Monday Empire Report

soaofny • October 4, 2021

The Empire Report - Monday, October 4, 2021 - Race Analysis

RACE 1 - (1) MONEYMAN HILL has been in two no-chance since arriving from Canada but wasn't bad

in either - drops, draws the pole, and we can expect to see his best effort tonight. (5) DECISION DAY beat

this level back on 7/20 and have been facing better ever since - finished crisply in NW10000 in last, and

looms the main danger tonight off the class drop. (2) AVATAR J was a solid 2nd behind the dropdown

winner upon arrival from Canada - moves up a notch but draws inside, and could easily outperform that

20-1 ML price. (3) ORILLIA JOE returned in fine form from PA but threw a clunker last week - classy

11YO is eligible to rebound with a much better effort tonight. (6) CAPOZZO would normally be a major

threat at this level but he just wasn't sharp at all last time - draws outside here, and will need to be much

better to be a player tonight. (7) WATERWAY drops a notch but he's still trying to find his form after a

recent layoff - Post 7 won't help his cause. (4) WAR DAN DELIGHT N is just 1 for 31 at YR over the last

2 years - may be able to take home a minor piece with an easy trip. (8) RUNRUNJIMMYDUNN N draws

Post 8 after missing 2 months - will look much better next week, in NW5000 (hopefully with a better post).


RACE 2 - Good race! (2) WEONA SIZZLER A came up a close 2nd best last week despite a tough trip -

overall recent form has been excellent, and there's a chance he may end up with a pretty nice trip tonight -

decent value play in a race with several possible winners. (3) PAT STANLEY N was probably a little bit

overmatched in the Open, but this crew should be right up his alley - if the pace is contested a bit, he may

end up in position to make his good late kick pay off. (6) JOESSTAR OF MIAA shipped in sharp and was

a well backed winner in his Hilltop return - if he can get off the car quickly enough to shoot right to the top,

he'll be a dangerous player here. (1) TALBOTCREEKWHISKEY has been racing well here all year.. and

now he's doing it at the higher levels - rail draw makes him an obvious threat to replicate last week's victory

(5) CAVIART LUCA is probably in a spot where he can try to leave, but that may also get him involved in

some harder early use than he'd prefer - would never be a shock, but definitely leaning to a couple of others

(4) FLYING FINN N may be a notch below a couple of these, but a bigger concern is that he may be

coming from too far back for more than a smaller piece.


RACE 3 - (3) MARINER SEELSTER was claimed from the Super Siblings and instantly went from a trio

of razor sharp efforts to a complete dud - was claimed that night by an up and coming young trainer who

appears to have invested $30K of her own money to take this guy...if he bounces back to his "good" form,

he'll be tough here. (4) THISJETSABOOKIN probably would like to be in a bit easier but several of these

are in the same boat - finished ok from an impossible spot off the claim last week, so maybe he can be a

bigger player with the move inside (but note that he's camera shy at YR). (6) PROVOCATIVEPRINCEN

took off the gate last week and immediately had no chance - if you think he's leaving tonight, he could offer

some decent value. (8) GINGER TREE PETE seems pretty at home in 30s - will need lots of luck from out

here, but willing to throw in at a big price. (5) CAVIART STETSON put in a big back side move last week

to get his picture taken at 45-1 (for a very crafty outfit) - steps up to face tougher here, will be a shorter

price, and you know what they say about missing the wedding! (2) VENIER HANOVER was reclaimed at

a $5K premium from his last - moves up, draws outside, and may have trouble getting himself in play

tonight. (1) WAGON MASTER is 7-0-0-1 at Yonkers - may need an easier spot, even though the rail draw

can't hurt. (2) MACHIAVELLI moves up off the claim and really does his best work with a bit cheaper.


RACE 4 - (5) GHOST DANCE was trapped too long last week and 3rd was really all he could have picked

up - good speed try the week before, and a winner the start before that -- definitely comes into this with the

best form, and seems the one to knock off. (1) LATE MAIL N hasn't been on his game but he moves to a

trainer-owner/trainer combination that has been one of the big stories here in 2021, and this is one of the

few barns that can take a horse from the Dynamic Duo and still thrive - could be in for a wake up call here.

(2) ROCK THE NITE is clearly a very good fit with these, but he's been away for almost a month since his

last start - suppose it's a good sign that he returns for the same $30K price....possible. (8) ROCK N TONY

finished well last week from an impossible spot for his new barn - would definitely be giving him a longer

look if not for the horrible post! (6) DARK ENERGY is very good right now, but really prefers to be in a

little cheaper - not a bad bomb for 3rd/4th, though. (3) RECORD YEAR just hasn't been clicking at all

lately - needs a big wake up call to become a player here. (4) HEREITTIZ has been away for 24 days and

seems a little cheaper - will just observe in his YR debut. (7) SPORTS BETTOR is in decent form, but he's

another that generally does his best work with somewhat easier competition.


RACE 5 - (8) TONY TOO TALL is undeniably razor sharp right now - it seems like Bartlett should be able

to find a way to improve position at the start...and if that happens, this guy would have as good a chance as

any to take this - seems like a good value play in an otherwise tough race. (2) TERRITORY ran into a very

tough trip last week and can be excused for what may look like a "meh" effort on paper - his overall form

has been terrific for weeks, and looms a very real threat tonight. (4) REAL LUCKY N has been a major

player more often than not, and was just in an impossible spot last time - hails from the same connections

as LATE MAIL N (Race 4), and remains a threat almost every time he's entered. (5) CLASSIC PRO really

took to his last barn and delivered back to back outstanding efforts - moves up a notch after being taken by

the Dynamic Duo last week, and we'll see if he can keep the ball rolling against these too. (6) GUMPTION

kept coming last week to run down a quality rival - makes the logical move to claimers after that win, and

will have a shot in here IF things get testy up front. (3) BELTANE A is just 1 for 23 this year and that

includes plenty of losses to lesser - small piece only. (7) GIVENUPDREAMING is camera shy, prefers

cheaper and lands Post 7 - tough spot! (1) LUCK N ROLL K showed little in 2 local tries this year and

returns to YR having missed a month - pass for now.


RACE 6 - (2) AMERICAN BOY N was super 2 back (off the claim), blitzing to the top with a big rush and

burying a $40K claiming field - just toured the oval from Post 8 last week but the move back inside should

result in another big effort - the one to beat. (4) ELWELL wasn't bad last start and now gets both class and

post relief - handles any trip, and could be a legit player tonight. (3) DREAMFAIR CHARRO has been

solid for some time, drops down from 50s, and is absolutely one to include in exotics. (5) TOPVILLE

OLYMPIAN was 2nd best to the top choice 3 back, had Post 8 in his next, then was a solid 4th vs. the 50s

in his last - another with a good chance to have a say in here. (1) HIGHLAND TARTAN should have some

confidence returning from Chester off a win over cheaper - will surely use his speed from the pole to work

out a good trip, and he's a logical one to include underneath. (7) OUR CORELLI N has been hitting on all

cylinders lately, and picked up his first local win of the year last week - was claimed from that race, and

gets stuck with a terrible draw tonight for his new connections - may have to wait for an easier spot. (6)

KEYSTONE PHOENIX just hasn't been clicking at all, and it's hard to make a case as to why he'll just

reverse form tonight. (8) BALLERAT BOOMERANG moves up in class off a weak try and lands Post 8.


RACE 7 - Solid Open field! (4) LEONIDAS A can be a very good horse when on his game and he's

certainly been looking like his good self since being returned to his favorite trainer recently - can race from

on or off the pace, and should be a fair price in this well matched field - the good draw may give him the

edge. (8) JACKS LEGEND N paired with Kakaley to win an Open here back on 7/26 - gets assigned all the

way outside (with several sharp players to his inside) but he's still worth considering IF the price is juicy

enough. (1) STARS ALIGN finally seems to be hitting on all cylinders, even if vs. cheaper - he wired a lot

of fields in the midwest last year, and there's at least a chance he's sharp enough to just blast from the pole,

and take these a long way. (6) BELMONT MAJOR N was facing age restricted "NWPM" types at PcD just

4 starts back...but effortlessly was able to transition to facing OLDER pacers here at Yonkers, almost

winning the Open in his very first attempt - has earned a lot of respect! (5) NANDOLO N recovered from

an early miscue last week to come back on for 4th - hard hitting import can never be counted out of the

equation. (7) FUNATTHEBEACH N benefited from a perfect trip to win a "watered down" Open 3 back,

but was hammered at the windows last week and was a VERY impressive winner in a 1:50.4 mile - may be

looking at a rough journey from Post 7, however. (3) ON THE CARDS N is now 8-2-2-4 here at YR and

comes into this off a 3rd place finish....despite getting parked the mile from Post 8 -- still has to prove he's

fast enough to hang with these, though. (2) MICKY GEE N feels like he may end up with a shuffle trip

from this spot...and it's still a guess as to whether he can still beat this type.


RACE 8 - (4) TELLITSABB rallied as best he could from an impossible spot last week, and that was on

the heels of a pair of sharp 2nds - gets some post relief tonight, and seems capable of beating these if the

trip goes his way. (1) SUGARTOWN left very hard from Post 7 last week only to grab up and make a full

retreat to last - still only lost by a handful of lengths, and that should translate to him being a very solid

player from the pole tonight. (3) BEACH BOOGIE beat this class 2 starts back to make it 3 wins in a row -

didn't fare so well vs. the 100s last week, but he drops back down and may immediately perk right back up.

(5) ROBBIE BURNS N avoided being claimed for several starts but was taken for $50K last week - might

have a tougher time vs. this bunch, and doesn't seem all that appealing (from a wagering standpoint) as the

5/2 ML choice. (7) KEY ADVISOR is very sharp right now, but probably looking at limited actions after

drawing Post 7. (2) FOREVER FAV landed on a very tough trip last week and gets a pass for not finishing

any higher - guessing that he's more likely to regress this week, rather than go forward, however. (6) YAC

HT SEELSTER returns from Canada and he sports a 5-2-1-2 local record this year - may find this bunch a

little too steep, though. (8) UPTOWN FUNK is undeniably sharp, but moves up in class while drawing Post

8 - sticking with others tonight.


RACE 9 - (1) SPRINGSTEEN was in tough spots in his last couple but paced good quarters in both of

them - in a spot tonight where he may get to relax early then uncork his big brush at the right time...and that

may result in a victory. (2) ARTIES IDEAL took a few months off but has returned in fine form - on his

best he can be very tough against these...and he seems like he may be at that point right now. (8) TWIN B

TUFFENUFF has a good local history and is returning from NJ in very sharp form - if the 3-4 horses to his

inside DON'T leave, then HE may be able to quickly improve position at the start - belongs on your tickets.

(3) CARLISIMO drew horribly the last 3X he raced here (in July/Aug) - been sharp enough out of town

since then to at least merit a look in his YR return. (5) THE REAL ONE had alert pace finishing in the

Open 2 back, then was good late in last week's Preferred, when finally free - should be rallying tonight as

well -- but probably for only a smaller piece. (6) KILOWATT KID N has raced well in all 4 local tries but

may be coming from a little too far back tonight to be a serious threat. (4) LISBURN can be a little in and

out but he's gone his share of good miles lately - may just find this group a little tougher than he likes. (7)

WINDSUN RICKY draws outside again and that figures to make him an outsider, again.


RACE 10 - Tough race! (6) SPLASH BROTHER has appreciated NOT being on the lead lately, winning

from the pocket 2 back, then almost winning again from way back in last - talented 4YO may come out on

top with the right journey tonight. (1) SHADOW CAT had been sharp for several weeks so last week's

lesser effort was a bit of a surprise - he drops right back in the box, draws the pole, and a quick return to

form may be coming. (4) FUNKNWAFFLES has put together a series of sharp tries, hitting board in 4

straight - no reason he can't continue to thrive tonight. (5) GRAY DRAGON is now 5-2-1-2 locally after

last week's sharp front end score - he steps up to face better here, and we'll see how he handles the

assignment. (8) SOUTHWIND OZZI hasn't enjoyed any real local success in a handful of starts but he has

plenty of ability, and would have been selected higher had he not drawn all the way outside. (3) PEACE

OUT POSSE wasn't sharp last week and just doesn't seem to be at his best right now - minor piece? (7)

COVERED BRIDGE ships in sharp but hasn't raced since 9/11 and draws Post 7 - prefer to just watch, for

now. (2) THE WILD CARD has to prove that he can hang with these tougher foes.


RACE 11 - (5) PATRIKTHEPIRANHAA was sent off favored (in NJ) for his U.S. debut and did not

disappoint, rallying to win while establishing a new 1:48.4 lifetime mark - classy import will be heavily

favored to make it 2 for 2 tonight. (1) HICKFROMFRENCHLICK was empty from off the pace last week

(Post 8) but will likely get back on his game from the pole tonight - should be an up close player from start

to finish. (4) SO MANY ROADS will probably be ignored here but this is the kind of spot where he can

save ground, then kick home late for a piece. (2) REDBANK BLAZE A steps up off the sharp first over

score and the good draw gives him a shot at grabbing a decent piece tonight too. (3) KERFORD ROAD A

is pretty good right now, and is another that is very usable underneath. (7) OSTRO HANOVER is just 1 for

22 and still well off his best game - might be able to rally late for a small piece with the right trip. (6) JUST

PLAIN LOCO held his form for a long time but MAY be slipping a bit - tough spot here, either way. (8)

BOILING OAR ships in and draws Post 8 off a pair of recent duds at Chester - just observing, for now.

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