The Empire Report - Wednesday, September 29, 2021 - Race Analysis
RACE 1 - (2) COACH CAL looked like he might pull off the upset last week but hung just a bit near the
end and had to settle for 3rd - draws well here, and may be able to make that late move pay off tonight if
the leaders mix it up a little in front of him. (5) BUGGER BRUISER is an obvious threat off his consistent
recent form, but he has only one WIN from his 5 starts here this year, and does figure to be overbet. (1)
BEGINNERS LUCK, unlike #5, has been very INconsistent....but he did win from the pole 2 back, and has
a lot of 1sts and 2nds this year - possible if he brings his best tonight. (8) BLUEBERRY HEAVEN is a
good bomb to consider - really wasn't bad last week despite a hopeless spot (off a bad date), and he does fit
here - another 8 hole is the obvious issue. (3) CHACHING HANOVER is just 1 for 39 over the last 2 years
but he may work out an easy enough trip tonight to at least grab a small piece. (4) HAGGARD drops into a
claimer but really has no current form to speak of - hard to like at that 3-1 ML price. (6) MOXLEY picked
up a 2nd last week but that was from the rail, with a two hole trip - much tougher spot here. (7) MACHING
TIME had a couple of recent 2nds, but those were pocket trips (from the pole) - figures to have a hard time
getting involved from out here.
RACE 2 - (7) LIMERENCE hasn't done much of anything for weeks, but he was also facing light years
better than these - last week's non-effort is a bit concerning, but he may have already had tonight's drop to
the bottom level on his mind - good week to take a shot with him, against the type of horses he's handled in
the past. (4) IN MY DREAMS is hard to like in his current form but he's notorious for random form
reversals...and often against better than these - worth considering, but only if the price isn't short. (1) LINC
OLN TUNNEL basically just toured the oval in his local debut, but really wasn't bad - expect a much more
aggressive try tonight. (3) WHETHER OR NOT FI was credited with an "equipment break" 2 back but was
offstride multiple times in last, and didn't look great for much of the mile - seems awfully risky to back at a
short price right now. (5) SVF CASH DEPOSIT has been really struggling for some time, but his last was a
bit more encouraging - willing to consider at the right price. (2) BARNEY MAC doesn't have the greatest
local win %, but he's usually competitive with these type - another that at least has a fighting chance in
here. (6) CELEBRITY SERENA seems to fit with these class-wise, but she was 4-0-0-0 here last year, and
lands outside for her YR return - leaning towards others. (8) KATKIN AND COKE is 7-0-0-0 at Yonkers
and draws Post 8 - wait for a more realistic spot
RACE 3 - (3) DASHINTOTHEBEACH N shipped to the U.S. riding a 3 race win streak in NZ...and that
was just after facing Group 1 stakes company the start before - qualified sharply at Pocono, and looms the
one to beat in her stateside pari mutuel debut. (1) TAVA was 3rd here in a NYSS race back in July, then 4th
in the Final 2 starts back - draws best, and would normally be the choice here...if not for the presence of the
fresh import. (5) FRENCH SHAKER found her form immediately upon moving to the Dynamic Duo's
barn, delivering a sharp 2nd last week - logical threat for a big piece tonight, as well. (4) BEACHBLANKE
TLINDY threw a rare dud last week, stopping badly from the top of the lane - drops right back in the box
so maybe it was just a minor issue - ok for a small piece. (8) IDEAL CHIP figures to be coming from way
back but most of her local starts have been solid, and she may be able to add some value to the bottom of
the ticket. (2) EARLYBIRD SPECIAL has been "meh" so far, but the good draw gives her at least a chance
to tow along for a minor share. (7) CINCO SENORITA seems a little cheap, and the outside draw really
figures to hurt her chances. (6) SEBOMOOK BEAUTY seems a notch below these - just watching for now
RACE 4 - (1) DRAZZMATAZZ has legitimate excuses in his last few starts here - he was holding his own
with much better not long ago, and this feels like a good spot for him to take advantage of the class drop,
and take this crew right down the road. (2) ALLINDOTIME was away for 3 months but able to easily beat
cheaper at Chester in his 2nd start back - in line for a good trip here, and could easily outperform that 15-1
ML price. (4) IM THE MUSCLE has picked up pieces in all 3 starts - hasn't been "great", but he's been
good enough to be a threat for another good chunk tonight. (5) SUMATRA was a "meh" winner against
easier last time - he's capable of better, and will need that to be any kind of serious threat tonight. (3) TOR
KIL came up with his best mile in ages last week as he rattled off fast fractions then dug in to prevail -
steps up here, but still has to be used underneath. (8) STINGLIKE A B K has been struggling for a while,
but did show a hint of life last time - may be able to build off that, but a better post would have been nice.
(6) RESITA was terrible in his local debut - will wait for a better effort before considering. (7) BINGO
QUEEN figures to be well back at all points
RACE 5 - (7) LIFEWITHJOHN has some mixed recent form in Ohio but the "good" efforts would make
him a threat here, even from Post 7 - factor in that he's making his first start for the Super Siblings and that
means we can likely expect to see his best tonight...gets the nod, even with the bad draw. (5) EGOMANIA
was in terrible spots in his first 2 starts off the claim but was able to find the front end last week and was a
sharp 2nd best - could be the main threat, in a battle of two ultra high % barns. (1) MASTERSON is a
bigger threat at the $20K level but the rail draw should make him a serious player against these, as well -
this barn has been hitting at nearly a 30% clip since the beginning of August! (6) BAMSKI ships in sharp
from PA, but vs. cheaper - we'll see if he can continue to do some damage against this tougher bunch. (2)
STARK HANOVER takes a double jump off the claim and that might be a little too much - inside draw
does help, and that may help him take home a small slice. (3) UNICO LEGEND N used a pocket trip to
stay close and grab a 3rd last week - he's just too unpredictable from week to week to get any kind of good
read on him! (4) TIME OUT IM TIRED took way more $$ than expected last week, tried to leave the gate
and was weakly parked - just not sharp at all these days. (8) JACKAMINO does his best work with cheaper
and draws Post 8, just to make it even harder for him
RACE 6 - (2) STAR CAPTAIN has plenty of solid tries when not stuck in stakes races - should be pretty
tight after chasing those fast miles in KY, and the price should be decent here in this pretty competitive
event - decent value play. (1) NATCHEZ BELLE had no prayer in her last start here (8 hole) but expect a
much more serious try from the pole tonight - she fits well with these, and should have a big say in the
outcome. (4) FILLY won the first 6 starts of her career but came up 2nd best last week, with no excuses -
might be able to bounce right back and get a new streak going, but she definitely feels a bit vulnerable at a
short price. (3) DC BATGIRL used all of her pocket trip to pick up the win here 2 starts back - her 3YO
campaign has been somewhat disappointing, and she'll need to be sharper here to contend for the top prize.
(6) RELAY ROLL has a pair of recent NW2 wins here and definitely has some ability - draws outside in a
much tougher field tonight, and the guess is that she'll be looking at a smaller piece this time. (5) IDEAL
HANNAH picks up a lot of smaller pieces, but may have trouble going home with more than a minor share
tonight. (7) LINE EM UP is racing well right now but draws horribly, and in a pretty solid field - may need
to wait for a better spot. (8) CATIE FAYE HANOVER has been racing well for weeks, but mostly vs. easier
- will need all kinds of trip luck for even a smaller piece tonight.
RACE 7 - (1) PRAY THE ROSARY looked super in that win 2 back, even if it was from a pocket, vs.
cheaper - just forgive her last (8 hole off a bad date) and look for her to pop up with another sharp mile
from this spot tonight. (6) EYE POPPING had been terrible for ages before FINALLY reversing form with
last week's stellar front end blowout - we'll see if she's turned the corner and ready to start doing some
weekly damage, or if that big mile was just an anomaly. (7) MORNING HAS BROKEN ducked in at the
start 2 back (first time Super Siblings) and had to take back, but still went a big mile - clean start in last saw
her hit the top from Post 7, but she weakened late after looking home free - addition of Lasix for tonight
may explain her last, and she could offer some serious value here. (3) HIGH ROLLING got too hot on the
lead last week and ended up weakening to 2nd - chance for another piece tonight, especially if she can relax
a bit more. (2) SALLY FLETCHER A didn't fire vs. better last week but the class drop and good draw give
her a shot to outperform that 15-1 ML price. (4) CORAL BELLA might be better one level down, but still
has a shot at a minor piece with these. (5) ASHTINI looked like she was going to be 2nd last week until the
leader (#7) tired late, and she was able to surge by for the win - she hasn't been all that sharp, so we'll see if
she can build some confidence off that victory. (8) CHECKERED PAST returns off a win over cheaper in
PA - would probably be okay here from an inside post, but faces a tough task from all the way out here
RACE 8 - (7) EASY TO PLEASE was doing good work before the recent purchase and is certainly racing
very well right now - will need some trip luck to overcome another outside draw, but has a chance to beat
these if things go her way - should be a decent price from this spot. (4) ELLAGATOR had no prayer at all
last week (8 hole, stretch traffic) but was a solid 2nd in her previous 2 outings - can be a big player here
with the right trip. (1) TENTHOUSAND ANGELS' major form improvement has been well documented
here, although she did come up a little light at the end last week when 3rd (after winning her previous two)
- draws her 3rd straight rail and will be a big player once again...with a chance at the top spot if she returns
to her top form. (3) LARJON LEAH had legitimate excuses in her last pair, but still seems to be slipping a
bit - prefer to just use her underneath right now. (6) WAKEMESHAKEME made a break here 2 back then
went on the shelf for 5 weeks before making a start across the river last week - should be ready for action
off the mile, but the outside draw may limit her a bit for tonight. (2) RUTHMAE HANOVER put it all
together to easily score her first local victory - steps up here, and we'll see if she can build enough off that
mile to be a player here too. (5) LET ER BUCK was ok last week off the inside trip but does seem to be a
notch below several of these. (8) CHELSKI continues to race well but tonight's draw is a killer
RACE 9 - Tough race! (7) WINDSONG PIONEER is a much better horse when he can hit the front end,
and he actually lit up the board at 35-1 that way from Post 8, in this class - if you think Holland will take a
shot and send him, he's a good bomb to throw a few $$ on. (4) ZAGSTER should appreciate the class relief
here - he may need a bit more, but he's not an unreasonable play in this field. (3) OUR WHITE KNIGHT is
a tough call - he had been 0 for 9 at Yonkers before last week's (surprisingly) easy victory, and now he steps
up in class and is listed at 9/5 on the ML - he may very well beat these too, but there won't be much value
to be had. (1) INNISFALLEN always looks like a contender when he ships in but he's now 6-0-0-1 here -
maybe he can do more damage tonight with the rail draw? (6) WARRAWEE SHIPSHAPE has some good
miles in this class but faces a tougher task (off the reclaim) with the outside draw - mixed feelings about his
chances. (5) TRUMP THIS did his best work vs. a bit easier, and for his previous barn - needs to step up his
game a bit to be a threat tonight. (2) BLUE AND BOLD has the ABILITY to beat these....but he hasn't
been "right" in some time, and you would have to just believe he's going to reverse form off the class drop
to play him tonight. (8) SEVEN KNIGHTS doesn't figure to ever get close from this spot
RACE 10 - (6) JMS DELIGHT was holding his own with much better for a few starts - had a couple of
lesser outings but rebounded with a sharp try in last, hanging in very gamely to be right there 3rd despite a
tough trip - drops down to the bottom level here, and it feels like a good spot for him to pick up his first YR
win. (1) IWONTDOTHATAGAIN has been "ok" in his last few - draws best, and may be able to add some
value to this ticket. (3) BIG SIR has only managed one 3rd in 7 local starts but he's been facing better all
along - will probably look to outrun these, and may take them a long way tonight. (5) MCCLINCHIE N
was a nice 2nd from Post 7 last week and moves in a couple of notches tonight - use in exotics. (8) CLIFFH
ANGER is sharp now, but draws another 8 hole and may or may not be able to get involved - at 20-1 ML,
he's absolutely worth having on your tickets. (4) DOCTOR BUTCH has been pretty invisible in most of his
local starts this year - maybe can find away to pick up a small piece of this? (2) SWEET TRUTH just isn't
in a good way right now, and pretty hard to endorse. (7) SUNSETBOOZECRUISE hasn't beaten a horse in
his last 3 starts, and only a total of 3 rivals in his last 6 - remains a pass