The Empire Report - Thursday, April 27, 2023 - Race Analysis
RACE 1 - (4) MUSCLE DAN drops out of the Brennan Series and lands in a field where he should be very
comfortable - made a costly miscue last week but was an excellent 3rd the week before behind a couple of
horses that would be heavily favored in here - solid chance with a clean effort. (7) HP RUNNING MASS
shipped down from Canada riding a 3 race winning streak but landed in a spot WAY tougher than this for
his local debut, and gets a total pass for not being able to get involved- legitimate chance tonight, even from
Post 7. (2) NICE GUY EDDIE has real ability but he tends to get way overbet most weeks, and makes a lot
of breaks - he definitely can beat these if he behaves....but it's hard to keep taking short prices with him. (3)
VELVET STYLE doesn't look bad "on paper" but he really hasn't been able to get back to top form yet in
2023 - definitely ok to use underneath, but would rather try others on top. (6) WICKENBURGH was really
good for a bunch of starts but his last few have seen him really go in the wrong direction - if you think he
may reverse course tonight, the price will surely be attractive. (1) TAP ME BLUE CHIP scored big upset
wins in 2 of her last 3 starts but that was vs. much easier, with a lot of things going her way - may not be as
fortunate tonight! (5) ER NO MORE was a game first over 3rd in his local debut but in a much softer spot -
not sure he can be nearly as effective in this field
RACE 2 - (5) CREDARENA picked up back to back wins not long ago but has been settling for smaller
pieces in his last few - the other main players in here tend to be pretty unreliable, so perhaps tonight this
guy can find his way back to the winner's circle? (4) WANIA has hit board in 9 of 10 local starts but despite
his trainer's very high win %, this guy has only been able to get his picture taken one time - he's a player
every week, but hard to back on top at too short a price. (3) LADYFLIX has a pair of local wins but both
were actually in pretty slow miles - another that's a very logical player, but risky at a short payoff. (1)
AVACAKES has yet to really fire in her 4 starts this year - she's capable of better, and maybe tonight she
can have a little bigger say starting from the pole? (6) HILLOFA KNOCKOUT was able to pick up a 2nd
last week but sitting the pocket (starting from the rail) really helped his cause - may not be able to match
that from Post 6. (2) EL MISSION GODDESS won a NYSS at Buffalo as a 2YO, but also made breaks
over 4 other half mile tracks - feels a little risky arriving from the big track.
RACE 3 - (8) NOWS THE MOMENT has been on an outstanding form spree for a LONG time, and that
miscue 3 back was definitely an anomaly - he's shown that he has the speed to overcome the outside posts,
and certainly meets no "killers" tonight - hardly a "cinch", but still the one they have to beat. (5) HERCULI
SA broke before the start in her first race of the year but recovered very nicely to be 4th - qualified back
super at Pocono then finished very well here last week, after being handled conservatively - it feels like
she's ready for a big effort, and this might be a good night to give her a look. (2) CREDIT CON came up a
little flat in his last couple but returns tonight on Lasix - he's outraced his odds many times recently, and is
a good one to consider for exotics (at a nice price). (1) MISSISSIPPI STORM has come a little short in 4
straight vs. cheaper, but tonight's good draw puts him in position to land a good trip...and another good
piece, despite the class jump. (3) HEY LIVVY remains a bit of an enigma, capable of being a big player
OR a non-factor on any given week - one to gauge from this spot. (6) NO MAS DRAMA has been very
sharp lately, and that includes a 3rd in last week's Open - tonight's draw MAY slow her down a bit, but
don't be too quick to leave her out of the bottom of exotics. (4) WARRIOR ONE has plenty of back class
but a few of these may be a little too tough for him right now - he'd never be a shock, but we are leaning
towards others. (7) B NICKING gets the worst of the 3-7 draw and figures to be an outsider this week
RACE 4 - (4) PURAMERI has been unpredictable at best but she takes a double-drop here, and her last
victory did come the last time Zeron was on board (1/20, in NJ) - as good as any in a race where it's hard to
"love" anybody's chances. (2) BETTERB CHEVRON N was used most of the mile last week and still was
able to be an easy winner - on the flip side, she beat a soft bunch and didn't look all that sporty, at times -
legitimate threat, but wouldn't take too short a price. (5) SARAHS LILLY raced pretty well on 4/13 - was
well backed last week but never really looked "strong", then broke on the final turn - too soon to write her
off, but another that would be hard to back with confidence right now. (3) FEAR HER TOUCH was sent
off at 39-1 last start, seemed like an outsider but was able to use a good trip to win going away (in a "fall
apart" race) - steps up now (and is off a sick scratch), but she's worth at least a look if the price is long
enough. (6) MAGICAL MISTRESS comes into tonight showing a pair of last place finishes surrounding a
sick scratch - if you think a wake up call is coming, she's certainly in the right field to give her a chance. (7)
ALWAYS BE TRUE was sluggish last week and now lands all the way outside
RACE 5 - (2) SOUTHWIND PETYR just improved by leaps and bounds in his first start for the Dynamic
Duo, giving winning machine TAKE A GAMBLE all he could handle before coming up just a nose shy at
the wire - a repeat of that effort would make him very tough tonight. (6) PLEASELETMEKNOW showed
plenty of ability in a short 2YO season then followed that up with $429K year at 3 - he was an excellent
2nd in his second start of the year (also behind TAKE A GAMBLE) and he definitely seems ready to win --
we'll see if he can overcome the draw to do it tonight. (1) KINGSVILLE won his way right up to this Open
class with 4 straight wins - was a solid rallying 4th two back, but not quite as sharp last week...could easily
rebound tonight starting from the pole, and belongs in exotics. (3) KOOTENAY SANTANNA was a well
backed pocket winner in his YR debut - moved up to this tough level in his next and rallied well for 4th off
an easy trip - chance for another piece tonight. (4) MULLINAX is tempting off that good looking blowout
in PA last week but historically he needs to be in easier here to be a serious player - sticking with others for
the top slots. (7) GREAT SOMEWHERE has won 9 of 19 local starts and was on a fine form spree before
hitting a bit of a speed bump last week (after getting outbrushed by TAKE A GAMBLE to 3/4s) - could
easily bounce right back, but tonight's draw may leave him waiting for a better spot. (8) SETH HANOVER
was able to pick up 3rd off a pocket trip last week but that was from the pole - hard to see a way into the
race for him from Post 8. (5) STATE SENATOR had been doing good things but was just terrible last week
- prefer to see a better effort before hopping back on his team
RACE 6 - (1) USEYOURLOVETONIGHT was handled conservatively in his first start of 2023 then
finished up with alert trot (first time Lasix) - he definitely has some ability, Bartlett knows him better now
and it should be all systems go for tonight. (2) SOME KINDA NIGHT was an even 3rd in his seasonal
debut then a little better 3rd last week - could be the main danger. (4) BYINVITEONLY didn't race at 2 or
3 then only raced 5 times last year as a 4YO - he did win his first lifetime (at Freehold), but never really
developed much after that (trotting a few "ok" miles before being turned out in October) - it really wouldn't
be a shock if he showed up ready to beat these, but he'd need to be a decent price to consider on top. (7)
VALLEE DOREE was handled fairly aggressively at Fhd. last week (1st start back at 3) and really wasn't
bad - at 20-1 ML, she's a decent bomb to consider using in exotics. (6) SQUABLE stays trotting and grabs
a check every week - he's also just 1 for 57, and hard to ever consider for more than minor spoils. (5) MY
BELFAST ANGEL stopped badly in both starts since returning for her 2023 campaign - waiting for better
signs before considering. (3) BARCELONA PRINCESS was well back in both Canadian starts after going
off at huge odds - we'll just observe for now
RACE 7 - 1 1/16th miles - tough race! (9) LOOKATMYART isn't close right now to the mare that won
over $100K last year but she still fits well with these - assuming PINK DELIGHT gets off to a decent start
in front of her, she may be able to work out a halfway decent trip from this spot - one of several possible
winners in a tough race to decipher! (2) TRIZZLE TRAZZLE is almost a threat by default - she chased the
sharp winner around the track for 2nd in one of these big fields last week, cut the mile (for 4th) the start
before that and was an ok 3rd right before that one - she'll be right near the front, and that'll at least give her
a chance, if feeling good tonight. (6) ASHTINI seemed to be coming into a big mile, was sent off at 3/5 two
back and just came up horrible - actually wasn't bad from an impossible spot last week, and may not be a
bad value horse to consider for tonight. (3) PULL ME THROUGH drops, moves inside, and has shown that
with the right trip, she CAN go with these - another worth considering. (1) PINK DELIGHT may just be
too cheap but she likely needed her last start in NJ, and now draws the pole with Bartlett in a bulky field -
really wouldn't be a shock. (5) THUNDRA had pace in traffic last week after just missing (to a big bomb!)
the week before - she does tend to disappoint far more often than she delivers, though. (10) BALFAST N
has way more bad tries than good lately, and is a "lazy" horse starting from a horrible post - will need a lot
to go her way for a chance tonight. (4) MILADY DENVER A is just 1 for 21 here the past 2 years and her
barn is off to a 28-0-1-1 start here this year - looking elsewhere. (7) BROOKDALE JESSIE is ok at times
but also has just 1 second (no wins) from her 15 local starts...and another bad post! (8) E R HILARY has
been struggling for a long time - Post 8 just adds insult to injury
RACE 8 - (2) BETTOR ROLL ON A was unable to sustain his bid when first over as the favorite last week
and flattened to 3rd - may land on an easier trip tonight, and his price will definitely be better - one of
several with a realistic chance in here. (4) AIR FORCE HANOVER qualified nicely for a new barn on 4/12
then just missed last week in his first try for his new connections - definitely a live player with these. (5)
GINGRAS BEACH is hard to really gauge right now as he's drawn poorly in 6 of his last 7 starts - not a
bad week to give him a look, assuming the price is fair. (6) POSH ONTHE BEACH A has looked much
better since the recent barn change, but gets stuck outside tonight - would still consider on a a few tickets
thanks to that 20-1 ML price. (1) WESTERN BEACHBOY draws the pole with Bongiorno and that may
mean a speed show is coming...not sure he's up for that kind of try right now, however. (7) ON THE VIRG
had a wake up call 2 back but was killed by horrendous cover last week - might have listed him a bit higher
had he not drawn so poorly here. (3) PAST DUE just hasn't had any local success for our leading barn
RACE 9 - Tough race: (3) VESPA N hadn't been doing all that great here at Yonkers but found a field he
could beat last week and was able to go wire to wire - steps up a notch but catches a pretty modest group
here....maybe he built up enough confidence to handle these too? (2) ODDS ON PICK SIX did leave last
week but broke on the first turn - he's been unpredictable at best lately, but any of his better efforts makes
him a legit player. (5) ROSE RUN X CON is well off the top form he exhibited last year and early this year
but he's still racing well enough to be a player with these - a live trip gives him a chance . (1) FLIP THE
SCRIPT is a mare facing boys but she does fit these, and the rail definitely doesn't hurt - throw her in, if
spreading a bit. (4) CAVIART REAGAN is off to a slow start at Yonkers this year, his record standing at
6-0-0-0...using underneath only. (7) RANDOM HANOVER is another that's had a rough start to the year
locally, managing only a pair of 3rds from 8 starts - Post 7 won't make things any easier. (6) ALWAYS B
MIMI raced well last week, but vs. a cheaper field of mares - wait for her to get back in a similar spot
RACE 10 - (4) STORMY KROMER was off to a rocky start in '23 before looking much more like his
usual self in last week's dropdown blowout - actually DROPS off that win, and he'll be the prohibitive
choice to take another...and it would be hard to go against him! (1) DREAMONHIGH was an excellent 2nd
in the FM Open in her first local try but tired in her next pair then took 3 months off - has looked very good
out of town since returning, and may very well sit behind the top choice...and complete a very short exacta.
(7) SWEET SOUL DAVID left the gate at 30-1 the last time Bartlett drove and was able to finish 3rd- deja
vu? (5) FIREINSIDEMYVEINS shipped in and raced very well in the first leg of the Brennan Series but
wasn't as sharp the next 2 weeks - lands in a tough spot for tonight, but is worth using for 3rd/4th at a good
price. (2) HAT TRICK MARLEAU's starts have been all over the map this year - he'll likely be ignored
here after last week's horrendous showing but that doesn't mean he can't bounce back with one of his better
efforts - ok for a minor piece. (6) GEMOLOGIST was able to get away 3rd and hold the show spot in 2 of
the last 3 weeks - not sure he can be as fortunate tonight, though. (3) STICK WITH ME KID has missed a
month after being scratched due to a post race positive from the barn - figures to be short tonight. (8)
PERRON will have a hard time getting a sniff from all the way out here
RACE 11 - (1) GREY disappointed off the class drop last week after holding her own in the Open for
several starts - she's capable of better, and we may see it from her tonight (she can be a little funny to drive
at times, but Brennan will figure her out) - one of a few possibilities in the finale. (2) PROMISE FOR LIFE
finally picked up his first YR victory last week and charged home powerfully to do so - Zeron sticks, and
he has a chance to repeat, even moving up in class. (5) HAYEK always "figures", but is now 0 for 14 at YR
over the past 2 seasons - he was pretty good last week, and maybe this is his spot to finally get back to the
winner's circle? (7) SMALLTOWNTHROWDOWN came up a little flat in the lane last week after being
trapped with trot the prior 2 weeks - he does fit here, but will need to find a way into the hunt from Post 7.
(6) SEVENSHADESOFGREY did a nice job holding 2nd to the runaway winner last week and his overall
recent form is strong as well - may have trouble starting from Post 6, though. (3) NO DRAMA PLEASE is
good right now, but really does his best with a bit cheaper. (4) KASHA V has mostly good efforts lately but
is another that may find a few of these a bit tougher than he'd prefer. (8) WINDSONG PIONEER has some
good recent efforts but faces an uphill battle starting from Post 8/