The Empire Report - Thursday, September 30, 2021 - Race Analysis
The track was in horrible condition LAST Thursday (it really poured during the night) and
many of these raced in tough conditions - some form reversals COULD be possible tonight
RACE 1 - (2) JUXTA COWGIRL was sent off at 6/5 last week at PcD off the class drop and was able to
come up with the front end score - tonight's class "NW8175" was created up to fit her in, and there's a good
chance she'll be able to take advantage of the circumstances. (6) CLASSY CHAPEL N got sharp in her last
pair at Pocono and brought that good form back to Yonkers last week - she'll be helped by the short field,
and has a good chance at a big piece of this. (4) SCANDALICIOUS was off 3 weeks to her last and may
have struggled a bit on the off going - fits well, and belongs in exotics. (3) DIAMONDTOOTHGERTIE
dropped to the basement last week and came alive, as she often does - not as reliable at this level, however,
and likely looking at a smaller share this time. (5) AMERICAN TOUR N is pretty unreliable, and does her
best work one level down - looking at only a minor piece tonight. (1) MISS WATERBUFFALO draws best
for her Hilltop debut, but does look to be a bit overmatched - will just watch, for now
RACE 2 - (1) CHAPOLIER was purchased prior to the Excelsior A Final and paid instant dividends to his
new connections - made a break on that very soupy track last week but did come back with a good recovery
- should be a fair price in a race with several solid contenders, and he deserves a chance to make amends.
(2) TRANQUILITY K didn't have a great trip last week but was still trotting strong through the wire - she'll
definitely offer good value here, and is worth considering for your tickets. (3) FIRST GUNNER shipped in
from Iowa with a 24-16-6-0 slate - jogged in his first local start for new connections, was promptly re-sold
and is 2 for 2 since the purchase - it's pretty hard to fault him in any way but this is a very competitive field,
and he just may be overbet in this tougher spot. (4) VICTORIANA debuted for a new (top) barn last week
but is another that went offstride in the off going - would be no surprise at all if she was part of the equation
tonight. (6) BIG BAD SWAN has been a major disappointment overall since the private purchase in July -
draws outside some sharp rivals and even if he brings his best effort this week, it may only be enough for a
minor share. (7) PREACHER MAN took advantage of an aggressive steer last week to beat cheaper - draws
outside a better bunch, and may struggle to get in play. (5) LADY RESORT AS returns to YR off a pair of
easy PA wins, but will have to prove she can hang with these better foes.
RACE 3 - (4) A CRAFTY LADY beat a comparable bunch at PcD on 6/20, then again 2 starts back (while
generally facing better in most of her other starts) - lands in a field in her YR return that should be right up
her alley, and she's won plenty of races here in the past. (8) THE CHARGING MOA may be a good bomb
to consider - she qualified behind two nice rivals at Monti, but disappointed in her return here last week -
that was over a very sloppy track, however, and she may be ready for a much better effort tonight - the
price will certainly be right. (2) DIBABA N was sent off as the odds on choice dropping to this level last
start but just never looked right and made a break - capable of being a legit threat if she shows up on her
best game tonight. (5) ROCKIN THE BOYS A is used to facing much better - didn't fire off the drop to
NW7500 last week (off track), so we'll see if tonight's drop helps produce a better effort. (7) ISLAY N has
been sharp for some time but gets stuck with another bad post for her new connections - not sure how much
damage she can do from out here. (3) SANDY WIN was raced aggressively last time and gave way to 3/4s
and tired - maybe a very conservative steer tonight can help her finish well enough for a small piece. (1)
QUITE A DELIGHT N has a pair of recent scratches, with a dull try sandwiched in between - she'll need a
wake up call tonight if she hopes to be a player. (6) E R HILARY was no good at all last time - was it the
barn change, the off track...or both?
RACE 4 - (6) JESSIES OUTLAWED was 34-8-10-3 racing mostly on the midwest fair circuit at 2 and 3
but still fits this "NW1PM" class - he's listed at 20-1 ML, meets no killers in here, and is definitely worth a
stab if anything close to that price. (5) VICTORY YANKEE has been improving since the recent barn
change and ships in to town off a nice win at Pocono - did make a couple of breaks here in the past, but for
a different barn - respect his chances for sure, but probably still too risky to take a short price. (3) ORIGIN
AL SMOKEY sat pocketed to the stickout winner last week and safely held 2nd, though tiring at the end -
he's 0 for 22, but did hit board in 14 of those races...definitely a chance against these. (1) DRAVEN HANO
VER adds hopples after getting a little rough early last time, and killing his chances - willing to use in
exotics. (2) CANE GANG stayed flat in his first try for a new barn 2 back but reverted to bad habits in his
last - he's flashed ability at times, but still feels like a work in progress. (4) SV ROYAL FLUSH has speed
but struggles to finish his miles - racing tonight off a sick scratch, and that certainly doesn't figure to help
his chances. (8) CHERRY MASON would have a decent shot at a piece with a better draw, but may be hard
pressed to get involved from out here. (7) KEYSTONE CECILIA shipped in and won here on 8/5... but has
continued to regress since then.
RACE 5 - Tough race: (4) LYNBAR ROSE N shipped back sharp from Fhd. and went a good first over
effort for 3rd vs. better - not sure how this race will play out, but a live trip will make her a dangerous
player. (3) EDGE OF ETERNITY is hard to like off her last couple of starts but she gets a big barn change
for tonight and could easily outperform that 12-1 ML price. (5) TEMPUS SEELSTER was an easy winner
in both local starts and now moves up seeking her 3rd straight - it's possible that she'll get it. (7) FEELIN
RED HOT is clearly well off form right now but it's usually just a matter of time before she perks up and
reels off a few good ones - maybe tonight? (1) ACEFORTFOUR DOME was in career form recently but
went the wrong way after being claimed - last start was a bit better, so we'll see if she can continue to head
back in the right direction. (6) WATCH MY LUCK fits well at this level, but draws outside and is at the
mercy of her trip - not a bad bomb for the bottom of exotics. (8) SOUND IDEA was very well backed last
week and was a convincing pocket winner - steps up tonight while landing Post 8, and that figures to slow
her down considerably. (2) SEZANA N is 0 for 22 on the year and has lost to lesser many times - this just
seems like a pretty rough spot for her
RACE 6 - (4) BACARDI always seems to "figure", but always seems to start moving a little too late -
maybe tonight he finally puts it all together and rolls on by for the win? (3) INSANE CHASE was recently
purchased by Marcus Johansson who has had some success this year giving horses to this promising young
conditioner - qualified nicely (on Lasix), and may be ready to elevate his game a bit - worth a look at 15-1
ML. (2) GREG started his career at 0 for 19 in Canada but was still purchased by high profile connections -
just missed in his local debut but was an easy winner in last - steps up a bit, but still looms a dangerous
threat. (5) CHROME PACKAGE is 0 for 10 at YR but did hit board 6X - ok to use underneath. (1) INFINI
TE ZETTE is another that doesn't feel like a threat to win, but is worth including underneath. (8) SAN CRI
STOBAL had no prayer from Post 8 last week but unfortunately lands that same bad post tonight - keep an
eye for future considerations. (6) KING JIMMY won 3 in a row here not long ago but tailed considerably
right after that - still trying to find that better form. (7) DEWEY HALL took a lot of $$ last week despite
being dull in his local debut...and disappointed again
RACE 7 - (1) IMPRINCESSGEMMMAA went the mile of her life here on 8/26, making 2 moves from
Post 8 to win in 1:51.1... then got beat at Fhd. the next week! She's always been plagued by inconsistency,
but she still throws big miles when in the right spot - held a long way after getting parked last week but that
won't be a problem tonight...the one to catch and beat. (2) LOVELY DONNA absolutely crushed her rivals
off the class drop last week - steps up here, but she's fine at this level with a good trip...and she should get
one from this spot. (5) PANSYS IMAGE made about $200K as a youngster - had a rough 4YO campaign
but has been doing fine work at 5, and makes her YR debut after an extended form streak in PA - should fit
ok here, and can grab a decent piece if her trip works out. (4) SPORTS FLIX had to grab up and back off
3rd last week, then raced ok for the show spot after that - can grab a piece tonight if she lands on an easy
trip. (8) SCUOLA HANOVER is a talented mare who has been holding her own most of the time against
MALES down in Delaware - gets a big driver switch to Zeron, and may be able to grab a piece (at a big
price) even from Post 8. (3) ROCKNROLL ANNIE was one of the barn's 3 winners last Thursday and she
was extremely impressive - not sure how she'll fare against these better mares, but it wouldn't be a shock to
see her hold her own. (7) JIVE DANCING A is very good right now (against better) but has benefited from
a series of inside posts - may have some trouble from out here, even as sharp as she is. (6) NORMANS
MADELINE seems like the outsider tonight
RACE 8 - Well matched field: (2) GRAFFENBERG was starting to come around nicely from late July but
after a 2nd place finish in this class on 8/12, he went on to make breaks in 2 of his next 3 starts - definitely
a little risky right now, but the price will be juicy and that makes him worth a stab. (3) DA BOOGIE MAN
was 2nd here in a fast mile on 8/19, won his next start, then was 2nd last week to prolific winner FIRST
GUNNER....very dangerous in his current form! (3) CREATIVE VENTURE made a break here on 7/22 in
his local debut but has behaved ever since, and returns from PA of a sharp victory - he'll be rallying late...
and possibly for a big piece. (1) YUCATAN PARTY MAN finally broke his maiden 4 starts back, then
came right back to take his next as well - solid 2nd and 4th in his last pair, and draws the pole tonight - has
to be included in exotics. (7) DUKE OF LINDY tailed badly for a while but added trotting hopples last
week and went a big mile for 3rd at Chester - good bomb for the bottom of exotics. (5) REEL EM IN may
have been hurt by the off track last week - chance he could rebound with a much better mile tonight. (6)
CHERRY RED draws poorly and that leaves him hoping to save ground, and squeeze out a minor share. (8)
BRILLIANT BOB tired from the pocket from the rail last week and now is stuck all the way outside
RACE 9 - (6) DELITFULCATHERIN N tasted defeat on U.S. soil for the first time last week, but was still
an excellent 2nd behind dropdown runaway winner LOVELY DONNA, overcoming both a poor trip, and a
sloppy track (and it was her first attempt against older mares) - Dube opts of #2 to drive her...and that's a
major vote of confidence. (2) JOSSIE JAMES A hit a rough patch to close out August but had a nice
bounce back mile when 2nd last week - Dube understandably opts to drive the top choice but this mare is
no slouch...and could easily come out on top here. (1) IM VERY SPECIAL hasn't done much winning at
YR this year but she was pretty good from Post 8 last week, and is looking at a pretty good trip tonight -
include her underneath. (3) LUCKY ARTIST A was an "ugly" winner here 3 back in NW5000 but has
looked better in her last pair, climbing the class ladder each time - no reason she can't pick up a piece
tonight, as well. (4) WALTZWITHSIERRAA disappointed last time but over a pretty sloppy surface -
eligible to come up with a much better effort tonight under better conditions. (5) CASH ROLL came up
2nd best to a sharp one in last, after crushing cheaper in her other start here this year - gets a bit of a class
test tonight, so we'll see how she handles it. (7) POPPY DRAYTON N and (8) PETTYCOAT BUSINESS
are both looking at uphill battles from their outside posts - wait for better spots
RACE 10 - (6) SIESTA BEACH already has 8 wins and over $200K on her card this year as the former
claimer has now clearly established herself as a very legitimate Open mare - she gets assigned the outside
post but will definitely be helped by the shorter field....and her versatility is always an asset - deserves top
billing against these. (5) DRAGON ROLL is ON a roll, with wins in 3 of her last 4, including last week's
upset over RACINE BELL - her barn has been on fire, and her only recent loss actually came against the
top choice - we'll see if she can avenge that defeat tonight. (2) BOLT OF BEAUTY is winless here in 6
starts but went some big efforts in a few of those losses - the 4YO appears to developing into a legitimate
Open mare herself, and can make some noise here off the short freshening. (3) BETTERB CHEVRON N
has been on a fine form spree recently - no prayer in her last Open attempt but she can do much better from
this improved spot. (4) SNOBBYTOWN hasn't been in "top form" for a while, but continues to race well at
a slightly reduced level - probably looking at only a smaller piece here. (1) DANCE CLUB is razor sharp,
gets assigned the pole, but still has to prove she can battle at this top level
RACE 11 - (1) DUCHESSPEDIA raced here once this year and crushed the field with a 1:55.4 mile - was
purchased after finishing 3rd at Fhd. in the NJSDF Final and debuts tonight (from the rail) for the Dynamic
Duo - pretty hard to pick against! (3) HOOLIE N HECTOR went some big efforts in the Excelsior A legs
this year and was an excellent multi-move 2nd (from Post 7) here last week - logical one to use in exotics.
(6) TURBOCHARGEDPETE hit a rough patch for a while but that last effort was more like it - at 20-1
ML, definitely one to include underneath. (2) DIFFIDENT is 5-2-1-1 at Yonkers this year, draws inside,
and is another logical threat to take home a decent piece. (7) PIVOTAL has had a solid 3YO campaign and
definitely fits with these - outside draw doesn't help though, and neither does losing the services of Dunn.
(8) DC ANNA won her last Hoosier start before shipping east, and went a very promising mile in her local
debut, trotting steadily through the lane to rally for a close 2nd - just not sure she'll be able to find a way
into the hunt from all the way out here. (4) MOON BRIDGE takes $$ every week but has yet to really
deliver - at 5/2 ML, there's just not much value to be had, even if he's your choice. (5) FOX VALLEY
LIZA hasn't clicked in her new barn since arriving from Canada - waiting for better signs.
RACE 12 - (2) HEAVENS SHOWGIRL A was highly regarded when she arrived recently from Australia,
going off at 5/2 here in her first U.S. start - was no good that night, but came back to be a sharp closing 3rd
in 1:48.4 mile across the river - little disappointing in her last but draws inside for her YR return and gets
Brennan to opt off his main client's horse (#8) - maybe tonight she finally puts it all together. (1) MAJOR
BATTLE was 2nd in NJ when the top choice was 3rd, then shipped back in here and beat a tough JOSSIE
JAMES A last week - major danger again. (3) MILLWOOD BONNIE N has been very sharp for weeks and
now moves from one very sharp barn to another - should be able to grab her usual good chunk. (6) LADYB
ELUCKYTONITE has hit board in 5 straight (one win) for a red hot barn - good one to use for 3rd/4th. (8)
SHOULDABEENATD missed a month to her last at Chester and wasn't all that sharp - draws Post 8
tonight (with Brennan opting for #2), but may still be able to rally by a few of these. (4) ANN HILL is on
the cheaper side for sure, but may be sharp enough at the moment to tow along for a minor share. (5)
GOLDEN QUEST N is having a rough year (1 for 21), and her best efforts have come vs. cheaper - wait
for a softer spot. (7) WOODMERE HARRIET got pretty good for a few starts but has leveled off at these
higher levels - Post 7 only makes things even tougher.