Friday Empire Report

soaofny • July 2, 2021

The Empire Report - Friday, July 2, 2021 - Race Analysis

RACE 1 - (3) ELECTRIC WESTERN drops in class while landing in a very soft basement claiming field -

he would appear to lay over this bunch and it's pretty hard to make a case against him -- that being said,

please note that he's just 1 for 33 over the last 2 years, and 1 for 25 over the past 3 years at Yonkers - in

other words, don't bet the rent money on him as the 1/5 favorite! (7) AMERICAN NITRO earned nearly

$200K at 2 and 3, but has fallen on some tough times as a 4YO - he does have a few decent starts recently

(vs. cheaper), and getting Stratton on board should allow him to work out a manageable trip, despite the

bad post - the main threat? (1) KABOOM POW was good here last year, but his recent out of town efforts

aren't all that inspiring - suppose the rail draw will at least put him in the hunt for a good piece. (6) THERE

ISAPACEFORUS has been no real threat lately, but at least goes evenly most weeks in this class - should

be able to beat a few of these lesser ones. (5) NOBLES FINESSE used to be a good YR horse, but that was

years ago - his best efforts these days seem to only come vs. much cheaper. (2) BIG SWEEP OSBORNE

has picked up just one CHECK in his last 8 starts out of town - will need to be a lot better to contend here.

(4) MATT MAJOR was no good most weeks for a top barn - goes for new connections now, and we're not

really expecting him to suddenly improve.


RACE 2 - (3) SOHO CHELSEAA has always acted like he could be better than he's shown...and with the

big driver change tonight, perhaps we'll find out - this is a soft enough bunch that he would have been a

threat to win with Dauplaise...hard to resist taking a shot with the switch to Bartlett. (1) P H KENNY seems

like he's tailed quite a bit, but it's also possible that's just been victimized by a string of bad posts/trips - if

he's anything close to 100%, he'll be a major threat from this spot (dropping out of $20K claimers). (4)

ALEPPO HANOVER is notoriously camera shy, but he often uses his tactical speed to earn good trips, and

decent pieces - may be the case tonight. (2) IM BENICIO A hasn't finished better than 6th in his last 6

starts - definitely way off form, but he does move to a new barn this week....check the tote board? (8)

DRINKA BEER has picked up 3 thirds in his last 4 starts in PA and certainly is a good fit with these - not

sure he'll be able to overcome the terrible draw, though. (5) GRIFFON HANOVER used the rail to work

out a pocket trip last time and parlayed that into a 2nd place finish (behind the odds-on winner) - not sure

his journey will be as kind tonight, though, and that could hurt his chances considerably. (7) MAJESTIC

KIWI N grabbed a 4th last week but mostly thanks to a ground saving trip - will be harder to reach from out

here. (6) MAURICE just seems off form now, and the outside draw isn't going to help.


RACE 3 - (5) COOL BLUES MAN was terrible for many months before suddenly delivering a much

better effort on 5/14 - won his next (where he was claimed for $12500), and he's continued to thrive for his

new connections, charging home for 3rd last week after moving up to face 20s - sharp enough to win

tonight...IF he can find some trip luck. (1) MARINER SEELSTER had been on a roll before being claimed

by a low % barn on 6/11 - was no factor in his next but was claimed again that night, and now draws the

pole for a hot trainer - expecting a quick rebound effort. (2) PLAY THE FIELD has hit board in his last 3,

draws inside, and is certainly one you'll want to include in exotics. (4) BRACKLEY BEACH aired it out on

the front end of the claim last week and only gave way very late - moves up a class tonight, and that may

slow him down just a bit - definitely not impossible, though. (3) THISJETSABOOKIN just hasn't really

clicked for this very high % barn since being claimed 8 starts back - wouldn't shock, but several others just

seem more appealing right now. (7) FASHIONONTHEBEACH surprisingly weakened at the top of the lane

after cutting the mile...just when it was starting to seem that this barn had become almost invincible - drops

a peg but gets stuck with Post 7....may be looking at a pretty tough trip tonight. (8) PEMBROKE JOEY has

been sharp for a long time but moves up and lands Post 8 for a new barn, and it seems unlikely that he'll

have the same good fortune this week. (6) ASTAIRE was up the track in back to back starts - pass for now.


RACE 4 - (1) SECRET BRO is knocking on the door, coming into this off a pair of 2nds behind sharp front

end winners - he's currently winless on the year, but has raced very well in many of those losses...good spot

to get off the 2021 schneid! (3) BARRY BLACK hasn't been on his best game, but he seems to be headed

in the right direction after a couple of 3rd place finishes - logical player for a barn that's been going well for

some time. (7) NEW HEAVEN is very good right now, ultra reliable at this level, but doesn't usually have

"blasting speed", and will need some trip luck to get it done from out here - playable, but only if the price

offsets the risk. (4) KANDY SWEET does her damage on the front end and it seems unlikely that she'll find

her way there against these - does get a class drop next week, and she'll be more intriguing at that point (5)

GREY is always dangerous because of her good gate speed, and getting a catch driver for tonight is also a

bonus - she's probably a bit cheaper than the main players, though, and that will likely leave her looking at

a smaller piece. (2) CHIEF JUSTICE just backed up badly with no excuses last week and that makes him a

risky proposition for tonight - it's encouraging that he drops right back in the box, but we'd prefer to just

watch, for now. (6) SEVEN KNIGHTS has benefited from easy trips vs. cheaper in his last couple - not

sure he's going to be able to get close to the action against these, however.


RACE 5 - (2) BOURBON EXPRESS went a strong mile in his first local start of the year, and can be

forgiven for getting run down by the classy winner - he's looked good since joining this high powered barn

5 starts back, and the good draw sets him up as a very dangerous player tonight. (4) BLUE AND BOLD has

been very solid for the past 2 months for his talented young conditioner - Holland gets along very well with

him, and he can pick up another good piece....as long as the trip works out decently. (8) SPOILED PRI

NCESS was an easy winner over lesser last start, but only managed a 4th from a similar spot to tonight

back on 5/21 - definitely a chance to beat this modest "Preferred" field, but would still want a decent price

to use on top. (6) P L KETCHUP saw his 3 race win streak snapped after drawing Post 8 up in class last

week - wasn't bad, though, and may even look to leave the gate from this spot - decent value horse for

exotics. (1) DELTASUN A didn't look all that smooth behind last week, then backed through the field after

being passed on the back side - it's probably a good sign that he's back in the box quickly, and he surely

benefits from being (over generously) assigned Post 1 --but still a bit risky off that last mile. (7) WHAT

CHAPTER probably fits with these in his current form but faces an uphill battle from all the way out here.

(5) SUMATRA delivered his best mile of the year 2 back but was unable to build off that effort - will wait

for him to get back in cheaper again. (3) COOL CLIFFORD hung on for a win in NW10000 2 back but

tired badly in his last - prefer others.


RACE 6 - New York New York Mile - $175,000: (2) ITERATION won 5 of 10 starts at 2 and that included

a win right here in the NYSS Final, where she overcame a break at the start to still come out on top - she

also won at Hoosier and down at Lexington, and qualified for the BC Final - so far at 3 she's won both

starts (NYSS and EBC at Vernon), and the good draw stamps her as the one to knock off tonight. (6)

CONTESTED HANOVER was just "ok" when 3rd in last week's elimination, but she's a better filly than

that - she'll be a much better price tonight, and just may show up with a better effort. (5) SWEEPING

RAINBOW just missed to the top choice at VD, then just missed again in her EBC division - assuming she

gets around the track okay, she can have a big say here. (7) MAZZARATI earned $250K as a 2YO, and was

able to hang on and win the elimination last week - much tougher spot tonight, but can still pick up a nice

piece with a bit of trip luck. (8) IMHATRAAM S shook free late last week or probably could have beaten

#7 - gets the worst of the draw tonight, however, and will need all kinds of luck to break her way to

overcome this spot. (3) REBEL GIRL seems a notch below the main contenders, but does draw well with

Dunn - maybe can grab a minor share? (1) PRESTO used a ground saving trip to pick up a 5th last week -

seems a bit below right now, but the rail draw may help her at least pick up a small check. (4) LINDYS

DOLLYWOOD just seems to be a bit overmatched here...but we'll find out for sure tonight.


RACE 7 - Park MGM 3YO Filly Pace - $200,000: (3) TEST OF FAITH comes into tonight having won 12

of her 13 career starts...and was interfered with in the lone loss (but still 2nd!) - she seems to have push

button speed that she can call upon when needed, and the good draw means that Miller can pretty much

drive her any way he wants to - the heavy choice to take tonight's Final (2) MARSALA HANOVER earned

$275K as a freshman and has come back sharp at 3 as well - was right there in last week's elimination, and

she's Zeron's choice over a filly that's 6 for 6 this year (#1) - good chance for a big piece with any decent

trip. (5) CLASSICIST was used VERY hard last week and remained dead game to the wire - the ability has

always been there, but she seems to be putting it all together as a racehorse now - she'll definitely make

some more noise tonight. (4) DARBY HANOVER was very solid in her elimination, pacing home in :27

right behind #1 - can see her picking up a small piece if the trip ends up going her way (1) HEART OF

MINE comes into this 6 for 6 on the year....but hasn't faced fields of this caliber along the way - Zeron opts

for #2 (despite this one's perfect slate this year) and it does seem like the right choice - seems vulnerable

tonight, but we'll see if she can step up her game and succeed with these too. (7) SO IRRESISTIBLE was

right there 4th behind the top 3 choices last week but has the misfortune of drawing Post 7 tonight -- and

that's going to make it difficult for her to get involved here. (6) SHANIA BLUE CHIP and (8) LYONS

SOFTASSILK were well back in 3rd and 4th in the weaker of the two eliminations last week, and now

draw outside in this much tougher field - will be hard for either to have any kind of impact tonight.


RACE 8 - The Yonkers Trot - $580,000 - excellent race! (6) AHUNDREDDOLLARBILL showed plenty

of ability at 2 but also was prone to miscues - returned in a new barn for his 3YO season and has managed

to behave every week, winning all 4 of his starts so far -- his win in last week's elimination was outstanding

and while his trip from Post 6 is somewhat unpredictable, he's sharp enough to handle some adversity right

now - gets the narrow edge over some very sharp opponents. (3) JOHAN PALEMA showed talent at 2, but

was winless in 6 starts - has come back even better at 3 winning 2 of 3 so far, including a tight nose loss to

talented barnmate Delayed Hanover - was able to outkick entrymate AMBASSADOR HANOVER home

into a :27.3 final quarter last week, and Gingras is back to drive him tonight - very dangerous. (4) MON

AMOUR gets a new pilot tonight, but that shouldn't really matter (he's had several drivers already) -

finished with plenty of trot for 2nd behind the top choice in last, and figures to be following live cover

tonight - could add some value to the exotics. (8) IN RANGE was 10-5-4-0 as a 2YO, ending his year with

a narrow loss in the Breeders Crown - he hasn't quite settled into his best groove yet at 3, but the talent is

still there...has a chance even from Post 8, but he'd have to be a lot longer than that 7/2 ML price to be

worth using for the top slot. (1) AMBASSADOR HANOVER won a NYSS on 6/4, was 2nd to the top

choice in his next, and somehow trotted home on the lead in :27.3 last week and still got nipped by his

barnmate (#3) - would be no surprise at all, but we're still leaning to a few others for the top slot. (2) ON A

STREAK earned $740K last year, including a win in the Breeders Crown - hasn't been able to hit top form

yet in 2021, and he'll need to be better tonight if he hopes to contend for one of the top prizes. (5) ETHAN

T HANOVER used an inside trip to grab 3rd last week, but he does seem to be a bit below the primary

players - minor share only. (7) ARNOLD N DICKY is capable of some big miles when in the right mood

but he's looking at a pretty difficult trip from out here...even if on his best game - prefer others.


RACE 9 - The Messenger Stake - $580,000: (3) CHARLIE MAY is a great story - he's an Ohio homebred

by a 21 year old stallion out of a 14YO mare (that has only produced one other "good" horse in her life) -

nevertheless, his improbable success saw him go 9-7-2-0 as a 3YO, taking the OhSS Final as part of a

$328K season - his 3YO campaign started out in fine fashion in Ohio and his performance in last week's

elimination was outstanding, blasting from Post 7 into an early pocket, ending up sitting 3rd then charging

up the cones late pick up 2nd, pacing a final quarter in :26.3 -- there's no doubt he belongs, and a good trip

may propel him to the winner's circle. (6) AMERICAN COURAGE won 7 of 8 starts last year, and just

wasn't right in the race he lost (in fact, he went on the shelf for the winter after that race) - he's come back

even better at 3, winning all 3 starts so far and looking like he has limitless potential - probably would have

been the top choice if not for the difficult post, but he's still more than capable of coming out on top tonight

(1) SIMON SAYS HANOVER rallied stoutly from way back for 4th in his 3YO return - jogged at Chester

in his next, shipped in to Yonkers and crushed a good NW8 field, then came up big again in last week's

elimination, finishing full of pace for 4th after a pretty difficult trip (while fortunate to NOT be disqualified

for possibly causing interference past the half) - if he works out a good trip from the pole he'll be right there

at the end...with a chance to win if the top pair falter. (2) ILL DRINK TO THAT really should have been

able to win last week, but had to settle for 2nd - seems a bit below the top ones right now but he may work

out a good trip here- and that could lead to him taking home a good piece. (8) ABUCKABETT HANOVER

was scary good last week, having to recover after blowing the first turn, ending up first over then struggling

again on the final bend, before putting it all together in the stretch to win easily - ability-wise he's right

there with the top ones...but unless his connections have figured a way to get him around the Hilltop Oval a

lot smoother, it's going to be pretty difficult for him to overcome Post 8. (4) CHASE H HANOVER is a

solid colt, but benefited from the easy trip in last - may not be as successful against these if he has to race a

lot harder this time. (5) MYSWEETBOYMAX did enough to squeeze into the Final, but definitely seems

below most of the main players. (7) HIGHLANDBEACHSBEST draws poorly here and it's hard to

envision a way for him to get into the hunt tonight.


RACE 10 - (8) HEY LIVVY technically broke the track record in her 1:53 qualifier here on 5/21 - was

ultra impressive winning her first local start with a first over 1:54 victory, then was beyond scary in her

next, delivering a vicious "brush and crush" victory by 8 lengths, establishing a 1:52.4 track record in the

process - impossible to go against her right now. (5) HILL OF A HORSE broke at the start last time but

was 2nd to the top choice the week before (with a series of sharp miles prior to that) - good one to use

underneath in the exacta. (4) MELADYS MONET is now closing in on $1.8M in earnings and with his

continued fine form at age12, there's a good chance he'll get to $2M before he's through - another logical

one to use underneath. (7) PATRIARCH HANOVER had won straight Hilltop starts before last week's

brutal trip (vs. the top one) - a little easier journey could land him a spot on the ticket, even from out here.

(3) HOMER HALL may have gained some confidence with 2 wins and a 2nd vs. cheaper - on his best

effort, he'd have a chance to squeeze out a 3rd or 4th here. (6) MAGICAL JOURNEY benefited from the

trip to get 2nd last time - this a tough starting spot, and he may not fare as well this week. (2) THE LAST

CHAPTER usually struggles when he gets up this high, and he comes into this off a break last week -

prefer others. (1) MOSTINTERESTINGMAN draws the pole, but doesn't seem sharp enough right now to

take advantage.


RACE 11 - Wide open race: (3) CENTURY ENDEAVOR should be returning to YR with some confidence

after a trio of sharp starts vs. cheaper at Chester - he beat this class here back in February, the price will be

juicy, and he's one of several with a legit chance to take this. (8) FUNATTHEBEACH N has more than

enough ability to beat these when "right", and his new barn specializes in getting fresh stock "better than

right" - worth including, even from Post 8. (2) TREASURE MACH gets the double bonus of both post and

class relief after racing decently from Post 8 against the $40K claimers - hard to imagine him NOT having

a chance in here. (7) IDEAL ARTILLERY loved the big class drop last week and was a solid front end

winner - steps up a notch now, but has enough ability to beat these too...as long as Marohn puts him in play.

(6) BENHOPE RULZ N was a game winner one level down in his last, but he can hold his own at this level

too, when sharp - not out of the question. (1) CENTURY FURY has been disappointing of late - not sure

that the rail draw will be enough to make him a legitimate contender against these.(4) KNOCKING

AROUND is just 1 for 15 this year and while he does drop a notch tonight, he may not be nearly sharp

enough to take advantage. (5) THUNDER SOME WHERE really needs to be in softer to be a threat.



RACE 12 - (5) IM SOME GRADUATE just toured the oval from Post 8 last week but his prior few starts

at Chester suggest that the classy veteran is probably ready to win one - expect an aggressive try off the

class drop. (3) REDBANK BLAZE A weakened a bit chasing AMERICAN COURAGE at PcD 2 back and

we'll forgive him for that - rallied nicely for 3rd returning to Yonkers last week, and he looms a very solid

threat in tonight's finale. (1) KEPT UNDER WRAPS A beat a bit cheaper 2 back then was a little too far

out to really threaten in last - has the speed to work out a good trip from the pole...and a decent chance to

land somewhere on the ticket. (4) FIZZING N is very much at home at this level - don't necessarily like his

chances of beating these, but he's definitely okay to include underneath. (8) HUNDIE N is good right now,

but he's moving up in class and starting from Post 8 - willing to throw him in for 3rd/4th on a few tickets.

(2) GHOST DANCE draws inside and may attract some attention but his only win this year came at the

bottom level, and he's definitely a little iffy in this higher class. (6) SPORTS BETTOR has just 1 start in 6

weeks and draws outside - prefer others. (7) ABRAXAS BLUES A failed to get close from similar spots

the past 2 weeks - wait for a better scenario.


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