Wednesday Empire Report

soaofny • October 4, 2023

The Empire Report - Wednesday, October 4, 2023 - Race Analysis

RACE 1 - (2) DONATELLO HANOVER was just 1 for 32 as a 3YO but has recently started to figure

things out at 4, picking up a couple of recent PA victories (while racing well almost every start) - he figures

to be a good price in his YR debut, and may be able to pull off the upset in a solid NW4 opener. (5) CALD

ERONE's first local start (back in May) was a 15 length, 1:56 blowout....he looked poised to have a big

year but he started to tail badly shortly after that - his last couple at PcD suggest that he may be turning

things back around, and he definitely is worth using tonight. (6) BONANZA was a $600K yearling that

raced once at 2, and never started at 3....he ended with our leading trainer for his 4YO campaign and has

taken 4 of 5 starts so far (including last week's local blowout over much easier) - he faces much better here,

and we'll see if he's ready to elevate his game some more. (1) IM AN ANDOVER "got hit with the deck"

last week and parlayed a dream trip into victory - he's always shown ability, and does have a chance to be

part of this IF he's not overdriven early on. (8) FIVE FISH SPECIES has hit board in all 7 local starts but

really had no excuse to get beat on the lead last week and now starts from Post 8 - may have a tough time

getting in play tonight. (7) TIMONIER arrives from Canada with lines that suggest he could fit with these -

the terrible draw may result in a very conservative steer, however. Both (3) LIVINGONTHERAIL and (4)

STRONGERWITHLNDY probably need easier fields to be serious players.


RACE 2 - 9/16ths "Dash For The Cash": (2) HUDSON PHIL may or may not be able to get around

DIAMONDBEACH at the start but he's pretty good right now, and should be in a decent spot turning for

home in this extremely unpredictable sprint race. (4) STATEMENT MADE A may not be the quickest

leaver "on paper" but he does have Bartlett driving tonight, and that could help him get away swiftly - even

if forced to race a bit off the leaders, he may still be able to beat these tonight (6) THINKBIG DREAMBIG

would have had a much better chance if this was a standard one mile race but this is a pretty brutal draw for

a short dash - not sure he can find a winning trip from Post 6. (1) DIAMONDBEACH has been close to top

form in ages, and did revert to bad habits last week - not sure he's good enough to wire these right now, and

there's a decent chance he'll run if Buter guns him too hard at the start. (3) BLUEBIRD RECON can leave

well when "sharp", but he just doesn't seem on his toes these days. (5) STOP STARING seems to need

easier right now, and the draw isn't great either.


RACE 3 - (4) GEORGIA THOMPSON was a 1/5 jogburger in her first local start then followed that up

with a career best 1:52.4 victory at PcD- still (barely) fits this NW2 class, and looms a $2.10 winner against

this very soft bunch. (5) RIVER OF FEAR flopped in her first 5 local starts but was a better (front end) 3rd

in her next, then rallied for a (distant) 2nd in her last - may be able to beat the others in the battle for 2nd.

(6) EA AUDIT failed to impress in her 6 local tries but returns from Fhd. off a pair of victories, gets a

switch to Marohn and may be good enough now to contend for a board spot. (2) DUCK INTO THE NITE

wasn't too bad in her first local try but was terrible in her next - we'll see if a return to Brennan can help her

find a better effort (3) LIL RED ROCKNHOOD moves to a new barn after failing to threaten (at big prices)

in her last few at Stga. - not really sure what to expect from her. (1) CHILLED PROSECCO makes her YR

debut and seems prone to horrible starts....which may not bode well for her at The Hilltop.


RACE 4 - (5) SIMON SAYS HANOVER has hit the wire first in 3 of his last 4 starts (brutally parked in

the other), and that last victory was simply bruising - hard to go against him right now, even in this talented

field. (1) SOUTHWIND PETYR chased the top one from the pocket last week and was able to hold the

place spot after that one drew off in the lane - definitely a good chance for some deja vu. (2) JMS FINAL

TREASURE has been very sharp, and wasn't far off 2nd in last week's vicious 1:50.2 mile - another good

draw could land him the exotics once again. (6) RJ SPORTS IMAGE has shown that he CAN race well

from off the pace, but just had no prayer last week - another tough spot may limit his output once again. (3)

ILL DRINK TO THAT has done his best work vs. cheaper this year - at least the inside draw gives him a

chance at a minor piece, with an easy trip. (7) GREG THE LEG is an outstanding 25-10-7-1 this year but

he draws horribly after missing a week and may have to wait for a better scenario before we see his best

again. (4) KINGSVILLE has been struggling in this class - look for him NEXT week, getting a drop.


RACE 5- (8) MARINER SEELSTER seemed destined to go out quietly in the last few months of his career

but the 14YO served notice with last week's victory that there's still some life in his legs - seems unlikely

that he can pick up the $43K he needs to retire a millionaire, but he can still pick up a few more wins -

maybe even from Post 8? (5) TOATSMYGOATS wasn't at his absolute best last week (3rd behind the top

choice) but it was still a nice effort off a scratch and qualifier - could have a big say here. (1) WHAT

ABOUT BOB drops back down to his preferred 15s, draws the pole, and has to be considered a legitimate

threat from this spot. (3) LETTUCERIPRITA A took advantage of a fall-apart race to win his last (last

quarter in :31 seconds!) but has been "meh" overall - he is a streaky sort, so at least give him a look if the

price is juicy enough. (2) OURRHYTHMNBLUES N seemed to be tailing then was scratched sick on 8/25

- shows a dullish return qualifier, and we're definitely leaning towards others. (4) SEAFARER looked

horrible behind the gate last week, did manage to get away pacing and make it to the lead, but caved badly

once into the stretch - he's eligible to show up (reasonably) sound on any given week and jog at this

level....but that hasn't happened in some time. (6) FULLBACK rallied nicely for 2nd in a race that fell apart

completely but he just has way too many recent duds to back with any confidence right now. (7) CAMPOR

A goes for a new barn tonight but would need a serious form reversal to be a threat, especially from out

here.


RACE 6 - (1) DIAMANTE TRIO IT certainly had NO prayer when used as a "field filler" in the FM Open

Trot but her other overnight efforts have been solid, and better than most of the efforts of her main foes

tonight - should be the one to catch and beat from the pole (in a class with a condition written entirely to

make her eligible). (6) WISTERIA HANOVER had been doing good work before that unexpected miscue

last week - if she can shrug that off, she can go back to being a solid contender. (2) TOMMY BOY HANO

VER has better success out of town with NW1/2 types but the same can be said for the locals in here -

draws inside, and has a chance to land on the ticket in his YR debut. (5) GOTTA HABIT used a perfect trip

to JUST beat a weak bunch last week (after tiring badly the start before0 - needs to up his game a bit to be a

serious player here. (3) BEACON BEACH just missed in his local debut, won his next start, but feels like

he's taken a step backwards since then - needs to bring that better form to grab a decent piece here. (7) TO

MY CREDIT was 0 for 15 before winning his last at Stga. - seems cheap (and draws poorly), but we'll see

if the barn change can help a bit. (4) SQUABLE is 1 for 71 and generally safe to toss for anything but 3rd

or 4th. (8) PAPAS CAMDEN draws Post 8 after a dull one in his YR debut.


RACE 7 - (7) BENICIO struggled here in a couple starts this spring but clearly returns from Pocono a

much better horse - she has gate speed (and a driver not afraid to use it) and we'll give her a slight nod in a

pretty tough race to decipher. (6) SWEET HOME was a sharp 3rd at PcD last week (the top choice was the

winner) in her first start back with the barn that raced her previously - she's had some breaking issues at

times, but a clean mile could put her right in the hunt. (5) HALLELUJAH HANOVER (like several of her

barnmates) seems to have fallen off form lately - o the flip side, she's an outstanding 9-5-3-0 here at YR,

and does draw inside the top 2 choices - would consider at the right price, (2) MARATHON MARY has

been much more relaxed lately and her last couple of starts are showing the benefits - a good trip makes her

a player here (at least for a good piece). (1) PRINCESS ARONA exploded to a 9 length demolition in her

first start off the barn change and was right there through hot fractions last week before tiring in the lane -

jury still out on how well she fits with these better ones. (3) TARGARYEN EXPRESS seemed to be on the

upswing but her last couple were just "meh" - probably looking at only minor spoils here. (4) SHOWMEM

AGIC seems a bit below this crew.


RACE 8 - (3) LAVA FIELD got sharp in Canada this summer then recently moved to a very sharp local

outfit - he's 2 for 2 (in PA) since arriving, and seems capable of extending that streak to 3 against this very

well matched bunch. (6) CREATIVE VENTURE was handled conservatively last (after a miscue the start

before), ended up with a first over trip as a result but was still a very good 3rd - could be even sharper here.

(7) IN A TINY WAY was well backed last week but just didn't bring her best effort - she's capable of better

and the price tonight will be a lot higher...consider if you think Buter can find her a decent trip. (5) DESTI

NYS DARLING benefited from beautiful trips the last 2 starts and cashed in with a pair of victories - may

not be as fortunate tonight, but has earned respect with those 2 wins. (1) BAR COINS improved by leaps

and bounds immediately upon joining this barn but has been pretty hit-or-miss in his last few - the "good"

version can be a player here...but is that the one that'll show up tonight? (2) WANIA has been doing solid

work but was scratched for the 2nd time in 3 weeks last start - hard to know what we'll get from her tonight.

(8) HOOFBEATS DE VIE hit the top last week and almost pulled off the front end score - have to believe

he'll land on a tougher trip from out here, however. (4) JACKED just lacked pop in his local debut last start

- seems capable of better, but there's just so many contenders in here.


RACE 9 - (1) LYONS JOHNNYJNR is the tepid choice in the finale - he hasn't been sharp, but he really

hasn't been "bad" either - drops, and draws the pole in a pretty iffy field. (6) SHARK PLAY is a very tough

call - he had been struggling for months before grabbing a win and close 2nd in 25s - was no factor in 30s

last start and now double drops down to 20s -- did a wheel fall off, or are they just looking for a possible

winning spot? (7) TWIN B SPEED DIAL was a terrific 13-3-6-1 here last year but that was for a different

barn - he showed he can still handle lesser at Tioga, but is definitely a question mark in this $20K claimer.

(4) READY TO RUMBLE N recently rattled off 3 straight at Batavia bit ships in off a break, and last

week's total collapse - another that's tough to predict for tonight. (2) LEAVE AND ROLL was a surprise

claim for $15K last week and now steps up to try the 20s - may be a bit below these. (8) SHANWAY N has

his good moments in this class but faces an uphill battle starting behind the 8 ball tonight. (5) BETTER UP

hasn't been close to top form in weeks - will need a major wake up call. (3) BETTER B SWIFT has been

struggling week after week - waiting for some better signs.

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