Monday Empire Report

apatchworkdesign • January 30, 2023

The Empire Report - Monday, January 30, 2023 - Race Analysis

RACE 1 - (3) SON OF A TIGER N had been sharp at several tracks and was also sharp in his YR return

last week, coming up 2nd best to heavily favored SMOKIN BY N- gets a good draw, figures to be a square

price, and perhaps can help Buter pick up his first win of the season. (7) ITALIAN LAD N was doing good

things up at Monti and continued that fine form upon arrival at Yonkers, overcoming a bad trip to almost

pull off a big upset - won't be any easier from Post 7, but he does get Siegelman here and is 20-1 ML. (6)

SMOKIN BY N was hammered down to 1/2 for his seasonal debut and delivered the front end score (over

#3) - surely capable of taking another, but the move from the rail to Post 6 may leave him a bit vulnerable.

(5) TJS INDY PACER couldn't overcome last week's two-move try but he does seem capable of better -

willing to include in exotics. (2) PYRO throws a dud here and there but has otherwise been an excellent

performer here the past couple of year, and usually vs. better than these - that qualifier doesn't inspire a ton

of confidence, though (check the tote board?). (4) SO MANY ROADS races well in most of his starts but

was just 2 for 34 last year and likely looking at only a minor piece. Dave Miller was listed to drive longshot

(1) MISTER DONALD A in the LAST race last week, actually came over for the assignment and almost

pulled off the upset, despite a very tough trip- draws the pole (with Gingras) here, but he's also facing much

tougher - leaning to others. (8) DEAN B HANOVER drops but lands another 8 hole - may need to wait for

a better spot before showing his best.


RACE 2 - (1) MOTIVE HANOVER is double jumping off last week's easy victory but he's been razor

sharp for a while, and almost certain to get a good trip tonight - may be able to pick up another win. (4)

BRAEVIEW BONDI A had a strong 2022 season and has looked good to start off the new year - came up

2nd best to the classy FUNATTHEBEACH N last week, and looms a dangerous player tonight. (3) ULTIM

AROCA looked good in that victory 2 back but reverted to his lesser Yonkers from last week, getting rough

on the final turn before giving way - has a chance if he brings his best, but wouldn't want to take a short

price on top. (6) DELIGHTFUL DUDE N has hit board in all but one of his 6 local starts, but the only win

came at the NW10000 level - have a feeling he CAN hold his own with these, but will need some trip luck

to overcome Post 6. (5) EHRMANTROUT saw his 3 race win streak snapped last week after moving up in

class but still raced well - a live trip may help him grab a piece of this. (7) BLANK STARE is a threat with

these on his best effort but he may be a little off that form right now, and the draw won't make things any

easier. (2) AMERICANLIGHTNINGN just caved in the lane 2 back - was tiring again last week, but was

able to hang on vs. much easier....will need to be a lot sharper to beat these.


RACE 3 - (6) BARBADOS never got involved in his first start of '23 but he was all business last week,

moving early to the lead and crushing his rivals - could endure some traffic issues tonight (and may also be

overbet), but he still deserves top billing. (3) REDBANK BLAZE A had no prayer in his first 2 starts of the

year but raced much better than his lines might suggest - moves inside, gets Stratton (5 wins in NJ the other

night) on board, and is listed at 10-1 ML...worth considering. (2) OSTRO HANOVER picked up a win at

The Swamp 2 back then was a no match 2nd best behind the top choice here last week - the classy 8YO

does have a chance here, but that 5/2 ML price is a bit of a turn off. (1) WICHITA LINEMAN could only

manage 3rds in his last pair but he IS capable of beating these if he can find his top form tonight. (4) LONG

WEEKEND A has always run hot and cold and his last 2 lines are a perfect example - he's shown he can

win at this level, and his barn is off to a good start in '23 - possibility. (5) THE DOWNTOWN BUS had a

useful tightener last week but it seems that the only person able to WIN with him the past 2 years was our

former leading trainer - small piece only. (8) PURPLE POET raced super from Post 8 2 back and was sent

off favored last week as a result - didn't come close to his best effort, though, and finished well back in 5th -

he can be better tonight, but it'll be tough to overcome the draw, regardless. (7) SILENT SPLENDOR will

get a more serious look when he gets both class and post relief.


RACE 4 - (4) TOWLINE ALL GOOD ended the year with a blowout win and returned just as sharp,

pacing powerfully into the lane to win his '23 debut - loses Boyd (to #5) but pretty sure that Bartlett is a

suitable replacement...chance to make it 3 in a row. (2) ARRHYTHMIC SURGE disappointed as the

favorite last week but may have not be a fan of the off going - has a license to rebound here, especially with

the barn's "go to" pilot in the bike (1) CAPTIVATE HANOVER looked great for 7/8ths of a mile last week

but caved late and had to settle for 2nd - eligible to make amends tonight, but note that he's winless here

since 2021 before taking too short a price. (3) GOTHIC ROCK was ok from a no chance spot 2 back then

had no room in the stretch last week - good 20-1 ML horse to include in exotics. (5) BRACKLEY BEACH

went on a tear at the end of 2022 (like many of his barnmates) but may be a bit off his best form right now -

he could show up with a big one tonight, but demand a fair price if using on top. (6) MACHIAVELLI was

purchased privately by a (very high %) trainer that did well with him in the past...and quickly ripped off 5

straight wins - tough post here, and hasn't raced in 6 weeks...seems a little risky. (7) FOX VALLEY REN

seems better suited against cheaper...and the post is brutal as well. (8) SOUTHWIND MOROCCAN seems

badly overmatched, and would surely be a major surprise.


RACE 5 - (5) WALKINSHAW N was dullish in his first start of the year but did finish crisply last week - a

similar effort may allow him to rally on by this relatively modest NW15000 field. (6) FOREVER FAV just

wasn't sharp last week but that was true for several of his barnmates - he's gone big miles against better, and

may be able to bounce back and beat these...with the right trip. (2) ODDS ON PICK SIX is moving up

TWO classes tonight, but he's definitely sharp, his barn has been solid, and he does have a post edge over a

few main foes - possibility. (7) THE REAL ONE will likely be coming from last, and probably following a

pair of other solid closers - not sure this is the best spot for the mega-classy 13YO. (3) LUCIANO N has

been pretty solid lately, but his only recent win came (by a nose) at the bottom level, and he may be looking

at only a smaller piece against these. (1) TIGER BARON did well to hold 2nd after being blown away by

the layover winner last week - he was also sharp at Monti prior to that, but he has just one win in his last 15

local starts, and is another likely looking at only a smaller share. (4) MARLBANK ROAD had a useful

tightener last week but his best game is the front end...and it doesn't seem like he can be there tonight.


RACE 6 - (1) LYONS JOHNNYJNR wasn't great in his seasonal debut but he should be tighter now, and

he draws the pole in a pretty soft $30K claiming field - he's the one to beat, but probably not one to bet the

rent money on (at a short price). (5) HURRIKANEKINGJAMES had trouble finding the winner's circle in

'22 but landed on a perfect trip to start off 2023 and was able to get his picture taken - legitimate threat here

too, as long as the trip is decent. (4) BETTER BE OSCAR A raced well at this level several times last year

but he's another that was camera shy - chance with these, but he also figures to be overbet. (3) ONE OFF

DELIGHT A saw his form pick up after dropping to the bottom level, picking up a pair of close 2nds in his

last 2 local tries - may be next in line should the top ones falter. (7) RICKYBOBBYNTHEHAUS is the "x

factor" tonight - he was sent of favored vs. the 40s last week (off his sharp PA form) but simply failed to

function - he'll be a nice price if you think he can shrug that last one off, and win here off the class drop. (2)

BIG BOSS HILL was just 1 for 30 last year and his local starts (vs. softer) have been just "ok"- minor share

only. (6) BETTER B SWIFT was 0 for 15 here in 2022, usually facing easier- draws poorly off the qualifier

and we're leaning towards others. (8) AUDI HARE N lands Post 8 after being away for a year - pass for

now, and watch for later.


RACE 7 - (1) B LIKE CRUISER clearly had some issue on 1/16 but that sharp qualifier (4 days later)

suggests that it wasn't a major issue - IF he brings his best tonight, he figures to be very tough from this

spot. (4) SARANAC BLUE CHIP was very well meant last week but was forced to make multiple moves

against another very well meant rival (and finally weakened late) - an easier trip would make him a legit

player here, and note that he raced very well the last time he paired up with Kakaley. (7) VESPA N took a

few starts after arriving from Down Under to start clicking but he ended 2022 on a good note, and was a

winner across the river to start off '23 - he'll be a good price tonight if you think Zeron can get him into the

hunt. (2) MIKEY CAMDEN hasn't been sharp but he drops out of the 50s, lands inside and a wake up call

wouldn't be a surprise here - ok for exotics. (5) STRAIGHT UP COOL landed impossible spots in his 2 YR

tries and had no prayer- much better draw this week, and not a bad bomb for the bottom of the ticket. (6)

OURRHYTHMNBLUES N wasn't bad last week from a no-chance (8 hole) spot - another candidate for a

piece....with some trip luck. (3) AMERICAN BOY N lands inside but his recent form has been lacking -

needs to find some of his better form to contend here. (8) QUALITY BUD was just "ok" beating cheaper

last week - will need to be a lot better to have any say from all the way out here.


RACE 8 - (5) AMERICAN DEALER was making his first start off 4 months last week (in NJ) and despite

being viciously parked to an insane :52.4 half, still kept trying all the way and wasn't all that far back in 4th

at the wire - he's enjoyed plenty of success here in the past, and seems likely to get a better trip than his

main rivals - gets the nod here. (4) NANDOLO N really BENEFITED from the same half that cooked the

top choice last week, and was able to rally by for a lifetime best 1:48.3 victory - he's on his game right now,

and it would be no surprise if he was able to take another. (1) THE IDEAL DANCER A has been doing

good things since arriving in the U.S., and that includes last week's impressive score in his YR debut - he'll

get a major class test tonight (while also (understandably) losing Bartlett to #4), and we'll see if he can go

with these too. (7) SEMI TOUGH got sharp before our winter break and has held that form ever since - the

only knock is the draw, but he'll need some major trip luck to get it done from out here - not impossible,

though. Both (2) GENIUS MAN and (3) FEELIN WESTERN have been sharp and consistent lately, but

they do seem to be a notch below the main players - either/both could land a small piece, depending on how

the race plays out. (6) OAKWOODINITOWNIT IR qualified back sharply for a very high % barn, but it

would be asking a lot for him to be ready to beat the top ones after being away for 2 months.


RACE 9 - Good race: (6) FAMILY RECIPE actually was much sharper when 5th from Post 8 on 12/16,

then in last week's 2nd place pocket finish - he's charged home from some very difficult spots in the past,

and he'll surely be a good price tonight - one of several with a legitimate chance in here. (2) TITO ROCKS

kicked home full of pace last week, a close 2nd despite the bad date- the right trip could make him a winner

(4) COVERED BRIDGE steps up after beating easier but he's also won here at the Open level - his barn

has been hot since the new meet began, and this guy has to be respected. (5) MOONSHINE KISSES didn't

race here in 2022 (9 for 19 out of town), but he's done some good work at Yonkers in the past - hard to

know if he'll be tight enough, but he's worth a look if the price is right. (3) THE REGULATOR was an even

4th last week and is capable of better- another with a chance under the right scenario. (7) PRICELESS

BEACH won his last 2 starts of '22, including outkicking NANDOLO N from behind on 11/28 - hasn't

raced since then, however, and lands all the way outside for his return - hard to ever ignore his very high %

trainer, but this does feel like a tough spot! (1) PEACE OUT POSSE is listed here at the bottom, but only

because he's up on class, in a strong field - wouldn't be a surprise if he was able to grab a piece.


RACE 10 - (2) BAD TO THE BONE N was stuck coming first over from 6th last week, then out into a

:27.3 third panel - he still held together decently, and this feels like a spot where he has a chance to pick up

his first local win (with most of his main rivals either landing outside, racing off a bad date, or both). (4)

MEMPHISTENNESSEE N was finally reaching the lead 2 back but got on a line badly and had to be

grabbed up - landed in a bad spot last week, and perhaps he can make some better noise tonight with a

cleaner trip? (5) ROCKIN WITHELVIS A has some decent Down Under stats but that qualifier doesn't

seem all that sharp - he hails from very dangerous connections, however, so at least glance at the tote board

for clues. (8) CHANTEE has thrived ever since arriving here this Fall and might have been the top choice

with a better draw - not sure there's any way for Lachance to get him in play from out here, though. (1)

HEISMAN PLAYER will make his presence felt from the pole but he really seems to need a bit easier to be

a serious threat. (3) DELIGHTFUL TERROR pounced on a perfect trip last week but this field is much

tougher - wouldn't shock, but leaning to others. (7) VELOCITY KOMODO would normally be a big threat

against these types but he lands Post 7 off 6 weeks, and seems likely to handled conservatively. (6) MAXI

MUS RED A is another that fits well here, but figures to also be handled patiently off the layoff.


RACE 11 - (1) DRAGON SAID seems well off his Open form....but not that far off that he shouldn't be

able to handle these - figures to be a very short price, though. (3) JAHAN HANOVER was a very good 8

hole winner here last start - moves up a notch, but may be the main danger if the top one falters. (2) HES

ELECTRIC was used early and faded in his last pair but could be much better with a more patient trip -

could add some value to the exotics. (5) HICKFROMFRENCHLICK was very good for a while but seems

to have tailed a bit - the class relief could help, but it'll probably come down to how easy a trip Stratton can

work out. (6) TWIN B HEART THROB beat up on much easier last week but he was certainly impressive -

tough draw (and loses Bartlett), but may still be able to rally for a share. (4) GAMBLINGTERROR tends to

be in-and-out - he gets class relief next week, and will look more appealing at that time. (7) WARDAN

EXPRESS A really wasn't bad last week, but he faces an uphill battle trying to get involved from Post 7.

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