Monday Empire Report

soaofny • November 7, 2022

The Empire Report - Monday, November 7, 2022 - Race Analysis

RACE 1 - (1) L DEES JACK LOPEZ is in career form right now, has the speed to take advantage of the

pole and Brennan should have a lot of confidence in him right now - he does get to stay in the same class as

last week's victory, but this IS a better field...gets the narrow call in tonight's opener. (6) SETH HANOVER

has been in career form for a while now, and his barn has been en-fuego lately - major threat despite the

tough draw. (8) ILL DRINK TO THAT is dangerous at this level even from out here - if Stratton can find a

good early spot AND work out a nice journey from there, he'll have a chance to be a big player...at what

should be a decent price. (5) ESCAPEFROMTHEBEACH was able to hang on to beat cheaper 2 back but

he's also beaten better in the past - has a chance here for sure, but won't offer any value at that 5/2 ML price

(3) WALKINSHAW N hasn't won in some time, and would need a hotly contested pace for any chance for

that to happen here....he does have a solid chance to rally for a smaller piece, though. (7) MACHEASY A

was a winner 2 back and his last was sharper than it looks - it'll be hard for him to land more than a minor

piece from out here, however. (2) SOHO CHELSEAA has a pair of recent wins but vs. much easier - not

sure he can hang with these tougher ones. (4) BETTORBUCKLEUP has been away since 8/1 and will

remain on the "watch list" for now.


RACE 2 - Tough race! (6) MACH DORO A wasn't racing badly in the 5-s (he even had a couple of wins in

Aug./Sept. so it was no surprise to see him race well dropping to 40s last week (just missing, while 3rd) -

he can handle any trip, and that versatility may serve him well in a race that's tough to predict. (4) LONG

WEEKEND A can run pretty hot and cold, but his better efforts would make him a legitimate player here -

assuming he's a square price, he's worth considering tonight. (1) MOONLIGHT SHADOW hasn't been

close in 3 starts since the claim but he drops back down tonight for the first time, draws best, and did beat

this class the night he was taken - could be up for a wake up call here. (7) TOWNLINE ALL GOOD had a

bunch of good local starts since arriving this summer and finally picked up that first local "W" last week -

seems too far out here, but a very live flow would at least give him a chance at the end - worth including if

the price is juicy. (3) BRACKLEY BEACH has been very consistent for a while, and comes into tonight

with 3 wins and a 2nd from his last 4 starts - he'll try his luck vs. the 40s for another new barn here, and you

should insist on a fair price if trying him against these better ones. (5) LIKE CLOCKWORK can hold his

own at this level but seems more likely to grab a smaller piece here, than a larger one. (2) PROVOCATIVE

PRINCEN is always a threat on his best game, but just feels like he may be in a bit of downturn right now.


RACE 3 - (2) LOUS SWEETREVENGE is hitting on all cylinders right now and comes into this off a pair

of (heavily backed) blowouts vs. a bit easier - seems more than sharp enough for a good chance to make it 3

in a row. (4) THE WILD CARD gets a drop out of the Open where he's certainly been holding his own -

very dangerous if the top one fails to bring that same vicious form of his last 2 starts. (3) BENHOPE RULZ

N continues to race well every week even as he's climbed the class ladder - he's always a good price, and is

one worth including in your exotics. (5) BILL HALEY N picked up a (no threat) 2nd behind the top choice

in his last....the 2nd start off a layoff - a live trip could land him a good piece tonight, as well. Both (7) SH

ADOW CAT and (8) PYRO raced very well last time, actually hurting each other's chances before finishing

3rd and 4th - they both fit nicely, but also figure to be extremely compromised by their outside draws. (6)

ODDS ON CAPITALISM sports an amazing 26-10-13-1 career slate (mostly Ohio) and is clearly a very

talented individual - he's also a 3YO taking on some very nice older foes in his local debut, and will have to

do it from a difficult post - would be stunned if he was a player tonight, but we'll still stay with the more

proven local commodities. (1) JUSTA LITTLE BIT A arrives from Australia and lands in a strong field for

his stateside debut....while also qualifying about 3-4 seconds slower that the race will go tonight - we'll just

keep an eye on him, for now.


RACE 4 - (1) LEVINE has been very good in his 3 starts since the freshening, and that includes a pair of 8

holes - moves all the way inside now, and should be a very strong player from this spot. (4) JAHAN HAN

OVER has drawn Posts 7 or 8 in 3 of 4 starts since shipping in from PA, but has held his good form despite

those brutal spots - he gets reunited with Bartlett for tonight, and the pair came up 2nd best 3 starts back -

very legitimate threat tonight. (3) CAPTAIN SLEAZE returns from PA off a nice victory, and should have

some confidence after that mile - he does fit nicely here, and has a shot to be part of this ticket. (6) ALTA

BLUES A took a while to get in a good groove after arriving from Down Under this spring, but he's finally

starting to find his better form - comes into tonight off a pair of victories, but the class jump and poor post

MAY slow him down a bit...we shall see. (5) BELTANE A was horrendous 2 back but at least functional in

his last - legitimate threat here in his best, but just doesn't seem to be there right now. (2) DARK ENERGY

N may need to be in a little cheaper to be a serious threat - at least the post relief may keep him close

enough for a minor share. (7) DESIRES CAPTAIN has a mixed bag of recent efforts but may be too far

outside to threaten even if he shows up in a racing mood. (8) HEISMAN PLAYER was definitely taken out

by a breaker last week but his overall recent form has been lacking, regardless.


RACE 5 - Another good race: (5) CAVIART SARGENT has been on an extended form spree and showed

last week that he's more than good enough to thrive at this $50K level - Stratton quickly figured out that

he's at his best racing from off the pace, and he may just end up with a very nice trip here - one of several

very sharp entrants with a chance at the top prize. (3) MIKEY CAMDEN has been holding his own vs. the

75s and now gets to take on the 50s - his barn is red hot, and he looms a big threat tonight. (4) WICHITA

LINEMAN had a couple of lesser outings but he certainly feels like he's back on his game right now - he

seems fine with any trip that comes his way, and he's another that can be a big threat here if he ends up in

the right spot. (7) SAILBOAT HANOVER came up a little short last week (close 3rd) after rattling off 4

wins and a 2nd after being claimed by these crafty connections - terrible draw tonight, but that also means

he'll be a much better price - consider. (1) PURPLE POET shipped in sharp from PcD, was hammered at

the windows for his new trainer and delivered a dominant front end score - he can surely take another.... but

he also figures to be overbet up in class, and facing much tougher. (6) KERFORD ROAD A has been "ok"

since the recent claim, but will need to find more if he hopes to duke it out with all these very sharp rivals.

(2) MR KELLY ships in sharp from Fhd. but he's missed 3 weeks and really lands in a tough field. (8)

TELL THEM LOU continues to draw horribly - wait for a better spot.


RACE 6 - (5) UNCLE JORD A has been pretty good in most of his recent stars, several vs. better than

these - he's listed at 8-1 ML, and just feels like a better contender than that...worth a stab? (3) ROCK CAN

DY was off 2 months to his last and came up a little light at the end - he's eligible to be sharper tonight, gets

Bartlett to stay on board, and could be a major player. (2) PASS A GRILLEBEACH was a game first over

3rd two back then followed that up with a game front end score in his last - steps up a bit, but can still have

a say with these. (8) MICKY GEE N recently returned from a long layoff and he hit board in his last 3

starts - may just have too far to come tonight, but he has to be worth at least a look at that 20-1 ML price.

(1) HICKFROMFRENCHLICK will surely be very aggressive from this spot but it's hard to say if he's

sharp enough right now to make it last - just feels a bit vulnerable at a short price. (4) SOHO LENNON A

had his chance to run down #2 last week but couldn't go by at the end - classy 12YO may come up sharper

tonight, but he still seems destined for only a smaller piece against these. (6) MARLBANK ROAD was a

winner in back to back starts vs. cheaper, but he came up short in NW10000 last week and faces even better

here. (7) HES ELECTRIC feels like he's leveled off a bit...and Post 7 isn't going to help the situation.


RACE 7 - (3) DON DOMINGO N has been razor sharp at this level for what feels like an eternity at this

point, and tonight's barn change isn't all that concerning (as he won for this crew on 9/19) - somehow he

always seems to go off at a good price, and he's worth using once again. (2) BARBADOS was in career

form before taking some time off after 9/5 - he was a little short in his return last week, but he's eligible to

be that much tighter now...good week to consider him for your tickets. (4) OUR CORELLI N didn't fire on

the off track 2 back but has 2 wins and 2 seconds in his 4 other most recent starts - he's another that usually

goes off at a decent price, and is a good one to include in exotics. (1) WHITECOOKIE shipped in from PA

and wired these 3 back but failed to last on the front end in his next, then was invisible from the back of the

pack in his last - can never be counted out, but insist on a decent price if using on top tonight. (6) BRAEVI

EW BONDI N has been sharp ever since returning from Canada, and that's for 2 different barns - the issue

tonight is the draw, as he may have some trouble working out a live trip from this spot. (7) B LIKE CRUIS

ER was loaded with pace 3 back but completely blocked, was a solid 2nd in his next then just too far out to

threaten in his last - he's good right now, but may be done in by the draw. (8) SMOKIN BY N has 3 wins

and two 2nds from his last 6 starts and was a good 4th in the other - obviously he's more than sharp enough

to beat these and would have been one of the top choices were it not for Post 8 - still can't blame anybody

for using him if the price is good enough. (5) MAXIMUS RED A wasn't into the first over trip last week

but was a solid 3rd the start before that - he's being listed on the bottom, but only because there are just so

many really sharp horses in here.


RACE 8 - (5) NONE BETTOR A was moved to this barn (along with stablemate GREY) at the beginning

of September and BOTH horses have elevated their games dramatically - this guy won his first 2 starts right

off the bat, finished 2nd to LEONIDAS A in his next (after beating him the week before) then took the

$250K Aria Invitational Pace on International Trot Day, going over the $1M mark in earnings while also

establishing a new WORLD RECORD - he's been away for 3 weeks since then, but still gets top billing -

especially after not being assigned Post 7! (6) COVERED BRIDGE was purchased recently after winning 4

in a row and has continued to really thrive for his current connections, even winning races here at YR

(where he used to be a little camera shy)- tough draw, but still a very live player. (2) NANDOLO N may

not be on his very best game right now but he's still tough as nails, and should be able to rally late for a

piece of this. (1) OAKWOODNITOWINIT IR has elevated his game recently, but takes a big step up for

tonight - we'll see how he handles it. (4) SEMI TOUGH was able to tough it out to beat lesser last week -

hard to say if he's up for these tougher ones right now. (7) IGNATIUS A has upped his game since adding

Lasix recently and was 4th in last start (the Aria) behind the top choice - tough situation tonight, though, as

he's off a sick scratch and gets stuck with Post 7. (3) ALWAYS AND AGAIN is having a fine year but does

seem a little over his head against a few of these.


RACE 9 - (2) GINGER TREE PETE only drew inside twice in his last 5 starts and he was able to win both

of them - we'll give him a shot to do it again tonight. (5) CHANGE STRIDE N has been knocking on the

door in his last 4 starts but came up a little short each time - he was claimed from his last, and we'll see if

the Super Siblings can get him over the top tonight. (1) MISTER SPOT A was moving well up in class off

the claim last week - his 3 race win streak came to an end but he still raced very well for 2nd to a sharp

MARCO BEACH - chance for another good piece from the pole tonight. (7) JACKAMINO has really

come around since the barn change in September and his last was even better than it may look on paper -

another outside draw may hurt his chances for the top slot, but a good piece is still within reach. (6) TIN

ROOF RAIDER A has been struggling to wind the winner's circle this year but he does pick up a lot of

good pieces - include him underneath in exotics. (4) BETTOR BE OSCAR A has been away for 4 weeks

and debuts tonight for a new barn (we may be seeing a lot of horses that were previously trained by our top

conditioner, starting to re-appear with new trainers listed) - hard to predict how he'll do tonight, but that 2-1

ML price makes it hard to endorse him for a wager. (3) LATE MAIL N gets his first good post in a while

but it's hard to say how much better he'll do as a result - prefer others, but can see him landing a minor

share. (8) ONE OFF DELIGHT A trailed all the way from a similar spot two starts back.

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