The Empire Report - Monday, August 7, 2023 - Race Analysis
RACE 1 - (4) STELLAR YANKEE has been very good for some time, but stuck with no-chance spots in
his last pair - hard to predict his trip for tonight but if it's a good one, he'll have a chance to pull off a mild
upset. (3) CERTIFIABLE could only manage a 3rd off the class drop last week, but he really didn't land on
the greatest of trips - he's gone plenty of miles this year that would be good enough to beat these, and he
deserves another chance. (2) IMMA BE pretty much turned last week's race into a training mile after
grabbing an easy lead and crawling the half in :58.1 - clearly he's a major threat to take another but since
he'll likely be a pretty short price (while probably facing a much tougher trip), it may not be a bad week to
take a shot against him. (5) GREG THE LEG failed to even earn a check for 4 straight starts before last
week's multi-move, form reversing victory - he's put himself back in the picture again, and worth a look IF
the price remains decent. (6) STRIKING IMPACT charged home to just miss last week after shaking free -
he's a proven winner with these, but faces an uncertain trip from Post 6. (1) HIGH BALLER would likely
be a good fit with these on his best, but his most recent PA tries suggest he may be in tough tonight
RACE 2 - (1) JK STANDINGOVATION drops back down to the level he beat (easily) on 6/19, and would
have probably beaten the week before (if not for a break on the lead) - catches a vulnerable, short field and
he's the one to catch and beat. (5) ARRHYTHMIC SURGE couldn't stay with the winner in the stretch last
week but did hold 2nd (he was also used harder early on than he likes) - his best game is to "sit and rally",
and hopefully Holland will drive him that way tonight - chance if things fall apart a bit. (3) BEACH BOOG
IE got used very hard last time before finding the pocket at the quarter then tired badly - he's a legitimate
threat here on his best effort, and he's worth considering if you think he might bounce right back. (2) ISLA
NDSPECIALMAJOR improved by light years upon arrival from Canada on 6/2, but had recently dropped
in class then made an unexpected miscue last week - was claimed from that race, and it's hard to know what
to expect tonight in his new barn. (4) KEYSTONE PHOENIX is 6-0-0-0 since returning from the layoff but
has raced better than that record suggests - we'll see if a new set of hands helps him tonight
RACE 3 - (3) DEETZY has been razor sharp for a barn that has otherwise been struggling mightily - he
moves to a barn that can generally improve horses from whomever they get them from, and that will make
this guy pretty dangerous....even bumping up to 40s. (2) ONTO EL DORADO N is 0 for 23 this year but he
has 8 seconds and is very sharp right now - he goes for new connections tonight, and maybe they'll have
better luck getting him to the winner's circle. (5) STATEMENT MADE A puts his 5 race winning streak on
the line and he draws outside some very live players - can never ignore a horse as sharp as he is, but he may
be just a tad vulnerable this week. (1) NEVER SAY NEVER N gets an important class drop, draws best, &
gets a fresh set of hands - figures to be right in the hunt from start to finish. (6) DELIGHTFUL TERROR
raced well in his last pair but benefited from easy trips - will need some more trip luck to grab a piece from
this spot. (4) GOTHIC ROCK seems ambitiously placed at this $40K level.
RACE 4 - (1) RHODENA ROAD has been feeling good for several starts but is forced to move up once
again without the benefit of a win - faces nothing too scary tonight, and gets the best draw - might have
found a field he can handle. (6) THRASHER was 2nd to stickout LUCKBEWITHALEX the last time he
was down at this level - he'll need racing luck from out here, but he's still worth using if the price is fair. (2)
SARANAC BLUE CHIP was holding his own with much better just weeks ago but has definitely seen his
form slip recently - the big question is whether tonight's class drop will perk him up, or if he's just not good
enough to capitalize right now. (5) WAR DAN DELIGHT N was a decent 4th off the claim last week, and
the barn's other overnight horse raced well too - willing to include underneath. (4) SO MANY ROADS is 3
for 56 over the last 2 years - ok for a piece, but looking elsewhere for the winner. (3) BENHOPE RULZ N
had been up the track at boxcar prices for weeks....until going off at 2-1 three back and finishing 2nd - he
took his next, but was up the track again last week - pretty much a guessing game right now. (7) MACHEA
SY A certainly fits with these, but will need a lot to go his way to reach from out here.
RACE 5 - Tough race: (7) ROCK DIAMONDS N was used very hard to make the lead last week (:26.3)
then was hurt when caught behind a tired leader to the top of the lane (ended up a decent 4th) - his prior
start was excellent, and his overall work since joining the Super Siblings has been outstanding - chance to
pull this off, with some trip luck. (2) MOONLIGHT SHADOW was an outstanding winner 2 back but gave
way in his last after being used hard early on - could easily rebound from this spot. (5) JUSTASEC N is
6-4-2-0 here at Yonkers and his quick starts have really served him well - chance to be right there once
more, even stepping up in class. (3) FAMILY RECIPE took advantage of picture perfect trips in those wins
2 and 3 back but also came up big last week, just missing to SEMI TOUGH despite the double class jump -
sharp enough to continue to be a threat. (4) ARDEN MESSI N has been very consistent lately and was
quite the overlay in last week's 22-1 victory - probably looking at a smaller share vs. these, however. (6)
OZONE BLUE CHIP isn't in last year's "beast mode", but he's still pretty good lately - may have some
trouble from this difficult spot, however. (1) MULLINAX was 2nd last week, but a very easy trip was the
key - he moves up in class here, and may struggle a bit...even from the pole
RACE 6 - (4) SHNEONUCRZYDIAMND A raced ok from tough spots in his 3 (recent) local starts - fits
well with this very modest $40K field, and he finds a way to grab his wins here every year - could offer
some value tonight. (3) SHERIFF N has a great local history but struggled here in a bunch of starts this
year - came up with a nice victory 3 back, and was very good again last week when a close 3rd despite a
tough trip - logical threat. (1) WYATT J has only one YR start in the past 3 years but did win races here as a
youngster - his Stga. lines suggest he'll fit nicely with these, and it never hurts to have the rail and Bartlett -
does figure to be overbet , though. (2) TOWNLINE ALL GOOD wasn't looking all that great recently even
prior to that lame scratch on 7/24 - solid qualifier, but still leaning to others for the top slot right now. (5)
ADAM CROCKER A has been ok (in general), but seems like he may need to be in a bit easier. (6) BL
UEBIRD RECON had a nice streak recently hitting board in 3 straight but does seem to have leveled off a
bit - tough post tonight. (7) HEART ON MY SLEEVE may need a class drop before we see his best again.
RACE 7 - (2) AMERICAN DEALER N has landed 3 consecutive horrible posts in the Open but finished
with good pace each time - gets both class AND post relief for tonight, and jogged the last time he dropped
down to this level- just needs Buter to let him do his thing. (1) TAKE A GAMBLE started the year winning
7 of 8 starts but is winless in his last 5 (though racing well just about every time)- the main danger from the
pole, but may have to settle for 2nd best (5) SHAKE IT has hit board in 9 of 10 local starts this year but has
just one victory - chance for another good piece, and very playable underneath. (4) CAPTIVATE HANOV
ER already has 8 wins this year but he can also be a little inconsistent when not in the right mood - maybe
3rd/4th? (3) NONE BETTOR A has taken 3 in a row but all were front end scores vs. (much) easier - we'll
see if he can be as effective vs. these tougher foes. (6) LOUS SWEETREVENGE was right there 2nd last
week after kicking in just a little too late - may find himself a little too far back when they turn for home to
be a serious threat tonight. (7) VENIER HANOVER is obviously feeling very good right now but he draws
worst while also stepping way up in class - not usually a recipe for success
RACE 8 - (2) ROCKNROLL RUNA A always acted like he was good enough to win the Open here...and
last week he added that to his resume - the price will obviously come down tonight, but we'll stay on board
as he looks to make it 2 for 2 with Brennan. (6) HELLABALOU fought valiantly right to the wire last week
before coming up a nose shy to the top choice. - this year's Borgata winner remains a very real threat, even
with the worst draw. (1) GROOVY JOE beat a NW5000 field in PA on 5/21 and hasn't missed the board
since then, rocketing up the class ladder and picking up a 2nd and 3rd in his last 2 Open attempts - has to be
respected from the pole in his current form. (5) AMERICAN COURAGE was outleft by #6 at the start last
week, grabbed a charity hole in 4th to the quarter and was no factor after that - the classy 5YO still has just
1 win this year, and continues to struggle to get his season going. (3) ALLUNEEDISFAITH N had no real
excuse when 2nd best 2 back but rebounded with a gutsy score last week - the move up to the Open may
have him looking at a smaller piece tonight, though. (4) SAVE ME A DANCE probably needs a class drop
before we see his best again
RACE 9 - (1) FLOW WITH JOE would look more appealing vs. a bit easier but he's undeniably sharp, and
will be the best price of the main players - perhaps if the top guns slug it out a bit, he can rally by late for an
upset? (2) SAILBOAT HANOVER is always well backed and always a threat...but oddly enough, his only
WIN at this level was when he dead-heated 3 back with POINTOMYGRANSON - remains a major player,
but don't take too short a price on top. (3) POINTOMYGRANSON has been sharp for a very long time, and
his fast starts always make him very dangerous - he'll be happy that he doesn't have to face nemesis JUSTA
SEC N tonight, and is clearly a danger to take these wire to wire. (5) MOTIVE HANOVER stole an easy
half vs. cheaper 2 back to pick up a victory, but broke before the start last week (right after feeling a major
line smack from Bongiorno) - seems a little risky right now. (4) L DEES JACK LOPEZ was no factor in 2
tries at this level since returning to YR. (6) PRETTY HANDSOME scored the 28-1 shocker 4 back - but
did little before, and has done little since then
RACE 10 - (3) C BET HANOVER has done excellent work since returning to YR this spring, even if he's
a little light in the win column (lots of good tries vs. better) - he comes off an excellent 2nd to NONE
BETT OR A, and should be in a good spot for an aggressive try tonight. (5) JAHAN HANOVER is another
that hasn't done a lot of winning lately, but still raced well from some tough spots - should be a very live
player tonight. (2) VIVA LAS VEGAS N is just 3 for 37 at YR but has been coming up with good late
rallies in the majority of his starts lately - has a chance to win this (if things break his way), and a GOOD
chance to at least grab a good piece. (1) WICHITA LINEMAN went sour for a while but has been much
better in his last few - can surely create a good trip for himself from this spot, but may still be a notch
below a couple of these. (4) JAY BRACKEN N has three 2nds from his last 4 starts but is just 1 for 16 on
the season - his owner moves him from one high % barn to another, and we'll see how that works out. (6)
MICKY GEE N has missed a month after s sick scratch - prefer to just watch, for now. (7)
UNDRTHSOUTHRNSUN N draws outside and his owner has decided to take him for a spin - pass for
tonight
RACE 11 - (2) HES SPECIAL has been in career form lately and was just claimed by an owner that has
made a big splash on the scene, claiming the sharpest horses and distributing them among the highest %
trainers - that business plan has been doing very well, and this guy just may fit that pattern too. (5) SHAKE
SPEARE has been a very solid player at this level, though he's been unable to replicate his fire-breathing
victory 3 back in his last 2 starts - definitely a major threat here, but that 8/5 ML listing is a turn off, for
sure. (1) COALITION HANOVER has been limited to smaller pieces for some time, and may be looking at
a similar scenario tonight - the rail draw could definitely help, though. (4) KOOTENAY SANTANNA has
been "ok" in a bunch of recent starts- another likely looking at a smaller slice (6) PINEBUSH LIFESAVER
is still coming up with solid miles, though he hasn't won in some time - the outside draw isn't going to help
(3) TEXAS MIKI looked overmatched coming into last week - Dube pulling him off the cones just made
things even worse.
RACE 12 - (4) DELIGHTFUL DUDE N has been in some impossible spots lately and is much sharper
than he may look on paper - drops, moves inside, and becomes very dangerous with any decent trip here.
(2) SETH HANOVER was a close 2nd in this class 3 back, conceded from Post 7 in his next then won last
week vs. a bit easier - can handle the move up, and looms a solid threat. (5) BALLERAT BOOMERANG is
still off his best form but is getting sharper at these lower levels - finished 2nd in his last pair, and should be
able to make some noise tonight, as well. (1) PRESTIGE SEELSTER lost all chance in his local debut
when driven poorly but has rebounded with a pair of nice efforts - decent chance to land somewhere on the
ticket tonight. (3) DA GHETTO WIZARD goes for a new barn tonight and has always been tough to
predict from start to start - not really sure which version we'll see. (8) LOUIE THE HORSE N is just 1 for
17 this year and draws horribly tonight - minor share only. (6) BUCHANNON HANOVER often has some
pace finishing but may be coming from too far back tonight to threaten. (7) ROSE RUN X CON found a
very soft spot last week and picked up his first victory in a long time - much tougher spot here, however.