Wednesday Empire Report

apatchworkdesign • February 1, 2023

The Empire Report - February 1, 2023 - Race Analysis

RACE 1 - Tough opener! (6) BIG CHARLIE MORAN has been away since 12/21 and isn't always the

most reliable trotter on the planet - he DOES have talent, however, and he lands in a pretty shaky field for

his 2023 return...we'll give him top billing, hoping he's ready off the layoff. (2) CIEL BLUE moves out of

"NWPM" races and has faced some solid rivals lately - makes his 2nd start off the winter break, moves

inside, and could be a much bigger factor this week. (1) JIVE NINETY FIVE was winless in 15 local starts

last year but faced mostly better, and did hit board 7X - he was a winner last week in just his 2nd start of '23

and while he's moving up a notch tonight, this field should be within his comfort zone as well - possible (3)

IM THE MUSCLE would be very tough with these IF ready but his barn is off to a 9-0-0-0 this year, and

we'd like to see some "life" from their performers before hopping back on the bandwagon (4) QUINCY

MARKET was a well meant, hard used 3rd off the hiatus but reverted to his lesser form last week - his best

effort would put him in play here, but that 3-1 ML price is unappealing. (5) MARION GONDOLIER has

been struggling, and is listed at 2-1 ML - this could be the week he perks up, but there's just better value to

be had with some others. (7) STICK WITH ME KID moves up in class and out to Post 7 after getting beat

last week (to #1) in a race where everything went his way - tough spot. (8) SECRET OR NOT picked up a

2nd three back but has otherwise struggled in most of his other recent starts.


RACE 2 - (2) GREAT SOMEWHERE scored sharp back to back wins (as the favorite) vs. solid NW15000

fields and makes a good decision to drop in for a tag, rather than being forced to really move up in class -

feels like a good spot to make it 3 in a row. (3) STATE SENATOR has been sharp in all his starts since

arriving from PRc in early Dec. - he handles any trip, and has a solid chance to land somewhere on the

ticket tonight. (7) COALITION HANOVER elected to drop in to this claiming class after a NW10000 win

and absolutely crushed these - things figure to be a bit tougher tonight, however, thanks to the poor draw

and the arrival of the top choice - can still be a big player, with some trip luck. (5) COLD CREEK FELIPE

struggled for a couple of starts after some big Nov. tries but reversed form again last week, and was a dead

game front end winner - loses Bartlett (to the top choice), but can still be part of the action. (1) YS DO IT

RIGHT shows mixed form out of town, and has mixed efforts in a handful of local tries as well - hard to

know what to expect in his YR return. (4) AINT HE SPECIAL gets some post relief and his barn is going

well - minor share? (6) ROCKYTOP OH OH has some ability and hails from one of the sharpest barns

around - tends to be his own worst enemy, though, and remains a risky proposition. (8) CAPTAIN T HAN

OVER figures to have a hard time ever getting close to the action from out here.


RACE 3 - (5) P C FREE WHEELING was very good last week, and could have been a lot closer if not for

some poor cover - she hasn't won in a while but this is a softer bunch than she's used to, and she's definitely

sharp enough - gets the call. (7) LINDSEYS PRIDE was usually outracing his odds (without winning) but

landed in a perfect spot last week and was able to pick up the victory - he'll still be a good price tonight,

and he does leave fast enough to create a trip for himself - worth considering. (1) MISSION VOYAGE

shows a lot of scratches and breaks on the program but also shows winning at Fhd. last week after adding

the hopples - definitely can be a threat here if he stays trotting. (2) AFTER ALL PAUL hasn't been on his

best game for a while but did come close in his last, and could land on a decent trip again tonight - possible

(4) UP HELLY AA has disappointed so far since arriving with that stellar Maritime form - always eligible

to finally break through with a big one for her highly successful barn. (6) INQUIRING MIND is hard to

gauge off his out of town lines, and his barn has been hard to read so far as they continue to ship in more

performers - suppose he could get a look if the price was long enough. (3) TESLA SEELSTER tripped out

to beat much easier 2 back, but still seems a bit overmatched against these. (8) MUSCLE STAR is the clear

outsider, both literally and figuratively.


RACE 4 - (4) GREG THE LEG moved to a barn known to improve fresh stock dramatically and this guy

became the latest example (running off by 4 1/2 lengths in NJ, fooling very few as the 1/5 choice!) -

wouldn't say he's a he's a cinch here by any means, but he's certainly the one to knock off! (2) ROSE RUN

X CON is now 9-2-4-2 since arriving on the scene and a threat every time he goes behind the gate - could

easily be the one if the top choice isn't as sharp the 2nd time around. (7) MOMENTSTHATMATTER is

another that's been rock solid week after week, and the only real knock is the draw - still worth considering

if the price is juicy enough. (1) THRESHOLD weakened a bit from the pocket last week making his first

start in 3 months - could be tighter now, drops in for a tag, and could be sitting another good trip - possible?

(3) HURRIKANE GEORGIE had an amazing 2022, compiling a 27-11-9-2 record - he did make a break in

his final start of the year, however, and also went offstride last week - seems a little risky at the moment. (6)

ROCKET RUSSELL was no factor in his YR debut but hails from a top barn and can't be written off too

quickly - we'll see how things go this week, as he drops in for a tag. (5) HELTER SKELTER seemed to

weaken after chasing the hot 3/4s last week - would consider for a small piece tonight, but prefer several

others for the top slots. (8) FORREST BLU comes off a pair of disappointing miles and lands Post 8.


RACE 5 - (2) HAT TRICK MARLEAU threw a major dud last week but perhaps the tough trip on the off

track took him off his game - he drops right back in to go, and anything close to his "typical" effort would

make him very dangerous here. (5) JULA MUSCLE PACK has been behaving lately and that last mile (off

a bad date, from Post 8) was better than it looks - have a feeling he can be a player here, but that 5/2 ML

price is hardly attractive. (1) LOOK IN MY EYES has been a little inconsistent lately but he did bank

$111K last year and his last mile was solid - chance to threaten for a barn that has been sending out some

live ones lately. (4) FULL RIGHTS was no good for a long time but reversed form with that win on 11/23,

and has been pretty good ever since - not bad in last (off the winter break), and chance to contend for a

piece tonight. (6) SWANSEA still throws some good ones but has disappointed more often than he's

delivered in recent times - possible, but does tend to get overbet and this isn't a great spot. (8) EMOTIONS

RICHES stayed busy over the winter break with a nice mile in PA, then was very sharp in his front end

score last week - class bump and 8 hole could be obstacles, however. (3) DAGON HANOVER has been

picking up smaller pieces since recently arriving and could be looking at similar tonight. (7) MALIBU KID

is another arriving for a barn that seems to have endless horses who made 35-40 starts (out of town) last

year, earning around $70-75k - guessing this guy is a little cheap, but we'll soon find out.


RACE 6 - (1) STRIKING IMPACT elected to drop back to the cones on turn three last week and that

gamble probably cost him a good chance to win that race (he got locked in for too long) - he's been good

for a while now, and this feels like a good spot for him to pick up his first Hilltop win. (3) SHIP WRECK

BEACH K had a streak where he just couldn't lose, rattling off a bunch of wins against this type - he

leveled off and has been picking up smaller pieces lately, but it's not like he's been "bad' - definitely a shot

to get back to the winner's circle in this spot. (5) JIM BLUE is better than his recent lines might suggest,

but he's been very hard to drive and his own worst enemy - if he finally goes off at a nice price, it may be

worth giving him a look (hoping he can relax a bit more). (2) STILL THIRSTY doesn't always pace as

"clean" as he should, but he was pretty smooth off the winter break last start and parlayed a good trip into a

victory - eligible for another good chunk tonight with a similar effort. (6) CERTIFIABLE seems a bit

camera shy (and doesn't draw well tonight), but still seems capable of grabbing a piece with a live trip. (7)

ARTIST BEST seemed short in his last and now lands Post 7 - wait for a better spot. (8) STELLAR YANK

EE has the ability to contend with these but may need a much better starting spot do so. (4) ONE LUCKY

DUDE was able to beat a weak NW2 field here back in December, but has to prove that he's capable of

going with these much better ones - prefer to just observe this week.


RACE 7 - (2) ALL CHAMPY saw his modest 2 race winning streak ended last week when he lost by a

head to a rival with a much easier trip - solid chance to make amends and start a new streak tonight. (6)

GEMOLOGIST disappointed on the lead last week (as the odds on choice, off the claim) but goes right

back to his favorite barn - the price will be much better here, and he's definitely worth using. (5) SWAN

FINE LADY had a lot go her way last week but that was still an 8 hole victory - faces tougher now, but her

speed at least gives her a chance at a good trip...and maybe a good piece. (4) BLUEBIRD JESSE has only

been able to pick up smaller pieces in all his recent starts and will need to find more if he hopes to contend

for the top slot. (3) IN MY DREAMS has too many good efforts to just overlook in here but he does seem

to be off his game right now, and others are more attractive at the moment. (8) BIG BAD SWAN was a very

easy winner off the hiatus but that was on the lead, from the pole - faces a much tougher assignment

starting from Post 8. (1) FASHION FOREVER raced in this class plenty of times last year and was always

overmatched - not sure the rail is enough to help him. (7) MUFASAAS was all out to barely win at the

bottom level last week - faces much tougher and draws horribly now....sticking with others.


RACE 8 - (1) PURE SILKY turned in an eye catching try two back and that's why she was (very overbet)

at 2/5 last week - she still RACED very well, though just not up to the public's expectations - the price will

be better tonight, and she absolutely has a chance to get it done this time. (4) FLIP THE SCRIPT was

shuffled on an off track (off a bad date) debuting for a new barn two back, then raced pretty well last week,

rallying for 3rd at a big price - the 5/2 ML price doesn't thrill us, but she does feel like a live player tonight.

(8) COMMANDER CATHY N gets the worst of the draw but is undeniably sharp - as long as the price is

fair, she's playable even from Post 8. (6) CAPTAINS STAR was totally ignored in the wagering after a

clunker 2 back but blasted to the top from Post 8 and ALMOST pulled off the 43-1 upset - obviously that

price will come way down now, but she still belongs in your exotics. (3) DOCS DELIGHT is a consistent

mare, especially with a good trip- another one to include in exotics. (2) BETTE TINA has been a non factor

in her last few starts - draws well enough for a minor share, with an easy trip. (5) CLEAR THE WAY just

wasn't sharp in her last couple, tiring off close up trips - too many other sharper ones right now. (7) RAISE

THE ANTE has some overall solid recent form the but the class bump and Post 7 figure to hurt her chances.


RACE 9 - (7) THE LAST CHAPTER is rarely the top pick here because he's unreliable, and often a weak

finisher - he also never drops down all the way to this bottom level and since he's listed at 7-1 ML, this may

be a good week to give him a shot. (3) EMPEREURTHEBEST FR wasn't bad in his first few local starts

(after arriving from France) but was just in a little too tough - he took some time off after backing up badly

on 11/30, and his return qualifier is hard to gauge as he was in with pacers - his barn is off to a very good

start this year, so perhaps this guy will be ready to deliver a strong effort off the layoff? (2) DOWN THE

PIKE MIKE was used hard for most of the mile last week and remained dead game to the wire - should get

an easier trip from this spot, and that could land him another good chunk. (1) BLOGMASTER was just 2

for 34 last year but he figures to get away well from the pole, and isn't a bad one to include underneath in

exotics. (5) ANDOVER CONTESSA shows that blowout win at Monti 4 back but was dull prior to that and

hasn't done much since - would need a pretty good price to consider her right now. (6) ELEGANT DULUP

IN FR was a big earner in Europe but yet to really find a groove here in the U.S. - his NJ lines suggest he

should fit with this crew, but he lands a tough post for his YR debut and others just seem more appealing.

(4) MARQUIS VOLO wasn't bad last week after recovering from a brief miscue but his class is still a

question - suppose he's not a bad bomb for 3rd 4th. (8) CAVALIER GEORGE draws Post 8 after being

away since 12/21 and figures to need this start.

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