILARY grabbed 3rd thanks to
an easy trip last week but really hasn't been sharp in some time
RACE 10 - Solid field! (5) PRIMADONNA DEO wasn't serious in her only YR appearance last year (Post
7 in a race sandwiched between stakes engagements) but she was a talented 3YO and has looked very good
(across the river) to start her 4YO campaign - faces a couple of sharp foes here, but we'll give her a shot
(assuming the price is fair). (6) SWAN FLYER benefited when TACHYON broke in the pocket last week
but it may not have mattered - he earned over $100K at 3, and seems headed to a strong 4YO season too -
big threat! (7) TACHYON is listed at 15-1 ML despite being the odds on favorite in his last 3 starts (2 wins
and that unfortunate final turn break behind #6 last week) - hard to NOT include him on your tickets at that
price. (3) MUSCLE DAN keeps getting ignored in the wagering but continues to race well - good one for
the bottom of exotics. (2) DOWN THE PIKE MIKE has been solid for weeks, and now switches to classes
to face horses his age - another with a chance for a small piece. (1) CRESCENT BEAUTY has been "ok" in
2 starts back in 2023 - may be a notch below a few of these right now. (8) ADORE ME has ability for sure,
but is stuck with Post 8 off 3 weeks - may have trouble getting in play tonight. (4) GREG seems a notch
below these right now, but he has speed and manners...so there's a chance he could grab a minor piece
RACE 11 - (2) KATYS DELIGHT had some issue on 2/14 but seemed fined the next week (just a no
prayer spot) - gets some real class relief for tonight, catches a vulnerable field and seems worth a play. (3)
TRIZZLE TRAZZLE caught a very soft bunch last week and was able to dominate them on the front end -
this bunch is better, but not so much so that she can't have a big say here too. (6) REACHTHRUTHESKY
AS is the "x factor" - if anywhere close to her "best", she'd crush these...but her first 3 starts of the year
have been sub-par, and there's no guarantee that tonight's class drop will cure her ills - could go either way.
(1) MILADY DENVER A hails from an ice cold barn but she draws the pole with Bartlett, and does deliver
a few good ones every year - not impossible. (7) SOMESWEETSOMEWHERE was hammered off the post
relief last week and while she won easily, that very slow final half (and final time) are at least a bit of a
concern - not sure she's sharp enough to win from out here. (4) BROOKDALE JESSIE was picking up a
bunch of pieces recently - ok for 3rd/4th. (5) APRIL AVA has struggled in all her starts before and after that
"miracle" win (at 4/5!) on 1/26