Tuesday Empire Report

soaofny • July 27, 2021

The Empire Report - Tuesday, July 27, 2021 - Race Analysis

RACE 1 - (7) ROGER MACH EM was sent off at 3/5 in last off the big barn change and came up horrible,

finishing up the track...the irony is that this barn usually takes horses that AREN'T functioning, then

improves them 20 lengths in a week - this horse WAS racing ok, and somehow just didn't function for the

hottest trainer on the planet right now - deserves another chance. (3) GYPSY LEATHER has always liked

racing here in years past, and ships in off a pair of decent starts across the river - should be able to have a

say in his Hilltop return (5) AMERICAN NITRO rebounded from that disastrous effort 2 back with a better

mile in last (for a new barn) - definitely can be a player here, but that ridiculous 9/5 ML price makes him

hard to endorse on top. (4) D GS SHALLWEDANCE moves to a new barn, drops in class, and has a shot to

improve significantly in his YR debut - willing to include underneath. (1) MATT MAJOR wasn't "good" on

his last couple, but he wasn't "as bad" as he had been - not a bad week to throw him in for 3rd. (6)

VILLAGE CHAMP was a "pocket rocket" winner in last, but looking at a tougher journey tonight - maybe

a smaller piece? (2) PINE BUSH ROCKET was 60-1 in this class last week and not a factor - remains a

pass. (8) RAKSMACH didn't impress when last here in 2019, and draws Post 8 for his return - pass for now.


RACE 2 - (4) DEAL THE CARDS was 0 for 7 at 2 then went 0 for 7 at 3 (but at least picked up a few

3rds) - he's been away for a year, but he qualified back sharply against a classy old rival, and we'll take a

shot with him in this pretty soft NW1 field. (1) TRIBAL SPORT hasn't gone "fast" yet but the 3YO has

been improving every week at Monti, and ships down off a pair wins - have a feeling he'll be ok with this

crew. (7) ROSE RUN WOODROW was just purchased at the recent sale for $27K and goes from one of

the top barns in the sport to a small, upstate outfit - he certainly CAN beat this field, but he'll be a short

price from a bad post, and the value just isn't there. (2) JOSE shipped in off a Monti blowout win and while

he did finish 3rd, he really should have been 2nd - using underneath only. (3) HURRIKANEKINGCARLO

had things all his own way last week (while cutting very slow fractions) and still was blown away by the

winner - another that has a chance, but will offer no value on top. (5) PINEBUSHDRAGONROLL took his

last at Monti but in a slow mile - will need to be a lot better for a chance to beat these. (6) MR D DUFF was

winless in the Maritimes - we'll just watch, for now.


RACE 3 - (5) NORTHERN BACCARAT was handled conservatively in his YR debut and rallied very

nicely for 2nd behind a sharp winner - probably wasn't AS sharp in his next, but he did show some guts by

sustaining his first over bid into the stretch and rallying on by for the win - catches a pretty suspect group

tonight, and remains the one to beat. (1) MACHPHEUS shows a few good lines out of town, moves to a

barn that usually does well with these and also draws the pole with Brennan - lot to like, but also hard to

ignore that he's just 3 for 47 in his career - just tough to take him on top! (3) OLD TOWN ROAD gets his

first good post in 4 weeks, and his barn is going well right now - definitely can make some noise from this

spot. (4) IDEAL BEACH was able to get it done on the front end vs. a pretty soft group last week - this is a

tougher spot, and he's definitely not worth that 9/5 ML price (though it would hardly be a shock if he won).

(7) BEACH BLOGGER upped his game at Monti after moving to this barn but his 2 starts since returning

to YR haven't been great - will be more interested when he at least draws a better post. (8) SPINNAKER

HANOVER has some ability but never seems to be able to overcome these outside draws - waiting for a

better spot for him. (2) WHAT ABOUT BOB has yet to hit board in 7 local starts - inside draw seems to be

his only asset here. (6) PINEBUSH LIFESAVER just couldn't find a gear last week and now moves outside

- definitely prefer others.


RACE 4 - Good race, with interesting shippers! (8) COMMANCHE CREEK went nearly a year between

pari-mutuel starts with plenty of struggles in between...but he suddenly found his game and started to do

good things up in Canada, leading to him being purchased by top shelf local connections - has a chance to

beat these, even from Post 8 (and hopefully at a decent price). (2) KING SPENCER got post relief at Stga.

last start and crushed the competition - changed hands after that, gets a big driver switch for his for his local

debut and just may be good enough to beat these - we shall see. (3) PET SUR ROC is hard to gauge

class-wise off his out of town lines, but he certainly shows some good recent efforts - he's eligible to race

very well here with the switch to Kakaley. (1) BARRYWHITE HANOVER just missed from a similar spot

2 back, then was a close 2nd again in last, despite being used hard from Post 7 to make the lead - would be

no surprise at all to see him win from this spot. (5) ANDRES HANOVER was the pick here last week and

he was able to score at 19-1 - maybe he can do it again tonight but you know what they say about these

situations ("if you missed the wedding, don't show up for the funeral")! (6) DANCE IT OUT used a nice

trip to win his local debut, but wasn't as sharp when 4th in his next - he's a possibility, but definitely prefer

others this week. (4) MOMENTSTHATMATTER did win here last year, but is 0 for 12 up at "The Ridge"

so far in 2021 - prefer to just watch a start. (7) RAILIN JENNINGS hasn't been bad, but he's probably a bit

below several of these...and he draws Post 7.


RACE 5 - (4) QUATRAIN BLUE CHIP put in an excellent first over try for 2nd last week (to the razor

sharp winner of 3 straight) after dropping down to NW7500 - takes another drop tonight, and that stamps

him as the one to beat. (6) GODS SPIRIT N would be pretty tough in here if anything close to his best...but

his last couple of starts (particularly the last one) suggest that he may not be close to that form right now -

could go either way, and he's definitely the "x factor" tonight. (2) DARLINGS DRAGON used a fast start

from Post 7 last week to drop in 3rd, and take home a nice piece - no reason why he can't land another good

share tonight. (1) BUSH MAN N had no luck here in a handful of starts and he's winless (0 for 38) over the

past 2 seasons - he does seem to be coming around, though, and this isn't a bad week to include him

underneath (3) SOHO CHELSEAA has been a disappointment in his local tries, particularly on 7/2 (when

he had the lead and Bartlett, and still faltered badly) - still seems capable of a piece. (7) ARTMAGIC raced

well last week off the claim but gets no luck with the draw tonight - not sure he can work himself into the

hunt from out here. (8) BOURBONS COURAGE has improved dramatically in his last 2 (after a barn

change), but he's another that figures to struggle to get into the hunt. (5) BIG BAD BILL is just far too

unreliable, and lands in a tough field anyway - sticking with others.


RACE 6 - (4) CAPTAIN SLEAZE has 3 local starts, resulting in a win and a pair of 2nds to a couple of

nice colts - wasn't on his game at PcD last week, but guessing that he'll appreciate his return to the Hilltop -

the one to beat. (6) FOLLOW YOUR HEART is an interesting newcomer - Goodell hopped up on him for

the first time at The Meadows last week and was a 14-1 winner from Post 10 - it appears he bought this

horse after that race, and sent him to one of our sharpest local barns - absolutely belongs on your tickets. (1)

ART NUKEM has been racing well against more accomplished, older foes up at Monti - he should fit

nicely with these, especially from the pole - include in exotics. (5) CAPTIVATE HANOVER was handled

conservatively last week after a miscue the week before, but did finish with pace - could definitely make

some late noise tonight. (7) SARANAC BLUE CHIP drops back to overnight competition and he'll surely

appreciate that - he may not be thrilled with Post 7, though, and will need some trip luck if he hopes to grab

a piece of this. (2) BRAZEN BRAZILLIAN is good at towing along and grabbing small pieces - never a

bad one to use for 3rd/4th. (8) KEYSTONE NOLAN has been consistently solid for weeks, but may end up

being a spectator from Post 8 tonight. (3) L DEES JACK LOPEZ moves to a new barn and that might perk

him up a bit - his 14-0-1-1 record this year makes him a pass for now, though.


RACE 7 - (2) SEMI TOUGH had some life finishing in a good NW20000 field 2 back - was handled

aggressively dropping to NW15000 last week and went a big mile...but came up 2nd best to an even

sharper winner - deserves a chance to make amends this week. (5) LEVINE manages to be right there

almost every week, regardless of trip, class, time, etc. - he hasn't WON in a while, though, so we'll keep

him underneath only...for now. (1) FLYING FINN N was sneaky good last week after a no chance 8 hole

the week before - he's rock solid at this level, draws best, and should be close at the wire...definitely one

that belongs in exotics. (6) IM BENICIO A made a phenomenal turnaround 3 back after a barn change that

clearly agreed with him - was right there on the final turn last week when he made a most unfortunate

miscue, but it's good to see him right back in the box -- at 20-1 ML, he's a pretty good bomb to consider for

your tickets. (8) IM SIR BLAKE A finally put it all together last week, looking super in a sharp front end

score - Bartlett sticks with him (despite Post 8), but he'll need some trip luck to be a threat tonight. (4)

KNOCKING AROUND may be pushing it up at this level but he's undeniably sharp, will be a nice price,

and is another good value horse for the bottom of the exotics. (3) PAT STANLEY N flew home to beat

cheaper 2 back, then was an "ok" 3rd last week (vs. #8) - will need to be a bit better to be a contender with

these. (7) FLAMING FLUTTER N has been doing good work every week lately, but may find himself

unable to overcome this spot tonight.


RACE 8 - (4) REDBANK BLAZE A has been holding his own vs. much better, for most of the past 2

years - he's not really a "speed horse", but Kakaley will probably find a way to get this guy to the front end

against these - clearly the one to beat, but note that he's been away for 25 days before betting the rent

money (at a short price). (6) SUMTHINBOUTIM hasn't left the gate in some time, but this would be a

good spot for Brennan to take a shot with him - his form is sketchy at best, but IF on his game, he can be a

threat here. (5) SO MANY ROADS has held his own vs. good NW8 fields may times, so it was no surprise

to see him handle a NW5000 field in his last - he should have no trouble handling the class hike tonight, but

his racing style (sit back and rally late) may not work out if there's not much pace up front. (2) MIDNIGHT

LIGHTNING is winless here over the past 2 years (0 for 22), but he does grab good pieces in spots like this

- include him underneath. (7) TULLOW N had no prayer in last, but he does fit well at this level - the issue

is the draw, and he may not be able to get in play tonight. (3) SECRECY gave it a shot on the front end in a

blank field last week and was nipped late by #1 - moves up now, and seems below a few of these. (1)

DEEDENUTO A grabbed his first local win last week but used all of a perfect trip to nip #3 by a nose - this

field is just MUCH tougher. (8) YAYAS HOT SPOT N finally showed some life 2 back but was no factor

again in his last - Post 8 makes it hard to like his chances tonight.


RACE 9 - (2) JESSICAS BEACH BOY was improved considerably by his new barn last week, involved

early and then rallying solidly late to be 2nd to #4 - may be able to turn the tables on that rival tonight. (4)

LINNYCALLEDFRANKIE was a solid odds-on winner last week, dropping in 3rd then wearing the leader

down with a first over move that he sustained right to the end - he's now 3 for 3 here at Yonkers, and it

would be no surprise to see him extend his streak to 4. (1) DIAMOND HEAD paced evenly at the back

from a no-chance spot last week - moves all the way inside, and could easily pick up a nice chunk of this.

(3) SPORTY DRAGON tends to lag early, then finish with good interest - he picked up 3rd last week, and

may be able to grab a similar share tonight. (7) THOR AND DR JONES moved up to this level last week

and raced as well as he could from an impossible spot - it seems like he fits here, but will have to contend

with another very difficult spot tonight. (8) WELL DONE SON had been doing outstanding work for an

incredible barn, but definitely had some trouble with his gait last week - may bounce right back but even if

he does, he'll need to find a way to overcome Post 8. (5) ARTIST BEST crushed his rivals last week but

that was a pretty soft bunch, and he's stepping up in class tonight - we'll see how he handles it. (6) ILLBEW

ATCHINGU has only 8 starts this year and has struggled to get untracked - waiting for better signs before

hopping on his team.


RACE 10 - (5) THE REAL ONE didn't even pretend to be interested from Post 8 last week but did finish

with pace on his own - he's certainly not worth playing here at a very short price...but he IS the best of

these, and there's a good chance he'll be able to mow them down late if anywhere close at the top of the

lane. (2) WAR DAN A is the wild card in here - won here on 11/20 but then went on the shelf until May...

been slow to come around, but that last NJ start may finally have him tight enough to be a player -- but he's

another that would be hard to take at short odds. (1) LA PLAYER A has been a total bust since arriving in

the U.S. but eventually he'll find his level - drops again, draws the pole, and maybe this is the week he'll

finally show some life. (4) VANQUISHED N has been towing along for smaller pieces and may be able to

do the same here. (8) LYONS NIGHT HAWK actually fits very well with these and does have the speed to

leave from Post 8...he was scratched sick from his last, though, and comes into tonight having missed 25

days - maybe the tote board will offer some guidance? (6) DON DOMINGO N established great position

last week but really weakened in the stretch - just hasn't been on his game, and not sure the class drop will

be the cure. (3) HUDSEN A had some good starts here last year but is 6-0-0-0 so far in 2021 - sticking with

others, for now. (7) CLASSIC PRO was a winner in a soft spot last week, but this is a much tougher task.


RACE 11 - (7) SHADOW CAT won three races here in May and ALL of them were at higher levels than

this - he's been unable to really race aggressively lately (due to being up so high in class), but this could be

a spot for Siegelman to take a shot, even from Post 7 - not a bad week to give him a look. (1) DECISION

DAY was sharp last week, used early to make the lead, then sticking to the (sharp) leader through a hot

middle half before getting by late - the rail will be a big help to him here, and he does have a chance to

make it 2 in a row. (2) GENTLEMANJIM II IE looked like a winner at the top of the lane last week but he

seemed to keep lugging in through the stretch, and that allowed his classy rival to battle back and prevail in

the end - he'll probably be a decent price again, and he's not a bad one to include. (4) RUNRUNJIMMYDU

NN N has had some consistency issues lately but facing better - he does have 4 wins here this year, and is

eligible to perk up at this level on any given week. (6) THE DOWNTOWN BUS is definitely sharpening

now, but he'll be facing tougher tonight and he draws outside - using underneath only this week. (5) IM

SOME GRADUATE hasn't been close to his top game for some time, but will probably still take plenty of

$$ here - there's better value playing against him here, rather than hoping that he gets a wake up call tonight

(3) FULLBACK struggles to win vs. cheaper, so he's likely looking at only a minor share tonight, even if

on his "good" game. (8) MARCO BEACH is trying to find his form in 2021 - Post 8 won't help his cause.



RACE 12 - (3) HEAVENS GAIT isn't usually our top pick (because he can be pretty unreliable) but he was

VERY good last week, despite racing from Post 8 off a sick scratch, and he's still capable of some big

efforts when on his best game - there's a few good ones in here, but we'll give him top billing. (4)

IMSTAYNALIVE beat this class on 6/14, and it was his 4th win in a row (at that time) - been holding his

own at the top levels since then, and he'll be very dangerous tonight with a live trip. (2) BEACH BOOGIE

has been razor sharp in Ohio, even if vs. softer - he has an excellent history here, and just may be good

enough to battle these right now. (6) JOESSTAR OF MIAA looked super in that win 2 back but had to

back off last week (when a few others left the gate) and he just seemed to lose interest after that - hurts that

he's drawn outside 3 very tough foes here. (1) ANTHEM N does his best work vs. cheaper, but the rail draw

may keep him close enough for a minor share. (7) LISBURN would have a decent chance at a good piece

had he drawn inside, but may not find a way into the hunt from out here. (5) BETTER UP is much

improved in this barn, but probably in too tough tonight. (8) SKIP TO MY LOU could use a drop...and a

better post - tough spot tonight.


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