The Empire Report - Thursday, December 1, 2022 - Race Analysis
RACE 1 - Very tough opener! (7) KATYS DELIGHT was sent off at 4/5 for her local debut and despite
looking pretty vulnerable throughout, she was actually drawing off easily at the end - Kakaley knows her a
little better now, she'll be a much better price, and may be worth sticking with. (8) BETTORS HEART N
won her lone start here in 2020 and looked like a solid Open mare at the time...things haven't really been
the same since then, however, and she's just 1 for 18 locally over the last 2 years- that being said, she's used
to facing much better, and that 20-1 ML makes her worth at least a look! (6) SLYMARS DRAGON was
sent off favored for her YR debut but just never really grabbed the bit and was a disappointing 4th - the
Super Siblings have had some time to work on her, so perhaps she'll be sharper this time around. (1) GING
ER TREE LIZ was terrific for much of the year but started to tail a couple of months ago and hasn't been
able to get back to her best form - she certainly has a legitimate chance from this spot, but she also figures
to be significantly overbet. (2) STELLENBOSCH is just 1 for 13 here over the last 3 years but was an ok
3rd last start arriving from PA - maybe a small piece? (3) MONEYMAKEHERSMILE was dull in her local
debut, perhaps because she was exiting one of the highest win % barns in the nation- we'll see if she's better
the 2nd time around. (5) POPPY DRAYTON N exits the 50s but she never really belonged there in the first
place - maybe can rally for a minor piece? (4) LADYBELUCKYTONITE is just 1 for 30 this year, usually
losing to lesser - threat for minor piece only
RACE 2 - (3) SMOKING JET hasn't enjoyed the same success in NY that he did in Ohio, but it's certainly
not like he's been "bad" - this is the softest spot he's found locally, and we'll look for him to finally get to
the winner's circle. (2) NOWS THE MOMENT really prefers to be on/near the lead so those last few starts
in the Open really aren't bad - in easier tonight, and may prove the main danger to the top choice. (1) SECR
ET BRO was off a month to his last start at PcD and still able to get his picture taken - that's a sure sign of
his current fitness, and the rail draw puts him in play for a good piece of this. (4) TIMESTORM got lost at
the back of the pack in Dover last week but he's been very good here lately, and he should be able to
bounce right back with a contending effort tonight - becomes a big threat should the top two both falter. (6)
BARN HALL has been very solid overall lately but he really should have been able to win his last, and
now draws outside in a tough field - smaller piece only tonight. (5)BARRY BLACK has been feeling pretty
good again, but he's missed 4 weeks and figures to need this start - especially in this solid field
RACE 3 - (8) THE AMERICAN EAGLE draws Post 8 off 24 days and showing some pretty weak recent
form - on the flip side, he's moving to a barn that has some uncanny success with fresh acquisitions, and he
also was racing well for some time prior to the recent tail off - at 15-1 ML, he may be worth a stab against
some uninspiring main rivals. (2) HL MAMMOTH got over the hump with a victory last week after a pair
of 2nds just prior to that - he's a logical threat here, but does figure to be overbet. (3) MUSCLE DAN had
put together a series of good efforts before getting pressed into submission last week - could easily bounce
back with an easier trip, and does look appealing at that 6-1 ML price. (5) QUINCY MARKET continues to
show speed for a very high % barn but just hasn't been nearly strong enough at the end of miles - he may be
able to beat these tonight, but that 9/5 ML price is extremely unappealing. (4) HALLWAY BABE had a big
wakeup call last week, almost delivering the 44-1 upset - we'll see it was a fluke, or if she can find another
good one here. (6) HEADOVERBOOTS AS never seems to race the same way twice - if things get too
testy up front, he'll have at least a chance to rally by late at a juicy price. (1) LIVINGONTHERAIL makes
his 2nd start away from one the nation's leading barns and really wasn't racing all that well for his previous
team - prefer others. (7) COUNT JOGGING raced well here on 9/22 but threw 5 clunkers before wiring a
weaker field in PA last week - lands in a tough spot returning to Yonkers.
RACE 4 - (6) MAKE IT EASY has been taking $$ and racing pretty well every week up in Canada, likely
facing better than these - he lands in a barn that usually improves their new stock significantly, and seems
like a pretty automatic selection against these. (1) BENA LONGTOM COMIN doesn't look all that sharp in
Ohio but he'll make his YR debut tonight for the "comeback barn of the year", and may show a lot more for
his new connections. (2) WALK WITH ME has hit board in 5 of 6 local starts, though hasn't been able to
win - continue including him underneath. (3) SQUABLE's poor career slate is well documented, but he's
picked up 4ths in his last pair, draws well, and may be able to squeeze out another small slice tonight. (5)
POCAHONTAS rallied nicely for 2nd in her local debut but regressed the next week, finishing a dull 6th -
barn is having a tough season so far (2 for 30), and we'll be considering this filly for a minor award only.
(4) SANTA MONICAAS has some ok tries at PcD but did make a break in her last and will be asked to try
the half miler - guessing she'll be handled pretty conservatively this week. (8) A ONE A lands in a new
barn and adds Lasix but he's just 17-1-0-2 to start his career, and we'll just observe in his local debut. (8)
ARABELLAS GLIDER is 0 for 19 this year and lands Post 8 - wait for a better spot to consider
RACE 5 - Tough race: (4) CLASSIFIED MATERIAL was stuck in the back in a fast mile last week so
we'll give him a pass - his recent form has otherwise been solid, and he seems like a decent value play off
the claim - one of many possibilities in here. (2) TWIN B SPEED DIAL has seemingly been 1st or 2nd for
what seems like forever - would have certainly been the selection here had he not (finally) been claimed
last week, leaving at least some doubt as to how he'll race for his new connections. (5) AMERICAN WIGG
LE rattled off a pair of bruising front end scores (vs. 20s) before getting stuck in the back last week (vs.
25s) and just disappearing - he'll go for a new barn tonight, and it's very tough to know if he'll just bounce
right back with a big one, or if that last mile was a bad omen. (3) JOJOS PLACE was a good 3rd after
being claimed away from the most successful barn at Yonkers but was no factor at all in his last pair - we'll
find out tonight if he's actually gone south, or if the bad posts were the cause of the last 2 efforts. (1) ROCK
INMYSHOE moves from age-restricted 40s to "open" 25s and the move is probably pretty parallel - he
draws inside, and a good trip could help him land a decent piece. (8) STATE SENATOR returns from PRc
and probably is a good fit with these....may have trouble getting close enough to threaten, however. (6)
SHARK PLAY drops below the level of the claim and that should help...unfortunately, drawing outside
several main foes figures to hurt his chances to improve. (7) FOX VALLEY INFERNO can do some
damage when the trip goes his way, but that probably won't happen from Post 7
RACE 6 - (3) FIFTINI just missed at 16-1 two back then proved it was no fluke when she charged home to
win her last at 15-1 -- meets an evenly matched group here but she'll probably still be a pretty decent price
and is worth using once again. (5) STRONGERWITHLINDY shipped in sharp and raced very well here
too, coming up 2nd best to the top choice - wouldn't be surprised if he was able to take this, if the trip goes
his way. (1) BACKSTREET PLAYER was able to win as the odds on choice last week but he's probably
raced better in several of his recent losses- he's a legitimate threat to take another, but he'll likely be overbet
and this is definitely an evenly matched bunch. (6) SAULSGOOD won 17 of 28 (mostly in Michigan) and
is no stranger to the half mile oval - he's eligible to improve over last week's front end 4th at Pocono, and
he's another that will be offering some good value tonight. (2) SAID N DONE AS showed some guts in his
two NW2 victories then rallied for 3rd up at this level last week - draws well, gets Bartlett tonight, and
would be no surprise at all. (4) CIEL BLEU has flashed some ability but does seem like he's still a bit of a
work in progress - would give him a look IF the price was long enough. (7) FAVORITE AUNT has way
more ability than she's shown far in her 3 local starts - waiting for some better signs before hopping back
on her team. (8) B THREEWINDS has a win and a 2nd from her 2 local starts but steps up to NW4 while
also landing Post 8, and that's a pretty tough hill to climb
RACE 7 - (5) QUEEN OF ALL hasn't won in a while (and has even been a little inconsistent lately) but her
last try was very good, and she's proven that she CAN beat these - the price should be right in a race filled
with some uncertainty. (4) DREAMONHIGH went a very promising mile when 2nd in her local debut but
the 3YO filly laid a complete egg last week, giving way on the lead then folding badly - she's another that
will offer a better price if willing to give her a shot at redemption. (7) GREY has been a completely
transformed horse ever since joining this barn in September but encountered her first disappointing try
when she made a break early on last week - have to respect the possibility that she bounces right to beat
these, but this may not be a bad week to tread a little lightly with her. (2) PLUMB is listed at 20-1 ML but
she rallied very nicely for 3rd and 4th two and three starts back, and had a good chance to be 1st or 2nd last
week if not for that costly miscue on the final bend - would definitely consider her if spreading a bit in here
(6) HEY LIVVY was well backed last week and did get the job done...but was helped greatly when DREA
MONHIGH gave way without any resistance, and then PLUMB broke (behind) her on the final bend -
could be vulnerable. (1) LADY JETER has the pole, but still seems unlikely with these
RACE 8 - (3) THUNDRA has been away since mid-October and that qualifier doesn't really tell us much --
but she was facing MUCH tougher before the time off, and couldn't have landed in a softer spot...worth a
shot, as long as she isn't overbet. (4) BETTORSHIGHLIGHT N has been pretty camera shy since arriving
in the U.S. but she's at least been in the hunt a few times, and does add Lasix for tonight - maybe that can
get her over the hump? (1) TENTHOUSAND ANGELS was pocket 2nd here on 11/3 but just wasn't sharp
enough in a pair of NJ starts after that - almost has to be a player from this spot, however. (2) TRIZZLE
TRAZZLE has been racing okay at Fhd., even if vs. easier - she draws well for her YR return, and did win
1 of her 6 starts here earlier this year - possibility. (7) FLOSSIE N had a few good starts here earlier this
season (6-1-2-0) but her current out of town form is "meh", and she draws poorly tonight - not sure she's
sharp enough to overcome Post 7. (6) SHORTYS GIRL has a couple of "ok" recent tries, but need a better
draw in order to be a more serious player. (5) E R HILARY picks up a piece here and there but hasn't been
able to find any kind of real groove in some time. (8) COOLNCALCULATING N moves to a new barn
upon returning from Hoosier and also draws the worst spot possible - on "watch mode only" for tonight
RACE 9 - (2) VINNY DE VIE is a streaky horse and he's on one very impressive looking roll right now -
he steps up another notch but his last two (effortless) victories suggest that he's sharp enough right now to
handle the assignment. (4) HOOLIE N HECTOR has been on an impressive roll of his own, albeit for 2nds
and 3rds behind some strong winners - good chance for another big chunk tonight. (1) KINDA LUCKY
LINDY returns from PcD where he hit board in 5 straight, including a win last week - he's been camera shy
all year at Yonkers, but this definitely a spot where he can land somewhere on the ticket. (5) STREET GOS
SIP is an Open type when on his best game, but he's yet to perform at that level for his current connections
- he tired to 6th after cutting the mile (at 2/5) last week, and remains vulnerable at the moment. (3) MOSTI
NTERESTINGMAN has some spotty looking form right now but his barn is starting to really heat up again
- willing to throw him in underneath. (8) NEXTROUNDSONME turned in a couple of good ones at PcD
but returns at a level above where he was struggling here recently, AND draws Post 8 - wait for a better
spot. (6) INFINITY STONE gets a pass for getting parked last week but he'll be racing TWO classes higher
tonight (and from a bad post) - sticking with others. (7) CRIME FIGHTER seems to need to be in easier to
be effective.