Tuesday Empire Report

soaofny • October 18, 2022

The Empire Report - Tuesday, October 18, 2022 - Race Analysis

RACE 1 - Club Veneto/American Friendship Trot -- (4) KANDY SWEET has a big class edge on most of

these, is sharp right now, and can definitely leave the gate (but can also race from behind, if necessary) -

Italian pilot Massimiliano Michelotto has the horse to beat in tonight's opener. (6) WILLIE B WORTHY

ships in sharp from Pocono, has some local experience and also has a class edge on a few of the others - if

Mr. Mignano can work out a manageable trip from Post 6, he can be a big player here. (1) MISS YOU KEL

LY struggled for a long time but has looked better in her last few starts - draws best for Sofia Ricci, and that

puts her in a good spot for a nice piece of this. (2) REEL EM IN was a winner in an amateur event here 3

starts back, and ships in off a nice effort at Monti - he generally finishes well, and that may allow him to

rally for a piece here. (3) FOXY TROTTIN STICK shows a mixed bag of recent starts - if he can bring one

of his better efforts tonight, that would allow him to contend for a nice share. (5) ABSOLUT

UNCERTENTY is used to facing better but he's been well off form, and will need to pick up his game to be

a serious player tonight.


RACE 2 - Good race! (6) ITS MESMERISE N may be worth a play this week - she was sent off favored

last time (moving to our leading barn) but seemed to have some issue well BEFORE the start, and had to

make up a ton of ground just to get near the gate at the start - she can be forgiven for tiring badly by the

final turn, and just may be a rare opportunity to get a "fair" price on the trainer/driver combination that is

usually way overbet. (5) PAIGES GIRL is another "excuse" horse from last week - she got trapped on the

cones by a very early mover, and just never had any chance to pace - she's sharp enough to threaten here

with a good trip. (2) POPPY DRAYTON N charged home to win 2 back, then was just too far out of it to

have any real chance last week - she does look appealing at that 10-1 ML price. (4) LAURIE LEE was way

overbet when she picked up that win 3 back but she's been a legitimate player for several weeks, and

remains a viable threat for tonight. (7) CHUPPAH ON moved all the way inside last week and was able to

pull off the victory - it'll be a lot tougher moving back outside, so insist on a good price if looking for her to

repeat. (1) ENGLISH ROSE N hasn't been bad, and does get a "Tyler Change" (Miller to Buter), along with

the rail - another with at least a chance, at a nice price. (3) CRUSH ME couldn't maintain her bid last week

and tired in the lane - will need to be sharper tonight in this very well matched field.


RACE 3 - (4) ROLLING WITH SAM has definitely been off his best game but it's not like he's been

"bad", and he's certainly been in some tough spots - he showed much better life finishing last week (with

some class relief), and drops to an even softer spot for tonight - look for an aggressive drive...and possibly a

return to the winner's circle. (2) HEZA REAL DIAMOND has solid overall form in PA and NJ, and ships

over off some hard used trips - should fit well here, with a chance to be a serious player. (5) LOUIE THE

HORSE N seems to have tailed recently (in PA) but this barn must always be respected when shipping into

town, especially when Bartlett is on board - chance for a wake up call here. (1) MULLINAX drops back

down to a level he enjoys, and also draws the pole - include him in exotics. (7) QUALITY BUD had the

class opened up to fit him in, and is certainly taking a nice drop for tonight - no luck with the draw,

however, and that might limit him to a smaller share. (3) GAMBLINGTERROR raced better in his last

couple, helped by good trips - he moves up to face tougher here, and does seem a notch below a few of the

main players. (8) SOHO CHELSEAA was a sharp winner in his last pair, but the class jump AND 8 hole

do figure to derail him a bit tonight. (6) LUC ROCKS probably needs to be in cheaper to be a player.


RACE 4 - (5) DP REALORDEAL is 2 for 4 here at Yonkers, with a pair of solid 2nds behind the beastly

BB LUCKY BOY - this is a tougher overall field than the one he beat last week, but he's still the one they

have to knock off. (3) THRESHOLD raced well here in July, picking up a win and a pair of 2nds - he

returns tonight showing a mixed bag of tries in KY and PA, and has also missed a month (with just one start

in more than 7 weeks) - he does add Lasix, and his barn generally has them ready when they drop in the

box....still has to be seen as some hat "iffy" for tonight. (2) RB shipped in with some good looking

Michigan form and was able to get the job done vs. a NW2 field - this bunch will be a much bigger test, so

we'll see how handles it. (6) HP LIS SHADOW took 3 weeks off then re-qualified after a pair of breaks -

the ability is here, but obviously some gait issues still persist - tough post may see him take a conservative

approach for tonight. (7) DRAGON CITY finished 3rd behind the top choice last week, racing much better

in his 2nd local try - would have listed him a bit higher if not for the terrible draw. (4) LOUS BEACH has

only been able to pick up smaller pieces since winning his way out of NW2....and figures to be looking at a

similar result for tonight. (1) SHARKY BEAR draws the pole but has so far been a bit below the main

players - needs an easier spot. (8) HUNT YOU DOWN draws Post 8 after failing to threaten at all last week.


RACE 5 - (6) HELLABALOU was really starting to find his best 4YO form but struggled in a couple of

Chester starts and was no factor last week in his YR return - his barn isn't the type to just drop them in and

HOPE they're better, so we'll assume that he'll be ready for a much sharper effort tonight - far from a cinch,

but still believe he deserves the nod. (1) VELOCITY KOMODO was no factor at all from Post 7 last week

but look for a MUCH different kind of effort from the pole tonight - expect him to be a strong player from

start to finish. (2) FOREVER FAV hasn't won in some time but he's usually been right there whenever he

draws inside - no reason he shouldn't be finishing strong, and close at the end. (5) GLACIS was off 3 weeks

to his last but still kicked home with usual late pop - he's just 1 for 26 this year, but he's raced well in

almost all his starts, and would really benefit if the pace gets hotly contested. (4) GENIUS MAN benefited

from a dream trip in that victory 2 back but came up flat with another decent trip last week - leaning

towards a few of the others. (3) HES ELECTRIC has been a much improved horse the past couple of

months, but did come up a little flat at the end last week (vs. easier) - might find a few of these a little too

tough. (7) AMERICANLIGHTNING N failed to get involved from a similar spot last week, and would

need a major form reversal to be a serious player tonight from out here.


RACE 6 - (7) GINGRAS BEACH can battle much better than these - draws another horrible post but he

really should be able to overcome it, and handle this pretty soft bottom-level bunch. (3) ON THE VIRG is

having a rough year (overall), and even made an unexpected miscue before the start last week - that being

said, this is definitely the type of spot where he could easily have a wake up call, and be a major threat. (5)

IVE GOT HOOTSPA shows lines out of town that would make him a good fit with these...but his 1 for 29

record this year makes it hard to use him on top - include in exotics. (4) MEADOWBROOK RAIDER is

racing well enough out of town for a shot at a piece here - not interested in him on top at that 3-1 ML price,

but willing to include underneath. (6) HAPPY TRIO was beyond struggling for several starts and pretty

much an "autotoss"....but that last PcD suggests his connections may have found something - check the tote

board for some more clues about tonight? (1) HENRICO wasn't doing all that much for the Super Siblings

and appears to be going in the wrong direction for his new barn - we'll see if the rail draw can perk him up

a bit. (2) BRONSONS DELIGHT is 1 for 25 this year and just 4 for 75 lifetime - sticking with others. (8)

MIDNIGHT LIGHTNING will have a hard time getting close to the action from all the way out here.


RACE 7 - (2) CAVIART CHERIE turned in a big effort for 2nd on 8/30 then followed that up with a long

overdue win the next week - unfortunately she was scratched injured from her next, followed by a pair of

up-the-track miles from 8 holes -- she did finish with very good energy in her last, however, and may be

ready to start contending again - good value play in a pretty wide open affair. (4) JOSSIE JAMES A has

been a little inconsistent even for our leading barn, but the move inside should make her a very dangerous

player tonight. (1) ACEFOURTYFOUR ALEX was dull for a very long time but suddenly turned things

around recently, and is 5-2-1-2 since early September - has to be respected from this spot. (3) CALLMEQU

EENBEE A was just an "ok" 2nd last week, but does seem capable of better - would definitely consider

using if the price is decent. (6) MILLWOOD BONNIE N was a winner last week (as well as 4 back) and

her barn has been solid lately - moves out to a tough post tonight, however, and may be looking at a smaller

piece this time around. (5) ASHTINI turned in solid efforts the last 2 weeks to pick up a pair of 3rds -

chance for a similar result tonight if her trip is decent. (8) LOOKATMYART has been sharp for a very long

time, but draws another bad post for tonight - willing to throw her in for 3rd, hoping for some trip luck. (7)

VELOCITY MCSWEETS seems well off her best game right now.


RACE 8 - (3) OAKWOODNITOWINIT IR hit an inconsistent patch for a while but seems to be hitting on

all cylinders right now after changing barns, and going back on Lasix - a repeat of his last would make him

mighty tough in here, even moving up in class. (4) PACE N PRIDE N was super when 2nd two back - he

was a little light at the end last week, but he did finish behind 3 pretty good horses....could be the main

danger. (1) SO MANY ROADS has been very solid for weeks - moves up in class here, but the rail could

help offset that - include underneath in exotics. (2) BENHOPE RULZ N has been sharp for some time so

last week's 9-1 payoff was an awfully good price - he's another stepping up in class here, but still sharp

enough for another good piece with the inside draw. (5) BELTANE A finished 2nd behind the top choice

last week (no threat) but was helped greatly by his two hole trip - looking at a tougher journey tonight - and

likely a smaller share. (6) EHRMANTROUT finished 2nd in his last 3 starts, but had pocket trips each time

- moves outside to Post 6, and that will likely leave him with a lot more work to do - leaning towards others

(7) GROOVY JOE certainly isn't "bad" right now, but he may not be sharp enough to have any real impact

from all the way out here.


RACE 9 - (1) AIR FORCE HANOVER isn't the most reliable horse around but he just missed last week

(taking the drop down to this level) and will get his chance to make it last on the front end tonight - won't

offer much value, but he is the one to beat. (2) PADUKA N hasn't been lighting the world on fire lately, but

he drops in class, draws inside, and a much better effort could be in the cards for tonight (7) BECHERS

BROOK A has just "ok" lines vs. similar in PA but he gets Bartlett upon arrival and may be blasting despite

the outside draw - could add some value to the ticket. (3) VIRGIN STORM 't won here all year but he does

grab pieces when the trip goes to his liking - chance for a piece tonight. (8) PERFECTLY CLOSE hasn't

been sharp but his barn did send out a couple of live ones last night, and this guy will be a big price - good

one for longshot fans in the finale. (6) BOBCAT BAY was no factor at all shipping in last week but he does

seem capable of better - maybe consider for 3rd/4th? (4) WAR DAN DELIGHT N is 1 for 62 over the past

2 years and impossible to consider for anything more than a small share. (5) PINEBUSH LIFESAVER is

better lately, but figures to be a bit overmatched in this much tougher field.

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