Monday Empire Report

apatchworkdesign • March 6, 2023

The Empire Report - Monday, March 6, 2023 - Race Analysis

RACE 1- Interesting opener as most of these are not on their best game right now: (6) SPLASH BROTHE

R was hammered at the windows last week in his 2nd start off the layoff, blasted right to the top, but went

offstride and had to be pulled up - the miscue was deemed to be equipment related, so we'll just excuse that

effort and give him another shot tonight, especially with the class drop and surprising switch to Bartlett. (2)

THE DOWNTOWN BUS was just a different horse during the time he spent with last year's leading trainer

but has struggled to find that form since changing barns to start the new year - he's been dull lately, but

perhaps the class drop and inside draw can perk him up a bit. (5) CHANTEE was sharp for many starts

after arriving at YR but then had to race up in class (from terrible posts) for a bunch of weeks - was just

"ok" with some class relief last start, but drops a bit more and maybe can rally a bit better tonight. (1) BRA

CKLEY BEACH was empty on 2/13, scratched from his next then had no pop last week - he drops and

draws the pole, so there's at least a chance for a wake up call here. (4) KERFORD ROAD was dull in his

last pair and he's also 0 for 22 here over the last 2 years...but he's another that may perform a bit better with

tonight's class drop (3) GARDYS LEGACY was just "ok" in his first 2 starts off the layoff (for a new barn)

but just lost interest in the back last week - not sure what to expect from him tonight. (7) NVESTMENT BL

UECHIP fits well enough but he lands a terrible post, and loses Bartlett. (8) VEL BITTER CHIP probably

needs an inside draw to be a player against these types.


RACE 2 - (5) BECKHAMS Z TAM seemed to be way off form but came up with a big one on 2/10 to

score at 33-1 (vs. cheaper), then proved it was no fluke with a strong effort at Pocono - his barn has come to

life recently, and he may be able to pull off a mild upset tonight. (6) DRAGON SAID finally was able to

grab a win last week after going down regularly (as the favorite!) for a bunch of starts- we'll see if that mile

gives the classy 6YO the confidence boost to take another. (3) OUR CORELLI N was under-driven 2 back

and had to settle for 3rd but raced very well in his next start, just missing to a currently very sharp winner -

the only knock here is that he has only 1 start in almost 6 weeks. (1) THE REAL ONE just hasn't been on

his best game lately but his trainer finally picked up his first win of the year last week, and maybe the rest

of the barn will start to turn things around too - it would never be a surprise to see THIS guy win at this

level. (8) SON OF TIGER N is definitely at a level he can handle, and also adds Lasix tonight - if you think

Stratton may take a shot at leaving for position, he's not a bad bomb to consider. (4) HICKFROMFRENCH

LICK has been relegated to smaller pieces for a while now, and seems destined to that same fate tonight -

needs to be sharper. (7) GINGRAS BEACH does his best vs. easier...and better post would help too.


RACE 3 - (1) GINGER TREE PETE is tough as nails when he's on/near the lead and that's where he'll be

tonight - he never makes it look it "pretty", but he does know how to find the wire when in contention

turning for home. (4) PICARD A has hit board in 4 straight while climbing from 20s to 30s - his quick

starts put him in position to be a player most weeks...and that may very well be the case tonight (5) LYONS

JOHNNYJNR is now 15-6-2-4 since arriving at Yonkers and is a weekly threat in this class - legitimate

threat as always, but probably will offer very little value as the 9/5 ML favorite. (3) STATE SENATOR has

a mixed bag of recent starts vs. the age restricted 50s - hard to be sure how he'll fare against the "open" 30s,

but he's a viable longshot if he shows up on his best game. (2) SOHO CHELSEAA would prefer to be in a

bit cheaper but the good draw at last gives him a shot at a minor piece. (6) PINEBUSH LIFESAVER has

raced well for some time, but has now gone 38 local tries without a victory - using underneath only. (8)

HURRIKANEKINGJAMES is good right now but couldn't last on the front end last week and now gets

stuck all the way outside - rough spot. (7) QUATRAIN BLUE CHIP was dull from the pole last week off a

bad date - inclined to just watch from Post 7 tonight.


RACE 4 - Several very sharp ones in here: (3) OSTRO HANOVER dropped back down to 40s last week

(he beat them in NJ on 1/7) and rallied from way back to be a fast closing 2nd best - he should end up with

a good trip from this spot, and should offer a fair price in a race with quite a few possible winners. (7) TO

WNLINE ALL GOOD has been sharp for some time, and was particularly good in last week's win (off the

claim) - hard to predict his trip from out here, but he can beat these if it's kind enough. (1) ELWELL built

off that 2nd place finish on 1/23 and comes into tonight having won 3 straight (last 2 at PcD) - pretty hard

to NOT have him on your tickets from the pole, but he also figures to be somewhat overbet. (2) CAPTIVA

TE HANOVER has been sharp for some time, draws well, and the right trip would make him very tough

tonight - he also figures to take plenty of $$, so note that he's just 1 for 19 here (last 2 years) before falling

in love at too short a price. (5) TIN ROOF RAIDER A gets a complete pass for his last (brutally parked by

the winner) but he won his prior two, and is listed at 9-1 ML - another that merits a good look in here. (4)

KEY ADVISOR is good right now, but jumps up to face a very good field of 40s - tough assignment! (6)

FOX VALLEY REN draws poorly in a stacked field - definitely leaning to others. (8) ROCKIN JUKEBOX

is the outsider...both literally and figuratively.


RACE 5 - (3) WALKINSHAW N isn't blessed with great gate speed but he can usually manufacture

enough to make the top from spots like this (and has the right guy on board tonight to help him with that) -

figures to be pretty dangerous if he finds himself on the front end here. (1) MONGOLIAN HERO N finally

grabbed a local victory 3 back vs. the 30s, then raced well in 40s and then 50s in his last pair - if he's close

enough when they turn for home, he can be a legitimate late threat. (5) B LIKE CRUISER had some issue

in his first start of the year but has a win and a pair of 3rds since then - he was absolutely huge in his last

(parked every step and still almost won), and he can be dangerous tonight if he can bring a similar effort

(with a better trip)! (8) ALEX TYE would normally be a quick pass (8 hole moving up TWO classes) but

he's been "sneaky sharp" for some time, and is a decent one for longshot fans to consider. (7) DIAMONDB

EACH started the year with a pair of miscues but has minded his manners in his last 3, hitting board each

time - tough starting spot, but if he can somehow blast to the lead he can be a big part of the action once

more. (2) GAMBLINGTERROR is probably pushing it up at this level but he has a knack for saving

ground and finishing well - chance for a minor share. (4) REIGNING DEO is generally at his best with an

easy trip vs. cheaper - will need much trip luck to be a serious player here. (6) BIG SIR has a few good

recent efforts but draws poorly for a new barn and he may need to wait for a better spot.


RACE 6 - (3) DELIGHTFUL DUDE N beat a NW10000 field here in Dec. then picked up good pieces vs.

better for several starts after that - ran into a tough trip at PcD last week (adding Lasix for the first time) but

could be a bigger threat tonight, with an easier journey - decent value horse at 6-1 ML. (4) SOUTHWIND

SANDOR was sharp in both starts after arriving from NJ, and may be in a spot to be handled a bit more

aggressively tonight - solid threat with any decent trip. (1) FOREVER FAV is often overlooked in the

wagering but he's a reliable late kick when the trip is easy enough, and that could be the case tonight - use

in exotics. (2) MARLBANK ROAD looked like a winner last week until getting reeled in late by the

persistent tripsitter - he's now finished 2nd in 3 of 4 recent starts, and remains a live player, even bumping

back up one notch. (7) SOHO LENNON A was a little disappointing after cutting the mile last week but he

did win the week before, and his overall recent form has been solid - tough spot, but he'll offer a good price

for anybody looking to forgive his last. (6) WICHITA LINEMAN has hit board in 5 of 6 this year but still

hasn't looked overly "sharp" - won't be easy to overcome the tough draw tonight, but always a shot at a

small piece. (8) GALANTE A is definitely feeling good right now, but may have to wait for a better spot.

(5) BRANQUINHO has been away since August - prefer to just observe, for now.


RACE 7 - (1) LOCHINVAR ART A was a $1M earner Down Under and the 8YO already sports a 2 for 2

record in the U.S. including a win here on 2/20 (albeit not much of an indicator after the :58.2 opening half)

- he'll face a tougher crew tonight, but he wins the draw and will likely get to call the shots once more - and

that earns him top billing. (5) COVERED BRIDGE has been sharp all year, and that includes last week's

close, hard used 4th place finish - may end up the lone leaver, and that would make him a legitimate threat.

(2) JACKS LEGEND N only made 3 starts after moving to this high powered barn then was freshened up

for a couple of months - he'll likely race somewhat conservatively tonight, but that doesn't mean the classy

9YO can't make his presence felt at the end. (4) LOUS SWEETREVENGE was making his first start of the

year last week but did finish alertly right behind the top ones - he should be a decent price here, and MAY

be able to rally late for a piece...with the right trip. (7) MOONSHINE KISSES has been very sharp at Stga.

for a long time, but was just as good when he won HERE on 1/30 - he's proven he can go with these, but

the draw does put him at a major disadvantage. (3) CERTIFIABLE was claimed by a barn that routinely

picks horses up dramatically right off the bat....so it was no surprise to see him go out and crush his rivals

in that first start - takes an ambitious jump up to the open here, and we'll see if he can hang with these too.

(6) OAKWOODINTOWNIT IR came up a little light in the pocket 2 back but folded badly on the lead last

week - guessing we'll see a pretty conservative approach from this spot tonight.


RACE 8 - (1) LEONIDAS A now has TWENTY wins from his last 34 local starts, thanks to last week's

jogburger out of the two hole - he ends up drawing the pole tonight and while he surely won't offer any

value, the road to the winner's circle surely goes through him. (2) THE IDEAL DANCER A has raced well

in every start since arriving at Yonkers, and has proven to be quite an astute purchase- gets a new pilot here

but still figures to land in the exotics with any decent trip. (3) PRICELESS BEACH is a very nice horse so

it was no shock to see him win last week (from Post 6) -- but the 30-1 payoff WAS definitely surprising -

he'll be a LOT shorter tonight and while another win is hardly impossible, you know what they say about

missing the wedding! (4) FUNATTHEBEACH N was caught in the back last week and saw his 4 race win

streak come to an end - may be faced with a similar dilemma if he doesn't leave the gate tonight - prefer his

inside foes a bit more. (5) ANOTHRMASTRPIECE N has been away since September and lands outside of

4 classy rivals - good week to just keep an eye on him.


RACE 9 - (2) BAD TO THE BONE N has been sharp for several weeks, and that includes his last couple

(stuck first over to a pair of Open horses) - good draw, and due for an easier trip - worth a good look at that

6-1 ML price. (6) CASUAL COOL came back sharp after a few months off, pacing 1:50 when 3rd at The

Swamp (behind NICHOLAS BEACH) - was scr. sick from his next but still was able to come back and win

at PcD last week - he's no stranger to the Yonkers winner's circle, and has a chance to get there tonight. (1)

ARDEN MESSI N was unable to rally in a fast mile 2 back but did kick home nicely to win his last - he's

up in class here, but Bartlett gives him a vote of confidence...possibility .(3) GENIUS MAN held on to beat

a bit lesser last week but also beat this class handily back in Nov. - barn going strong now, and this guys is

worth considering at the right price. (8) SEMI TOUGH drops from the Open but his last couple suggest that

his recent form spree may be ending - would need a good price to use him from out here. (7) BLANK STA

RE didn't fire in his last couple but he did report home a winner 3 starts down - leaning towards others, but

that 20-1 ML price makes him worth at least a look. (4) AMERICANLIGHTNINGN hasn't always looked

great at the ends of his recent miles but he's managed to compile a pretty nice record since late last year -

won't sat he CAN'T beat these, but also have to believe that losing Bartlett is going to hurt his chances. (5)

IGNATIUS A has been no threat at Fhd. in a pair of starts this year - sticking with others.


RACE 10 - Good race! (1) MOONLIGHT SHADOW took off the gate last week and had no prayer, pacing

a back half in :54.1 just to earn a 5th place check - he'd been in career form for weeks just prior to that, and

tonight's move into claimers (along with drawing the pole) may see him get back to that stellar form - one

of MANY possible winners in here. (4) LONG WEEKEND A has now been 2nd in FIVE straight starts,

racing well every time - goes for his 4th new barn in 4 weeks, and maybe this will be the winning combo?

(2) BALLERAT BOOMERANG returned from NJ and promptly wired the field in his last pair - he exits

our leading barn, but lands with a trainer who has been doing outstanding work for the past few months -

may be able to keep the ball rolling. (5) QUALITY BUD can go with these when sharp, and the 10YO is on

his game right now - was a determined winner last week, and the right trip would make him a threat tonight

too. (7) MOTIVE HANOVER has been sharp ever since returning from a layoff in November - draws

outside a bunch of sharp foes but IF the race somehow plays out to his favor, he CAN beat these even from

out here. (3) THRASHER was very sharp (with a bit easier) to close out 2022 and has looked good in his 2

starts since returning - may be a notch below a few of the top ones, but he's still worth considering at what

figures to be a good price (8) DELIGHTFUL TERROR was a perfect trip winner on 1/23 but has continued

to race well since then - will have a tough time reaching tonight, however. (6) RUNRUNJIMMYDUNN N

transformed into a beast after joining last year's leading barn but like many of his stablemates, hasn't been

able to function at anything close to that level since moving on to another barn.


RACE 11 - (2) BEE TWO BEE had a nice tightener in PA off the layoff then gave it a big try in his local

return, coming first over in the Open and only get nailed late after going by the leader into the stretch - gets

class relief for tonight, and a post edge over his main foes- the one to knock off. (8) ROCKIN WITHELVIS

A raced well in all 3 local starts and may be a very nice horse - he was the heavy favorite last week when

the remainder of the card got canceled (due to the snow and deteriorating track conditions), but lands in a

much tougher spot tonight - he'll be a nice price if you want to stay on board his team! (4) UNDRTHSOUT

HRNSUN N came up super upon arrival from The Swamp last start, and gets a nice draw for tonight - he'll

be class tested, but just may be up for a big one against these too. (6) LOORRIM LAKE A was no factor in

NJ in his first U.S. start but was a well bet 2nd the next week - he has some solid Down Under credentials,

and perhaps the tote board will offer some clues about his chances in his Hilltop debut. (3) PYRO delivered

an eye opening 1:51 blowout 2 back, followed by last week's more typical 1:53.1 score - he may be able to

be a threat to these too in his current form. (1) DEAN B HANOVER is good now for sure, but maybe not

AS sharp as his lines might suggest - still, hard to not respect his chances to be part of this with another

inside draw. (5) FEELIN WESTERN was no factor 2 back then faltered on the lead in his next - has been

away for a month, and just seems unlikely for tonight. (7) SMOKIN BY N found his form at the lower

levels and was able to climb back up the ladder - no factor in his last, though, and draws poorly tonight.


RACE 12 - (5) VELOCITY KOMODO took some solid tote action last week and responded with his

sharpest mile of the year, a powerful 2 move victory - he bumps back up a notch but if he shows up as

sharp as he was last week, he'll have a solid chance to take another. (2) WINDSUN RICKY is also moving

up, and he's now won 3 straight - when he's sharp, this level is still well within his comfort zone - major

player, once again. (3) TIGER BARON had no chance in his last pair (Post 7, up in class) but his prior 2

were sharp efforts - gets Bongiorno back in the bike, and the right trip would make him a legitimate threat.

(1) NOWHERE CREEK A is moving up in class, but more than sharp enough to handle it with the inside

slot - he's pretty camera shy, however, and probably better used underneath rather than on top. (4) STRAIG

HT UP COOL seems more comfortable a couple of levels down - may be able to tow along for a minor

share. (6) BENHOPE RULZ N was able to wire a NW10000 field recently, but this field is tougher than

those - the outside draw is also an issue, and likely to limit him to only a minor piece. (7) SAVE ME A DA

NCE was able to tough out a win on the lead 3 back but didn't look all that sporty in his last couple - not

sure he'll be able to have much say from out here. (7) BLUEBIRD RECON is better than he was for much

of the latter part of last year, but still seems up against it from this tough spot - will look better next week

with a class drop...and hopefully a much better post.

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