The Empire Report - Friday, September 30, 2022 - Race Analysis
RACE 1 - (4) CAROLINA MAGIC tailed off quickly after winning here off the qualifiers on 7/23 - his last
start was actually a bit better, and a couple of other struggling barnmates have started to come around
recently - not a bad one to consider in the opener at that 9-1 ML price. (3) CASHNCAM qualified back
decently after being scratched lame here on 9/10 - he has his ups and downs, but the "good" version would
have a chance to be a player here. (5) SOHO WALLSTREET A was claimed on 8/5 by our leading barn for
$25K - he never worked out at that level, but is now 2 for 2 since dropping down to the 15s - obviously a
major threat, but his last win was kind of "ugly", and he may be vulnerable tonight at a pretty short price.
(1) ACES ROCK picked up 3rds in his last pair, and should be looking at a good trip tonight - good one to
include in exotics. (2) HOOSIER SHARK lacked pop at the end last week but he was also racing off a
layoff - eligible to be sharper tonight, and worth using underneath if the price is decent. (8) HURRIKANE
KINGJAMES is 0 for 25 here over the past 3 seasons but he does get a meaningful class drop here - the
outside draw figures to limit his productivity, but would at least consider for 3rd if the price was long
enough. (7) BET THE LIMIT hit board in 6 of 9 local tries this year but his lone win came a while ago -
not sure he can reach from all the way out here. (6) COACH CAL can contend at this level from an inside
spot, but may just have way too far to come tonight
RACE 2 - (2) THE DOWNTOWN BUS came into his last start having not earned a check in his prior 2
starts, and with a 1 for 34 local record over the past 2 seasons - he was nevertheless sent off as the favorite
and to the surprise of few, turned in his best mile in ages....crushing the field with a hot 1:52 mile under
Bartlett death grips to the wire -- it looks like it took a couple of weeks for him to take to the program of
our leading barn, but he certainly performed to his peak potential last week...very tough with a similar
effort. (1) I GET THAT was an even 4th in a fiery 1:51.3 mile last week after a solid 2nd the week before -
should get a good trip from this spot, and that would make him a legitimate player. (6) MARINER SEELS
TER just had no prayer from Post 8 last week but has otherwise been on what feels like a 2 year form spree
(at ages 12 and 13!) - worth at least a look here at that 10-1 ML price. (3) ALOTBETTOR N got cooked in
a speed duel 3 back but scored off the pocket trip in his next, then just missed last week off another good
journey - chance to land on the ticket if the trip remains kind. (4) ASTON HILL DAVE was sharp beating
the 25s two back and just as impressive beating the 30s last week - tries to keep it rolling against the 40s
tonight, and we'll see if that form can hold up at this level too. (5) GHOST DANCE was razor sharp for
several starts, but struggled with a tougher trip last week - his barn has cooled a bit (in general), so perhaps
this isn't the best week to hop on his team. (7) CONBOYVILLE cut his last 3 miles and came up a little
short at the end each time (a 2nd and two 3rds) - draws poorly (up in class) after missing 3 weeks, and we'll
just keep an eye on him tonight. (8) TOWNLINE ALL GOOD wasn't bad last week from a tough spot, but
lands in a really brutal spot for tonight - wouldn't be shocked if he found a way to grab a minor share
RACE 3 - Wide open race: (6) RISKY MILLION has been in mostly tough spots in his recent starts, but
still racing reasonably well under the circumstances - this is hardly a "good" spot (and he's been away for 3
weeks), but this is a pretty questionable field and the price should be decent - worth a stab? (7) ODDS ON
DELRAY was claimed for $40K on 8/6 - he never worked out at that level but he did beat the 30s two back,
and raced well for 2nd last week - drops again to 25s tonight, but also figures to be a short price from a bad
post - could be vulnerable. (1) BOILER MAKER is unpredictable from start to start but he beat the 30s on
7/23 then missed by a nose 3 back - he's clearly capable on his best effort...but will we see that effort
tonight? (2) JACKAMINO changed barns last week but got away last and had no chance - gets major post
relief, and is eligible to come up with a good effort here. (5) BRACKLEY BEACH did well for the Super
Siblings for a while, but he's now just 1 for 21 this year, and he also sports a 1 for 37 local record over the
past 3 seasons - would consider using underneath. (4) IAMMRBRIGHTSIDE N left last week, found a
good spot and still finished way back - he hasn't beaten a single horse in 3 weeks, and would need a
complete form reversal to even be competitive here. (3) MISTER HAT may get a look when he drops back
down to 20s, but he's struggled at this $25K level. (8) STATEMENT MADE A just seems buried from this
spot as he arrives from out of town
RACE 4 - (1) BIG SIR beat a NW7500 field on 7/22 then raced ok vs. better for several starts - dropped
back to that level last week and gave it a big try on the front end, coming up 2nd best to the very sharp
winner - drops all the way to the bottom tonight, draws the pole in a pretty blank field, and looms a very
short priced winner. (3) GAMBLING TERROR perked up with some life 2 back even though he weakened
late after brushing to the lead - was a dullish 4th last week (behind the top choice), but still might be better
than the rest of these. (4) GLENGARRY KNIGHT N is usually pretty solid when he draws inside at this
bottom level - look for a sharper try tonight, with a chance for a piece. (5) AINT HE SPECIAL showed
some promise (in NW2) after arriving on the scene here in June but soon hit a rough patch - really wasn't
too bad last week from a tough spot, and may be able to add some value to the exotics. (2) MAROMA BEA
CH hasn't done much of anything lately but he draws inside and gets Bartlett - maybe that's enough to land
him a small piece? (6) ITSMYCHECK GB raced ok last week, leaving for a two hole trip then weakening a
bit to 3rd - it was a step in the right direction, and we'll see if he can build off that mile tonight. (7) BUNG
ALOW BILL N is 12-0-0-0 at YR over the last 2 years, and 26-0-3-0 over the past 3 - would at least wait
for an inside draw just to consider for a piece. (8) HENRICO flattened quickly after a wide move last week
and now gets stuck with Post 8 - prefer to just observe, for now
RACE 5 - Strong NW15000 field: (5) TAKE ALL COMERS earned about $365K at 2 and 3 and has
continued to thrive at 4, already banking $150K while taking on some of the best trotters around - the last 3
"non stakes" races he was in resulted blowout wins at Chester, and he's the one to knock off here....as long
as he has no trouble getting around the half. (6) EPOS OSTERVANG DK came to life here when Bartlett
started driving him here this summer and he's held that good form at Chester even with Foget at the lines -
our leading driver hops back on board for his YR return, and a big effort is expected. (2) KINDA LUCKY
LINDY threw a dud 2 back then had no chance from Post 8 last week - gets major post relief for tonight,
and may come up with one good enough to grab a decent piece. (7) DELAYED HANOVER is 2 for 2 here
at Yonkers and one of the few horses to beat FLIP THE SWITCH lately - he normally would have been
favored in this class, but he draws outside a couple of tough foes, and may have to settle for a little smaller
piece tonight. (1) SWEET SOUL DAVID has been steady in his last few tries, draws the pole, and may be
able to grab a minor share. (4) HOOLIE N HECTOR has been holding good form even as he's climbed in
classes, but may be in just a bit too tough this week. (3) LIFEINTHESLAMMER has been racing well in
PA for a high % barn, but catches an awfully tough field for her Hilltop debut - prefer others. (8) SOUTH
WIND FROST is 4-0-0-0 at Yonkers, and draws Post 8 in a strong field for his return - wait for a better
scenario to consider
RACE 6 - Tough race, with a lot of struggling horses! (6) SNAP CALL benefited from the inside trip last
week and almost pulled off the 29-1 upset - he was also a good 3rd four starts back (at 57-1) and he'll be a
big price again tonight - as good a stab as any in a very hard race to predict. (4) WINDSONG JACK was
caught out into the fastest part of the mile last week and wasn't able to get into the hunt - has the right pilot
tonight to try to get him a bit more motivated. (1) TREASURE MACH was sent off favored last week after
moving to our leading trainer but came up dead empty after finding a good early spot - he'll be a short price
again, and it would be hard to endorse him on top off that last effort. (3) WAVES OF FIRE A hasn't done
anything lately but he won at this level on 7/22 and gets his best post in ages - wake up call? (2) TEXAS
TERROR N was so good for so long but now just acts like he doesn't want to be out there - last week was a
little better...we'll see if he can build off that. (5) TERRITORY was struggling before the recent claim and
has been the same since then - in need of a major wake up call. (8) SKIP TO MY LOU just hasn't been
sharp in a long time, and is 0 for 21 at Yonkers over the last 3 years - hard to like from Post 8, but at least
the price will be big. (7) SETTLEMOIR had a massive wake up call off the barn change on 7/22....then
hasn't functioned since then.
RACE 7 - (2) PROVOCATIVEPRINCEN is taking a jump from 25s to 40s off the claim but he's also
sharper right now than he has been in a long time - meets nothing too scary tonight, and may be able to take
another, even at this higher level. (4) MOONLIGHT SHADOW was too far back to really threaten last
week (dropping to 40s) but did finish well - gets a better post, should still be a good price, and might be
worth a look tonight. (1) DESIRES CAPTAIN just missed at this level last week and was a winner 4 starts
back - his barn does seem to be cooling off a bit lately, but this guy still has to be respected from this spot.
(5) LYONS JOHNNYJNR picked up a win and a pair of 2nds right off the bat for his current connections
but folded badly last week after gaining the pocket from Post 8 - it seems like a good sign that he's right
back in the box, so many he can bounce right back to one of his better efforts. (6) TIN ROOF RAIDER A
had to deal with traffic issues last week or he might have finished even higher up - tough spot tonight, but
he's worth including on some tickets at that 20-1 ML price. (3) LIKE CLOCKWORK has raced well here
in the past, but it's hard to say how well he fits at this $40K level - suppose we'll get a clearer picture after
tonight. (7) AMERICAN BOY N dropped down to this level last week and ended up in a perfect spot,
pouncing late to pick up the victory - he faces a much tougher task from out here, but the classy 11YO can
still show up if some trip luck comes his way. (8) ROLL WITH JR has been right in the hunt in all of his
recent starts but that was helped by a long run of inside posts - may not have the same good fortune from
out here
RACE 8 - Short, but solid Open Trot: (4) HILLEXOTIC hadn't won here in a few starts but was able to get
back to the winner's circle last week, outmuscling AMIGO VOLO to the wire - he's now 17-8-6-1here at
The Hilltop, and his versatility makes him a threat every week - maybe he can make it two in a row? (5)
MISSISSIPPI STORM seemed to be getting his confidence (and his game) back recently but a bad trip left
him without a chance last week - he'll be a nice price here, and might be a good value horse to consider for
your tickets. (6) INCOMMUNICADO beat a bit easier here last week but did it in a manner that suggests
he fits just as well with these - the big concern here is the draw, but he's playable as long as the price is fair.
(2) NOWS THE MOMENT returns in tip top form from Plainridge, and he's raced well many times here in
the past - he can create a good trip for himself with his gate speed, but we'll see how well he can hold up
late against these solid foes. (3) QUEEN OF ALL has been razor sharp for weeks, but was hurt last week
when the top two finishers popped out in front of her to 3/4s, and she failed to fire her best shot after that -
eligible to rebound tonight, especially if the pace gets testy. (1) HEY LIVVY is being listed on the bottom
here, but the talented mare is eligible to race MUCH better than that if things go her way - should be an
excellent race.
RACE 9 - (4) HL REVADON was always a nice trotter so it's no surprise that he's taken 3 in a row since
the recent private purchase - he'll face a tougher crew this week, but we'll stick with the hot hand. (2) IN
MY DREAMS was claimed for $50K on 7/25 and he's already earned $60K in just his first 5 starts - the
"Optional $75K Claimers" condition allows him to keep racing in this class, and he remains a big threat to
grab another big chunk tonight. (7) SMALLTOWNTHROWDOWN has been extremely consistent for
some time, and has been finishing his miles much better in recent starts - has the speed to find a spot early
on, and could definitely find his way somewhere into the exotics. (3) HOMER HALL had been grabbing
smaller pieces in a bunch of starts then was 2nd best behind the top choice 2 back, and was a winner with
some class relief last week - will probably be back to a bit smaller share against these. (1) PLUMB may be
a notch below the main players in here but she draws best, is listed at 20-1 ML and is worth including for
3rd/4th. (6) CANT SAY NO ships in showing plenty of strong efforts in the Tioga Open but those horses
may be a bit below these - sticking with others, but curious to see how this guy does in his local debut. (5)
TIME STORM looked terrific beating easier 2 back but had no offer at all at this level last week - would
never write him off after just one disappointing mile, but for this week we'll just observe. (8) HAT TRICK
MARLEAU kept coming gamely last week to be a close 2nd (behind #3) after a first over trip - his barn is
going well now, but he'll have a tough time overcoming Post 8
RACE 10 - (1) DAVIDS COMING HOME put in his best effort last week since the recent claim, and has
done well for his current barn in the past - catches a pretty vulnerable field tonight, and may be able to find
a way to beat them. (2) MISTER SPOT A was 2nd to a stickout 2 back, then took care of business on the
front end last week in the bottom conditioned class - he's shown that he fits in 20s in the past, and is a
logical player again tonight - no value at that 9/5 ML price, though. (5) TWIN B SPEED DIAL steps up to
20s after a pair of 2nds and a win vs. some soft fields of 15s - might be able to be a player with this modest
group too. (6) OUR THIRD ROCK has picked up checks in all 5 local starts, but the best one was a 3rd -
ok bomb for the bottom of exotics. (3) SECRECY was a surprising claim for $25K two back but his
connections are already dropping him below the claim price after last week's poor effort - feels like a very
red flag. (8) GIVENUPDREAMING can probably do some damage vs. the 20s but maybe not from out
here - perhaps the tote board will offer some clues? Both (7) WON LAST FEELING and (4) TIDAL
SHARK would need major wake up calls to have any real impact here