Monday Empire Report

soaofny • December 19, 2022

The Empire Report - Monday, December 19, 2022 - Race Analysis

RACE 1 - (1) BRACKLEY BEACH has 7 wins and 2 seconds from his last 9 starts, hails from a red hot

barn and draws the pole with a talented young pilot - he may get beat tonight, but it's hard to make a case

for NOT giving him top billing! (4) BALLERAT BOOMERANG was a little short vs. the 50s returning

from some time off (in a new barn) then was stuck with Post 7 dropping to 40s last week - look for an

improved effort with tonight's improved post. (2) AMERICAN BOY N moves back to 40s after hitting

board 4 straight starts in conditioned races - the good draw puts him in play for another good piece tonight.

(5) TIN ROOF RAIDER A is just 1 for 21 on the year (0 for 14 at YR) but does race well most weeks and

picks up plenty of good pieces - chance for more of the same tonight. (3) BLACK CHEVRON N saved

ground to pick up 3rd last week - a similar (easy) trip may help him take home a small piece tonight too. (6)

MACHIAVELLI won 3 in a row at Chester then kept that streak alive here last week - it wasn't "pretty",

however, and tonight's class hike and poor post could leave him vulnerable. (8) DEETZY almost upset #6

last time but he's also moving up tonight and gets stuck behind the 8 ball - rough spot.


RACE 2 - (2) WICHITA LINEMAN moved up to 75s last week and just had no chance from Post 8 (but

really wasn't that bad) - drops back down to 50s, moves inside, and should be very tough here (1) HUGHIE

JUNIOR N isn't the handiest horse over the half so the move inside should really help him - good chance he

can outperform that 8-1 ML price. (3) PURPLE POET was stuck with 8 holes two of the last 3 starts (since

the claim) but was a close 4th the one time he did draw inside - a live trip could land him somewhere on the

ticket tonight. (4) REVELRY was claimed from our former leading trainer for $50K back in May - went

right on the shelf and failed to perform in 4 starts after returning in October - was just moved to a new barn

and did race better at Chester...suggesting he may be ready for a contending effort tonight. (5) REDBANK

BLAZE A dropped in for $50K after winning 2 in a row but was no factor (from Post 7) - we'll see if the

better draw helps him find a better effort tonight. (8) LONG WEEKEND A has been sharp overall lately

but tries to jump up to 50s for his new barn and also gets stuck all the way outside - may need a softer spot.

(6) MIKEY CAMDEN took no $$ from a similar spot last week and was no factor - may be in for more of

the same tonight. (7) MARLBANK ROAD tired after cutting the mile from the rail last week, and will now

have to contend with Post 7 - sticking with others.


RACE 3 - (1) MY CARBON COPY N is pretty sharp right now, but unlikely to attract a lot $$ in a field

with several solid players - he may end up tripping out off a heated pace, with a chance to deliver an upset.

(7) ALWAYS AND AGAIN has faced (and beaten) better for much of this year - obviously not an ideal

spot, but Bartlett has an uncanny way of finding trips even from spots like this - another that should be

offering good value tonight. (4) VELOCITY KOMODO most recent win came vs. easier but he's done

plenty of damage against better as well (9 wins, $173K this year) - the right trip makes him a real threat. (2)

B LIKE CRUISER tends to be a little streaky and he does seem to be in "lesser" mode right now - that

could turn on a dime, but be careful about taking a short price here. (5) ROCK CANDY was no factor in

his last couple but does drop tonight - leaning more towards a few others, but he'd hardly be a shock. (6)

ELWELL really disappointed 2 back but rebounded with a game first over win last week - tough draw for

tonight, however, and this is also a much more solid field. (8) AS ALWAYS disappointed in a couple of

recent local starts but returned for a new barn last week and was able to deliver a sharp, dominant victory -

opened some eyes for sure, but tonight's task (facing better, from Post 8) will be a lot tougher! (3) ESCAPE

TOTHEBEACH was scratched sick on 11/7 and just re-qualified - he looked good in that prep, but this is a

tough return spot!


RACE 4 - (1) PASS A GRILLEBEACH was very well meant from post 7 last week but ended up brutally

parked by the equally well meant AMERICANLIGHTNINGN - let's look for a calmer situation tonight,

with the two of these battling late for the top spot. (3) AMERICANLIGHTNINGN was obviously VERY

well meant last week but was forced to :26.4, :55.4 fractions by the parked PASS A GRILLEBEACH and

gave way in the lane, doing a nice job holding 2nd - the main danger in a race where last week's battlers

both are looking at much easier trips. (5) QUALITY BUD is highly risky at the moment (breaks in 2 of his

last 3) but he's more than capable of making some late noise if able to mind his manners tonight. (6)

LEVINE seemed to b getting pretty sharp then started tailing again - returned with a solid try off the sick

scratch, and may be a good one to throw in for 3rd/4th tonight. (7) HERRICKROOSEVELT N ended up in

an easy spot last week and was able to get back to the winner's circle - rough draw for tonight (while up in

class), and that may limit him to a smaller share. (8) VIVA LAS VEGAS N actually fits nicely with these

but faces a very long haul from post 8 - keep an eye for next time. (4) REAL LUCKY N was better last

week but was also helped by an easy trip - would still like to see a bit more before hopping back on his

team. (2) JESSE DUKE N took 3 tries to (barely) get re-qualified and doesn't look ready for prime time at

the moment.


RACE 5 - Interesting race (perhaps the tote board will be of some help): (4) ARDEN MESSI N qualified

sharply upon arrival from Down Under (in NJ), charged home to be a close 3rd in his first start then was a

sharp winner (as the favorite) in PA last week- we'll give him the narrow nod in his Hilltop debut (2) SAVE

ME A DANCE had been struggling a bit but was "sneaky good" in his last local start - moves inside, and

his best effort would make him a legitimate threat here. (1) BILL HALEY N flopped cutting the mile at

Chester last week but he'll get an easier trip tonight - the in and out veteran can be around for a good piece

if in the right mood. (6) IDEALSOMEMAGIC A is the real "x factor" here - his first U.S. qualifier was

excellent, finishing 2nd behind the classy PRICELESS BEACH - liked his chances in his first YR start but

he was scratched sick that night - just qualified very nicely again, and may very well be good enough to

beat these....he may also be handled conservatively tonight, and that makes him a bit of a mystery. (5) THE

REAL ONE knew he was in pretty cheap last week and responded to the (rare) aggressive handling to win

easily - this field is much tougher, but the classy 12YO can never be counted out. (3) SAULSBROOK HER

O hasn't been traveling all that smoothly lately, but he still tries hard - chance to rally for a piece? (8) MOT

IVE HANOVER is feeling pretty good right now, and last week's victory was very impressive - he's

looking at another tough trip, and it'll be a lot harder to pull it off against these. (7) MULLINAX has failed

too many times vs. lesser to like his chances against these from Post 7.


RACE 6 - (1) JACKS LEGEND N was just road tested in his first start for a new barn 2 back but charged

home full of pace - was sent off at 1/5 last week and delivered a powerful brush and crush victory -- he

moves up a notch here, but he's a solid Open pacer when "right"....and he sure seems "right", right now! (5)

NADOLO N brought his "A game" last week and was a very sharp first over winner - gets a free ride in the

class, and should be able to have a big say tonight, as well. (2) FAMILY RECIPE beat this class 2 back in a

very hard used mile, then charged home for 3rd from well back last week - he's clearly on his game right

now, and figures to be able to grab a good chunk here. (6) ODDS ON OSIRIS just missed in NW20000 2

back but stepped up to the Open last week and almost pulled off the upset - the poor post may limit him a

bit tonight, however. (3) COALITION HANOVER has held his form very nicely as he recently climbed the

class ladder - another good draw gives him at least a shot at a minor share. (7) FUNATTHEBEACH N isn't

"bad' right now, but he also hasn't been the same horse that banked nearly $600K this year - stuck way

outside, and others just seem more appealing right now. (4) SOHO LENNON A has been on an excellent

roll lately, but may have to settle for a minor piece in this solid field. (8) JUSTA LITTLE BIT A is the

outsider, both literally and figuratively.


RACE 7 - Good race! (4) FEELIN WESTERN has been a bridesmaid the last 3 weeks, racing very well but

coming up 2nd best each time - may benefit from a contested pace tonight, and perhaps this is the week

where he's able to rally on by. (1) THE REGULATOR didn't fire 2 back but he won the starts before that,

then was a (game) winner again last week- more than capable in his current form. (7) OZONE BLUE CHIP

is a streaky sort that's been hitting on all cylinders lately, and brings a 4 race win streak into tonight - Post 7

will definitely push him to his limits if he hopes to extend that streak to 5! (2) BRAEVIEW BONDI A had

been knocking on the door in several starts before cashing in on last week's class drop - he's capable of

beating these too, and the right trip would give him a chance to do so. (5) SETH HANOVER made an

unexpected break before the start last week but raced very well after landing - he's been sharp for a long

time, but may be looking at only a smaller share in this very strong field. (6) TJS INDY PACER was no

factor in his first local start, then an ok 3rd in his next - may have some trouble against these starting from a

tough post. (3) WHITECOOKIE perked up to beat softer 2 back, but he's been struggling against these.


RACE 8 - (1) LYONS JOHNNYJNR didn't bring his best when 3rd last week but he was a winner in his

previous 2 starts - he draws best and while not a cinch, he certainly deserves top billing. (2) PLAY THE FI

ELD was in tough spots in his last couple but cut the mile and just missed to #1 three starts back - chance to

outperform that 9-1 ML price from this spot. (3) BETTOR BE OSCAR raced ok from tough spots in his

last couple - he's a bit of a question mark off the sick scratch, but still playable underneath in exotics. (6)

BETTER B SWIFT qualified nicely after a month off and was a good 2nd in his first start back behind a

stickout - tough draw for tonight, but that 20-1 ML price does seem tempting. (8) MONGOLIAN HERO N

fits with these for sure but will probably have a tough time finding a decent trip from out here - maybe a

small piece? (5) HURRIKANEKINGAMES just missed in 25s last week but may be pressing his luck up

here in 30s - wouldn't shock, but definitely leaning to a few others. (4) AUDI HARE N qualified sharply

but has to be considered a major question mark after missing a year - will probably just keep an eye on him

for tonight. (7) LATE MAIL N is notoriously camera shy...and continuing to draw poorly isn't helping!


RACE 9 - (3) JUDDY DOUGLAS A was no threat last week but he was racing in NW20000 on an off

track - he had a pair of very promising 2nds prior to that (first 2 U.S. starts) and may be able to be a bigger

player with tonight's class drop. (4) SARANAC BLUE CHIP was right there behind the dropdown winner

last week and his season has been terrific, overall - this is a spot where he can be handled aggressively, and

that's when he's at his best - legitimate threat. (1) SO MANY ROADS has been sharp for most of the year,

but continues to come up light in the win column - he'll be pretty well backed here and while he does have

a chance to come out on top, he may be better used underneath in the exotics. (6) MACHEASY A folded 3

back but may have choked that night - came back with a win and a 3rd after that, and the only real knock

here is the post - good value horse for exotics at that 15-1 ML price. (7) FOREVER FAV has been facing

better for some time, racing well more often than not - he's struggled to WIN races this year, however, and

tonight's draw may offset the class drop a bit - maybe a small piece? (8) ROCKATHON raced well up in

class last week despite a tough trip, but will need a lot to go his way to be a serious player from out here.

(2) ALWAYS ROCKIN hasn't been able to beat lesser so far, and is hard to endorse against this solid field.

(5) ALEX TYE seems to need to be considerably cheaper these days to be a threat.

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