Monday Empire Report

soaofny • October 3, 2022

The Empire Report - Monday, October 3, 2022 - Race Analysis

RACE 1 - (2) SAILBOAT HANOVER has been outstanding since being claimed by connections that

certainly have opened some eyes with their return to the local scene - he goes for his 6th driver in the last 6

starts, but he's razor sharp and it doesn't seem to matter who gets the assignment these days - faces some

legitimate competition here, but is still the one to beat. (6) BLUEBIRD RECON was 1st/2nd in about a

zillion straight starts before landing in an impossible spot last week - tonight's draw isn't much better, but

he does drop back down to the 50s...hard to say how many might leave inside of him, but he's still worth a

look if the price is decent. (3) BENJIS BEST was off a month to his last start but appreciated the easy trip

and finished well for 2nd - he's 8-4-2-1 at Yonkers this year- and could be a major threat tonight with the

right journey. (4) EL JACKO N hails from a barn that has been winning at an unfathomable 40% rate for

months so he can never be discounted...but he's 0 for 4 since the claim, and may be just a hair below a

couple of the others in here right now. (5) TROJAN BANNER N was able to wire a $50K field in his first

local start then raced ok for pieces in his last pair - will need some things to go his way to pick up more

than a smaller share tonight. (1) KERFORD ROAD A returns from Tioga and seemed a bit ambitiously

placed in this class. (7) DARK ENERGY N was ok in his last couple, but faces a tough task from out here.


RACE 2 - (1) NANDOLO N was tightened up in NJ with his "co trainer" in the bike and was certainly

ready for his return to YR last week, scoring the sharp first over win with Bartlett now on board - the classy

import remains in the same class, draws the pole again, and remains the one to beat in this short but solid

field. (2) PACE N PRIDE N had to swing wide around sluggish cover on the final turn last week then

charged home full of pace to finish 2nd behind the top choice - may be the one with the best chance to

knock him off tonight. (4) BUDDY HILL had this class opened for him ("NW31401 L5") and is certainly

feeling pretty good right now - another logical one to use if trying to play against the very short priced

favorite. (5) FORTIFY hit board in 5 of 6 starts since joining this barn with the lone blemish when facing

BULLDOG HANOVER, etc, in the DAN PATCH - he fits for sure, but he's missed 3 weeks and lands

outside some sharp foes - a live trip would help him grab a good piece, though. (3) PRETTY HANDSOME

might be a notch below these right now, and his normally high % barn is just 2 for their last 31.


RACE 3 - (1) DIAMONDBEACH really hit a rough patch for a while but he looked good wiring the

bottom class 2 back, then a bit better wiring NW7500 last week - tonight's class jump is more significant,

but he should have some confidence right now and when he's "right", he's capable of beating better than

these - we'll give him the narrow nod. (3) KINGSVILLE had a very good summer but the 3YO was really

moving up in class last week (tackling tough older foes) and was definitely way overbet - he probably raced

better than the line looks (he paced a :26 third panel just trying to get into the race) and he could definitely

be a player tonight....but look for him to get overbet once more. (2) CAN BE PERFECT pounced on the

perfect two hole trip last week and basically gets a free ride tonight as the class was opened up to fit him in

- a similar trip would make him a threat to take another. (7) DELIGHTFUL TERROR was racing off a sick

scratch last week and looked quite short - he's right back in the box and eligible to be sharper this week -

decent value horse to include underneath, despite the tough draw. (6) SHANWAY N has been facing lesser

in most of his recent starts but his overall form isn't bad - another bomb with a chance at a minor piece. (4)

SARANAC BLUE CHIP had no chance from Post 8 last week but at least the possibility of finding a trip

does exist from Post 4....still prefer others, but a decent try isn't out of the question. (8) FAMILY RECIPE

came up empty 2 and 3 back from tough spots - gave it a big go in a well meant try last week, but

succumbed to pressure and tired to 4th in the lane - drops, but hard to back from Post 8 in his current form.

(5) TUGGIN ON MY HEART returns to YR where he broke in his last 2 local starts - will just observe, for

now.


RACE 4 - Good race: (3) BALLERAT BOOMERANG has taken 3 of his last 5, finishing 2nd to the

eternally sharp BLUEBIRD RECON in the other two - he deserves top billing off that current form, but

there are a few other sharp ones in here and this race could go a few different ways. (5) B LIKE CRUISER

saw his 5 race win streak snapped 2 back after drawing Post 8 - rebounded with a nice try last week (cutting

the mile and finishing 3rd, behind the top choice) and goes back tonight to a barn that won with him 3 starts

down - worth considering at a fair price. (7) SHERIFF N had no chance last week (sat last all the way) but

still flew home full of pace for 4th - he's another that's been sharp for ages, and MAY be able to do some

damage if things get a little heated up front. (1) MACH DORO A has a couple of recent wins and was 2nd

to a razor sharp SAILBOAT HANOVER last week - can never count him out from a spot like this. (2)

MANKAT is probably a bit sharper than his lines look - would need some things to go his way for a shot to

win here, but a decent piece is certainly within reach. (6) WICHITA LINEMAN dropped to 50s last week,

never pulled and was a dullish 3rd in the stretch - draws poorly for his new barn, and will need to be a lot

sharper to be a threat tonight (but not impossible). (4) MACINTOSH N hasn't been bad by any means, but

the 13YO lands in a tough bunch and may need to find an easier spot.


RACE 5 - (3) BETTOR BE OSCAR A went a strong mile after being claimed by our leading trainer,

coming up 2nd best to favored HICKFROMFRENCHLICK despite the first over trip - catches a pretty

modest $40K claiming field tonight, and looms the one to beat (just 1 for 20 here this year, though, so

maybe not the best one to bet the rent money on at a short price). (4) BLACK CHEVRON N beat the 30s

on 8/6 and has had several excuses facing the 40s here ever since - went a nice effort for 2nd at Chester last

week, and this is probably a field where he can make his presence felt. (7) BECKHAMS Z TAM was no

factor last week but that was vs. 50s, off a bad date - drops right back in the box and drops into a much

easier field, and may be able to be a threat despite the terrible draw. (1) WEONA SIZZLER A reunites with

Boyd and the pair did team up to spring a 120-1 shocker back on 8/5 - hasn't done much since then,

however, so a big wake up call would be needed. (6) SULLIVAN was our pick last week and he ALMOST

pulled off the 14-1 upset - he jumps up to 40s off that mile, draws outside, and may have a harder time

being the same kind of threat with these (2) WAR DAN DELIGHT N is 0 for 27 this year and impossible to

consider on top....he does have 7 seconds, though, so he can at least be considered for a lesser piece. (5)

GOTHIC ROCK used a highly opportunistic trip to beat the 25s last week - the double bump to 40s seems a

bit over-enthusiastic, however.


RACE 6 - (1) VENIER HANOVER couldn't beat a fat man to a buffet for a long time but after joining our

leading barn in August, he seemingly can't LOSE anymore, riding a 5 race winning streak into tonight (and

now beating some pretty good horses!) - there's a pretty good chance he can make it 6 straight from this

spot but IF you're looking for some reason to take a shot against him, he did bobble briefly on the 2nd turn

last week. (7) DON DOMINGO N comes into tonight with 4 wins in his last 5 starts, finishing a close 3rd

from Post 8 in the only loss- he was just reclaimed by the barn that got him this good, and the bad post

means he'll be a good price here - clearly a good helping of trip luck will be needed, though. (3) SMOKIN

BY N took a couple of starts to get back on track after a recent claim but he comes into tonight having won

his last pair, and is another viable choice if looking to go against the top choice. (2) NOWHERE CREEK A

has held form for a few different barns as he's recently climbed from 40s to 75s - may end up with a good

trip here, and that would put him in play for a spot in the exotics. (5) UNCLE JORD A may be on the

cheaper side, but he certainly has a few very good recent efforts, and could grab a chunk of this with the

right trip. (4) MIKEY CAMDEN handled the jump from 50s to 75s nicely last week, but was also helped

by a very nice trip - not sure he can land such an easy journey tonight. (6) OZONE BLUE CHIP was razor

sharp for several weeks but failed to get involved at all from Post 8 in his last - would have been more

likely to ignore that effort if the barn wasn't currently struggling a bit (just 2 for last 31).


RACE 7 - (5) VELOCITY KOMODO had to search for room into the stretch last week but was loaded

with pace once he found it - drops a peg to the level he beat on 8/8, and he's held his own with better than

these as well - a live trip gives him a solid chance in here. (1) WALKINSHAW N wasn't bad last week...he

was just incredibly overbet - always has a legitimate chance from a good spot like this. (2) OAKWOODIN

ITO WINIT IR is 0 for 11 here this year and burned quite a bit of $$ this summer - was able to pick up a

win at PcD last week vs. cheaper, and we'll see if that helps his confidence a bit - would still want a decent

price to consider him on top tonight, though (7) BARON MICHAEL is sneaky good right now, but lands

another terrible post - maybe some trip luck can help him grab a piece of this. (4) ESCAPETOTHEBEACH

was pretty disappointing on 8/30 and the fact that he was scratched sick from his next may explain why -

came back to re-qualify nicely last week, but he would be hard to endorse on top with that 2-1 ML price.

(3) GINGRAS BEACH can be pretty inconsistent but his barn has been sending out some good ones lately,

and he's not a bad one to consider for underneath. (6) CANTSTOPLYING finished ok for 4th off an easy

trip last week but figures to have a tough time getting play from Post 6. (8) GALANTE A has been dead

short off the long layoff and now draws Post 8.


RACE 8 - (1) LEONIDAS A qualified back nicely after a brief freshening and had a very useful tightener

last week, charging home full of pace to be a close 2nd after moving around stalled cover entering the

stretch - mega-classy import gets to call the shots tonight, and the road to the winner's circle goes through

him. (2) NONE BETTOR A had already been sharp so it was no surprise to see him win his last pair after

joining a barn that seems to improve horses no matter whom they get them from - he was able to beat the

top choice last time, but it'll be tougher to pull that off tonight. (3) IGNATIUS A has been good in his 3

starts since adding Lasix, including last week's close 2nd behind AMERICAN COURAGE - little tougher

spot tonight, and he also loses Bartlett (to #5) - still has a solid chance to land somewhere in the exotics. (4)

SEMI TOUGH was a lot sharper in his last pair, and seems more than capable of handling the jump back up

to the Open - another one to include underneath. (5) JOESSTAR OF MIAA has missed a month, but that

may only be because the $100K claimer hasn't been filling - he's shown that he can hold his own at this top

level too, but the bad date may really hurt him a bit tonight. (8) SPLASH BROTHER can throw some

pretty big miles at times, but this doesn't seem like one of those spots - a win drops off the bottom of his

card tonight, so look for him next week, in an easier spot. (6) SPEED MAN N finally gets in to go after

qualifying back on 9/9 - draws poorly for his return, and this is a good week to just observe...for future

consideration. (7) COVERED BRIDGE used a ground saving trip to pick up a 4th for his new connections

last week - may not be as fortunate from all the way out here.


RACE 9 - (5) RUNRUNJIMMYDUNN N was claimed by our leading barn back on 4/4 and went out to

establish a new lifetime mark the next week (in his 133rd career start) as he beat the 75s - stepped up the

Open the following start and beat them too, before finishing 2nd and 3rd in his next pair - went on the shelf

for almost 4 months after that but is now 2 for 2 since returning, and stays in the same $75K class tonight -

solid chance to be a short priced winner in the finale. (1) BELTANE A came into his last race very sharp,

but turned in a disappointing effort - he drops right back in the box, draws best, and definitely has license to

bounce right back with one of his better efforts - could be the main danger if that happens. (4) THE REGU

LATOR was sent off at 81-1 last week but kept on trying first over on the rim, eventually moving into 2nd

in the stretch to finish behind the streaking VENIER HANOVER - if he can replicate that effort here, he

can pick up another good piece. (2) CHIEFS BEACH has a mixed bag of recent efforts but if he can just sit

close and save ground, he can pick up a small slice of this. (3) PADUKA N is another that is prone to

inconsistency, and has just 1 win and 1 second from his 14 local starts this year - maybe 3rd/4th? (6) RAU

KAPUKA RULER N took off the gate for a couple of starts but he left again in his last pair, finishing 2nd

after cutting the mile both times - this is a bit tougher spot, and he'll probably have the top choice leaving

right inside of him - leaning towards others. (7) QUALITY BUD almost beat this class 3 starts back but

was dullish off an easy rail trip in his last - hard to feel good about his chances from Post 7 tonight. (8) AIR

FORCE HANOVER lands Post 8 after throwing in a somewhat disappointing try from the rail last week.

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