Monday Empire Report

soaofny • October 17, 2022

The Empire Report - Monday, October 17, 2022 - Race Analysis

RACE 1 - (2) MIGHTY SANTANA N was well backed and aggressively handled off the class drop last

week, coming up just a little a short at the wire - a similar effort might be able to get the job done against

these. (1) MISTER DONALD A took plenty of $$ off the class drop (and post relief) last week but

struggled on the rim (against #2) and could only muster a 4th place finish - looking at an easier trip tonight

(from the pole, with Holland) and he's eligible to be a bigger threat this time. (5) SOHO LENNON A was

handled very ambitiously last week (3rd off the layoff) but wasn't up for it, and tired in the lane - this could

be the week that he puts it all together, but that 2-1 ML price makes it hard to get excited about a wager. (3)

WEONA SIZZLER A drops in class after a decent, ground saving 4th against better - eligible to pick up

another decent piece tonight. (6) SIX DEGREES raced ok on 9/6 in his 2nd try for a new barn but was then

dull at PcD after missing 25 days - returns to YR, and just feels like a work in progress at the moment. (7)

OUR MAJORDAN A was no factor from a similar spot last week - maybe we'll give him a look dropping

in class next week, preferably from a much better post. (4) AIR GUITAR was just no good at all last week -

waiting for some better signs before considering.


RACE 2 - (2) FAMILY RECIPE was sent off at 4/5 last week (off a sharp try the week before) but had

trouble chasing the hot clip, was unable to even pull and had to settle for a disappointing 3rd - this feels like

a spot where he should be more comfortable, and we're going to give him top billing...but he's definitely not

one to bet the rent money on at a short price! (3) WALKINSHAW N drops in class (as do many in here)

and should be close enough to the pace to be a late threat - he hasn't won in some time, however, so insist

on a fair price if trying him on top. (6) BARON MICHAEL has been stuck with bad posts for several

weeks now and tonight is no exception - he's sharper than he looks (on paper), and the right trip could put

him in play late....not a bad value horse to consider. (4) ALEX TYE got both post and class relief, was well

backed and gave it a shot on the front end...but still came up light at the end - he does get Bartlett tonight,

but that 2-1 ML price does take away a lot of his potential appeal. (1) WATERWAY was good for most of

the year but seems to have tailed recently, and his barn has really dropped off lately as well - we'll see if he

can get a wake up call from the rail tonight. (5) MOHAWK WARRIOR is only one moving up tonight in a

field full of "droppers" - he's good right now, but still seems destined to contend for only a minor share.


RACE 3 - (4) SHINE A LIGHT just buried the 40s last start and was one of FOUR easy winners for our

top trainer/driver combination last Monday - he's become a transformed horse since joining this barn 4

starts back, and looms the solid choice to make it 2 in a row. (1) ONE OFF DELIGHT A came up 2nd to

one of the top choice's barnmates last week, debuting for his new connections - he's looking at a good trip

from this spot, and may be next in line once again. (2) TIN ROOF RAIDER A has been a very consistent

player in this class, but the winner's circle continues to elude him - probably looking at another good chunk

tonight with the inside draw. (6) AMERICAN BOY N used a very good trip to win at this level 3 back, but

could only muster smaller pieces the last 2 weeks - the outside draw may leave him in that same boat

tonight. (3) PROVOCATIVEPRINCEN took off the gate last week AND gave up a seat...pretty much

sealing his fate early on - he'd been good for several starts prior to that, so we'll see if he can rebound with a

better mile tonight. (5) DEETZY came into his last sharp but the class hike and 8 hole slowed him down

considerably - he gets a better draw here, and we'll see if that can help him contend for at least a smaller

piece. (7) LIKE CLOCKWORK picked up a 3rd and 4th in his last pair but the move outside may leave

him too far back to be as fortunate tonight. (8) LATE MAIL N was unable to get into the hunt from Post 7

last week and gets stuck outside once more.


RACE 4 - (1) JACKS LEGEND N may (or may not) be a smidge off his best game, but that shouldn't stop

him from handling this crew - he's used to facing (and beating) much tougher than these - very short price

looming. (4) UNCLE JORD A finished with really good pace from an impossible spot last week, and his

overall form has been solid as well - could be the one to complete the exacta. (2) MICKY GEE N has been

having a rough year, he did look pretty good last week in his 2nd start off the layoff - may be able to pick

up a good chunk tonight as well (3) REIGNING DEO was sent off favored last week but driven by Kakaley

like he knew he wasn't going to be sharp - strong barn drops him right back in the box, so perhaps a quick

rebound will be in the cards for tonight - include underneath. (6) SARANAC BLUE CHIP may take a shot

at leaving here (if nobody else looks to go) - if he can grab a good early spot, he may have a shot to land on

the bottom of the ticket. (7) HEISMAN PLAYER may be a little off form, or perhaps he's just been in a

bunch of bad spots - regardless, he's in another brutal spot tonight, and will need plenty of luck to find his

way into the hunt. (5) CANTSTOPLYING seems better suited to be in a bit easier - prefer others. (8) HER

RICKROOSEVELT N draws Post 8 off the layoff - we'll just observe this week.


RACE 5 - Good race: (2) BRAEVIEW BONDI A has really thrived since shipping back from Canada and

landing in his current barn - he's versatile enough to handle any trip, and that may come in handy in a race

that could go several different ways - one of a few with a chance to take this (and congrats to his trainer,

who recently took over the duties for yesterday's $250K MGM Aria Invitational winner NONE BETTOR

A, elevating that one's game enough to beat one VERY tough field...while also going over the $1M mark in

career earnings)! (4) OUR CORELLI N is in his best form of the year right now, and is another that can

race well off a variety of trips - should be a good price, and does fit nicely. (1) THE DOWNTOWN BUS

was just 1 for 34 here over the past 2 years but he comes into tonight off a trio of dominating wins, recently

morphing into a new horse after being claimed by our leading trainer - he'll be facing a tougher field this

time, and maybe this isn't a bad night to look for a better price with a couple of others. (5) WHITECOOKIE

ships in razor sharp from PA, and has done good things here in the past - another to include on your tickets

if spreading a bit this race. (3) MAXIMUS RED A steps up in class but does seem sharp enough right now

to at least hold his own with these - ok to include underneath. (8) OZONE BLUE CHIP seems to have

tailed a bit and draws Post 8 in a tough field - prefer to wait for a better spot. (7) MIKEY CAMDEN is

holding his form at this higher level, but tonight's draw does figure to make it tough for him to replicate his

solid recent efforts. (6) MACH N CHEESE was able to hang on to 3rd last week, but the move outside may

not agree with him - leaning towards others.


RACE 6 - (3) RAUKAPUKA RULER N had outside posts vs. better in his last two, but came up with a

pair of front end 2nds in the starts before that - gets Bartlett in the bike tonight and can be expected to be

right on the front end - not much value here, but does seem the one to knock off. (5) LONG WEEKEND

has been pretty in and out lately but he loved last week's easy trip, and charged home late to get there at the

wire - a similar effort could make him a threat once more. (2) PASS A GRILLEBEACH is hard to gauge

here - he was stuck in the back with no chance in his last 2 at Pocono (off a layoff), and it's hard to say if

he's just well off form, or ready to deliver a big effort from this much better spot - maybe the tote board will

offer some guidance? (7) DELIGHTFUL TERROR would normally be a threat (even from out here)

against these, but he's just been off his game lately - if you think he might perk up tonight, he does figure to

be a pretty decent price. (1) WARDAN EXPRESS A returns from PA off a 2nd place finish but he's just

13-0-1-1 at Yonkers this year - should get a good trip from the pole, but needs to be better (locally) if he

hopes to be a serious player. (4) ROCKATHON was a winner 4 back but he was drifting out late that week

and has done similar in recent starts as well - he also made a break in the pocket last week, and is definitely

on the risky side right now. (6) LUCIANO N isn't clicking nearly as well as a few of his barnmates right

now, but he's at least worth a look for those that like to play the "hot trainer" angle.


RACE 7 - (4) SAILBOAT HANOVER has just been insanely sharp since being claimed on 8/20 by his

owner/trainer, picking up 3 wins and a hard charging 2nd into a 1:51.3 mile - pretty hard to go against right

now. (1) GENTLEMAN JIM II IE shipped in sharp from Fhd. and was a good 2nd last week behind the

"threepeat" winner - looking at another good trip here...and a chance for another big chunk. (2) MACH DO

RO A moves back inside and has enjoyed plenty of success at this level - belongs in your exotics. (3) KER

FORD ROAD A was a steady 4th in his first start off the claim - draws inside, and has a decent chance to

pick up a slice of this. (6) MOONLIGHT SHADOW was a sharp winner dropping down to 40s two back,

but was no factor moving back up to 50s last week for new connections - may have trouble getting in play

from a tough post tonight. (7) TELL THEM LOU is pretty good right now, but will need lots of trip luck to

get close to the action from Post 7. (5) CLEVER CHARACTER has a few recent wins (vs. cheaper) in

Canada and ships down to a barn that usually does very well with these types - on the flip side, he has just

one start in nearly 7 weeks, and has to be seen as pretty iffy for tonight. (8) CHIEFS BEACH has picked up

some good pieces vs. 75s but that was from inside posts - tonight's class drop may be offset by the draw.


RACE 8 - (2) SPEED MAN N gave it an aggressive try in his 2nd start off the layoff, just missing 2nd in a

sharp try - he's a proven winner at this top level, and seems ready to deliver his best - worth a play this

week. (4) BUDDY HILL had his best year in 2021 - has taken a while to get rolling in '22 but he's hitting

on all cylinders right now, and looms a big threat even moving up in class. (5) CARLISIMO is another that

comes into this razor sharp, both here and at Pocono - if the trip goes his way, he has a chance to be a big

part of this. (3) COVERED BRIDGE rallied well late from a couple of impossible spots in the Open, then

took advantage of last week's class drop to score on the front end as the odds on choice - moves back up

here, and remains a very viable threat. (1) THE WILD CARD has only one start in the last 6 weeks but it

certainly was a good one - lands the pole, and it's a bit of a guessing game as to how he'll fare. (6) JOESST

R OF MIAA likely needed his last after missing a month and figures to be tighter tonight - he does fit with

these, but will need some things to go his way after drawing Post 6. (7) THE REAL ONE draws Post 7

after being away for 3 weeks - prefer others.


RACE 9 - (1) BENJIS BEST has been racing well every week in 50s but hasn't been able to pick up a win

in his last few starts - drops down a notch to 40s, and that stamps him as the one to knock off (3) CHANGE

STRIDE N seemed a little off his best for a few starts but delivered a better effort last week - if he can build

a little off that mile, he can be a live player from this spot. (5) GHOST DANCE has hit board in 7 of his

last 8 starts, with a variety of trips - hard to not include him in exotics! (6) APEX SEELSTER also drops

down from the 50s but doesn't get the benefit of a good draw - still has a chance for a nice piece, with the

right trip. (7) CAVIART SARGENT has been leaving the gate the last few weeks and while still racing

well, it's left him a little short at the end - might be able to do some late damage (at a nice price) if Stratton

takes him off the gate tonight, and lands in a live flow. (2) KEYSTONE DASH went on a beautiful form

spree but has started to go the other way in his last couple of starts - sticking with others here. (4) JACKA

MINO has improved significantly in his last couple of starts but he jumps up from 30s to 40s off last week's

win, and this class MAY be a little ambitious for him. (8) REAL LUCKY also moves up from 30s (after

being claimed last week), and draws Post 8 on top of that - tough spot!

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