The Empire Report - Thursday, July 20, 2023 - Race Analysis
RACE 1 - (4) GOTTA HABIT showed potential right off the bat in his first Canadian qualifier (on 5/26) -
he's looked in 2 of his first 3 starts (made a break in the other), and debuts tonight for one of our top barns -
he's missed some time, but still worth a good look in here as long as the price is decent. (6) FIVE FISH SP
ECIES finished 3rd in all three local starts, finishing full of trot from well back last week - she adds Lasix
off that sharp try, and has to be given serious consideration at that 9-1 ML price. (1) POP POPS TOMMY
came into his last start with a 7-0-0-0 career slate - the public still sent him off at even money and with the
help of some breakers and an easy trip, he was able to pick up the victory- could be a bit vulnerable in what
could be a tougher spot tonight. (5) FLARES ZIVA tired on the lead last week but was also racing off a bad
date - could be tighter now, and goes with Lasix for the 2nd time. (3) CHEF ROCCO had no late trot after a
pocket trip last week but he's capable of better - may end up overbet tonight, however (3-1 ML, w/Bartlett).
(2) HL BALLERINA grabbed the early lead last week but blew up right after - jury still out on this one. (7)
MILLIONDOLLARIDE could only manage a no-threat 3rd after an easy trip last week - he was off a bad
date, but tonight's post figures to hurt, even tighter.
RACE 2 - (6) OH BOY was already sharp BEFORE being claimed by the hottest barn in town (they're
already 5 for 5 this week!) so it was no surprise to see him not only take his 3rd in a row last week, but to
set a new lifetime mark in the process - remains the one to beat, despite starting from Post 6 again. (5) ALL
CHAMPY has come up 2nd best to sharp foes the last 2 starts and may be facing the same scenario tonight
- rock solid performer almost never throws a bad one. (2) VALI HANOVER has hit board in 9 of his last 10
starts, with a break in the other - can never be counted out, and will probably even be a fair price here. (1)
MAX was unable to overcome a tough trip in his return to YR then had his chances compromised last week
by an early miscue - not impossible, but a few others just seem a lit more appealing right now. (3) DRACO
S was off the board for the first time in 6 U.S. starts last week and may need to be in just a bit easier. (4)
CAPSTONE seems a bit overmatched vs. this strong group of 50s.
RACE 3 - (4) ON HIGHER GROUND had a strong year in 2022 and is putting together an even better one
(so far) in '23 - he came up 2nd best to the powerful HILLEXOTIC the last 2 weeks, but gets to avoid that
one tonight - by no means a "cinch", but definitely the one to knock off. (6) STORMY KROMER had been
on a very good roll but wasn't quite as sharp last week - he can NEVER be counted out (15 local wins in the
last 2 years!) but he may be at a bit of a disadvantage with tonight's tough draw. (2) YANKS DUGOUT hit
board in all 7 starts this year and ships in off a narrow Pocono loss to the classy INCOMMUNICADO- he's
won here in the past, and we'll see if he can be a serious threat with the post edge. (5) SWEET SOUL DAV
ID has done a great job holding his form up at this top level - he's probably a notch below the top players,
but can still pick up a decent chunk, with the right trip. (3) MISSISSIPPI STORM qualified solidly after 5
weeks off - may not be quite at his best tonight, but we'll keep an eye for next time. (1) ETERNAL LEE is
a talented mare making her YR debut but will need to show that she can get around the four turns....and
hang in there with these top ones
RACE 4 - (1) PERRON is 2 for 2 since dropping in for the $50K tag and paid a nice price each time -
draws the pole tonight and the price will finally come way down... he remains the one to beat. (2) RIVER
OF DENILE beat the bottom class here (from Post 7) then hit board in his next 3, the last 2 a pair of 2nds in
quick miles at Chester- he just may be sharp enough right now to be close with these better ones, especially
with an easy trip. (4) GAELIHILL wanted the lead last week but finally had to drop in behind #1, tiring
badly by the final turn - he's capable of better, but would need to be a decent price to consider on top here.
(7) CANTKEEPMIASECRET has been ultra consistent for a while now, and proven that she can hang with
these - the post is the obvious concern, and she'll need a lot of trip luck to overcome this awful draw. (3)
AFTER ALL PAUL picked up a nice win at Plainridge but failed to build off that, finishing a dull 5th back
here at YR - needs to be sharper for a shot at a better piece. (5) P L OSCAR, like most of his barnmates,
has been throwing more bad efforts than good ones lately - sticking with others right now. (6) LIGHTFOO
TEDLEGEND could use a class drop...and better post.
RACE 5 - Wide open! (8) LYONS PRIDE is one of several horses to improve rapidly after joining this up
and coming barn - he made headlines with that 1:50.4 obliteration of the field on 5/12 (fastest amateur race
EVER), then made some more headlines when he won again (from Post 10) the following week - he's raced
5X since then and last week's 5th was the first check he's earned since 5/20...but he catches a very suspect
group tonight and as noted, this particular trainer/driver combination do exceptionally good work together.
(2) BRANQUINHO didn't race at all in 2022 and has earned $900 in his SIX starts in '23 - that being said,
he drops to the bottom, moves inside, gets a catch driver listed and if ever there was a spot for a wake up
call, this would be it. (3) RHODENA ROAD is having an horrible season so far but has at least hinted at
some life recently - wouldn't be much of a surprise against this struggling bunch. (6) ROSE RUN X CON
was very sharp for a while but then went south for months - has shown SOME signs of life lately, and is
worth at least a look at that 20-1 ML price. (1) SHARK PLAY not only hasn't thrived for our leading barn,
he's pretty much fallen apart since being claimed some time ago - hard to endorse as the 2-1 ML choice. (5)
TIN ROOF RAIDER A is listed as the 5/2 2nd choice and his form is less than stellar as well - another that
won't be offering any value. (7) CANTSTOPLYING is capable of miles that could beat these but he's 0 for
10 this year and nor hinting that he's ready for a complete turnaround. (4) AINT HE SPECIAL hasn't really
functioned since being claimed on 4/7
RACE 6 - (6) ROSE RUN YANKEE didn't show much at 2 but he's come back a much better horse at 3 -
picked up a nice win 3 back in his YR debut, would have been no worse than 2nd then next week if not for
a most untimely miscue then went just a HUGE mile in his last, never seeing the cones from Post 8 yet still
a strong 2nd to the front end, odds-on winner - obviously his price will come way down off that big mile,
but we'll stick with him. (4) CALDERONE is the question mark in here - started his career off strong,
winning his 2nd career start (in PA) by 12 lengths, and then taking his 4th start (here at YR) by 15 - gets a
pass for struggling a bit with stakes horses in his next few, but it's last week's "meh" 3rd that's concerning -
may bounce back and bring his "crusher" version tonight, but it's hard to bank on it. (2) CANDY BOMBER
has shown some ability when he behaves, and he was a first over 3rd last week in his Hilltop debut - could
be next in line, if he continues to behave. (1) SQUABLE is now 1 for 64....but the outstanding Yonkers
purses have helped him earn $81K along the way - always a chance for a share from a good spot like this.
(3) DECHAMBO had a program filled with "chicken scratch" lines prior to almost upsetting at 40-1 at Stga
last week - a similar effort could land him a piece here too. (7) IM AN ANDOVER has some ability but he
also draws Post 7 off a break, with his owner on board - tough spot. (5) CUTIECUMBER picked up a 2nd
last week thanks to a pocket trip from the pole but may not be as fortunate tonight. (8) WISTERIA HANO
VER moves all the way outside after grabbing minor pieces from inside posts in her last pair
RACE 7 - (7) HL REVADON was terrific here last year (after joining his current barn) and was just as
good early in 2023 - took some time off after starting to tail a bit and it seems to have really benefited him,
as he's 2 for 2 since returning - was a very sharp winner here last week, and gets the nod to repeat from Post
7. (5) WHAT SHOULD I GOO has been 1st or 2nd in 6 of her last 7 starts, the lone blemish a miscue on
5/25 - she was a no match 2nd to the top choice last week, but still has a chance to reverse that decision
tonight. (6) OUTSIDE THE FIRE is an outstanding 18-8-3-4 here at Yonkers, but while he does drop out of
the Open tonight, he's still facing a pair of "Open" rivals - we'll see how aggressively Zeron handles him
after a rare miscue last week. (3) SOUTHWIND ARTURO added hopples for this year and has enjoyed a
fine season as a result - moves up quite a bit after a fast closing 2nd in his last, but still may be able to grab
a share with these too. (4) UNEVERGONNAGETHIS looked very good when he first arrived for the
Brennan Series - was a disappointment in a few starts after the series ended, but perked up with a nice win
2 back, and an even better 2nd in his last - the 3 weeks off is a legitimate concern, however. (2) TORRONE
doesn't seem on his best game and is moving up to face good older horses- seems a bit buried. (8) NO MAS
DRAMA is in a bit tough AND draws Post 8 - rough combination to overcome. (1) SWISS HOUSE ONFI
RE is racing pretty well but really needs to be in a bit softer
RACE 8 - (4) TAKE A GAMBLE started off the year winning 7 of his first 8 starts - he's winless in his last
4, but he's been facing strong fields, from bad posts (and still managing to race well) - finally back in a spot
where Zeron can handle him aggressively, and we'll see if that gets him back to the winner's circle. (1) KO
MODO BEACH is having a tough time getting in a groove as a 4YO but he kicked home with good pace
last week and looks ready for a big effort - that 5/2 ML price (he was 30-1 last week!) does temper the
enthusiasm, however. (2) DP REALORDEAL was very good here last year but struggled in his local tries
early in 2023 - he's found his game out of town, and may be ready to tackle this solid bunch - consider if
the price is right. (5) ULTIMAROCA didn't even pretend to be interested from Post 8 (after the barn
change) but did deliver a pair of sharp front end scores since then - he's sharp enough to be a threat here if
the trip works out. (8) LOUS PEARLMAN makes his first Yonkers start as the 5YO is closing in on the
$1M mark - not sure how much closer he'll be able to get from Post 8, but these connections can never be
taken lightly. (3) GREG THE LEG was no factor at all in his last 3 starts after picking up a 2nd and win for
his current connections- leaning to others right now. (7) SOUTHWIND PETYR has improved considerably
since joining this barn but has also struggled from these types of (bad) spots in the past - not sure he'll be
able to get in play. (6) NUTTIN BUT FINESSE fits much easier - wait until he's in the correct class
RACE 9 - (3) DEVILISH HILL is 0 for 6 to start the year but he's been facing MUCH better, and just held
his own in the Yonkers Trot elimination and Final - reunites with Stratton tonight, and the pair hooked up
for a victory at Freehold last year - the one to beat tonight. (1) BAR COINS came into his last with a weak
13-1-0-0 record for the year, and looked like a 50-1 shot on paper...but in just his first start for a trainer that
has produced some incredible results with fresh stock recently, he was sent off at 12-1, driven like a 4/5
shot, and improved by about 15 lengths to score in a career best 1:56 - we'll see if he can replicate that in
Week #2 for his new connections. (5) CAL MILES N SHELL is really starting to figure things out as a
3YO, going some big miles (with his owner/trainer at the lines) - gets Dube on board tonight, and may
come up with a big effort. (6) WALOVER is a talented filly but made a break in her first Yonkers start - she
gets a big switch to Gingras for tonight, and is another that could race very well in here. (2) MATT SO
SURE is 25-0-0-3 here at YR - prefer others. (7) STRONGERWITHLINDY is racing ok these days but is
0 for 14 on the year and draws Post 7 in a pretty good NW4 field. (4) LONESTAR FASHION seems to do
his better racing out of town, and broke in his last. (8) HEADOVERBOOTS AS was actually very good in
his last, but draws Post 8, off a month, after a sick scratch.
RACE 10 - (1) FREQUENT IMAGE has some mixed recent form at Harrington and it's hard to gauge how
he fits class-wise here....he DOES land in a very shaky field, however, and is also moving to a barn that
may step him up quite a bit - gets the nod...even if by default. (5) LYONS PEGASUS looks like a solid
threat off his recent NJ lines...but he's listed at 8/5 ML for a barn that's just 1 for 89 in NY/NJ since 6/1, and
that makes it tough to back him on top right now. (2) MEMPHISTENNESSEE N was an ok 3rd in
NW10000 2 back and beat a NW7500 field in April - he may trip out here, and he's not a bad value horse to
consider. (4) PRESTIGE SEELSTER was hammered at the windows for his local debut (BIG barn change)
but was handled way too aggressively and never had a chance - could rebound tonight, and would consider
if the price was right. (3) BENHOPE RULZ N was sent off at 2-1 last week off a string of dismal efforts, at
huge prices - he ALMOST pulled it off, and we'll see if he can be a player here too. (6) LONG WEEKEND
A was a trip 2nd two back but has otherwise struggled for weeks - Post 6 won't help his cause. (7) GAMBL
INGTERROR picked up a pair of "trip 3rd" from good posts, but may not be able to replicate that from out
here. (8) ROCK LIGHTS doesn't seem likely to ever get near the action from this spot
RACE 11 - (3) CREATE MYSTIQUE was 2 for 2 here last December for previous connections - recently
took 3 months off then resurfaced with the Super Siblings - broke in her first qualifier (going w/o hopples)
but behaved and jogged in her next - strong chance she'll wire these IF she behaves. (2) TAP ME BLUE
CHIP scored a couple of upset wins over easier earlier in the year, and holds her own with these most
weeks - loses Bongiorno to the top choice, but can be a player with Marohn, as well. (8) MUSCLE DAN
was a game first over winner last week and still fits this class - if Brennan can improve at the start without
using him too hard, he could be a part of this. (4) BACKSTREET PLAYER fits with these but was off a
month to his last (and Post 8) and now has been idle for 3 weeks - a little iffy at the moment. (1) WANIA
was the black sheep of this high powered barn for a while but did pick up a couple of wins recently - his
barn hasn't lost a race yet this week...but this may be the first. (5) CREDARENA has 3 wins this year but
still is an underachiever - maybe a small slice? (7) EL MISSION GODDESS will have a hard time getting
close to the action this week - pass for now. (6) ER NO MORE has really been struggling for a while.