Tuesday Empire Report

apatchworkdesign • March 7, 2023

The Empire Report - Tuesday, March 7, 2023 - Race Analysis

RACE 1 - (5) LUCKBEWITHALEX weakened a bit in the lane after his first over bid was repelled by the

sharp winner last week - his overall form since arriving from the Midwest has been solid, and this feels like

a field he might be able to handle. (3) RB rattled off a nice string of solid efforts locally before failing on

the front end 2 back, then lacking any real stretch pop in his last - this is an overall easier spot, and a return

to his better form seems possible....main danger. (4) SPORTS SECTION hasn't been bad, but he tends to

get hurt by his lack of early speed - if he's within range turning for home tonight, he may be able to give the

top pair a decent late tussle. (6) COMET CRUSADER N won his local debut as the odds on choice in NW2

but hasn't fared so well since bumping up to NW4 - the outside draw figures to limit him to only a smaller

piece tonight (7) R CAPTAIN HANOVER was a close 3rd two back but that was with an easy trip, starting

from the pole- he's another that will probably be limited to contending for a smaller slice tonight. (2) BLUE

OCEAN has some ok tries out of town but showed little in a couple of prior local appearances - needs to be

better. (1) MASK ON MASK OFF has mediocre form out of town and arrives tonight off a sick scratch.


RACE 2 - Short field, but hard to find a winner! (2) COALFORD BYTHESEA did well at Monti after

arriving from the UK, picking up a 2nd and a win - raced evenly for 4th in his first local try but did tire in

his next, after pacing a quick 3rd panel on the rim - hard to "love" his chances tonight, but the same can be

said for all 5 of these participants. (4) LUCKY STREAK shows some less than stellar form at RcR but he

gets a big trainer and driver change, and that could help produce a much better effort - worth including on

those angles alone. (1) VARNEY is now just 1 for 27 but he did pick up a couple of 2nd here a few months

back - this is a logical spot for a good effort from him, but he also figures to be overbet from the pole. (5)

THORN TOAD was a big earner in Michigan at 2 and 3 but hasn't thrived at all locally as a 4YO, hitting

board just once from his 7 starts - has a chance with these for sure, but hard to get excited about at that 9/5

ML price. (3) DEFIANT IZZIE has shown little in 5 lifetime tries...yet still wouldn't be a shock here.


RACE 3 - (1) STONEBRIDGE REX arrives from Canada showing a near miss vs. better 2 starts back,

draws the pole with speed, and lands in a barn that has done well with many of these types in recent years -

on the flip side, he exits a very high % barn, and also seems a bit more prone to 2nds and 3rds than wins -

gets a narrow nod for his local debut. (3) MACH N CHEESE should be tighter now with a couple of starts

under his belt and this feels like a spot where he'll be more aggressively handled - not a bad week to use

him on some tickets. (4) INDICTABLE HANOVER is seeking his 3rd straight after outrunning a couple of

easier fields the last 2 weeks - he may be brimming with confidence now and ready to handle these too...or

he may be just a bit vulnerable vs. this tougher competition - don't take too short a price on top. (5) JUSTA

LITTLE BIT A rallied nicely for 2nd off an easy trip 2 back then built off that to pick up his first U.S. win

last week - steps up tonight and lands outside a few main players....may have to settle for a smaller share.

(2) SAYING GRACE N raced well here in Jan. vs. cheaper but has struggled in his last 4 starts - we'll see if

the move inside helps at all. (6) KING TRITON A was a close 2nd behind #4 last week but seems to his

best racing on/near the lead....and that doesn't seem like a likely trip for tonight - leaning more towards

others. (7) LUCIANO N picked up 3rds in his last pair but will be hurt by the class jump and poor draw.


RACE 4 - (1) PJ LOU was well meant returning to Yonkers last week and went a big mile, leaving for a

spot then doing all the hard work wearing down the heavy favorite...only to get collared late by the easier

trip #6 - gets a significant post edge on that one tonight, and that may help him turn the tables on his rival.

(6) LOUS BEACH added Lasix 2 back and has been a new horse, winning both starts - was able to get the

better of the top choice in his last, but it'll be tougher tonight with the post disadvantage...may still be sharp

enough to pull it off, though. (4) HEART OF DIXIE was used harder early on last start then ended up

behind a tired leader to the top of the lane - will probably resort to his off the pace style tonight and that

may be how he races best....worth considering if the price is decent. (2) GREG THE LEG hit an easy lead

from Post 8 last week and became just another easy winner for our leading trainer (the only thing surprising

was the generous 9-1 payoff) - this field is definitely tougher, but this outstanding trainer/driver duo can

never be taken lightly. (3) DP REALORDEAL gets a pass for getting brutally parked two back but

disappointed again in his last with no real excuse - the ability is there, but he's just not at his best since

returning recently from a layoff. (5) BETTOR ROLL ON A was no factor in his last pair - prefer others.


RACE 5 - (3) TIME TO DANCE shipped in with less than stellar form but instantly elevated his game in a

new barn, winning his first two then finishing 2nd in his last pair, up in class each time - steps up yet again

off last week's fast closing 2nd, and may be good enough right now for a chance to beat these. (7) BUDDY

HILL is used to facing better and has the speed to improve position from this tough post - absolutely worth

including on your tickets at what figures to be a fair price. (1) ON THE CARDS N raced much better than

expected 2 back, finishing 2nd in PYRO's 1:51 mile despite the layoff and new barn - was ok from an

impossible spot last week, and is looking at a much better trip from the pole tonight- possibility. (4) SPEED

MAN N is a solid OPEN horse when on his game - was content to tour the oval from Post 7 last week (after

3+ months on the shelf) but is eligible to show up with a big mile at any time - check tote board for clues!

(5) THEFLYINGROCK is listed as the 2-1 ML favorite despite being a non-threatening 3rd vs. cheaper last

week - seems like there's better value to be found elsewhere...at least for the top spots. (2) ROCKATHON

has a pair of recent victories but vs. much easier - will probably be contending for only a minor piece with

these. (6) TWIN B HEART THROB has been good for some time but steps up in class tonight and will be

looking to rally from last - will need things to really fall apart to make his presence felt here.


RACE 6 - (6) BUCHANNON HANOVER has been holding his own in NW6 the past 3 starts and now

drops back down to NW4....where in his last start, he was a close 2nd despite being parked every step of the

way- not a good draw, but still a decent value play against these. (5) AMERICAN FRONTIER was 1 for 23

when he shipped in on 12/20- he was nevertheless bet down to 4/5 and crushed that NW2 field by 6 lengths

- has continued to race well in NW4, and looms a dangerous threat for our most potent trainer/driver combo

(1) BLACK EDITION N was an improved 4th in his 2nd U.S. start then followed that up with an even

more improved 2nd last week (to the sharp front end winner) - draws best, and can be a big player if he

improves even more. (3) HURRIKANE CHUCK showed some promise at 2, but made only 5 starts in a

troubled 3YO season - he's off to a good start since returning at 4, scoring the (DH) win here on 2/21

followed by a win in PA last week - definitely deserves respect, even moving up in class. (2) FLASH GOR

DON has a pair of even 5ths since arriving from Ohio - jury is still out on this one. (7) TWO FACED is a

strong 4-2-1-1 since arriving from Canada but was just an "ok" 3rd moving up to this class last week - not

impossible, but will need to be better to be a serious threat from Post 7. (4) AMBITIOUSBEACHBOY was

handled aggressively last week, stole a half :59 seconds and was able to graduate from the NW2 ranks- he'll

have a tougher time being as big a player with these, though.


RACE 7 - (4) BRAEVIEW BONDI A hasn't been on his best game lately but it's not likely he's been "bad"

- drops down to a level he doesn't usually see, and this is a good spot to grab a win, and perhaps pick up

some confidence - wouldn't bet the ranch on him at a short price, though! (3) THREE IN HEAVEN A was a

bit hot in the back early on last week and that may have zapped him of some pop late in the mile - he gets

both post and class relief here, and Siegelman has handled him aggressively out of town in the past - decent

value horse to consider in here. (2) KEYSTONE DASH clearly benefited from the time off as he returned

with a very sharp effort (almost nailing the favorite at the end) - was just an "ok" 2nd last week, however,

so it's hard to really know (with certainty) what we'll get from him tonight - inclined to include him in

exotics, but also wouldn't be shocked if he came up disappointing. (5) STRETCH THE LINE broke moving

on turn three 2 back and was very close to doing the same last week- the ability is there, but his connections

need to work out a few bugs before we see his best - would still consider if the price was long enough. (6)

DEETZY went a big try for 3rd at 60-1 two back and Holland liked it enough to choice off the WINNER

last week to drive him instead - gave way on the lead and weakened to 4th, and tonight's outside draw isn't

going to help his cause - ok bomb for 3rd/4th. (7) BETTORBUCKLEUP has a couple of nice rallying 2nds

recently but has his work cut out for him starting from all the way out here. (1) ADAM CROCKER A

squandered a beautiful trip when 3rd two back then was empty in his next - returns tonight after 3 weeks

off, and we're going to focus on others, for now.


RACE 8 - (8) CHUPPAH ON returned sharp after 2 months off, scoring a sharp pocket victory - she

WANTED to leave from Post 7 last week but was caught wide and had to grab up hard to last, losing all

chance - another terrible draw tonight but her price will go up, and she CAN beat these if Stratton can at

least improve position a bit - not a bad week to give her a try. (3) BETTER WATCH IT lost a heartbreaker

last time, her 4th 2nd place finish in her last 5 starts - she's going to get over that hump soon....maybe even

tonight? (6) LINE EM UP was able to run down #3 from the pocket last time and while she may not be the

most consistent mare on the planet, she does grab her fair share of victories - a repeat can't be discounted.

(1) STELLENBOSCH hasn't won here in a few years but she showed some better signs in her last 3 starts -

chance to grab a decent piece of this with some trip luck from the pole. (7) CALLMEQUEENBEE A seems

better suited with a bit cheaper but she's racing well right now and could be a good value horse to sneak

into the exotics. (2) CAVIART CHERIE appeared to simply not function 2 back but that effort was deemed

to be caused by an equipment issue - her next start wasn't very good either, and she just seems a little risky

at the moment. (4) ALWAYS B MIMI seems more comfortable with cheaper - would need a pretty good

trip just for a small piece. (5) NUTTINBUTTHEBEST is often in the hunt thanks to her quick starts but it's

the finishing that's a problem - she's also off 3 weeks (sick scratch), and that has us looking elsewhere.


RACE 9 - (1) CAPTAINS PLACE had no room to pace on 2/20 in his first start off the layoff, then had no

prayer from Post 8 last week - gets both a drop and the rail tonight and he figures to be very well meant

here - but that 2-1 ML assignment does temper enthusiasm for a wager. (2) SAULSBROOK HERO hasn't

really raced well (or even looked too good) in a while, but he's better than most of these and draws inside -

another with a solid chance, but whom is hard to get excited about at a short price! (4) MY ULTIMATE

STAR A is still seeking his first U.S. win, and is now 10-0-1-2 here at Yonkers - remains a decent one to

include underneath. (8) EXOTIC SAND throws some nice efforts and last week was one of them, kicking

home full of pace for 3rd from well back - will be hard to overcome this spot, but at least he should be a

decent price for a barn that's going ok right now. (3) ONE OFF DELIGHT A is no better or worse than any

of these, but he's 0 for 23 locally over the past 2 seasons - tough to use on top unless a pretty good price. (7)

RANDOM HANOVER has been picking up pieces at this level but will need to be better for a chance at the

top slot from out here. (5) YER SO BAD used a very easy trip to squeeze out a 3rd last week - does drop,

but still seems like he may be a notch below the top ones. (6) CAVIART REAGAN just hasn't been sharp in

some time.


RACE 10 - (2) SHECANDANCE N beat these in her first 2 starts of the year - held her own vs. (much)

better in her next couple, then came up 2nd best to the raging MILLWOOD BONNIE when dropping back

down to the 50s in her last - no such foes tonight! (4) PAIGES GIRL doesn't win all that often but she's

always good for a late rally - may be able to kick in on time to grab 2nd tonight. (1) SPITTING IMAGE

tried it first over off the layoff last week and deserves a pass for tiring late - could be much better tonight

with that race under her belt...and an easier trip. (3) HEY HEY DBAY is actually very good right now, and

does fit with these in her current form - good value horse to include in exotics. (8) LARJON LEAH was

freshened up after a rough outing on 1/20 and returned to be 2nd best to a well rested frontrunner - terrible

draw, but may still find a way to grab a small slice. (6) LAURIE LEE picked up a perfect trip win over

cheaper 2 back, but does tend to struggle at this level - the poor draw isn't going to help. (5) FLIP THE

SCRIPT was able to just get up vs. (much) easier 3 back, but remains highly questionable against this type.

(7) BALFAST N just doesn't seem sharp enough right now to make any real noise from out here.

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