Thursday Empire Report

soaofny • October 2, 2024

The Empire Report – Thursday, October 3, 2024 – Race Analysis

RACE 1 – (5) ALEX TYE may be worth a stab tonight – he throws a big one here and there, and he definitely

catches a pretty suspect field tonight – might be a spot for Brennan to get aggressive and give this guy a chance. (6)

VIVA LAS VEGAS N is hard to get too excited about, with his 22-1-15 record this year – he IS good right now,

though, and not out of the question (if the price is decent). (1) STRAIGHT UP COOL hasn’t been on his game in PA

lately but he drops and draws the pole for his first local try of the year, and he’s done some good here in the past –

possible wake up spot. (3) HECANDANCENCRUISE had no prayer in hirst 2 starts off a long layoff (7 and 8 hole)

but wasn’t bad in start #3 – he did regress considerably at PcD last week, though, making him a major question mark

for tonight. (2) CAPTAIN BATBOY is listed as the 2-1 ML choice but he’s winless on the year, and dull off an easy

trip last week – definitely better value elsewhere. (7) RAYRAY’s efforts were mixed before adding Lasix, and have

been the same since – tough spot. (4) B LIKE CRUISER is having a tough year, and goes with an inexperienced

pilot tonight. (8) YNOTTHISHOS lands Post 8 returning from MN – sticking with others tonight.


RACE 2 – (3) ROGER RABBIT bounces around from one top barn to another and races well for all of them –

couldn’t finish the job last week (when run down by #7) but perhaps he can take advantage of the big post edge and

get it done tonight. (2) TOP ME OFF is almost impossible to predict from start to start but he’s been “good” enough

times this year to pick up 9 wins already – can never be taken lightly, and always worth a look, at a price. (7) STICK

WITH ME KID has had no trouble making the leap from some easier amateur fields to these much tougher 40s, and

was a very sharp “pocket rocket” winner over the top choice last week – if you think Bartlett can find him a decent

trip from Post 7, he’s definitely worth using. (1) BRAVE BY DESIGN had good trot off an easy trip last week and

may land on a kind journey again tonight – ok for exotics. (4) MORNING EDITION is usually good for a solid try,

even if 0 for 7 since arriving from Hoosier – playable underneath. (6) KENOBI moves from Batavia’s leading %

trainer (an incredible 27%) to one of our top barns – may be in a little steep tonight, though. (5) GRINDER needs

easier to be a threat these days. (8) J S HOPSCOTCH lands Post 8 after a pair of empty efforts from the inside.


RACE 3 – (2) YO BETH D had some trouble behaving when first arriving here, then for a couple more weeks in PA

- she’s been able to stay flat in her last 4 starts, however, and she’s clearly hitting on all cylinders right now – she

came up a just a little short here last week, but we’ll look for her to get it done tonight. (1) BULLY BOY HILL has

had breaking issues of his own but he’s also been behaving lately, and comes into this off a pair of 2nds (the last one

from Post 8) – can be a big player here if he continues to stay trotting. (5) BELLISSIMO FACE has proven to be a

fine import for her connections and she brings a 4 race winning streak into tonight (her last line is WRONG in the

program – she cut that mile, and just held off the top choice) – she has a chance to make it 5 straight, but it’ll be a bit

tougher tonight. (4) YANKS DUGOUT should benefit from the class drop but he’s clearly off form, and it’s hard to

know if THIS is the drop that can help him turn things around. (3) PASSIONATE PROMISE makes the occasional

early miscue and that’s what happened last week – chance for a good piece if she can bounce right back. (7) HERO

DOTUS has had an overall disappointing 2024 season – another tough draw may limit him to a smaller slice. (8) RO

DEO HILL was well meant arriving from Ohio last week but ended up parked – a conservative try seems likely here

(6) SOUTHWIND ARTURO finally got good for a few starts but seems headed back in the wrong direction again.


RACE 4 – Good race: (6) TAKE A CLOSER LOOK was helped by an excellent trip in that win 2 back but he did

ALL the work himself last week, even overcoming an early miscue to score in dead game fashion – he’ll likely still

be a decent price (despite winning 2 straight) and he may be worth sticking with one more time. (2) THEFLYINGR

OCK had pace finishing each of the past 2 weeks and is sharper than he may look on paper – could be a spot for a

more aggressive try. (1) YS DO IT RIGHT was a mild 4th after a brief shuffle last week, making his first start on

Lasix– he normally does better in a bit easier, but may be able to be a big player here with the right trip (8) PRETTY

HANDSOME was actually VERY good 2 back (he was way back at the start), then 2nd best to the top choice last

week – he may not be able to reach from out here, but he’s worth including in exotics at a big price. (7) TO THE HU

NT never goes a bad one, and has the speed to at least give himself a shot from out here – another that could have a

real say. (4) THRASHER just has been too lazy for much of his miles lately, and that could leave him looking at

only minor spoils once more. (3) NOWHERE CREEK A probably would need things to go completely his way to be

a win threat...but that DID happen 2 back! (5) PAT STANLEY N is just a bit too erratic for our tastes.


RACE 5 – (3) GHOSTLY CASPER came up a strong 2nd best in his first start in from Canada, despite racing off a

bad date – he was hurt badly by poor cover in his next, but still finished full of trot for 4th, not far off 2nd – may be a

good week to hop on his team. (2) THE HAZLETON ships in from Hoosier where he was facing their best the last

couple of weeks – he won his only start here in 2023, and getting Brennan on board can only help – should be a live

player. (1) DONATO PATRIOT K steps up another notch after winning 3 in a row – he’s more than sharp enough to

handle it, and looms a legitimate threat. (5) ONCE IN A LIFETIME is a talented 4YO that has three 3rds from his 4

local Invitational starts – he should appreciate the class relief, but he’s missed a month and that makes him at least a

little risky at a short price. (6) TACHYON beat the top choice 2 back but did make a break last week – gets a tough

draw for tonight, and that has us leaning towards others. (4) LAVA FIELD was 2 for 2 here as a 3YO but just

4-0-0-1 in 2024 – he’s racing very well out of town, but MAY be just a notch below a few of the top ones. (7)

UNEVERG ONNAGETHIS rallied from 8th to 2nd last week but was greatly helped by a bunch of others pulling and

then struggling on the rim – not sure he can be as fortunate tonight. (8) P L NOTSONICE drops, but gets stuck

outside.


RACE 6 – (1) CELLMATE was hammered on the tote board last week, went to the front and was a very easy

winner – draws the pole tonight, meets nothing scary, and could repeat...at another short price. (8) ON DAYBOO

was a well bet winner himself 2 back, but broke early last week and lost any real chance – he could be a threat

tonight if he can get away cleanly (and his price will certainly go up from out here). (2) THAT DOG WILL HUNT

has been struggling lately but an easy trip from this spot could help him grab a piece. (4) INDIGENOUS

HANOVER just didn’t fire at all in his local debut but the very hot 1:51.1 mile could have hurt – too soon to write

him off, and not a bad one to use in exotics. (6) CLEVELAND B MIKI is still winless on the year and isn’t all that

handy...but a live trip at least gives him a chance to rally for a minor share. (5) COLD CREEK FELIPE was good

here not too long ago but things have definitely gone south lately – in need of a wake up call. (3) FOUT is 9-0-0-0

here this year and usually no factor at all. (7) PINEBUSHDRAGONLIFE is 5-0-0-0 at Yonkers and lands outside.


RACE 7 – Amatuer Race – good race with sharp horses: (2) STEALING was claimed at Ocean Downs on 8/15 well

into a long winning streak, likely with these races in mind – he was stuck qualifying with an Open PACER, so he

still wasn’t bad (even if well back) – he landed on a brutal trip in his first local start but really lost any chance when

briefly offstride while parked to the half – qualified back effectively at Pocono after that, and may be able to take

advantage of the draw to beat a few other pretty sharp rivals. (7) WINDSONG PIONEER strung together 5 straight

sharp amateur races, winning his last pair – was just in too tough in a pair of regular overnights after that, but he

drops back in an amateur event tonight and can be a big threat, even from Post 7. (4) FANATIC picked up 2nds in 2

of his last 3 amateur races, with an 8 hole in the others – if they mix it up a bit, he may be able to show up late and

do some damage. (8) SWISS HOUSE ON FIRE dropped into one of these 2 back and was a sharp wire to wire

winner – may have trouble replicating that from Post 8, however. (3) BONTONI DEGATO S made breaks in his last

2 local tries, added Lasix, then qualified back nicely at Monti – if on his game, he’s another that can be part of the

action here. (6) BUZZ made his local debut a winning one, and has now won 3 of his last 4 – his pilot has been

dominating these races for weeks, but the tough draw (in a good field) may slow him down a bit tonight. (1) IMA

ST ANDUP GUY has ability but is prone to slow starts, miscues, and sometimes both – this is a tough spot, even if

he behaves himself. (5) ALLINDOTIME has had some success in these races but has been idle since 9/7.


RACE 8 – (2) GAINES HANOVER was facing the best up in Canada and more than holding his own – he ships

down to a barn that has thrived with these types for years, and gets an excellent draw – willing to hop on right on

board. (1) CHAKE gets a somewhat puzzling rail assignment considering her excellent out of town form (vs. some

solid stock) – gets a major switch to Bartlett, and could be a big player. (4) DIAMANTE TRIO IT has been super all

year and as good now as at any other point – one of 4 mares in here, and may prove sharpest of them all. (5) KEG

STAND looked like he was ready to go on a serious roll but disappointed 2 back (when a close 3

rd), then was handled conservatively last week – needs to bring his best effort to threaten for the top slot.

(6) PAPPARDELLE skilled the Miecuna, then was a “meh” 4th here on 9/12 – he’s been away for 3 weeks since then, and just seems a

little iffy right now (though still can’t be taken lightly). (7) WARRAWEE XENIA finally picked up her first win

since 2022 two back, just missed to #4 in her next, but now draws Post 7 off a sick scratch – may not be her best

week. (3) QUEEN OF ALL has been solid overall lately, but probably looking at minor scraps at best vs. these. (8)

INFINITY STONE should have been assigned an inside post...then somehow ends up with Post 8.


RACE 9 – (4) DELIGHTFUL TERROR has been very sharp for a while but ran into an impossible trip last week –

a smoother journey would give him a chance to get back to the winner’s circle tonight. (2) MOONLIGHT

SHADOW is a very tough call – he’s used to facing MUCH better than these but he’s been away for a YEAR,

plummets in price, but did qualify back sharply – he may be ready to crush these, but that 7/5 ML price does make it

hard to NOT take a shot against him. (6) HURRIKANEKINGJAMES hasn’t won in a long time but he hit board in

his last pair and a good trip could land him another good piece. (3) NOME HANOVER is 0 for 18 at Yonkers this

year but he’s been finishing ok recently, and may be able to rally for a piece here too. (7) DIAMONDBEACH hadn’t

been a threat in ages but was hammered down to 2/5 three back and was a form-reversing jogburger – weakened in a

fast mile in his next, then reverted to bad habits last week (breaking to the quarter after getting an excellent start) –

suppose he’s an ok bomb for exotics. (1) WAR DAN DELIGHT continues to finally slide down the claiming ladder,

no doubt prompted by his 1 for 31 record this year – still prefer others. (8) SMOKIN BY N has 9 wins this year but

is off form now and draws Post 8. (5) FLIP MY CHIP was a surprising claim 2 back (as he had been finishing

poorly in his local starts) and an even bigger surprise when claimed again last week – moves up in class, and has to

prove he can hang with these.

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