Thursday Empire Report

soaofny • June 24, 2021

The Empire Report - Thursday, June 24, 2021 - Race Analysis

RACE 1 - (4) CHECKERED PAST woke up in a big way last week, just missing to #1 after a string of 6

straight starts without even earning a purse check - if she can just build off that a little bit, perhaps she can

turn the tables on that rival tonight. (1) FEAR MY SHADOW was tested hard by the top choice last week

but was able to survive, and pick up the win - clearly the one to knock off as she draws the pole once again.

(2) FULL DECK just hasn't panned out since joining this high % barn recently, but she's been good enough

to be a threat for a piece here with the good inside draw. (5) ISLAY N shipped in sharp from PA but was no

factor at all in her YR return - gets a drop and some post relief, so perhaps we can look for a better effort

this week. (6) EYE POPPING looked ready to back out of it last week but then did a little better at the end -

overall form has been no good for some time, but she was a good horse here at one point...not a bad bomb

to at least consider. (3) SWEET MOVES ships in off a series of weak efforts, and will need to be a lot

better to have any real say here. (7) BETTERTHANBRIE just hasn't been any good in a very long time -

and Post 7 won't help! (8) KEENE OLIVIA was no factor in her last local tries - pass from Post 8.


RACE 2 - Tough race! (2) THE PAPA BEAR made a break in his last at PcD but does show a few decent

tries in the midwest - hails from a sharp barn, and should be able to have a big say against these...as long as

he stays trotting. (8) YUCATAN PARTY MAN is 0 for 16 but he's board in 10 of those starts, and behaves

every week - definitely better than most (all?) of these, but he also starts from Post 8 with an inexperienced

pilot, while figuring to be fairly well backed - make sure to get a fair price if using on top. (4) EYES OF

JUSTICE has to get a better trip than last week, where his local debut saw him parked the mile (while

clogging the outer rim) - the post relief will help, and he has a good chance to land somewhere on the ticket

(5) SV ROYAL FLUSH showed some improvement in his last 2 Chester starts - Dube's own may be ready

to be a contender now. (1) HEARTOFGOLD DEVIE was probably a little better in his last start (in PA),

and he does mind his manners - chance for a piece. (3) BIG CHARLIE MORAN is hard to like off his lines

but he does go from his trainer to Zeron in the bike - maybe that's enough to elevate him into being a

player? (6) CANE GANG would have been a bit closer last week if not for a stretch break - he's had issues

staying flat since his 2YO season, and just seems a little risky right now. (7) SQUABLE hadn't been any

good in a long series of starts/qualifiers but did finally finish with SOME interest in last - not ready to use

him yet, but will at least start watching him a little closer.


RACE 3 - (2) PIVOTAL was trapped way too long last week but trotted powerfully in the final quarter

once free and clear - 3YO seems to have some legitimate ability, and he still figures to be a square price in

here - definitely worth a play. (3) DUKE OF LINDY went a couple of "sneaky good" efforts here a few

starts back so it really was no surprise when he shipped over to Pocono and picked up a win - returned to

finish 2nd to the talented Ethan T Hanover, but just seemed to get lost at the back of the pack in his last -

move inside should allow him to be a serious player again. (1) SHARE THE WEALTH has two 2nds and

two 3rds from his 4 local starts - has speed from the rail, and will be a strong factor from start to finish. (6)

SOUTHWIND RITZ has been a solid player since making her debut back in April, and ships in from PcD

off a pair of 2nd place finishes - drawing outside all her main foes figures to hurt, though. (7) CHROME

PACKAGE used an easy trip to pick up 3rd in his first local try - draws outside now, and that figures to hurt

his output significantly. (8) TRIUMPHUS was on and off the bit in his only local try, and seems like he

may prefer a bigger track - brutal spot, regardless. (4) BROAD STROKES was an even 5th last week, and

will need to find more if he hopes to contend for even a small piece, (5) DESTINY BLUE CHIP seems to

be over her breaking issues, but she just hasn't been sharp at all in her last couple.


RACE 4 - (5) ANGELS PRIDE elected to just take back from Post 8 last week, was a zillion lengths back

at the half yet still only lost the whole race by a handful of lengths - drops, gets a much better post, and a

much more serious effort is expected. (1) ASHTINI was doing good work vs. much better not long ago, but

seems to have gone off form a bit ever since getting brutally (and senselessly) parked by Nick Clegg back

on 5/20 - have to believe she'll be a big factor from this spot, though. (6) ACEFOURTYFOUR ALEX was

an upset winner vs. lesser 3 back, and her last couple are a bit better than they look on paper - maybe can

find a way to land on the bottom of the ticket at a big price? (3) MOTU MOONBEAM N had several rough

starts after a long form spree came to an end but last week's effort was a bit more encouraging - we'll see if

she can build off that. (2) SHELLIE DE VIE hasn't been able to beat lesser so it's hard to like her chances

here - may just sit fairly close and stick around for a piece though. (4) ZOE ELLASEN benefited from an

inside trip to grab a nice 3rd last time - moves up a notch, and may not be as fortunate. (7) AMERICAN

TOUR seems to have tailed off form, and draws worst on top of that.


RACE 5 - (1) CAVALIER GEORGE was handled aggressively last time and delivered the sharp victory -

comes back in the same class and draws the pole tonight...making him the one to catch, and beat. (2) CHAP

OLIER has been steadily improving for a sharp trotting barn, has had no trouble getting over the half, and

may prove the main danger to the top one. (3) ROYSONS PUNCH was a steady 3rd behind #1 last week,

and that followed a close 2nd in an Excelsior A race at VD - logical threat for exotics. (5) BREEZING PRA

YER can go some decent miles when he behaves - maybe throw in for 3rd? (6) FATHER DUNN was doing

good work here this winter before tailing off, then taking 3 months on the shelf - qualifier looks fine, but

would prefer to just watch him this week. (4) BRILLIANT BOB moves to a high % barn upon arrival from

Ohio but he's just 3 for 58 in his career, and historically cheap - have seen this barn do some great work

with fresh pieces, but this may be asking too much. (7) PANTHERAAS draws poorly for her local debut

and was scratched sick from her last - will just watch, for now. (8) CHERRY RED hasn't been bad in his

last few, but faces a tall task from all the way out here.


RACE 6 - (3) DEMETER N didn't even pretend to be interested from Post 8 last week but it should be a

completely different story tonight, with the significant class drop AND post relief - anything close to her

best would be enough to handle these. (2) CASIES BELIEVER was used most of the way last but in the

end, was able to hold off a very sharp rival in what became a two horse race - shouldn't have any trouble

dealing with tonight's class bump, and is looking at another good piece. (4) MILWOOD BONNIE N has

been picking up smaller pieces lately and an easy trip should allow her to do the same tonight - use on the

bottom of tris and supers. (5) MALNIFICENT hasn't done anything since the recent claim but she's also

been facing better - license to improve with tonight's class relief. (6) LADYTBELUCKYTONITE has been

holding her form for a long time, but just may have a little too far to come tonight - minor share only from

this spot. (1) SANDYS BEACH really hasn't been sharp, and sometimes she gets too close to the pace from

spots like this (which she really doesn't like - leaning elsewhere. (7) CHASE YOU was very good from a

tough spot last week, but this spot is even tougher- not sure there's a way for her to get into the hunt. (8)

ANNABETH draws poorly again, and will likely have to wait for a better spot.


RACE 7 - Short field, but should be a good race! (3) GIAS SURREAL has raced well in all 4 starts since

shipping in from NJ, and was really flying from an impossible spot in her last - they may mix things up a

bit tonight, and that would give her an opportunity to pick them off late. (5) SURREAL FEELING beat this

class here 2 starts back, and is currently riding a 3 race win streak (trying not to be outdone by her full

sister Racine Bell, who just tied a world record at The Swamp) - she handles any trip, and that could help

her in an unpredictable race. (2) SPORTS FLIX was very sharp in Ohio before the recent purchase, and was

awfully sharp in her local debut as well - would be no surprise at all. (6) FEELIN RED HOT has been

feelin' good for a while, and last week's win was as sharp as we've seen her in some time - hard to say if

she'll be able to find a manageable trip tonight but if she does, she'll be a handful once again. (1) DRAGON

ROLL was forced to jump from "NWPM" classes to the Preferred last week, wasn't given an inside post,

but still had plenty of life finishing - not ready to hop on her team at this level just yet, but will definitely

follow her closely from here on. (4) JOSSIE JAMES A is being "picked last", but her form has been

outstanding for some time, and she can't be taken lightly even with the class hike.


RACE 8 - (6) GOLDEN QUEST N came up empty last week but may have already had tonight's class drop

in mind heading into that race - she's now at a level she hasn't seen in some time, and really should be able

to beat this field....but she's also winless on the year, likely to be overbet, and definitely not one to bet the

rent money on at a pretty short price. (4) ANN HILL used an aggressive drive to easily beat this class 2

back, and really wasn't bad against better in her last - deserves respect here in current form. (1) IRON MIS

TRESS got caught in a very fast mile last week and just couldn't stick with the top ones - gets a drop and

the rail tonight, and should be able to have a bigger say this time. (3) PETTYCOAT BUSINESS seemed

vulnerable at a short price heading into her last and she was no good at all - comes back now after missing a

month, and once again has to be viewed as pretty suspect....especially as that 5/2 ML price. (8) BYE BYE

MICHELLE is a big threat at this level...but maybe not from Post 8 - tote board may give clues as to her

intentions here. (5) BETCHA BABY has been pretty consistent lately, and really had no chance in last -

could see her grabbing another small piece, with the right trip. (7) BALFAST N seems too far out to do any

damage against these. (2) LACARMELILIANA shows a few good Monti lines but will need to prove that

she can hang with these tougher foes.


RACE 9 - Good race: (4) SHEIKH YABOOTY kicked home with plenty of pace to be 2nd to stickout

Rockn Philly 2 back, then put in a sustained (wide) move from last to rally up to be a close 4th in her last -

steps up and faces a solid field here but she's clearly on top of her game now, and the price will be right. (1)

CLASSY CHAPEL N had plenty of pace finishing behind a couple of nice mares off the claim last week,

and now drops into a softer spot while drawing the pole - very legitimate threat! (6) STOWAWAY HANO

VER hit a rough patch for a few starts, started to come out of it 4 back, took a tough loss to the talented

Dragon Roll 2 back but was super in her last at PcD, crushing the field and establishing a new 1:50.1 mark

- talented 4YO can't be counted out when on her best game...which she is, right now. (2) BRONZE OVER

N has been very solid for a while, and the good draw puts her in play for another good piece. (5) STELLEN

BOSCH always seems to ship in sharp from out of town, but has been able to replicate that form locally the

past couple of years - ok for a piece, but prefer others for the top slots. (3) ROCKIN THE BOYS A has

been solid lately, but faces much tougher this week and may struggle a bit. (8) ALII NUI fits nicely, but

will be hard pressed to be too much of a threat from Post 8. (7) CABOWABOCUTTIE figures to get away

7th after getting parked in her last - wait for a better scenario.


RACE 10 - (1) MONICA GALLAGHER got good before the Matchmaker Series then held her own for

several weeks against some very tough mares - seemed to pay a price afterwards, though, as her form

started to fall off a bit - has been off for 24 days, lands in a new barn that often does super with fresh stock,

and we'll look for her to show up sharp...despite the time off. (2) IMPRINCESSGEMMAA broke in her

first start in a new barn but rebounded in a big way in her last, scoring the impressive first over win - has a

new listed trainer for tonight (suspension?), but the guess is that she'll show up with another big effort -

legitimate threat. (6) MACZAFFAIR N has never been known for her consistency and that was apparent in

her last, when she was nowhere near as sharp as the week before....despite an easier trip - outside draw

won't help her chances tonight, but she's still good enough to beat bunch of these even if not at her best. (4)

PONDER THE ODDS is a complete in and outer that wakes up with big miles at any time - probably still

looking at only a piece tonight, however. (3) ANNE BONNEY N is pretty good right now, and capable of

picking up another decent piece, even at this higher level. (5) ROCKNROLL ANNIE was able to "speed

pop" cheaper in her last two, but that doesn't seem like a possibility against these tougher mares. (7) LADY

ROCKNROLLAA needs an easier field...and a better post!


RACE 11 - Wide open: (2) TURBOCHARGEDPETE was handled very aggressively in his local debut

(despite racing off a bad date) and was an excellent 2nd - he was 34-1 that night and while he'll surely take

more $$ tonight, he should still be an attractive price - one of several that could take this. (7) HAYEK was a

total enigma when trained by the "Super Siblings", capable of big miles, clunkers, and everything in

between - has raced well twice for his new barn, and is capable of winning even from Post 7.... if in the

right mood! (5) SWISS HOUSE ONFIRE was tested hard by the top choice last week but prevailed in

gutsy fashion - might be able to make it 2 in a row. (1) BLUFFINER rattled off 4 straight blowouts in April

/May but has come back to earth in his last few - still a capable player here, but not worth that 9/5 ML price

(8) LOOK IN MY EYES hasn't been shy about leaving from Post 8 here in the past - good bomb to include

in exotics. (4) DESWANSLITTLELORRIE was a dead game 8 hole winner here 4 back but that was vs.

cheaper - not sure she can beat these, but a smaller piece is within reach. (6) HOBBS just can't find his top

form since turning 4, but it's not like he's been racing horribly - he'll be his best price in a while tonight for

those that think he's ready to pick up his game. (3) BAZILLIONAIRE has his moments, but still seems

below too many of these to be a threat.


RACE 12 - (5) SIESTA BEACH has been a strong Open mare for a long time now - freshened up after the

Matchmaker Series and finished full of pace on 6/10 - just toured the oval from Post 8 in her last, but we

can expect to see her best from this spot - gets top billing in the finale. (1) LOVELY DONNA shipped in

sharp and can hardly be faulted for her last, pacing a 3rd quarter in an eye popping :26.4 and STILL getting

passed by a scary FEELIN RED HOT - deserves plenty of respect tonight. (2) NORTH STAR IDEAL went

a huge mile 2 back when hung to dry after making a quarter move but still lasting for a good 4th - came

back to establish a new lifetime mark with last week's 1:51.4 score, and has to be used on your tickets in

her current form, despite the class hike. (3) YS TALLIA is another currently in the best form of her life, and

the inside draw givers her a good chance to land another god chunk. (4) WALTZWITHSIERRAA is still

winless in the U.S. but has hit board in 5 of 6 starts - would probably like to be in a bit easier, but could still

pick up another good piece with an easy enough trip. (6) NORMANS MADELINE drops a bit, moves in a

bit, but still will look better NEXT week, with another class drop. (7) ROCKN PHILLY has really upped

her game since moving to her current barn but this is by far the toughest spot she's been in, and she may be

an outsider this week. (8) JIVE DANCING A can hold her own with these from the inside, but is unlikely

to be able to have any real say from all the way out here.


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