The Empire Report - Thursday, September 16, 2021 - Race Analysis
RACE 1 - (1) FOX VALLEY CHARLIZ added Lasix last week and paced a BIG final half for 3rd (after
being well back off turn two) - looking at a much better trip tonight, and may be able to take advantage to
roll by late. (5) DONGAL RUNDLSCRK N was very well meant vs. a much better field last time but just
wasn't up to the task - faces easier now, and this MAY be a spot she's ready to handle - legit threat. (7)
SANDYS BEACH is the rare horse that the Dynamic Duo were unable to turn around and her owner moves
her to a new barn for tonight - she'll get her much preferred OFF the pace trip tonight, and should turn in a
much better performance here...chance for a piece. (3) FREE EXCHANGE hit board in 3 of her last 4 (for a
hot barn) and is certainly one to include underneath. (2) EYE POPPING tried to air it out on the front end
last week but hit a wall by the top of the lane - been a long time since she's been on her game. (6)
FOLLOWTHEWIND N throws some decent efforts in this class but mostly from inside posts - not sure she
can get in the hunt tonight. (8) WINDSONG PARISIAN used a good trip to produce a better effort last
week, but may have trouble replicating that from Post 8. (4) ROCK N ROLL ROSIE seems overmatched
RACE 2 - (8) FIRST GUNNER was purchased out of Iowa where he complied a 24-16-6-0 record -- he
totally crushed the locals in his first start, and was apparently re-sold after that victory - lands Post 8 tonight
(with 3 weeks off) but is still pretty tough to go against vs. this bunch. (2) SAN CRISTOBAL was forced to
re-qualify after a couple of breaks but raced very well for 2nd after that, and should be able to grab another
good piece tonight. (1) DEWEY HALL is hard to gauge off those Ohio lines but the same crew shipped in
Voyage To Paris last week and that one raced very well...maybe this guy will too? (7) BACARDI was 2nd
and 3rd here early in August then lost all chance in his next when a rival (driven by his trainer) just hooked
his wheel coming to the half - came back with a nice effort in PA and definitely is a good fit here - Post 7 is
a legitimate concern, though. (5) CHROME PACKAGE hit board in 5 of 8 local starts and is a logical one
to use for 3rd/4th if playing tris and Supers. (6) CHURCH SOUT is just 1 for 42 lifetime but stays trotting,
and can grab a minor piece with an easy enough trip. (4) JS MISS EMMA hasn't done much in 3 starts
since shipping east from Hoosier - needs to find more for her YR debut. (3) HEARTOFGOLD DEVIE
actually has a win here but in a "fall apart" race that went in 2:04.3 - just seems on the cheaper side
RACE 3 - (8) MORNING HAS BROKEN was a "first time Super Siblings" last week, was sent off at 2/5
but ran in sharply at the start and got away last as a result, losing all chance (but still paced a BIG final
3/8ths of a mile) - goes from one "JB" in the bike to another tonight but that shouldn't really matter... and
the price will be much better this time. (3) DIBABA N found herself way back to the half last week and
didn't find her best stride until her fate was already sealed - drops down to the level of her last win, draws
inside and a very live try is expected. (2) ASHTINI hasn't looked "sharp" in some time but she gets some
post relief tonight and may be ready for a bit more aggressive try - possible spot for a wake up call? (6)
VELOCITY MCSWEETS has some good recent efforts and some dull ones - if she's a decent price here,
it's worth including her underneath in exotics. (4) MACHIN MARLEY has had a rough couple of years (1
for 33) but did race decently in a couple of recent local starts - not a bad bomb to include underneath if
spreading a bit. (5) QUITE A DELIGHT N is an inconsistent sort and certainly wasn't sharp last week off
the lame scratch - always eligible to reverse form at any time, and ok to throw in underneath IF the price is
juicy (1) BETABCOOL N is just 1 for 28 here over the last 3 years (0 for 14 last 2) and just hard to endorse
even from the pole. (7) ALL ABOUT AMY just never grabbed the bit last week and now lands Post 7
RACE 4 - (5) DA BOOGIE MAN has been improving ever since the barn change in July and that last
Monti qualifier was a good idea to keep him sharp - should be a better price than his main rival in here, and
that makes him worth a play. (4) FAWN DE TOUCH rebounded from a pair of miscues with a pair of wins
(one here, one at Chester) - definitely the one to knock off, but a little risky to back as the 8/5 ML choice.
(7) BRILLIANT BOB wasn't right in his last (vs. NW6) but was good in previous pair, and drops back to
NW4 tonight - at 20-1 ML, definitely a good one to include in exotics. (1) CHERRY RED usually isn't a
threat to win, but he's become a consistent player vs. these types and always a threat to land somewhere on
the ticket. (2) SHENZI AS shows a mixed bag efforts out of town including some miscues - ships in for a
very successful trotting outfit, so we'll see how she fares in her local debut. (6) EXCHEQUER was a well
backed winner 2 back but went offstride in his last - draws outside, loses Stratton, and we'll stick with
others tonight. (8) YUCATAN PARTY MAN finally broke his maiden in start #24 - must have liked the
way it felt, because he came right back to win again last week (at Chester) - faces much tougher now, draws
Post 8, and may struggle to ever get close. (3) DESTINY BLUE CHIP reversed form with that wake up win
2 back, only to revert to bad habits in her last - not hopping on her team tonight
RACE 5 - (7) TEMPUS SEELSTER was sent off at 2/5 in her local debut and certainly didn't disappoint -
faces tougher now and draws outside, but still feels like the one they have to beat. (5) BRING ME
DIAMONDS is 0 for 23 this year but does have 8 seconds (and she's 7-0-4-0 lifetime at YR) - has some
good recent lines in PA, and should be a good fit here. (4) AMERICAN TOUR N is another that's winless
on the year (0 for 24) but her overall recent form is decent, and she has a shot at a good trip here is Miller
figures out that this is a good spot to leave the gate - could add some nice value to the exotics. (8) PRAY
THE ROSARY may have "only" been a pocket winner last time but she was full of pace throughout, and
just looked a lot smoother (off the freshening) than when we've seen her in the past - don't be too quick to
leave her off the ticket just because she has Post 8. (6) CORAL BELLA wasn't as sharp in her last couple
but she wasn't "bad" either - could perk up with the barn change, and definitely has the speed to leave
quickly here....use her in exotics. (3) ACEFOURTYFOUR ALEX was a game winner last week, though
helped by a quitting leader at the top of the lane - moves up a notch, and will likely be looking at a smaller
piece tonight. (2) COWGIRL LILLY is just 1 for 20 this year and her profile connections must be hoping a
change of scenery will do her good - mixed feelings about her chances. (1) DIAMONDTOOTHGERTIE
has been struggling for a long time - hard to make a case as to why this is the week she'll perk up
RACE 6 - (3) NEVERFORGETWHOUR returned sharp after a 6 month hiatus, just missing to a very
sharp Anne Bonney N - came back to win handily on the front end the next week, and tonight's class bump
really shouldn't slow her all that much - likes to win races, and has a good chance to do that again tonight.
(4) TAKE ABIT OF LIFE has been overachieving ever since shipping up from Florida so it was no surprise
to see her jog last week upon dropping to the bottom level - takes a double jump tonight, but she's been
holding her own vs. BETTER than these for weeks - main danger. (2) ANN HILL showed up with a good
front end try last week, just getting nipped on the money - should be able to have a say in here as well with
the inside draw. (1) ACEFORTYFOUR DOME could be the "x factor" in here - was in career form for
several starts but went the other way after being claimed 3 starts back - if she has a wake up call in her, this
would be a good spot to find it. (8) PAIGES GIRL has been very solid for weeks but lands Post 8 off a
month and figures to be handled pretty conservatively tonight - keep an eye for next time. (5) SALLY
FLETCHER A does her best work vs. a bit easier at this point in her career - goes for a new barn tonight,
and perhaps can grab a small share with the right trip. (6) GREENHILL HANOVER beat a NW5000 field
upon arrival from Ohio - just missed in NW7500 in her next, but was no threat in her last bumping up to
this level - we'll see if she can be a bigger player tonight., (7) TOPVILLE ANGELINA hasn't been able to
pace cleanly on the turns since the recent barn change - wait for better signs before hopping on board
RACE 7 - (7) RACINE BELL continues to enjoy a sensational 4YO campaign, putting together a 9-6-1-1
local slate as part of her 18-11-2-3 season - she's overcome these spots in the past (often easily) and clearly
deserves top billing....but she hasn't raced in 4 weeks, and this probably isn't the best time to bet the rent
money on her. (4) SIESTA BEACH is having a pretty good year of her own, now an established Open
performer after being claimed for $20K not all that long ago - she can be much more aggressive than last
time, and looms the main danger to the top one. (2) DBLDELITEBRIGADE N hit a rough patch last spring
but a short break seemed to help her get back on course - she's been picking up good pieces every week
lately, and can do so again tonight. (3) JIVE DANCING A is in career form right now, even if normally a
bit below this level - ok for a small share once more. (1) DRAGON ROLL is a tough call - she held her
own after climbing to this level late June, before slipping just a bit - easily handled lesser in her last pair,
and we'll see if she's ready to take on the big girls again. (6) BETTERB CHEVRON N has been up and
down the class ladder this year - she's very good right now, but likely coming from last tonight. (5)
SEASWIFT JOY N has a couple of recent wins over cheaper, from inside posts - classy import needs to
show that she can still step with them at this top level.
RACE 8 - (2) MAJOR BATTLE was very sharp here 3 back but took a tough beat on the wire - no prayer
in her next but went a BIG mile for 2nd in NJ last week, 2nd best to a very classy winner in a 1:48.4 mile -
deserves the nod tonight. (5) JOSSIE JAMES A would normally be an automatic selection dropping to this
level but she made a break 2 back, then weakened in her last (albeit with a tough trip) - the 3 weeks off may
actually be a GOOD thing, and it would be no surprise to see her beat these tonight. (4) ITS MESMERISE
N raced much better than expected 2 back but bottomed chasing last week - if the "better" version shows
up, a good piece could be in store. (1) PETTYCOAT BUSINESS finally grabbed her first local win since
the winter series 2 back, but it was at the bottom level - faces much tougher here, but she draws inside and
seems sharp enough to tow along for a small share. (8) FEELIN RED HOT made an unexpected break here
4 back and hasn't really thrived (out of town) since then - it would never be a shock to see her win at this
level, but her current form suggests there are better alternatives right now. (6) BALFAST N raced well in
her last pair for a new barn, but moves up and lands outside - maybe can rally late for a minor piece? (7)
LUCKY ARTIST A was a "meh" winner as the 1/10 favorite 2 back and an "ok" 2nd in last - moves up two
classes tonight, lands outside, and will need to be a lot sharper for a chance at a piece. (3) TELL ME A
JOKE has really been struggling, and would seem to need a lot more class relief at the moment
RACE 9 - (6) MAN DONTFORGET ME is having an outstanding 4YO season (26-5-8-4 $117K) and has
handled the jump to facing older mares beautifully - managed to keep up into the blistering 1:21.3 pace
here 2 back, and that start at PcD (4 days ago) may give her a fitness edge over a bunch of these - should
offer some decent value from Post 6. (1) NATASHA missed her entire 4YO season but is now 7-3-1-1 in
2021, and is another that has shown no difficulty taking on classy, older foes - the one to beat, from the pole
(but sure to be overbet). (5) BRONZE OVER N disappointed in her first try for the new barn but she's
capable of better - look for a sharper effort tonight, with a chance at a piece. (8) LOVELY DONNA was
2nd here to Siesta Beach on 6/24 and faced better in all of her local starts this summer - might have been
the top choice had she drawn better, but faces an uphill battle from Post 8, off a bad date. (2) BAD MS JOH
NSON shipped in with some sharp looking Ohio form but that was (mostly) against softer - took no $ and
was no factor at PcD last week, and we'll see if she's any better in her 2nd try for the new barn. (4)
SHECANDANCE N was having a nice little streak of sharp tries before regressing a bit in her last couple -
hard to say if she'll rebound tonight, or continue to slide the wrong way. (3) MALNIFICENT does much
better work with a bit easier and after tonight, should start getting the class drops she needs. (7)
WOODMERE HARRIET delivered back to back upset victories 3 and 4 starts back, rallied well for 4th on
8/26 (after jumping up to this level) but failed to menace in her last at Fhd. - tough haul tonight from Post 7
RACE 10 - (7) SNOBBYTOWN has won so many races here at YR that's it's strange to see her shipping in
without any recent wins out of town - this is hardly an "easy" spot by any means (especially from Post 7)
but the vote here is that the return to Yonkers will see her return to the winner's circle. (1) NORTH STAR
IDEAL has been sharp for as long time, especially when she draws inside - she's established that she can
hold her own with good older mares, and she should have a big say in the outcome tonight. (2) MONICA
GALLAGHER has been in and out since joining this high % barn but that's kind of the way she's been
much of her career - if she shows up on her best game tonight, she'll be around somewhere close at the
finish. (5) SPORTS FLIX has appreciated exiting the Open ranks and has a win and 3rd in her last pair - not
sure what trip she's looking at tonight, and she may end up fighting for a smaller piece, rather than a bigger
one. (4) DEMETER N got hot late in June and worked her way back up to the top levels - petered out a bit
in recent starts, so we'll see if the (local) class drop helps her to find a better effort. (3) GOLDEN QUEST
has just 1 win in 20 starts this year and just can't find a good groove - suppose she'll look to save ground,
and hope for a small piece. (6) POPPY DRAYTON N needs a better spot to be a serious player
RACE 11 - (1) BABY MAKER HANOVER got post relief 2 back and scored the nice 8-1 upset... then
proved it was no fluke with a sharp 3rd in her last - she's good right now, and hard to pass up at 8-1 ML
from the pole. (6) FOCUS POCUS rallied crisply for 3rd here on 7/15 - was sent off at 2/5 the next week
off that sharp mile but lost all chance with a break before the start - has been racing well out of town since
then, and deserves a good look here, even from Post 6. (4) DIFFIDENT beat NW4 fields in back to back
starts, then was 3rd when moved up to this level - may be good enough to win here, but may also end up
being overbet...prefer to use her underneath tonight. (2) CAVALIER GEORGE took the $$ last week then
GOT the $$, using an easy trip to score a very easy victory - have to believe he'll have a tougher time
against this crew, however. (7) COCKTAILS N DREAMS shipped in with solid Chester form and hit board
in both local tries - clearly a good fit, but lands Post 7 off 4 weeks and may have to settle for a smaller prize
this time. (5) SWISS HOUSE ONFIRE took 5 weeks off after seeing his form tail off here - hard to really
get a read off that Monti qualifier, and inclined to just pass and watch for now. (3) I HAVE A DREAM
seems to be regressing since switching barns recently - will wait for better signs before hopping back on
board. (8) TURBOCHARGEDPETE draws Post 8 after having to re-qualify off a pair of breaks - pretty
sure he'll be handled conservatively tonight
RACE 12 - (2) YS TALLIA returned sharp for her talented young conditioner and was holding her own at
the top levels here for several starts - has the benefit of a recent race and that may give her the edge tonight
over a few sharp rivals. (1) MILLWOOD BONNIE N is one of several scary-sharp mares in the barn right
now, and she gets to remain at the level she upset last week (thanks to the optional claiming tag) - only
concern is the time off, and if she'll be as sharp without racing in 4 weeks. (3) DANCE CLUB is having a
terrific year, and still racing well at these higher levels - any decent trip would put her close at the wire
tonight. (4) ANGELS PRIDE usually outruns a couple of cheaper fields then levels off when she moves up
in class - she's actually holding her form much better this time, and deserves to be included underneath in
exotics. (6) BYE BYE MICHELLE is good right now but generally does her best work one or two levels
down - drawing outside several main foes won't help her cause either. (5) LADYBELUCKYTONITE has
been good most of the year, but generally at much lower levels - she's solid right now, but may find these a
bit too tough. (8) ROLL WITH ANGEL is feeling good right now but lands Post 8 off 3 weeks and loses
the hot Joey B. tonight - tough spot. (7) MACZAFFAIR N is an in and out type that just isn't clicking right
now - keep an eye out for better signs, and consider when you see them