Tuesday Empire Report

apatchworkdesign • January 31, 2023

The Empire Report - Tuesday, January 31, 2023 - Race Analysis

RACE 1 - (1) CHANGE STRIDE N has been horrible and might normally have been a "quick toss" in here

- but he'll be debuting tonight for a barn that has enjoyed almost unfathomable success since re-appearing

on the scene last year, and this 12YO did manage to bang out $158K last year before things turned sour -

might make a sudden form reversal for his new conditioner. (8) TWIN B DELUXE was Bartlett's choice

over the top pick. despite the difference in post positions - this guy has done excellent work here in the past,

and may be the one to knock off....despite Post 8. (2) CRUNCH HANOVER continues to drop down the

class ladder, trying to find the level where he can turn things around - this might be it, but that 9/5 ML price

makes him somewhat unattractive. (3) DESIRES CAPTAIN was in a no chance spot for his '23 return but

he was a winner (NW5000) right before the winter break - at least worth a look at that 15-1 ML price? (7)

LATE MAIL N ran into a buzzsaw winner last week but was actually an excellent 2nd best - tough post

(and camera shy), so consider using underneath. (4) KERFORD ROAD A figures to benefit from that last

tightener - another one to consider for exotics. (5) IM A GIGOLO N had 7 wins and $100K last year but

he's making his first start in 2 months, and shows a less than stellar prep - maybe check the tote board? (6)

LA PUDDIE A is hard to gauge from his out of town lines but he SEEMS a little cheap - prefer others, but

the barn has always been capable of popping big longshots at times.


RACE 2 - (4) SARA JANE jogged in this class to close out her 2022 season, making her 2nd start for this

highly successful (smaller) barn - she catches a very soft $50K division for her 2023 return and while it's

hard to know for sure if she'll be 100% off the layoff, we're still going with her on top. (1) ALWAYS B MI

MI looked short in her start off the winter hiatus but should be tighter for tonight - draws best in a soft field,

and should be a player. (5) BETTER WATCH IT bobbled after the start last week but recovered quickly,

pacing evenly off the bad date - makes her 2nd start with Lasix, and may be a legitimate player here. (7) PA

IGES GIRL fits well with this bunch but figures to be hurt by the outside draw - definitely playable in

exotics, though. (3) SHELLIE DE VIE can be inconsistent but fits with these when on her best game - the 6

weeks off make her iffy for tonight, however. (2) WOODMERE SKYROLLER was empty in her '23 return

then scratched sick last week - leaning towards others right now. (6) NORMANS MADELINE took no $$

and had no offer off the winter hiatus - inclined to pass once more, but will at least peek at the tote board.

(8) TOBAGO TIME hasn't looked sharp, and draws Post 8 once again.


RACE 3 - (2) EXOTIC SAND was in a hopeless spot last week but still raced pretty well - he's also shown

ability, draws much better, and Buter should know him pretty well after last week - chance for a mild upset

here. (1) ROCKATHON was sent off at 3/5 from a similar spot last week but couldn't last on the front end,

weakening to 4th - he does drop a peg and MAY be able to take these all the way....but the price will be

very short, once more. (5) NOTA REPLICAA has been better since recently adding Lasix, and comes off a

solid 3rd place finish last week - decent value horse to consider, at least for exotics. (3) KNOCKING

AROUND is just 2 for 51 here since 2021 but he wasn't terrible last week, and the good draw at least gives

him a chance at a small piece. (8) LYONS PEGASUS landed on a terrible trip last week but really wasn't

bad - he'll be a huge price with the bad draw, but isn't a bad choice for 3rd/4th. (6) BETTORBUKLEUP

was just 1 for 18 last year and comes into tonight off 6 weeks (and draws poorly) - prefer to just watch, for

now. (4) BRAZEN BRAZILIAN is now 4 for 86 lifetime, and would probably appreciate finding some

easier spots. (7) I GET THAT has been struggling for quite a while.


RACE 4 - (6) TWO FACED started his career in Canada with a pair of nice 2nds, followed by a win (as the

3/5 choice) - he lands in a sharp local barn, adds Lasix, and catches a field that should be well within his

wheelhouse - it's a little concerning that Bartlett opted for #2, but we're still sticking with this guy on top.

(2) WHAT ABOUT BOB has an anemic 1 for 47 career slate, and he's 13-0-0-0 over the last 2 years here at

YR - that being said, he moves to a barn that has an uncanny ability to improve these types dramatically,

gets Bartlett to choice off #6, and has to be seen as a potentially significant threat. (1) LYONS PRIDE got

rolling too late to threaten in his local debut and can't be written off too quickly - he's shown some ability in

the past (up North), and is eligible to have more of a say from the pole tonight. (3) RED RIVER SAL

shipped in from Monti showing good form, then raced very well in his Hilltop debut - can't be counted out

of this. (4) OAKWOOD VEGAS IR couldn't keep it going in his US debut but the UK import was used

hard for the lead from Post 8, and could be better with an easier trip - possibility. (7) AMBITIOUSBEACH

BOY picked up minor pieces in his first 2 local tries and can't be expected to do much more tonight from

Post 7. (8) THORN TOAD has some speed but seems unlikely to be a threat from Post 8, after 6 weeks off.

(5) BEST BETTOR has been away for 4 months and spots a 13-0-0-0 local record.


RACE 5 - (1) IMA HAPPY FELLA GB won off a pocket trip in his local debut but he was raging all the

way, and looked like a pretty serious horse - faces a pretty solid NW4 crew tonight, but we'll stay on board

his team. (4) RB has a strong 7-2-2-2 local slate and was a good 3rd (behind the top choice) in his first start

off the winter break - certainly belongs in your exotics tonight. (5) HEART OF DIXIE was 4th last start

(behind the top pair), but was coming from last early on- he's done solid work in his local starts, and should

be able to have a say tonight with the better draw. (3) LUCKBEWITHALEX did good work at the Indiana

fairs at 2 and definitely showed some ability at 3, pacing some fast miles at Hoosier - lands in a sharp barn

for his local debut, and is another to consider for exotics (despite racing off the layoff). (2) COMET CRUS

ADER N got it done as the heavy chalk in his YR debut but he was all out in a NW2 field - will need to be

better to be a serious player with these tougher ones. (8) AMERICAN FRONTIER jogged in his local debut

then held on to 2nd in his next after being blown away by the top choice in the lane - Post 8 may limit him

a bit tonight, however. (6) DROPTHERAKEFREDDY moves to a barn that's started off strong this meet

but those Meadows lines (for a top barn) suggest that he might be a little cheap - tough spot, as well. (7)

BRUMBY drops the Lasix after that didn't seem to help last week - brutal spot here in a solid field.


RACE 6 - (5) NOWHERE CREEK A raced well in a bunch of starts vs. better late in the year, and that last

mile was much better than it looks (he had plenty of stretch pace after being hurt badly by poor back side

cover) - he had some trouble finding the winner's circle last year, but he does feel ready to get his picture

taken some time soon. (3) RANDOM HANOVER was a close 4th vs. better in his local debut, racing one

class higher - could be a very live threat with that start under his belt. (1) GINGRAS BEACH ended last

year with a solid try, and raced well after the hiatus as well - he's another that's a bit camera shy, but still a

very logical threat from this spot. (2) IM A POWERPLAY A put in a good try at Fhd. off the layoff last

week and did win a race here last year - sticking with others for the top slot, but could easily see this guy

grabbing a good piece, with the right trip. (4) MONTY MONO won just 1 of 20 local starts last year but

did hit board in half of his losses - include underneath. (8) CAN B PERFECT is capable of beating much

better than these but he lands Post 8 off 6 weeks and it seems likely that he'll get a pretty conservative steer

from this tough spot. (6) BECKHAMS Z TAM backed through the field last start - waiting for a clean try

before hopping back on his team. (7) REAL LUCKY N was an easy trip 3rd vs. much easier last week, but

figures to struggle from this much more difficult spot.


RACE 7 - (4) ROCK CANDY seemed content to tour the oval from Post 8 last week off the class drop,

knowing another drop was coming for tonight - figures to be a big "go" from this spot, and he certainly has

the back class to handle these - the one to beat. (7) BIG SIR left the gate last week and came up 2nd best

from the pocket to the sharp winner - hard to say if he'll be able to get involved from out here, but his last

start with Buter (2nd on 11/8 to FAMILY RECIPE) was a good one - worth a look IF the price is right. (1)

REIGNING DEO seems to "figure" more often than he wins, and his last start was just "meh" - IF he brings

his best tonight, however, he'll have a chance to be there for a good chunk. (8) ESCAPETOTHEBEACH

went a big first over mile for 2nd to the sharp EHRMANTROUT 2 back, but trailed all the way from Post 8

in his last - he has a chance to be a contender here, but only if Holland can work some magic from this

awful spot. (3) MANKAT's only recent win was by a nose at the bottom level, but the right trip could still

land him a share against these. (5) VIVA LAS VEGAS N outraced his odds a few times last in the year and

does fit well at this level - he hasn't raced in 6 weeks, however, and also has his owner at the lines tonight.

(6) AMERICAN ZEST A hasn't raced here since 2021 and his current lines suggest that he may be a little

cheaper than these - his connections have been known to ship in and pop a bomb from time to time, though.

(2) SKIP TO MY LOU has been generally solid at Monti but faces tougher here, and is 0 for 19 at YR over

the last couple of years.


RACE 8 - Tough race: (6) ARDEN MESSI N raced well in both local starts (pair of 2nds) and his overall

form since arriving in the US is solid too - he'll be a good price in a race that's hard to gauge, and that

makes him one of several worth a look in here. (2) SETH HANOVER wasn't at his best in his last couple

but we know he's capable of better - good draw if he decides to show up with his "A Game" tonight. (1)

PRETTY HANDSOME had no prayer in his first start of the year after aborting his leave and getting away

last - he'll surely be very aggressively handled tonight, and he may or may not be up for it - be careful if

he's way overbet. (5) SOHO LENNON A gets his share of wins every year and he was "sneaky good" last

week - wouldn't discourage anybody from taking a stab with him at a juicy price. (4) FIZZING N has been

very sharp at Fhd. but this is a much higher class than he's normally comfortable with at Yonkers - not sure

if that fine form will hold up against these better ones. (8) FORTIFY just hasn't been on top of his game &

now gets stuck with Post 8 - he may have to go conservative here, and that would likely limit his chances.

(7) ST LADS STERLING gave it an aggressive try (off a bad date) in his local debut last week and came

up just a little short - would have rated him higher tonight had he not drawn so poorly. (3) JUDDY DOUG

LAS A has had success here vs. easier, but will have to prove that he can hold his own with these too.


RACE 9 - (1) ACEFOURTYFOUR ALEX was a solid 3rd in her first start of the year but landed on a bad

trip last week and never had a chance - things may work out nicely from this spot, and she could be a big

late threat if that happens. (7) DRAGONS LUCKY LADY has 4 starts at this level and she's won 3 of them

- she's hardly a cinch from out here, but still deserves plenty of respect...and is worth using as long as she's

not overbet. (4) BALFAST N was much sharper in her 2nd start of the year, digging in gamely for 2nd after

a first over a trip - if things get hotly contested up front, she could make a lot of noise at the end. (6) LINE

EM UP took a new mark in NJ 3 back, just missed after cutting the mile here in her next but came up a

little weak from the pocket last start - goes right back to being a serious threat if she shows up with her

best. (5) KATYS DELIGHT is still trying to find her proper level here, and this may very well be it - she's

eligible to be tighter in her 2nd start off the hiatus, and Yannick should know her better as well - possible!

(3) MISS IRISH ROSE A was a bit camera shy when she raced here in the past so it's not shocking to see

that she was just 3 for 42 (out of town) last year - not quite sure how well she fits with the locals, either. (2)

BOTTOMOFTHENINTH has a habit of coming off the bit and clogging the rim - she may need some class

relief before we see her best. (8) CALLMEQUEENBEE A will need a lot to go her way to reach from here.


RACE 10 - (3) JAFFA JOSH N was sent off favored in his local debut, seemed out of sorts at the start but

was able to settle down and rush up to take the lead on turn two, remaining strong the rest of the way to

finish the job - he's the one to beat once more. (1) BARRYWHITE HANOVER was a solid 2nd best last

week to MARTY MONKHOUSER A, who came back to win up in class - he's sharp right now, and should

be a big player tonight. (6) CAROLINA MAGIC was 5 for 19 here last year so that 20-1 ML price does

look enticing, even if he's shipping back from Monti off 3 weeks - good one for anybody looking to "get

out" in the finale. (5) BEACH BLANKET BOOK shipped in off a clunker upstate but rebounded with a

solid local try for 3rd - another small piece is possible. (8) JK LUCKY CHARMS finished well up the

cones last week, really not far off the show spot - good bomb for 3rd/4th, even from out here. (7) SPORTS

BETTOR had just been putting together a good string of races before coming up weak last start - willing to

throw him in for 3rd/4th too, looking for a quick rebound. (2) TOATSMYGOATS just doesn't seem to be

hitting on all cylinders right now, though he does draw well with Gingras. (4) BAMSKI picked up a perfect

trip 3rd last week, but it's hard to say that he's "improving" - we'll see if he an build off that mile.

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