The Empire Report - Thursday, August 10, 2023 - Race Analysis
RACE 1 - (7) HERCULISA is a classy mare but has struggled to really get her 2023 season in gear -
another terrible draw certainly won't help, but she did finish up decently last time and Siegelman may be
willing to handle her more aggressively tonight - decent value option in a pretty tough opener. (4) SOUTH
WIND ARTURO did the work first over last week only to get gobbled up by the fresher closers - he's been
solid all year, is sharp right now, and can be a threat with the right trip. (1) B NICKING always grabs his
share of wins and starts from the pole tonight - he can also be a little unreliable, and that 3/2 ML price does
make him seem a little risky to endorse on top! (3) SWAN FLYER gave way and caved last week but it was
a deep, difficult surface that night and it MIGHT have played a role - the price will go way up here if you're
willing to give him another chance. (5) NEWSBOY got Bartlett back on board last week and almost pulled
off the 9-1 upset - another live trip gives him a solid chance to land on the ticket somewhere. (2) IN A
TINY WAY put in a nice first over blitz to overhaul the favorite last week - this is a pretty steep class jump,
however. (6) SWISS HOUSE ONFIRE drops, but that may be offset by the poor draw - tough spot
RACE 2 - NYSS - (4) CECIL HANOVER was a hard used 3rd in last year's NYSS Final - he started off
his 3YO campaign with wins at VD and Tioga, then finished just behind some nice ones in his last 3 starts -
meets a couple of other good ones in this short field, but still deserves top billing. (5) WILD BILL KELSO
has been a much better horses since recently adding Lasix- he just missed here on 7/6 to the massively form
-reversing BAR COINS, won a NYSS at Buffalo then was right there (behind #4) at Monti - we'll see if
Zeron can find him a winning trip from this spot. (1) ONION GUM was 2nd here in a NYSS at 2, and won
a local NW4 race 3 starts down - he picked up a win and a 2nd in his last 2 NYSS events, and deserves a lot
of respect from the pole. (2) SOME KINDA CRAZY finished 3rd in his last 2 and seems to be sharpening -
still leaning to a few others, though. (3) SEVECHEETAH won 2 starts here this year but vs. much easier -
just re-qualified with hopples (after a couple of miscues) and just feels a little risky at the moment
RACE 3 - (3) INCOMMUNICADO is a legitimate FFA trotter when on his best game and that last effort at
Chester suggests that he's finally hitting on all cylinders right now - draws inside a couple of main foes, and
we'll give him top billing here. (4) YANKS DUGOUT was no match at all for the top one last start, but that
was a pretty vicious mile - he's hit board in all 9 starts this year, and that includes a local victory (over #5) -
may complete the exacta once more. (2) WHAT SHOULD I GOO couldn't run down STORMY KROMER
last week but there's certainly no shame in that - the talented 4YO has been very consistent for some time,
and has proven that she can hang with these - chance for a good trip, and another good piece. (5) STORMY
KROMER has taken 6 of 15 here this year after winning 10 of 23 last year - he can never be counted out,
but the draw does make him seem a little more vulnerable tonight. (1) HAYEK can be pretty inconsistent,
and comes off a dull 4th - even his best effort would likely come up short against these. (6) OH BOY broke
last week in his first start for new connections- he SHOULD have been assigned the rail here, but somehow
is forced to draw with the top ones in here...and of course draws Post 6 -- wait for a better spot
RACE 4 - NYSS - (1) CHAPERCRAZ has been super since the June purchase, and that includes 2nds right
here in the Yonkers Trot elimination and Final (behind the very talented UP YOUR DEO) - draws the pole
tonight, and they'll have him to catch and beat. (6) KIERKEGAARD K has no shortage of ability but he
comes into this showing breaks in 2 of his last 3 starts, including one right here (in the Yonkers Trot) - the
draw is another issue, but he's still worth considering IF the price is juicy enough. (3) CROWN went off at
1/5 in last year's NYSS Final but folded badly that night - he's gone some big miles since then, but has also
been hurt by inconsistency, especially lately - needs to show up on his best game if he's looking to pull off
the mild upset tonight. (2) THE GRUFFALO showed plenty of ability/promise at 2, but is another that is
having trouble getting into a good groove at 3 - he's another that COULD be dangerous if on his "A Game"
tonight. (5) YOU GOT IT is winless on the year and seems destined to continue picking up minor pieces
against these. (4) SPENDING CRAZY has 8 career stars that have produced 6 wins and 2 breaks - the wins
are ALL in "NW1", however, and he'll need to prove that he can trot with these (much) better foes.
RACE 5 - NAADA Amateur Summer Series Final - (2) REEL EM IN has been 1st or 2nd in 7 straight
starts including a 7 hole jogburger right here, last week - it would be hard NOT to give him top billing... but
it would also be hard to bet the rent money on him as the likely prohibitive, odds-on favorite. (5) FAIR GLI
DER traded victories with the top choice recently but his last couple suggest he may be off that top form
right now - may be worth considering IF the price is juicy enough. (6) LIONHEAD was winner here on 6/1
and picked up a 3rd on 6/29, despite a tough trip - he'll need some big time racing luck from Post 6, but he'd
have at least a shot at an upset if that happened. (7) JIVE NINETY FIVE has won 2 of nine starts here this
year, and just missed last week - at that 15-1 ML price, he probably deserves at least a look. (4) CALL ME
THEIFREMAN doesn't always have the best stamina and he will make a break at times....but he's also
managed to win 2 of 6 local starts this year, and is never a bad stab when the price is long enough. (3) JUS
T MAYBE THE ONE was dull off the barn change last week and is just 1 for 19 on the year. (1) TURBOC
HARGEDPETE has some good moments but he's prone to both slow starts and occasional miscues - would
need a big price to even consider, despite starting from the pole. (8) JUDGE KEN has only been managing
smaller pieces lately...but even that will be tough from Post 8
RACE 6 - (4) BEACON BEACH arrives for new connections after establishing a new 1:56.2 mark in his
last start in Ohio (he probably would have won his prior start as well, had his (very) young pilot not started
driving him with a clear lead in the stretch) - he's off a bad date, but we'll assume that his new crew will
have him ready to go...especially after qualifying nicely at PcD last week. (7) STRATEGIC made his YR
debut last week off a bad date, and showing some shaky lines - he turned in an excellent mile, however, and
it appears that his new connections have him quickly on track - chance for a big piece here, despite Post 7.
(2) SHOPPING IN PARIS ships in showing 3 wins from 6 starts, all on half mile fair tracks- she hails from
strong connections, and can be part of the equation in her Hilltop debut. (1) POP POPS TOMMY was
wildly overbet 3 back but able to come up with a victory - continued to be overbet in his next pair as well,
but could only manage an empty 5th two back, then made a miscue last week - would consider underneath
only. (3) BANGIN IN THE HALL has no wins and just a pair of 2nds from his 36 career starts - hard to get
excited about his chances for tonight. (5) JACKS BOY beat Maryland Breds last week and the 2YO may
have some ability - very tough spot for his YR debut, however (facing older foes). (6) MY BELFAST ANG
EL has just one 3rd from 7 local starts and draws poorly.
RACE 7 - (4) CAL MILES N SHELL has been racing very well for the last few months, and came up 2nd
best to DEVILISH HILL in his only local start - he has a post edge over a couple of main rivals, and we'll
see if that's enough to get him to the winner's circle. (8) BAR COINS was floundering through a 13-1-0-0
season until moving to a young trainer (on 7/6) that has orchestrated some dramatic form improvements
with fresh stock - despite some previously lackluster form, he left hard from Post 7 to find the two hole,
popped out to 3/4s and went by the leader then held off the talented WILD BILL KELSO (NYSS, Race 2)
to score in a lifetime best 1:56 - he broke in a potentially winning spot the next week, but bounced back in
his last for a 10th-to-first victory (in NJ) with his trainer at the lines - hard to understand how he's listed at
20-1 ML! (6) DAHLQUIST HANOVER was badly overmatched in his last 2 stakes races but this bunch
should be much more to his liking - assuming he can get around the Hilltop Oval, he should be able to have
a big say here. (1) HEADOVERBOOTS AS broke on 7/20 but that mile is sandwiched between a pair of
good 2nds - he's a logical player here but he's 0 for 17 on the season (10 seconds!) and hard to consider on
top at that 9/5 ML price. (2) MUNK is hard to evaluate class-wise off his Tioga lines but he's clearly sharp,
and may be able to grab a good piece in his YR debut. (7) ROSE RUN YANKEE is very good right now
but lands a bad post in a strong NW4 field, and is more of a "grinder" than a speed horse - may land on a
tough trip. (5) AVACKAES was racing well but has missed a month and that figures to hurt. (3) LIVINGO
NTHERAIL would certainly be a surprise against this bunch
RACE 8 - (7) UNEVERGONNAGETHIS had a brief rough patch after the Brennan Series but has been
very good for a while now, and gets some big time class relief tonight - should be able to get it done, even
from Post 7. (6) CREATIVE VENTURE has come back better than expected after a long layoff - he hasn't
won yet, but he's raced well in all 5 starts, and may be able to add some value to the exotics. (5) CREATE
MYSTIQUE is a bit of a puzzle - she won in her first try for the Dynamic Duo, but was getting really tired
late - took off the gate in her next, but was trotting ok late - not quite sure what to expect tonight. (4) MUS
CLE DAN tends to struggle a bit on the final turn before kicking home well in the lane - may be able to
rally for a piece of this. (1) TAP ME BLUE CHIP hasn't won in some time but she's a reliable piece-getter,
and the good draw may help her grab another. (2) MONEY MATTERS has some ok form out of town -
moves to a new barn, and the time off is a concern. (3) WANIA is ok at times, but not often enough - he's
one of the few under-achievers for this very high % barn. (8) CREDARENA will have trouble reaching
RACE 9 - (4) CANTKEEPMIASECRET had been racing well for weeks so it was no surprise to see her
win easily last start when allowed to comfortably control the action - her ability to race on or off the pace is
an asset, and we'll give her a shot to make it 2 in a row. (3) VALI HANOVER seemed to struggle a bit over
a deep, difficult surface last week but still kept trying hard in the lane to be a close 3rd - he goes for his 4th
barn in 4 weeks, but seems to thrive for everybody - major threat. (1) CRESCENT BEAUTY rebounded
from a clunker on 7/13 to squeak out a perfect trip victory last week - she loses Bongiorno tonight, and she
did make a break the one time he didn't drive recently (6/22) - playable, but only if the price is fair. (2) SW
ANSEA was racing pretty well in those 3 starts in PA and was ok here right before that - he seems better
suited with a little cheaper, but the good draw could give him a chance here. (7) SMALLTOWNTHROWD
OWN got leg weary on a tiring track last week and gave way in the latter stages- willing to forgive that, but
tonight's draw is a concern. (6) AFTER ALL PAUL hasn't been all that sharp and will be coming from well
back - minor piece only. (5) GAELIHILL was caught wide leaving last week and broke on the first turn -
has speed to his inside again tonight. (8) P L OSCAR needs a better spot to be a serious player
RACE 10 - Tough race: (3) ALL CHAMPY looked like he might be in a little tough last week but he
handled the class bump with no problem, scoring his 2nd victory in a row (and his 7th win of the season) -
we'll give the eternally sharp 9YO the narrow nod over a solid bunch. (2) PERRON saw his 3 race winning
streak ended last week but still raced super from Post 7 - steps up in class here for a new barn, but still
deserves plenty of respect in his current form. (1) NEW HEAVEN is a new horse since the recent barn
change and he steps in class tonight seeking his 4th in a row....not impossible by any means! (4) HL REVA
DON took some time off after tailing a bit - he came back sharp, winning at Chester then winning here...
but he made an unexpected miscue 2 back, then was a dullish 4th last week - could be tailing, but sharp
barn does drop him right back in to go -- mixed feelings. (5) JULA MUSCLE PACK kicked home strong to
get there for 2nd last week behind #3 - if they mix things up a bit, he can make some late noise once again.
(6) NO MAS DRAMA was ultra well meant last week but all the pleading from Bongiorno couldn't get her
to the finish line - faces a much tougher task tonight from Post 6. (7) WILLY WALTON gets a pass for last
week (behind a stopper) but the bad draw figures to really hurt his chances tonight
RACE 11 - (1) BRAYDEN VICTORIES started the year with a trio of 3rds at Chester before winning start
#4 - picked up small checks in a pair of NJ starts then scored at 2/5 at Pocono last week - gets the rail with
Bartlett for his YR debut and that stamps him as the one to beat...but he won't offer much value at that 6/5
ML price. (6) DECHAMBO reversed form at 39-1 at Stga. three back (2nd, just missed) - raced very well
for 3rd here on 7/20, then missed by a nose upstate last week - gets Yannick back, and is worth a good look
at that 12-1 ML price. (7) DARK MIND shipped in sharp from PA and was a BIG overlay winner (11-1)
last week - tough post, but still worth using if the price is fair. (2) P L QUICKSILVER is 6-2-4-0 to start his
3YO campaign and the Tioga shipper may very well fit with these - certainly playable in the exotics. (3)
WISTERIA HANOVER doesn't seem like a threat to BEAT these, but she's good enough to contend for a
piece if the trip goes her way. (4) SQUABLE threw a rare dud last start and has missed 3 weeks - prefer
others tonight. (5) IM AN ANDOVER has some ability but broke on 7/13 then was scr. sick from his next -
he has his trainer on board, and we'll be focusing on others
RACE 12 - (2) ABRUZZO was handled carefully last week (off a break) but had plenty of trot after
shaking free late - the ability has always been there, and Gingras will surely put him in play here - willing
to give him a try. (4) MAX landed in a live flow for his new barn and was able to get his picture taken last
week - remains a solid threat. (5) TOCCOA FALLS was returned to our leading trainer last week and might
have won if Zeron cut him loose a little sooner- another live player (3) MISSION VOYAGE qualified back
nicely (against his talented barnmate) after 2 months off - could land a small piece. (6) IN MY DREAMS is
feeling good again, but draws poorly while moving up in class - maybe 3rd/4th? (7) FOR A DREAMER
has won 3 straight but vs. easier - would have liked his chance a lot more with a better draw. (1) HAT TRI
CK MARLEAU is having a tough year (1 for 20) and seems a bit ambitiously placed for $50K. (8) JULA
MAGICIAN has done well since arriving from PA but faces a tall task from all the way out here.