Monday Empire Report

soaofny • September 26, 2022

The Empire Report - Monday, September 26, 2022 - Race Analysis

RACE 1 - (1) SAILBOAT HANOVER was claimed on 8/20 by an owner/trainer that hadn't been seen in

the program for a while - his first start was just outstanding, sweeping from 7th to score at 29-1...he then

moved up to 40s last week and was charging late for 2nd behind the streaking KEYSTONE DASH-- moves

up another level to 50s, but it would seem his current connections have him sharp enough to beat these. (4)

WICHITA LINEMAN has been away for 3 weeks, but it's possible that he just had trouble getting in the

box - he drops to 50s, but that may be because his barn has the absurdly sharp VENIER HANOVER racing

in the 75s - very dangerous here. (5) MANKAT rallied nicely for 4th off the claim last week and fits well at

this level - one to include in exotics. (2) MACH DORO A just took over the lead then faced no pressure last

week, basically just "stealing" a win - can make his presence felt tonight too, but will have a much tougher

time beating this bunch. (3) LONG WEEKEND A had looked off for a few starts but raced better last

week, even if helped by an easy trip - maybe can build off that and grab a share here too? (6) BECKHA MS

Z TAM is just 1 for 21 this year, with that victory coming against easier - bad date and a tough post tonight,

so we're leaning towards others. (7) MIGHTY SANTANA N picked up small pieces vs. easier the last 2

starts - the class jump and poor post will be hard for him to overcome. (8) CINNAMACK has been better

since being claimed by his current connections, but figures to be too far back to threaten tonight.


RACE 2 - (1) NANDOLO N is a legitimate Open performer when right, but it's hard to say how close to

100% he is right now, based on his 2 recent qualifiers, and one start at The Swamp - we'll guess that he's

ready to handle these, especially with the good draw and his regular pilot hopping on board...but not one to

bet the rent money on at a short price. (3) ROCK THE DEVIL has been solid in all his recent starts, and he

finished with very good energy last week - he'll be a decent price here if you think the top pick may be a bit

vulnerable. (2) BRAEVIEW BONDI A was just "good" in that win 2 back (his first for a new barn) but he

was VERY good in last week's victory - he steps up another notch, but the good draw should make him a

contender against these too. (7) THE WILD CARD has some very good recent efforts and does fit nicely -

three weeks off and Post 7 may compromise his chances, however. (4) PACE N PRIDE N's starts have been

a bit all over the place - on his best, he can contend for a piece here....but it's been hard to predict which

version will show up lately. (5) NO LOU ZING toughed out a nice win here 4 starts back and came up 2nd

best to a currently sharp THE REAL ONE the start after that - was no factor in his last pair in NJ, however,

and also draws outside a few main rival tonight - may be looking at only a smaller share tonight. (6)

MIKES Z TAM is one of many sharp horses from this barn, but is probably in too tough here.


RACE 3 - (5) VENIER HANOVER couldn't beat a fat man to a buffet for months....but a switch to our

leading barn led to a complete form reversing win on 8/26 -- and three more victories since then, including

last week's score over Open-types BUDDY HILL and SEMI TOUGH - he'll remain an automatic selection

until he shows any signs of letting up. (7) BLUEBIRD RECON used to struggle to find the winner's circle

here but he's been a different horse the past 2 years, scoring 10X from just 32 starts - he's climbed the class

ladder seamlessly along the way, and a quick start tonight could put him right in the hunt, despite the bad

post. (2) QUALITY BUD just missed after cutting the mile in this class 2 back, and was a solid first over

4th last week behind a pair of good ones - could easily do better than that 12-1 ML price suggests. (6) FEE

LIN WESTERN is good right now, but lands another tough post - will need some trip luck, but he has a

shot at a piece if he gets some. (1) AIR FORCE HANOVER can be pretty unreliable but his best efforts

come from spots like this, and he may be able to stick close all the way for a small share. (8) OZONE BLU

E CHIP is in the best form of his career, but has to deal with Post 8 off a 3 week layoff - would need a

pretty good price to hop on his team tonight. CHIEFS BEACH picked up a 3rd last week in his first try at

this level, but he was helped greatly by the easy trip - the jury is still out as to whether he really belongs at

this level. (4) THE REGULATOR would seem to need a bit easier to be a serious threat (7-0-2-0 at YR).


RACE 4 - Good race: (3) KEYSTONE DASH always hinted at legitimate ability but could never seem to

string together a series of good efforts - something started to finally click back on 8/13, however, and he's

been rock solid ever since, climbing from the 15s all the way to beating the 40s last week - tries to tackle

the 50s tonight, and he may have another class in him. (4) BALLERAT BOOMERANG has been doing

good things every week lately for our leading trainer/driver combination, and another strong effort is

expected for tonight - solid threat. (5) B LIKE CRUISER saw his impressive 5 race win streak come to a

halt last week when stuck with Post 8 - he gets a much better draw for tonight, and he'll be a pretty good

price for a horse that just won 5 in a row - consider. (1) BENJIS BEST is 7-4-1-1 here this year but he's lost

3 in a row, and has missed 4 weeks - barn is always dangerous, but this guy may be a little vulnerable right

now. (8) SHERIFF N has been very sharp for weeks, picking up 5 wins, and 2nd and a 3rd from his last

7starts - he MAY get into some trouble from Post 8, however, so insist on a good price if using him on top.

(2) HEAVENLY SOUND has a couple of recent wins but they were on the lead, vs. softer - probably

looking at only a minor piece with these. Both (6) MACINTOSH N and (7) ROCK LIGHTS both seem to

need much better posts (and some class relief, too) to be serious players.


RACE 5 - (5) WALKINSHAW N isn't the handiest horse, but he is a hard hitter - Marohn opted to just tour

the oval from Post 8 last week, but he'll have more options from this better spot tonight - we'll give him the

narrow nod. (6) SOUTHWIND PETYR had a good 3YO season but took a while to find his form at 4 -

shipped in sharp from PA on 8/30 but could only manage a "meh" 3rd that night - no chance 8 hole the

following week, but he finished full of pace last start in a very good effort - if he can find a live trip here, he

can be part of the equation. (2) CAN BE PERFECT has 3 wins this year and two of them came in June,

when Bartlett was driving - our leading pilot is back on board tonight, and we may see a sharp effort -- not

a fan of that 2-1 ML price, however. (7) BARON MICHAEL had a rough trip last week but still raced very

well to be 3rd - he lands in a terrible spot, but he does have the hot "longshot pilot" on board - worth using

in exotics. (4) MY CARBON COPY N finished up well for 4th jumping up to this level last week - barn

has been sending them out live for some time, so perhaps consider this guy for a piece? (3) RAUKAPUKA

RULER N took off the gate for a couple of weeks but was placed back on the engine last week, and almost

pulled off the 15-1 upset - not sure he'll be able to leave from out here, but getting Stratton back can't hurt.

(3) ALTA BLUES A caught a hot mile off the layoff and was clearly short - may still need another start or

two. (1) GALANTE A is another that was clearly short off his (long) layoff - not sure the post relief here

will be enough to make him an actual contender.


RACE 6 - (3) DINA BOLT N gave it a shot from the 8 hole last week but unfortunately got parked the mile

- still only lost by 4 lengths, and he's been battling much tougher than these for a long time - he'll probably

go off the 3rd choice here, and that makes him a decent value play (2) BETTOR BE OSCAR A is the likely

(heavy) favorite, as the public will (rightfully) hop on to ANY fresh horse this barn gets (since they win

with about HALF of them, often producing 2-4 second improvements) - obviously has an excellent chance,

but just won't be offering any value in here. (1) HICKFROMFRENCHLICK didn't show up for his 2022

season until last month, and it took a few starts to get up speed - his last suggests he's ready to do some

damage now, but he was just 1 for 7 here last year, and figures to take plenty of $$ from this spot - another

with a legitimate chance, but who may be overbet. (4) SANTAFES COACH was aggressively handled last

week but came up 2nd best - can't see him beating the top choices, but a spot somewhere in the exotics is

possible. (5) LEVEL UP has "ok" form in Mass., and does seem a notch below the main players here - we'll

see if Stratton can save ground and take home a minor share. (8) FIZZING N is good enough right now to

be a player at this level, but this is a strong division, and he lands all the way outside - prefer to wait for a

better spot. (7) MAJOR DESIRE moves to a barn that has been quiet for ages, but has suddenly come to

major life over the past couple of weeks - still hard to like his chances from this spot. (6) MARLBANK

ROAD has disappointed more often than he's delivered this year - seems buried tonight.


RACE 7 - (5) STEUBEN HANOVER always goes off at nice prices, despite racing well every week (for

some time) - his chances would go up here if able to leave the gate, but he would still have a chance to

make his late rally pay off, if forced to race from behind - maybe he can pull off the upset this week? (2)

MUSCLE JACK races sparingly, always looks a bit shaky, but has now won SIX in a row since being

claimed back on 6/6 - he's been away for 3 weeks, but has won off these layoffs in the past - the road to the

winner's circle still goes through him (it's amazing that he NEVER gets claimed)! (6) CHAMPAGNE ON

ICE was a pretty high end campaigner not all that long ago - hit a rough patch, but does seem to be coming

back to the top form - races off a bad date here (and draws poorly), but still worth using in exotics. (1)

WILLY WALTON has been very unpredictable from start to start (just look at his last 2 races!) - if he

brings the "good" version tonight, he can grab a piece of this. (4) BLENHEIM was very sharp for a long

time in PA but never varied from 8th in his Hilltop return - much better post tonight, and a quick wake up

call wouldn't be all that shocking. (7) LINDSEYS PRIDE threw a clunker 3 back but other than that has

been very solid - the tough draw may leave him waiting for a better spot, however. (3) LADYS IMAGE has

been 1st/2nd an amazing 32X over the past 2 years....but primarily vs. easier - she may be able to trot with

the locals at this level, but we'll stick with others for this week. (8) ZIG ZAG can be quite "in and out" but

even his "good" version would have a hard time reaching from out here.


RACE 8 - (1) NONE BETTOR A was already racing well so it was no surprise to see him look REALLY

good last week, debuting for a barn that routinely improves new horses significantly - benefits from the

open draw tonight and lands the pole...and he's worth sticking with even bumping up to the top class. (4)

LEONIDAS A was freshened up for a few weeks and that qualifier suggests he'll be ready to roll - he's a

threat to win here ANY time he's in the box (18 for 32 at Yonkers), but he's also eligible to be a tad short

tonight - wouldn't be surprised either way. (3) AMERICAN DEALER N was very well backed last week,

looked like a winner to the top of the lane but just wasn't on his best game and weakened late to 3rd - no

reason he can't be right back in the hunt tonight. (7) JACKS LEGEND N threw a rare "dullish" one 2 back,

but rebounded with a good one last week, finishing with plenty of pace for 3rd - the terrible draw may leave

him looking at only a smaller share tonight, however. (2) THE REAL ONE seemed like he finally lost a

few steps earlier this year but the mega-classy 12YO did make it back up to the Open (and pick up a DH

win two back) - probably a notch below a few of these tonight, however. (6) COVERED BRIDGE moves

to new connections after winning his last 4 starts (vs. lesser) - he draws poorly, and he's just 1 for 9 here at

Yonkers - we'll just observe, for now.


RACE 9 - (1) IMSTAYNALIVE is just 1 for 18 here this year but he was very sharp last week (when 2nd),

his barn has been hot, and his main foes in here look a little risky - not a bad week to give him a look. (3)

ALWAYS AND AGAIN has been good for most of the year, and certainly for most of this summer (facing

better than these) - his last wasn't quite up to par, however, so it's hard to say if he's going to start tailing off

a bit, or if it was just an off week - could easily rebound and beat these, but be careful about taking too

short a price right now. (2) DELIGHTFUL TERROR is another who has done plenty of good work with

better, but he comes into tonight off a sick scratch, and that MAY hurt his performance a bit - hard to say.

(6) SOHO LENNON A qualified back nicely after 3 months off and just missed 2nd in his first start back -

he's won plenty of races here over the years, and this class is right up his alley - definitely deserves

consideration at that 20-1 ML price. (4) REIGNING DEO has been racing well every week lately as he

continues his climb back up the class ladder - definitely one to include in exotics. (5) CANTSTOPLYING

used a pocket trip to get up in time in his last start but was scratched sick after that, and is facing tougher

tonight - leaning towards others. (7) MICKY GEE N was having a rough 2022 before going on the shelf at

the end of April - we'll just keep an eye on him, for now. (8) SARANAC BLUE CHIP seems damned if he

leaves, and doubly damned if he doesn't - tough spot moving up in class.


RACE 10 - (7) FOR A DREAMER just didn't show up in his first 2 starts off the claim (vs. 75s) but perked

right back up dropping back down to the 50s last week, charging home for 2nd behind the wing-sprouting

winner - he should be a decent price from out here, and we'll give him a shot in the finale. (1) BIG BAD

SWAN threw a did last week but was a winner the previous 2 starts - have to respect the possibility that he

bounces back to his winning form from his 4th straight rail. (2) GEMOLOGIST left the gate last week but

broke before he could hit the top - a clean mile tonight would make him a player. (6) COCKTAILS N

DREAMS charged home to just miss 2 back, then finished alertly again last week - definitely worth using

in exotics in her current form. (3) P L OSCAR made a break last week and had some mixed form prior to

that - his barn has been coming to life, however, so maybe he's a good one to include in exotics tonight? (4)

JUST MAYBE THE ONE was well backed two down in his 2nd start off the layoff but came up dull -

looked a little better last week (from Post 8), and we'll see if he can improve a bit more tonight. (5) BLUEB

IRD JESSE beat these on 8/22 but hasn't been nearly as good since then - sticking with others. (8) CREDIT

CON was a solid 3rd last week but with an easy trip from a good post - may have trouble replicating that

from all the way out here.

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