Tuesday Empire Report

soaofny • October 12, 2021

The Empire Report - Tuesday, October 12, 2021 - Race Analysis

RACE 1 - (4) DANCE IT OUT was a solid first over winner in his YR debut back on 6/29- not as sharp

when 4th in his next start but was scratched sick after that, then put on the shelf for a couple of months - no

prayer in his return (8 hole in Chester stakes race), but that start should have him tight for tonight's much

easier spot - gets a narrow nod. (1) BEEBEETEE hadn't done all that much in Ohio but he crushed a Fhd.

field (for a new barn) after shipping east, and draws the pole for his local debut - seems like a very legit

player. (2) SAULSBROOK HERO landed on a tough trip upon arrival from Canada but was still an ok 4th -

could be tighter now, and an easier journey may put him right there at the finish. (5) PINEBUSH LIFESA

VER hasn't had any local success but he's also been in several impossible spots - license to pick up a small

piece here. (8) FREDDIE FAVES is another Iowa Fair invader and this guy hit board in all 27 of his career

starts - the win total was way down in 2021 however, and he lands a very tough spot for his YR debut -

check the tote board for clues? (6) INSTANTANEOUS ships in for a very live barn (adding Lasix) but he

may be on the cheap side, and he hasn't raced since 9/16 - will probably just watch him, for tonight. (3)

FESTIVE JOE started his career at 0 for 33 before taking his last pair at Tioga - not sure how he'll fit class

wise with these, but we'll find out tonight. (7) PURPLE SKY backed up in his local debut - pass for now.


RACE 2 - (1) MILWOOD BONNIE N has been sharp for a long time, and been facing (and even beating)

better than her rivals in here - was claimed 2 back but then quickly reclaimed from her last...and her owners

catch a break with this new "$50K Claiming FM" debuting tonight (so that they don't have to risk losing

her again for $30K) - the one to beat. (6) TALL POPPY N is sharp right now, just missing 2nd last week

into a :27.1 final quarter - has the speed to leave hard and create a trip for herself, and she may be the main

danger. (4) POPPY DRAYTON N really disappointed last time but she acted as if she was uncomfortable

cutting a mile - could rebound with a sharper effort here, at a decent price. (3) TAKE ABIT OF LIFE was

really overachieving for a while this summer, but has definitely leveled off a bit - fits ok here, and one to

include in exotics. (5) LYNBAR ROSE N is solid right now, but may find herself landing on a less than

stellar trip tonight - wouldn't shock if he landed on the ticket, but leaning to others ahead of her this week.

(2) WATCH MY LUCK can be ok if she lands on an easy, up close trip - needs to be sharper, though.


RACE 3 - (5) SPEED MAN N was scratched sick on 7/23 but qualified back nicely and lands in a soft spot

for his return - really supposed to handle these if anything close to 100%. (1) VANQUISHED N is 0 for 16

on the year but usually pretty competitive at this level - a good trip gives him a solid chance to land on the

ticket somewhere. (3) SOUTHWIND MOROCCAN was a winner off the barn change 3 back, and kicked

home with good pace from an impossible spot in last - chance to add some value to the exotics. (7) GRIFF

ON HANOVER is a good fit with these, and would have been picked higher if not for the outside draw -

still a chance to make some noise here with some trip luck. (6) GENIUS MAN missed 18 days to his last

start and has missed 24 days since then - inclined to pass for tonight, but will at least glance at the tote

board to see if he's taking any $$. (2) THESPYWHOLOVEDME ships in from Fhd. showing good form

but he's generally a bit cheaper, and is also notoriously camera shy at YR - would be willing to consider for

a small piece, though. (8) ON THE VIRG had really been struggling before finding a basement field he

could overpower last week - moves up, lands all the way outside, and we'll stick with others. (4) LATISSI

MUS HANOVER has some ability for sure, but he's been way too erratic lately to consider right now.


RACE 4 - (4) IMAGINARY LINE was picked up by the Super Siblings recently and clearly they were able

to work their usual magic on this guy as well - anything even close to those last 3 Fhd. efforts would crush

these....but won't label him a "cinch" only because the barn is currently mired in a 1 for 23 slump (perhaps

with the Red Mile meet concluding, the local horses will quickly perk right back up). (3) MARLBANK

ROAD is 6-2-2-0 since arriving at Yonkers, with tough spots in a couple of those starts - should be looking

at a good trip here, and a solid chance to pick up a big piece. (8) IMMA BEE was 6/5 in his last start (the

OhSS Consolation) but made an uncharacteristic miscue - looks like he'll be a very nice fit with these, but

MAY get a conservative steer tonight (after landing Post 8 for his YR debut) - still worth using in exotics.

(1) STELLAR YANKEE has 2 wins and a 3rd from his 3 local tries, and seems capable of handling the

jump to NW6, especially after drawing the pole - include underneath. (7) JESSICAS BEACH BOY has

some issues and can be highly unreliable - he'll also be a big price for a hot barn, so at least consider for

3rd/4th if spreading in tris and Supers. (2) L DEES JACK LOPEZ has a couple of local wins but comes

into tonight off a pair of dull tries and sick scratch - sticking with others. (6) KEYSTONE NOLAN was no

factor in last even before the stretch break - draws outside, and we'll wait for a better spot. (5) DIAMOND

HEAD does have a local win but in general, seems a notch below these.


RACE 5 - (4) MONEYMAN HILL had no chance in first two local starts but moved inside last week and

was a sharp front end winner - steps up a notch but this is a pretty modest NW10000 field, and he does

have a chance to repeat. (2) DECISION DAY was favored in his last (against the top choice) but didn't fire

his best shot, and really had no excuse to not be 2nd - license to be sharper tonight and make amends, but

would need a decent price to use him on top after that last outing. (5) GLOBALDOMINATION N was also

favored last week, and was very disappointing 3rd - another that COULD take this...if he steps his game up

a couple of notches. (1) KNOCKING AROUND has been picking up tons of smaller pieces, and there's a

good chance he'll do just that tonight, as well. (3) PEPPER GUY is solid right now - use him underneath in

exotics. (6) HEAVENLY SOUND seems to do his best work vs. a bit cheaper - maybe can save ground an

grab a small piece? (8) ORILLIA JOE was better last week than in his previous start but still wasn't nearly

good enough - moves outside to Post 8, and seems an unlikely threat from this spot. (7) ABERDEEN

HANOVER has been doing his best work with cheaper - waiting for a class drop, and improved post.


RACE 6 - (1) SUMTHINBOUTIM is the reluctant choice here - he has just one 5th from his last 5 starts

but he's facing much softer here, and will have every chance to control the action - wouldn't want to bet the

rent on this one, though, as he figures to be overbet. (6) BALLERAT BOOMERANG raced very well in his

first 2 starts off the barn change and was just in too tough in his last pair - if Miller handles him

aggressively here, he'll have a chance to make some noise at a nice price. (7) KINNDER JACKSON

probably should have been able to win 2 back (lost by a nose), but had no chance at all in last - this field is

within his comfort zone, but we'll see if Stratton is able to find him a manageable trip. (2) SECRECY was a

1:52.3 winner at Fhd. last week but some of the times from that day look incredibly fast - normally just

looking at a smaller piece against this type. (5) RETOUR AU JEU was well backed in last and used a

perfect trip to just beat weaker - not impossible here, but seems more likely to grab a smaller piece than a

bigger one. (8) SIX DAY WARS benefited tremendously from a ground saving trip when 2nd last week (at

a big price) and will need more extremely good racing luck to pick up another good chunk tonight. (3)

MACINTOSH N was able to beat cheaper last week but usually isn't as effective up at this higher level. (4)

ZACH MAGUIRE N has picked up a lot of smaller pieces this year, but has managed just one 2nd from 20

starts - minor share only.


RACE 7 - "Pop Up Series" Final - (2) BILL HALEY N was a winner in the first leg and finished full of

pace for 3rd in the 2nd leg - he's razor sharp right now, and has a chance at the mild upset if some trip luck

comes his way. (1) BETTOR MEMORIES came to life 3 back and has been very sharp ever since - draws

best for the Final, and looms the one to beat from this spot. (6) ROCK THE DEVIL was very sharp when

2nd two back so last week's 10-1 payoff was certainly an overlay - draws outside in a strong field, but he's

very good right now...include him in exotics. (4) AFLAME HANOVER was just "ok" beating cheaper 2

back but was a sharp 2nd in the first leg, and held well for 4th last week after a hard used trip - one to use

underneath. (8) BUDDY HILL moved inside to the pole last week and converted a two hole trip into a

victory - much tougher spot now, though. (5) IMSTAYNALIVE went the best mile of his career (at least at

YR) to win 2 back, but then was no factor last week - maybe can grab a small piece with an easy trip? (3)

MACH DORO A couldn't last on the lead either of the past 2 weeks, and will be facing a much tougher

field tonight - will need to be a lot better to have any chance. (7) DIAMONDBEACH was a game first over

winner last start but moves out to Post 7 and faces an uphill battle from this spot.


RACE 8 - (2) FOOLISH PROPHET was a solid rallying 3rd in his local debut - was scratched sick the

following week, but showed no ill effects when he jogged at Buffalo on 10/2 - should offer some decent

value here in a field with no stickouts. (1) BOLT POWER was no factor in either of his last two starts here

but he's a better horse than that - perhaps the move to the pole will help him find that better form. (3) STOP

STARING rallied well two back for a distant 2nd to the runaway winner, but tired in his last after getting

blown away to 3/4s by that same foe - meets no such rivals here, and he's actually the most accomplished

horse in this field - very logical player. (5) BRAZEN BRAZILIAN is now 0 for 29 on the year but he's in

good form, and has hit board in 9 of 20 local starts - good one to include underneath. (4) DANCING JOE

was 2nd and 3rd in his last 2 starts in this class, and is another that's eligible to grab a small piece. (6) DA

GHETTO WIZARD hung in the lane of a decent 3rd over trip in his YR debut - we'll see if he's better the

2nd time around. (7) A B COLLINS and (8) SCOTT ONTHE ROCKS both draw outside and both are still

trying to prove they can contend in the NW4 class - may have to wait for kinder spots.


RACE 9 - (4) SAUVIGNON BLUECHIP showed a lot of potential in a short 2YO campaign but just never

got things going this summer at 3 - he's finally started to come around in his last few starts and last week's

win here at Yonkers was a nice step in the right direction - moves up but Brennan sticks, and we'll view that

as a vote of confidence...we'll stick with him too. (3) JM BLUE has won 2 of his 5 local starts and was a

nice 2nd to the standout winner in last - major threat in here. (1) SAMSON BLUE CHIP looked super

running off in his first 2 starts for a new barn but really hung badly when forced to race from off the pace

last week - not sure if he just had an off week, or if he just doesn't like to pass....mixed feelings about his

chances tonight, especially at a pretty short price. (2) BET ON BLAKE got beat here with no excuses in his

YR debut but did manage to hang on to win his last - he'll need to be better to beat this field, though. (5)

AIR GUITAR definitely raced better last week, but was helped by the slow final quarter - still prefer others,

but we'll at least start to give this guy a little longer look now. (6) MOONLIGHT SHADOW puts in moves

most weeks but has trouble sustaining them - may need easier to be a more serious threat. (8) MICK

EYMAKSOMSPEED saw his bid stall badly 2 back, then failed to really fire in last - Post 8 just makes it

even harder to consider him. (7) MACPHEUS is 5-0-0-0 so far at Yonkers - waiting for better signs.


RACE 10 - (2) UCANTTOUCHTHIS (who will probably be getting an ownership change to go along with

this week's barn change) has absolutely buried the competition in both local starts - he does move up a class

tonight, but he's hard to go against off those two powerful performances. (6) SOUTHWIND PETYR landed

on a very difficult trip last time and can be forgiven for weakening just a bit to be a close 4th - an easier trip

gives him a chance to score a mild upset. (1) TELL THEM LOU showed good potential at 3 but somehow

is still winless in 24 starts at 4 (though he has hit board in 15 of those losses) - good one to include

underneath. (7) CAPTIVATE HANOVER is always good for a late rally, but may be coming from too far

back tonight to grab more than a smaller slice. (4) EXPLOIT was no factor in his last (8 hole) after coming

up a little short at the end the start before - seems off his best game, so use him for a minor share only. (3)

ARTIST BEST did some nice damage in NW2 and NW4, but hasn't been able to threaten (so far) in NW6 -

may be a bit overmatched tonight too. (5) NEXT BIG THING somehow managed to hold on last week to

beat a NW4 field with a :30.3 final quarter - will need to be a lot better for a chance to contend in this better

field. (8) ROLLING WITH SAM is the outsider, both literally and figuratively.


RACE 11 - Good race! (4) GAMBLINGTERROR is frequently overlooked in the wagering, but has been

outracing his odds for most of the year - if things go his way, there's a chance he can pull off an upset in

here. (5) KING JAMES EXPRESS is a very steady player who has bankrolled $365K at 2 and 3 (so far) -

another that can come out on top tonight with the right journey. (1) TOWN GOSSIP will attract most of the

attention returning from the Jug, and with a strong local history (and drawing the rail) - as mentioned

already, his usually rock solid, high % barn is currently experiencing a slump (1 for 26 since 10/1), so

perhaps this guy will be a bit vulnerable tonight? (2) LARRY LINCOLN N took all the $$ last week so it

was no surprise to see him go right to the top and grab his 3rd local win - he's been doing fine work while

reined, trained, and maintained by Austin Siegelman! (6) CIGAR SMOKING TONY is a quality 4YO

coming off a win....the fact that he's 20-1 ML (and being picked this far down) is a reminder of how solid

this group is. (7) BETTERTHANTHEBEACH has gone some big miles here recently but draws outside a

bunch of sharp rivals, and may have trouble strutting his best stuff tonight. (3) CAPTAIN FANCY has

ability, but just seems like he may prefer a bigger track - not impossible, though. (8) ISAAC seemed a bit

overmatched even before being saddled with Post 8!


RACE 12 - Very tough finale! (7) MAJOR BETTS had plenty of pace last week but never shook free to

show it - he absolutely fits with these, but has a bad post, and his barn has been off lately -- he'll be a good

price, though, and that makes him worth a stab in this wide open race. (3) SANTAFES COACH usually

needs to be in easier for a chance at the top prize but he's pretty sharp right now, and an upset is not out of

the question. (2) OAKWOODINITOWINIT IR wasn't at his best last week, even though a close 2nd - if he

shows up on his "A Game", he'll have a shot in here. (1) ROCKATHON is probably pushing his limits at

this level but he's pretty good right now, draws the pole, and should at least be considered for a piece. (5)

PYRO was nailed 2 back with no excuses as the prohibitive 1/10 betting choice, and didn't have his usual

pop in the lane last week - definitely vulnerable right now, but also eligible to just bring his best tonight and

beat these. (4) ESCAPETOTHEBEACH was just 3rd in the Open 4 back and gone many miles that would

make him tough in here - he's not on his best game, though, and will need to pick things up if he hopes to

be a serious threat tonight. (6) PERSIMMON A was an excellent 2nd off the layoff for his new barn last

week, but was also helped tremendously by the trip - faces tougher now, and may struggle a bit. (8) SAN

DOMINO A perked up and pounced on the perfect trip 2 back for the victory, but immediately regressed to

his lesser form in last - draws Post 8 now, so we'll stick with others.

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