Monday Empire Report

soaofny • August 19, 2024

The Empire Report – Monday, August 19, 2024 – Race Analysis

RACE 1 – (5) TWIG raced well in his first 2 tries in from Chester, finishing behind the “good” GENIUS MAN –

wasn’t bad at all from a hopeless spot last week then was quickly re-claimed by his previous connections – gets a

good draw in a modest field, and could be worth a shot here. (3) SULLIVAN is generally very solid at this level and

gets significant post relief for tonight – very logical threat, but may also end up overbet. (1) NOWHERE CREEK A

would be a major danger from this spot IF on his game, but he’s struggled in 3 starts since a recent claim – will we

see a wake up call, or will he continue to struggle? (6) THREE GRAND is good right now, hitting board in 3 straight

– he also moves outside, and that may limit him a bit...could use some trip luck. (2) KOUNT BLASTER picked up

both his first 2nd and first win of the year recently, but facing much easier – still needs to prove he can contend at this

higher level. (7) TAKE A CLOSER LOOK has enjoyed a terrific season but was already showing some signs of

decline prior to being scratched sick from his last– feels a bit iffy right now. (8) YS DO IT RIGHT is definitely more

comfortable in 20s, and may need a (much) better post to be a significant player at this $30K level. (4) WAR DAN

DELIGHT got some post relief last week but his 26-1-1-5 record this year suggests he may need a little more.


RACE 2 – (4) UCANTTOUCHTHIS shipped in sharp from “The Ridge” and was very well meant for his new barn,

moving past the stands only to end up 3rd over, then kicking home full of pace from an impossible spot – he meets

several good ones in here, but definitely a good value horse to consider. (6) DANCE ON THE BEACH is right in

the hunt week after week, picking up more than his share of victories – some trip luck makes him dangerous, even

from Post 6. (2) BECHERS BROOK A wasn’t nearly as effective last week with a tougher trip, but he’s won 3 of 5

local starts and returns to the barn that won with him 2 back – could easily rebound and beat this. (1) SMOKIN BY

N loves to win races (9 already this year) but most have come vs. the 20s, and a couple in 30s – the rail may help

offset the move up to 40s tonight, but he’ll need to prove that he can beat these better ones too. (5) SPORTS FAN

was ultra well meant and razor sharp in that win over lesser 2 back – he was hurt by dullish cover moving up in class

last week, and was only able to manage a 3rd...possible here, but would want a better price to use him on top. (7) IM

A POWERPLAY A rebounded from a disappointing try 2 back with a victory last week, but that was on the lead,

from the pole – will need a lot to go right to repeat from out here. (3) SAN DOMINO A rarely wins, but an easy trip

always gives him a chance for minor spoils.


RACE 3 – (4) SONNY WEAVER benefited from an easy trip last week but still did well to kick home strong for 2nd

– he has an excellent Yonkers history and figures to be a better price here than the other “main player” – we’ll give

him the narrow edge. (1) KOMODO BEACH was outmuscled by NANDOLO N and MAMBA 2 back but there’s no

shame in that – he made amends with last week’s front end score and is more than capable of stepping back up a

notch and taking another – he does figure to be very heavily backed, though. (2) SPORTY M THREE returns from

PA looking sharper than we last saw him here, but may still be a notch below the top pair– next in line? (3)

KIMBLE A may need to be in a bit easier to threaten for the top prize but he’s shown that he can rally for pieces

against these types when the trip is easy enough. (6) THE REAL ONE took a while to pick up his first win as 14YO

but he’s now taken 2 straight, and is feelin’ pretty good...not sure he can pass ‘em all from out here, though. (5)

SADDLE UP won his first start for his new connections (DH) but was no threat at all in his next and quickly was

moved to a new barn – he moves up another level, and we’re leaning towards others.


RACE 4 – Wide open! (5) JUSTASEC N made his Yonkers return a good one, securing a pocket trip to REAL WIL

LEY then finishing 2nd to that oft-winning foe – he’s one of MANY that could take this if the trip goes his way. (2)

JUST ENUFF STUFF never got involved after drawing Post 7 last week but he gets major post relief for his 2nd start

off the claim, and he’s already been 1st or 2nd twelve times this year – could be a much bigger player tonight. (4) SHI

NE A LIGHT was insanely good 2 back (somehow 2nd despite being parked every step) but wasn’t anywhere near as

good last week – if he brings that “A Game” tonight, he can be a major threat. (6) SHAKESPEARE may be

overlooked from this bad post but he’s racing well right now, and the price will be juicy – worth considering. (1) PE

ACE OUT POSSE was no threat in his first 2 starts off the long layoff but wasn’t “bad”, either – he drops in for a

tag, and will surely be aggressively handled...will he be up for it? (3) BIG DREAM FELLA landed on a pretty good

trip off the claim last week but didn’t fire his best shot – he’s having a terrific year, and it would be no surprise to see

him bounce right back. (7) OPTICAL ILLUSION N is being listed on the bottom but only because of the draw – he

really is as capable as anything in here.


RACE 5 – (2) GINGRAS BEACH has held his form remarkably well despite a long run of terrible posts – he finally

gets a good draw, and gets reunited with the pilot that put that 1:51 mark on him back in June – upset chance in a

race with no stickouts. (1) CAPTIVATE HANOVER is generally in the hunt every week but just hasn’t been at peak

form and it’s been a while since he’s found the winner’s circle – maybe he can get over the hump tonight with the

right trip? (5) POINTOMYGRANSON showed much better life in his last pair after a recent rough patch– he figures

to be handled very aggressively tonight (with the class drop) and it would surely be no surprise to see him take these

wire to wire – playable, if not overbet. (3) SAMHARA N beat better than these not long ago, and comes into tonight

off a pair of 2nd place finishes – he’s always a good price, and never a bad one to use on your tickets. (4) BIG GULP

will attract plenty of attention off the class drop but he disappointed off drops in his last pair – just feels like others

are offering better value...at least on top. (7) CENTURY HEINEKEN has proven that he can beat these types but he

may need a better draw to do so – could be facing a tough trip from out here. (8) HANDLELIKEAPORSCHE

struggled in his only 2 YR tries and lands Post 8 for his return...wait for a better spot (but congrats to driver Patrick

Ryder, who just picked up his first Hilltop victory)! (6) STELLAR YANKEE could use class and post relief.


RACE 6 – (2) PLEASELETMEKNOW probably hasn’t won as often this year as his connections would have liked

but he’s banked over $150K in just 15 starts, and is generally right in the mix every start – the move inside gives

Kakaley options, and maybe this is a good week to give him a look on top. (4) VENTURESOME ARDEN N was no

match for a fire-breathing VERDUN 2 back but he certainly came up with a good one last week, picking up his 8th

victory of the year in dead-game first over fashion – he’s a threat in this class any week he’s in to go. (5) MAMBA

has certainly taken to Yonkers, picking up 2 wins and a fast closing 2nd (behind NANDOLO N) from his 3 local tries

– he takes on tougher tonight, but a good price makes him worth at least a look. (8) ITS A ME MARIO perked up

with a good one to win 3 back, then was super again in his next (charging home late, even if only for 4th) – definitely

a bit disappointing that he couldn’t run down #4 last week (after a perfect trip), but the big issue tonight is the draw

– may have to settle for a smaller slice. (3) JOEMIKIYOURSOFINE had no chance in his only local try this year

but he’s done excellent work out of town, and may be able to have a bigger say tonight with the inside draw – ok for

exotics. (1) GUNG HO was an okay 4th (after a shuffle) in his local debut but came up empty last week – leaning

towards some oof the more established players here. (6) STAY GROUNDED has been stuck too far back in all 3

local tries and is looking at that same dilemma tonight. (7) WESTERN ERA has only 1 start in 5 weeks and lands in

a brutal spot for his Yonkers debut.


RACE 7 - (3) MY ULTIMATE BYRON A has been good for some time, but he’s been REALLY sharp in his last

couple – he carved out a sizzling clip 2 back and almost lasted (in a 1:51 mile) then MAY have beaten 2X Borgata

champ HELLABALOU last week if he had shaken free inside just a bit sooner (after leaving from Post 7) – may be

sharp enough right now to knock off a few “bigger name” rivals in here. (5) AMERICAN DEALER N returns off a

sharp try at Pocono last week and was racing very well here in July before going out of town for a couple of starts –

he lures Bartlett off of #6, and we’ll look for a big one from him tonight. (4) BOILING OAR just wasn’t at his best

last week, even if facing better – his form has been just a bit inconsistent the last couple of months, but he still can

bring a BIG effort...dangerous for sure, but also may be overbet (9/5 ML). (1) HIMSELF N took a while to start

racing well in the U.S. but he’s become a reliable weekly performer now – no reason he can’t be right in the hunt

from start to finish. (6) CHIMICHURRI N was handled conservatively last week but still finished full of pace for 2nd

– lands a tough draw in a good field, loses Bartlett, and may be looking at a much smaller share tonight (2) FAMILY

RECIPE raced well in a bunch of starts after a brief freshening – he’s been off 3 weeks, and also faces a very tough

bunch tonight. (7) THIS IS THE PLAN would be a surprise from out here looking at his recent efforts.


RACE 8 – (4) DUNKIN made breaks in his last 2 local starts but had no problem shrugging them off for his trip to

Indiana...where he behaved perfectly and charged home to win the $315K Dan Patch (in a career best 1:49.1) – he’s

a winning machine...but he’s also had too many local miscues (usually before the start) to ever merit complete

confidence! (2) CAMARA MOMENT was an excellent first over winner in his (1:51) local debut and he handled

the jump up to this level very nicely last week, full of pace for 4th (behind some good rivals) – could make some

noise here too. (3) VERDUN certainly raced “well” for 3rd last week...it just wasn’t AS sharp as a couple of his

scary performances (in recent weeks) – still deserves plenty of respect! (8) RACING RAMPAGE has done little

wrong since shipping East to our leading trainer – he returns from Ohip after a nose loss in the $100K Charna, and

has to be feared even starting from all the way out here. (1) BIRTHDAY was right there several times in this top

class so it’s basically unfathomable that he was assigned the rail for tonight (while others with far less impressive

resumes were forced to draw for 2-8) – he still feels a bit below a couple of the others, but the very charitable post

can at least put him into the mix for a good piece. (6) ADAM TWELVE has an amazing 22-8-12-2 local slate but

that “on the board” streak will be put to the test tonight with the tough draw, in a good field! (5) PANETTONE

HANOVER looked better 2 back then used a ground saving trip to pick up 3rd last week – he’s good right now, but

likely still below a few of the others. (7) THE GOOD DOCTOR is racing well for sure...but must be wondering

how HE ends up with Post 7, after never beating anything better locally than a NW2-4PM field.


RACE 9 – (5) DESPERATE MAN is 7 for 8 here this year and the one race he lost (the Borgata Final), may have

been his most “impressive” performance of them all (parked every step through vicious fractions and somehow still

3rd!) – he remains a pretty automatic selection until somebody actually beats him in one of these overnights. (1) CA

RABAO A struggled upon arrival in the U.S. for a long time until something finally clicked a few weeks back and

he picked up his first stateside win...followed by two more victories, then last week’s 3rd in the Invitational...a race

he MAY have been able to win if he had room at the cones– maybe he can complete the exacta? (2) ULTIMAROCA

took back last week and never threatened after getting away 6th – if he’s more aggressive tonight he may be able to

grab an easy trip...with a chance at a decent chunk. (6) ROCKNROLL RUNA A has been almost impossible to

predict from week to week this year, and even just a quick look at this last 4 starts will quickly confirm that – he

may be in a tough spot tonight, even if the “good” version shows up (he was 2nd to the top choice here 3 back at

35-1). (4) WHATS STANLEY GOT A has been a steady performer lately, but does face somewhat of an

unpredictable trip tonight. (3) SUMOMENTSOMWHERE A feels a bit overmatched against a few of these at the

moment.


RACE 10 – (1) HUNTERS HERO put in a good bid last week but wasn’t able to fully sustain it into the lane – he

drops, figures to control the action from this spot, and looms the one to beat...but at a pretty short price. (3) BRAE

VIEW BONDI A rallied nicely for 3rd from well back on 8/2 then was pacing well late again last week, behind 3

solid foes – maybe a chance for the mild upset here with the right trip. (4) OCEAN RIDGE N drops from the 50s but

has struggled for much of the year (2 wins in 2024, after a 17 win season last year) – this could be a wake up spot,

but hard to get excited about a wager at that 9/5 ML price. (2) MAXIMUS RED A would normally be a very good

fit here but he just hasn’t clicked at all in the 2 starts since the recent claim – a wake up call is needed. (5) BUCHAN

NON HANOVER is racing ok lately but his 1 for 29 local slate is hard to ignore.


RACE 11 – (5) FUNATTHEBEACH N has clearly lost a few miles on his fastball but he still can summon up his

back class when in the right spot – as noted here in the past, the tote board usually provides clues as to when this guy

will bring his best...the guess here is that he’ll bring a good one tonight. (3) THUNDER HUNTER JOE used a good

trip (while also adding Lasix) to pick up his first local victory of the season two back – he was in a no-chance spot

last week, but may be a bigger player tonight with the move inside (and Bartlett does take him, over a couple of

others. (1) POUND FOR POUND dropped to an easier spot last start and was a convincing wire to wire winner –

he’s missed 3 weeks since then, and also moves back up in class...making him at least a bit questionable for tonight.

(6) NONE BETTOR A should appreciate some class relief but the poor draw certainly doesn’t help, and he just

hasn’t been on top of his game lately – may still be vulnerable. (2) SOUTHWIND PETYR looked super two back

for his new barn, jogging in a sharp 1:51.4 – he regressed significantly last week, however, and now steps up one

more class – make sure to get a good price if he’s your play. (7) BRUE HANOVER has ability but he may need a bit

better post to be a serious threat at this level – at least worth a look at that 20-1 ML price, though. (4) WINDSUN

RICKY drops a peg, but is probably still a bit higher than his typical comfort zone. (8) IGNATIUS A has been

racing well for a while, but will have to pass ‘em all tonight (coming from last).

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