Tuesday Empire Report

soaofny • December 19, 2022

The Empire Report - Tuesday, December 20, 2022 - Race Analysis

RACE 1 - (1) DRAGONS LUCKY LADY took a bit of a suspicious move into this claiming class 2 back

but was able to prevail despite Post 7 - didn't fire in her next vs. a much tougher NW30000 field but drops

back down to the 50s, and has to be seen as the one to beat after drawing the pole. (6) CHUPPAH ON had

been knocking on the door for weeks before delivering the front end score 2 back - had to work harder for

the lead last week, took on heavy pressure to 3/4s but still did well to end up a close 3rd...remains a very

legitimate threat. (2) BALFAST N hit board in her last couple and is eligible to land on a good trip from

this spot - can use her late rally for another good piece tonight. (5) VELOCITY MCSWEETS can likely use

her speed to land on a good trip here - she squandered one last week, but has too many good efforts to not

get a chance to rebound - use underneath. (3) LOOKATMYART is a little hard to gauge - she may just be

tailing after a long, hard year or she may just have been hurt by a few recent bad posts - gets a better draw

for tonight, and a chance to show a bit more. (4) BOTTOMOFTHENINTH ships in sharp from Monti, and

raced ok in a couple of starts here not too long ago - chance to rally late for a minor share, if things go her

way. (7) ACEFOURTYFOUR ALEX landed on the perfect pocket trip last week and was able to cash in - a

lot would have to go right for her to replicate that effort from out here. (8) BETTER WATCH IT did all the

heavy lifting last week before getting run down by the easier trip winner - she certainly fits, but may find

herself too far back to do any real damage tonight.


RACE 2 - (3) ODDS ON PICK SIX was a BIG "go" last week but ended up getting parked every step of

the way - somehow he still managed to be a close 4th - would normally look like a stickout against these,

but coming off that sick scratch does at least suggest proceeding with some caution. (4) BIG BOSS HILL

was racing pretty well (vs. better) out of town and picked up a 3rd upon arrival last week - should be a solid

player here, but his 1 for 29 record this year is a cause for concern. (1) GOTAFOOLISHDESIRE was an

improved 3rd last week and draws the pole tonight - chance for another small piece. (2) DIG DANNY DIG

draws well but was terrible in his only recent Yonkers attempt - we'll see if he's any better tonight. (6)

WEONA SIZZLER A picked up a win over cheaper 4 back in NJ but did little before or after that start -

may be able to beat some of the lesser ones. (8) AINT IT FUN has been showing little out of town, at big

prices - maybe Yannick can coax a little more out of him? (5) CODYS KNAPSACK was empty at huge

prices in his 2 starts since the recent barn change - needs to be a lot better. (7) BAMSKI was struggling

before the recent claim, and continues to struggle for his new connections.


RACE 3 - (1) TAKE A GAMBLE has been thriving since arriving from Canada on 11/11 and has held his

terrific form right up the class ladder - he was right there 3rd from Post 8 last week, and the move inside

gives him the edge for tonight. (7) ADAM CROCKER A actually beat the top choice here back when both

were racing in the bottom class - he won his next in NJ as well, but then had a couple of troubled starts -

added Lasix for his last, and came up with a nice effort for 3rd - worth considering for exotics at that 20-1

ML price. (2) DELIGHTFUL DUDE N was no factor in his first U.S. start but followed that up with a pair

of excellent 2nds, building off that with last week's well backed victory - moves up in class here, but seems

sharp enough to remain a player. (8) STOP STARING really elevated his game after the early Nov. barn

change, culminating with last week's sharp win at this level - will need some things to go his way to have

the same success from Post 8, however. (3) ULTIMAROCA has 8 wins and over $100K this year but just

seems to do better work out of town - will include underneath, but no value on top at that 5/2 ML price. (6)

BIG SIR will likely come from off the pace tonight after getting rimmed the mile last week - chance to rally

for a small share. (4) BENHOPE RULZ N seemed to be tailing a bit even before being scratched sick last

week- prefer others for tonight. (5) CRUNCH HANOVER probably needs a class drop to show his best.


RACE 4 - (6) MR DS ROCK was actually terrific when 3rd two back as his line doesn't really reflect just

how badly he was bothered early on - had to work a bit to win his last, but that was actually a pretty quick

mile for that night - steps up another notch but this is a modest group, and he may be able to take another.

(5) IMSTAYNALIVE threw a dud last week but it's probably a good sign that he's right back in the box -

he's a proven player at this level, and may be worth a look at what figures to be a decent price tonight. (3)

TOWNLINE ALL GOOD should appreciate dropping out of the 40s and may be able to use his late kick to

rally for a good piece of this. (2) THEFLYINGROCK was a sharp winner 3 back one level down, but his

form up in this class has been much more spotty - has a chance on his best, but offers no value at that 2-1

ML price. (4) HES ELECTRIC certainly deserves credit for his 51-1 "last to first" upset last week, but that

race really did fall apart completely - willing to use here underneath, but leaning to others for the top spot.

(1) OUR CORELLI N drops and draws the pole but he just seems way off form now - would need a major

reversal to be a serious threat tonight. (7) VESPA N is still trying to find his form since arriving in the U.S.

- waiting for better signs before hopping on his team. (8) PERSIMMON A has raced well here vs. softer,

but this seems like too tough a spot.


RACE 5 - (1) AMERICAN FRONTIER is 1 for 23 to start his career but has been picking up some decent

pieces (vs. better?) in PA lately - catches a very soft group upon arrival at YR, and figures to be controlling

the action from this spot - the one to beat. (5) THORN TOAD was used a bit in his local debut and tired -

didn't seem to like racing OFF the pace last week, but Siegelman will probably look to send him from this

spot - chance for a better effort tonight. (3) FUN MUNKY is a bit of a sluggo but does keep trying - moves

inside, and may be able to have a bigger impact this week. Both (6) TREVORS HUNT and (7) HURRIKA

NE MON AMI have been limited to only minor pieces - drawing outside will make it tough for either/both

to do much better tonight. (2) ALL STAR CHEDDAR hinted at some talent up in Canada but hasn't looked

good at all in 2 local starts - barn has been known to pop some major form reversals over the years...maybe

this guy will deliver one too? (8) HES SPECIAL is another that has been just "ok", and figures to suffer

from the terrible draw. (4) SIX TWO AND EVEN is a 2YO that still seems to be learning at this point.


RACE 6 - (1) PREMIER DREAMER can be excused for weakening a bit in a VERY good field 2 back,

but was very good when 2nd last week (to a very well meant recent import) - lands in a pretty well matched

field tonight but has the advantage of speed and the rail...and that may be help him get his picture taken. (2)

AMP IT UP N disappointed a bit 2 back but bounced back with a better effort last week, after adding Lasix

- logical player from this inside slot. (4) MIND HUNTER ships in from PA and gets a barn change that has

produced some pretty big improvement in the past - may be ready for a big try tonight. (7) HEART OF DI

XIE added Lasix 2 back and charged from last to 2nd in the lane - followed that up with a front end score

(at 3/5) in his next, but does move up in class while drawing poorly tonight....that may slow him down just

a bit. (5) BRUMBY raced "ok" in a pair of local starts, finishing 4th both times - it feels like he may have

more to give, and maybe we'll see that tonight (with the right trip). (8) BETTOR ROLL ON A has been

very consistent, but has also enjoyed a long string of inside posts - figures to have a much harder time

dealing with Post 8 this week. (3) ONE LUCKY DUDE shipped in off a win in Ohio, then beat a local

NW2 field as the odds on choice - he'll have to prove that he can hang with these better ones, though. (6)

CRACK A SMILE wasn't bad shipping in last week - ok bomb for 3rd/4th.


RACE 7 - Tough race: (4) SARA JANE raced ok in her local debut, working out a two hole trip then

finishing ok after finding room inside the tiring leader - she's eligible to be sharper in her 2nd start for a

very high % barn, and Gingras is familiar with her now - one of several with a legitimate chance in here.

(8) LINE EM UP usually races in/near the lead but had no trouble kicking home full of pace from well out

of it last week - Bongiorno may take a shot at sending her tonight (even from Post 8), and that would make

her an attractive value horse to consider. (1) WOODMERE SKYROLLER felt like she was just a good trip

away from an overdue victory...and that's exactly what happened last week - chance to trip out and take

another, but the price will surely come way down now, (6) LADY DELA RENTAA seemed to be heading

in the wrong direction but did rebound with a better effort last week - may be able to rally for a piece in

here, at a decent price. (5) NUTTINBUTTHEBEST was way overbet 2 back but able to come up with the

front end score - overbet again in her last, but this time she gave way in the stretch and failed to even last

for a check - not impossible, but definitely leaning towards others for the top slots. (3) PAIGES GIRL was

stuck racing from the back after a :59 half last week and never got involved - she does have a pair of recent

wins in this class, however, so she shouldn't be dismissed too quickly. (7) SHELLIE DE VIE has been very

solid lately, and is only listed this far down because of the draw - if you think Bartlett can find her a decent

trip, she's worth considering as long as the price is fair. (2) CAVIART CHERIE beat these 5 and 6 starts

down, but has struggled since then - in need of a big wakeup call.


RACE 8 - (5) KILOWATT KID N didn't fire at The Swamp in his first start back off the layoff but he was

heavily backed at Freehold for his next, and delivered a dominant victory - he catches a pretty shaky field

for his YR return, and may be able to make it 2 in a row. (1) ONE OFF DELIGHT A hasn't looked "good"

since dropping out of the 40s two starts back, but he's at least been "better" - the drop to the basement (and

the rail) should at least make him a player tonight. (2) DESIRES CAPTAIN is another that hits the bottom

class tonight while trying to get back on his game - moves in from Post 8, and should be able to play a

bigger role this time. (6) BETTORBUCKLEUP raced well in NW15000 off the layoff (11/7) but never built

off that, and now is yet another that finds himself at the bottom level - tough draw, but improvement is at

least possible. (4) HUDSEN A was in position to do some real damage at 37-1 last week but could only

manage a harmless 3rd - chance for another minor share tonight. (7) PADUKA N picked up a 2nd in NJ 3

back but his starts prior to and after that mile have been lacking, to say the least - he CAN be a big threat

here on his best effort, but it's hard to predict such a big turnaround here. (3) BRAZEN BRAZILIAN is 0

for 24 this year and 3 for 81 for his career - we'll stick with others. (8) MAJOR DESIRE picked up a 4th

thanks to the circumstances of the race last week....but he seems unlikely to get close to the action tonight.


RACE 9 - (6) ROLLING WITH SAM lacked room to pace in the stretch 2 back, then really wasn't bad

from an impossible spot last week - it feels like he may be rounding back into a top effort, and the price

tonight should be pretty decent - worth a stab? (3) UNCLE JORD A continues to race well on a weekly

basis, and gets significant post relief after racing from the 8 hole last week - moves up one notch, but seems

sharp enough to be a serious player here. (4) WALKINSHAW N charged home to beat a little cheaper 2

back, then finished with good pace from an impossible spot last week - could be a major late threat tonight,

but that 5/2 ML price takes away some of the appeal for a wager. (8) PEACE OUT POSSE is very good

right now and the class jump (off last week's easy win) really isn't a concern - drawing Post 8 IS a problem,

however, and much trip luck will be needed for a chance to overcome this brutal spot. (2) BAD TO THE

BONE N was an ok 3rd last week off an easy trip, and is worth including underneath in exotics tonight. (1)

GREAT SOMEWHERE gets a pass for last week as it looked like he hooked wheels to 3/4s (causing that

miscue) - he's just one of many seeking their first wins after leaving our former leading barn back in

October. (5) MAXIMUS RED A changed barns recently - was caught in a "strange" race 2 back, then failed

to fire in his last - drops a notch for tonight, but still leaning towards others. (7) BARON MICHAEL has

been good for some time, but faces an uphill battle trying to rally tonight from well out of it.


RACE 10 - (6) CAN B PERFECT was handled conservatively 2 back (after making a break the week

before) but finished full of pace in a NW20000 race - dropped to NW15000 last week but ended up in a

horrific spot and just lost all chance...double-drops to NW7500 tonight, and figures to be very tough, even

from Post 6. (1) GINGRAS BEACH hasn't been on his best game lately but he's looking at a good trip from

this spot - could have a better effort in store. (5) SOHO CHELSEAA may just be off his game right now,

but he's also had some excuses - he beat this class back on 10/11, and his best effort would make him a

player again tonight. (2) PINEBUSH LIFESAVER has a less than stellar 35-0-2-5 local slate, but his recent

form hasn't been bad - chance for a small piece. (8) DELIGHTFUL TERROR really hadn't been all that

great lately, but his last mile was much better - would have liked his chances a lot more tonight if not for

the terrible draw. (4) AINTNOBETTOR A is inconsistent, but has a chance at a small piece if things go his

way. (3) URBAN RENEWAL has been struggling for some time, but did show at least a hint of life in NJ

last week - we'll keep an eye out for some more better signs. (7) KEY ADVISOR seems a little cheap for

these right now, especially from Post 7.

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