The Empire Report - Thursday, October 5, 2023 - Race Analysis
RACE 1 - (5) SLING SHOCK was a good earner at 2 and 3 but has had a little trouble getting his 4YO
campaign in full gear - he did have a few very good starts here this year, and may be in a spot where Buter
can send him to the top...narrow edge in a tough opener. (3) MY ULTIMATE BYRON A went a very good
mile for 3rd in is local debut and the recent import appears to have some upside - definitely one to consider
if the price is fair. (2) SAMHARA N appreciated the class relief last week, rallying nicely for 2nd behind
the runaway winner - very logical player from this spot, but note his 1 for 16 local record this year before
accepting a short price. (6) DESPERATE MAN was an outstanding Canadian 2 and 3YO - he only picked
up 2 wins and $127K in his 19 starts at 4, and clearly he's been having trouble hitting top form at 5- he
debuts tonight for a barn that has done amazing work with fresh stock, and clearly there's no shortage of
ability with this guy...bad date and bad post could be stumbling blocks, however. (1) RIFLEMAN ships in
sporting Tioga lines that should make him a decent fit here - chance to grab a share with the inside draw.
(8) BETTORROCK certainly fits well with these but he's listed at 3-1 ML from Post 8 and that has us
leaning more towards others (for value). (4) KOOTENAY SANTANNA was a little better last start but his
overall form just hasn't been up to par. (7) GAMBLINGTERROR just seems buried in this spot
RACE 2 - (5) QUEEN OF ALL took a while to find her best game in 2023 but she's been hitting on all
cylinders since re-qualifying in late August (after a couple of miscues) - she (handily) beat this class 2
back, and gets a pass for last week (caught behind a quitter on the final turn) - she may get a little rough on
a turn at times, but still has a solid chance to beat these. (6) WHAT SHOULD I GOO has been hit with
some inconsistency lately but she did jog 2 back and anything close to her best would make her a big threat
tonight. (4) NO MAS DRAMA is generally a peg below the top pair but she's very consistent, handles any
trip, and could be next in line should the top two falter. (3) DREAMONHIGH is capable of big miles at
times but her local record is a bit spotty, and she's missed 4 weeks (scr. sick) - leaning towards others. (2)
ANDOVER CONTESSA would probably be more comfortable in a bit easier - chance for a small piece,
though. (1) LADY JETER remains basically a "field filler" at this top level
RACE 3 - (2) PIVOTAL has made it very clear that he belongs in this class with a string of three straight
2nd place finishes (all with different trips) - he catches a modest (and short) field tonight, and Stratton may
be able to get him over the top. (3) IN MY DREAMS was too far back to threaten in his first start off the
claim but finished with good trot last week for 3rd (after shaking free on the final turn) - legitimate threat
from this spot. (6) DC ANNA was an opportunistic (but sharp) winner here on 8/26 - returns from PA off a
sharp rallying 3rd, and can be a player tonight if the trip goes her way. (1) P C FREE WHEELING's lone
recent win came on the lead, in a weak NW5000 field - her 2nd place finish last week was primarily by
default, and it would be hard to endorse her (on top) tonight at that very low 2-1 ML price! (4) DRACO S
was an easy 8 hole winner last start (at a big overlay price!) but he hasn't raced in a month, steps up in class
and has exited our leading barn - leaning towards others. (5) LOS BALLYKEELAMIGO seems badly
overmatched, and actually is eligible for the bottom class
RACE 4 - Good race! (2) SWEET BOY BEN shippied in sharp and raced big in his YR debut, right there
on the wire after a tough first over trip - steps up a notch but facing a field pretty equal to the last one...one
a of several with a chance to take this. (3) B NICKING can be a little inconsistent/unreliable but he grabs
his share of wins and seconds every year, and this is a spot where he can be a big threat...if he brings his
best game. (4) SOUTHWIND ARTURO has been a rock solid performer all year long, and was a dead
game front end last week- he's another that's "stepping up", but that still fits beautifully - it'll all come down
to trip. (1) NEW HEAVEN continues to thrive since the barn change this summer - was a decent 4th last
week, and would likely have been 2nd if not for a final turn miscue 2 back - drop, rail, and not impossible.
(7) ROSE RUN XTRA was coming up a little light at the end even in his "good" starts before last week's
disaster - he returns on Lasix, and that may explain some of his recent issues - can't blame anybody looking
to try him at a big price. (6) SWEET SOUL DAVID has appreciated dropping from the Open, hitting board
in his last 5 starts - only ONE was a win, however, and tonight's draw may limit him to a smaller slice. (5)
TORRONE is having a solid 4YO campaign but may find this bunch slightly tougher than he'd prefer
RACE 5 - (5) VALI HANOVER has been stuck in the back in GOOD fields the last several starts, but still
always finishing with good trot - he finally drops back in for the $50K tag, and should find this spot much
more to his liking - worth using here, assuming he's not overbet. (6) EPOS OSTERVANG DK is hard to
fault with 2 wins and 5 seconds from his last 7 starts - obviously a threat every week, from any spot. (3)
CANTKEEPMIASECRET was no factor last week but may not have been all that revved up from Post 8 -
she's beaten this class at GOOD prices in the past, and will likely be a decent price tonight...one to consider
(4) HUSTLENOMICS has raced well in all 4 starts since arriving from PA, but still hasn't been able to
replicate that terrific win in his first local try - may have to settle for a smaller slice once again. (2) BELLA
CAVALLA shipped in from Canada sporting solid form but wasn't backed all the well in her local debut,
and never really grabbed the bit - too soon to give up on her, and pay extra attention if she's taking better
tote action this time. (1) NEWSBOY hasn't been on his game for the last 4 starts - draws the pole, but will
need to have a major wake up call to beat these tonight. (7) PERRON finally dropped back in for $50K last
week, was well supported but lost all chance with an early miscue- has his work cut out from Post 7 tonight
(8) CRESCENT BEAUTY is unpredictable from week to week but even her best effort would probably fall
short starting from all the way out here
RACE 6 - (5) TUGGIN ON MY HEART was no factor in his first try for the Dynamic Duo (42-1 from
Post 8) but was hammered down to be the 6/5 favorite in his next start, blasted right to the top and only
gave way grudgingly through the lane in a very quick mile - will look to make amends tonight, and may be
able to take these coast to coast. (1) REIGNING DEO rallied very nicely for 4th after sitting 8th last week
and is looking at a much better trip with the move all the way inside - very logical threat. (6) WAR DAN
DELIGHT hasn't won since being claimed for $30K on 7/24 but he has raced well a bunch of times - would
have liked his chances a lot more with a better draw, but still a threat for a good chunk of this. (7) STRAIG
HT UP COOL is another that would have looked a lot better with an inside post - he's definitely sharp
enough for a chance at the upset IF the trip somehow falls his way. (4) BUCHANNON HANOVER was no
factor last week but he's capable of better - good one to throw in for 3rd/4th. (2) GINGER TREE PETE has
been struggling for a while, and would need a major form reversal to be a serious threat here. (3) ICE HOU
SE is better than that last (non) effort but still seems a bit overmatched vs. the top ones in here
RACE 7 - (3) STORMY KROMER has won a zillion of these Opens, has been sharp for ages (just no
chance last week) and somehow is assigned to draw for the INSIDE posts - we'll hop on board, hoping he
can cash in on the generosity of the race office. (5) NOWS THE MOMENT is hitting on all cylinders again
after taking some time off to start the summer- he's won 10 of his last 20 local starts (including his last pair)
and looms a very dangerous rival. (6) ALDEBARAN ZEUS A represented Australia in the International
Trot but that was a month ago and it's his ONLY start since May 26th (in NZ!) - Bartlett goes with him, but
it would be hard to take a short price tonight! (1) CREDIT CON has been a solid player at this level most of
the year, and steps back up off a confidence building, perfect trip victory over cheaper last week - the draw
could make him a big player tonight. (4) EUROBOND has finished steadily the past 2 weeks for small
pieces - chance to do the same here. (2) ABRUZZO had gotten really sharp but his a speed bump with an
early miscue last week - we'll see how he bounces back tonight. (7) HL REVADON blasted from Post 8 last
week but tired after finding the two hole - may elect to go more conservatively this time
RACE 8 - (3) FAMILY RECIPE has recently been holding his own with the likes of NANDOLO N, LOUS
SWEETREVENGE, SEMI TOUGH, etc., etc. - drops down to a soft NW7500 field and while he may not
win tonight, he'd be pretty hard to go against in this spot. (1) BETTORBUCKLEUP has been too far back
in all his recent starts but still usually finishing pretty well - should be able to have a much bigger say here.
(5) ROLLING WITH SAM gets both post and class relief, and that should put him right in the hunt for a
piece of this. (4) ALEX TYE has been racing hard all year and probably isn't on his best game right now -
still, chance to pick up a piece tonight with an easy trip. (2) DA GHETTO WIZARD had been fairly
consistent recently...prior to last week's clunker - we'll see if he can rebound from that poor effort. (6) IDE
AL FUNDING hasn't been sharp but does drop a bit - the draw may limit him, however. (7) GENIUS
MAN lands all the way outside after failing to beat a horse in his last 2 starts
RACE 9 - (6) FOR A DREAMER is a very solid player at this level whenever he can work out a
manageable trip - doesn't start from the best of spots tonight but if Siegelman can leave enough to just
improve a bit at the start, he may be able to take his 2nd in a row. (8) ABBEY D is the "x factor" - she
hasn't raced the same way twice since arriving here 6 starts back but she's thrown some big efforts, and is
capable of winning even from out here....IF she can show up on her best game. (4) KOSHER MAHONEY
really thrived upon arrival this summer but has become a little more in and out at this higher level - gets a
pass for his last (no holes after leaving), and CAN be a player here with a better journey. (3) IM THE MUS
CLE is a dangerous player when he can hit the lead but there are just some weeks when he's sluggish off
the car, and never really gets into the hunt (like his last) - possible in here, but would want a decent price to
use him on top. (7) MISSION VOYAGE wasn't bad from an impossible spot last week but lands in another
rough spot tonight - you might consider him if really spreading in the finale. (1) MUFASA AS was a bit
better than expected last week and draws the pole tonight - not ready to use him on top (just 1 for 25 here
this year), but may be worth considering for the bottom of exotics. (5) INFINITY STONE seems to need
much easier fields to be a serious player. (2) JIVE NINETY FIVE was already gapping before the miscue
here 2 starts back - just seems ambitiously placed at this level.