The Empire Report - Thursday, November 10, 2022 - Race Analysis
RACE 1 - (6) B THREEWINDS had a rough start to her career but started to improve in August upon
exiting a very low % barn - added Lasix soon after that, and ships to YR with 2 wins and a 3rd from her last
4 starts in the midwest - she lands in a pretty soft field, and we'll hop on board for her local debut. (3) POC
OHONTAS doesn't exactly have a stellar record (28-1-2-4) but she's likely been facing much better up in
Canada - figures to be a threat here, even if by default. (5) CHAPERIDGE hasn't worked out since the
purchase this summer but his last couple suggest he may be starting to come around - another with a chance
in this overall soft field. (1) STARLIT THISWANMAN put in a big rush last week and looked like a major
threat....until just stopping on a dime entering the homestretch - he'll put it all together and win one of these
nights....maybe even tonight? (7) HECKRAISER HANOVER shipped in with good PA form but was a
pretty disappointing 3rd in his local debut, and now moves from the pole to Post 7 - will probably just
consider underneath from out here. (2) SQUABLE now has just 1 win and 1 second from his 42 career
starts - prefer others. (4) A MILLION CHUCKLES qualified ok for a new barn but her 21-1-2-0 slate
makes her hard to get excited about right now.
RACE 2 - (5) AMIGO VOLO was full of trot when 3rd in the Miecuna on International Trot Day then 3rd
(pl. 2nd) in the Breeders Crown last week - he has a 10-5-2-2 local record and we'll give him the nod
tonight, despite drawing outside a couple of very tough foes. (3) STORMY KROMER has won nearly half
of his 49 local starts the past 3 years, and is obviously a major threat any time he's in to go - would never be
a surprise. (4) SMOKING JET is having an amazing year (16 for 33) but made a costly break in his YR
debut, then couldn't quite hang on last week after cutting the mile - drawing outside of #3 may hurt his
chances here a bit (but still deserves plenty of respect). (1) FOCUS POCUS is shipping in VERY sharp
from PA for a high% trainer/driver combination - he hasn't proven he can beat the top guns in here, though,
so we'll consider him for a smaller piece only. (6) NOWS THE MOMENT is most dangerous when he can
race on/near the lead...wait for a better spot. (2) BEERTHIRTY K is totally unproven against these types -
will look to save ground, and hope to pick up a minor check
RACE 3 - (4) QUINCY MARKET is still a bit of a risk from week to week but he does have the ability to
beat these if he turns in one of his better efforts - we'll give him top billing, but would need a fair price to
use him on top. (5) SLAVE LABOUR was a steady 4th last week after landing in a tough spot for his YR
debut - should have a big say tonight. (1) DOWN THE PIKE MIKE moves to a new barn, and draws best
for his first start - seems to fit nicely with these, and could be a legitimate threat. (2) FIFTINI came into her
last off a break and a sick scratch but should benefit from the conservative trip she received - may be able
to land somewhere on this ticket at a decent price. (6) BY A HOFF HANOVER has gate speed and stays
trotting -- he's struggled to WIN this year, but always eligible to pick up a small piece. (3) AVACAKES got
too hot in that disastrous mile 3 back but bounced right back to win off the pace (at 21-1) in a "fall apart"
race the next week - trotted home steadily to pick up 4th last week, and is eligible to take home another
small piece tonight. (7) COUNT JOGGING did well in his first start shipping in from Ohio but quickly
went the wrong way after that
RACE 4 - (6) TAKE ALL COMERS has taken 4 of his last 6 starts, with the two losses being from
completely impossible spots in stake races - he faces a very sharp foe to his inside, but we'll still give him
the narrow edge (at hopefully the better price). (2) HIGHLAND MOWGLI has taken 5 of 6 himself, with
the lone loss coming by a nose to the currently red-hot GREY -- the main danger! (3) STARLIT RAMBO
gets some post relief after a couple of terrible spots - he's stepping up in class a bit, but he's done good work
here at YR and could add some value to the exotics. (5) HAT TRICK MARLEAU is a good fit at this level
but faces a bit of an uncertain trip tonight - a decent journey could certainly land him somewhere on the
ticket. (1) CREDIT CON may be a bit below the main players in here, but the inside draw may keep him
close enough to take home a minor check. (7) IN MY DREAMS was claimed last week from a race where
he made a break - draws worst for his new crew, and may have to wait for a better spot before showing his
best. (4) CRIME FIGHTER is a solid trotter for a good barn, but may just be a bit out of his league against
these tougher ones
RACE 5 - (3) HEY HEY DBAY had no prayer from Posts 7 and 8 the last 2 weeks but still wasn't bad -
moves inside now, catches a soft bunch, and this is a good spot for an aggressive try. (5) CRUSH ME raced
much better dropping to this level last week but the winner came up with a sharper mile - legitimate chance
in here. (4) BETTORSHIGHLIGHT N is hard to gauge from week to week - if she shows up with one of
her better efforts tonight, she can be a player for a good piece. (1) ROBMOTION BLUECHIP was well
meant and very aggressive last week but also reminded us why she's just 3 for 71 lifetime - can race better
tonight with an easier trip. (2) CHILLIN BYTHE POOL has managed just 1 second from her 8 local starts -
has a good post, but will need to be better for even a chance at a piece. (7) E R HILARY races "ok" at
times, but would need things to really fall apart to get close from out here. (6) ALMOST KAREN seems
better suited for cheaper.
RACE 6 - (4) CANTSTOP YANKEE wasn't at his best last week but still got the job done....after winning
3 back, and finishing an excellent 2nd behind LOOKS LIKE MONI the next week - remains the one to
knock off. (2) CIEL BLEU made a couple of breaks upon arrival from Canada but did show trot in between
- was able to stick to business last week and delivered a solid first over victory....eligible to keep improving
and perhaps be a major player tonight, as well. (6) BACKSTREET PLAYER has hit board in 8 of 9 local
starts, but only made it to the winner's circle once - tough draw, but remains a good one to include
underneath. (1) THE BOSS MAN (along with #6) was right there on the wire with the top choice last week
and he's looking at another good trip tonight from this spot - usually outraces his odds, and is another good
one for the bottom of exotics. (5) NICE GUY EDDIE was way overbet last week (after using perfect trips
to win his first 2 local starts) and ended up making a break before the start - certainly can bounce right back
tonight, but will probably be looking at only a smaller piece with a conservative steer expected. (7)
MUSCLE DAN was sharp crushing cheaper 2 back, then was a solid 2nd behind #2 last week - figures to
be hurt by the outside draw, however. (3) EXCHEQUER races ok sometimes, but he's 1 for 31 at YR, and
often hangs in the crucial stages
RACE 7 - (7) HL MAMMOTH got caught wide leaving here for his new barn 2 back and didn't survive the
first turn - hit the top cleanly in his last, but was overtaken in the lane by a sharp winner and settled for 2nd
- meets nothing too scary tonight, should be a better price, and may be worth another shot. (3) SECRET
RULE got stuck in the back here (with his owner driving) on 10/27 and we'll just excuse that one -
rebounded with a solid try in PA, and Buter will be at the lines tonight - should be a very live player. (4)
MAGICAL MAJOR got some post relief last week and raced much better, picking up a 2nd behind the
favorite - draws well enough tonight for a chance at another good piece. (2) WALK WITH ME raced better
in his first 2 local tries than in his last pair, but still looks like a threat to grab a decent chunk with the inside
draw. (6) SAID N DONE AS grabbed the lead and stole a 1:00.1 half last week, allowing him to fend off
pressure on the final turn and win easily in the lane - figures to have a harder time tonight starting from
Post 6, against this better bunch. (1) ARABELLAS GLIDER is 0 for 17 this year and looking at only a
minor share, even from the pole. (5) BRUTUS BEEFCAKE B was an ok 4th last week in his local debut -
not ready to hop on his team just yet, but he's worth at least watching for now
RACE 8 - (2) HEY LIVVY qualified sharply adding the trotting hopples but the nothing went right last
week (got caught in, and then stuck behind a tired horse) - her connections drop her right back in the box,
and the classy 7YO will be a lot better price this week -- not a bad time to take a shot with her. (6) GREY
just transformed into a different animal after the September barn change, going 7-4-1-1 and winning the
last two FM Opens - very real threat to take another. (4) QUEEN OF ALL had a rare "no factor" start 2
back but rebounded with a game, hard used 3rd last week - can be right in the hunt once more. (3) DREAM
ONHIGH earned $367K (so far) at 2 an 3 and has legitimate talent for sure - she's also a 3YO filly taking
on good older mares, and that 2-1 ML price has us looking at other ones for the top slot. (5) PLUMB is
actually pretty good right now - she'll be a nice price, and does have a chance to rally late for a piece. (1)
TITANS HOPE raced pretty well in her first try at this (much) higher level, but still would be hard to back
against these types
RACE 9 - Tough finale: (2) SOUND IDEA has struggled through a tough year but was legitimately sharp
in last week's victory, and may gain some confidence from it - meets a shaky group here, and may be able
to make it 2 in a row. (4) SCANDALICIOUS is another that hasn't had the best of years, but this is the type
of field where she can have a big say - just don't accept too short a price. (8) TEMPUS SEELSTER was 3rd
vs. a much better field 2 back, then might have been closer last week if she hadn't been running through the
lane - brutal post, but that 15-1 ML price makes her worth at least a look. (3) SHELLIE DE VIE is 0 for 14
here this year but she returns to YR racing well (vs. cheaper) out of town, and may be able to grab a piece
of this. (6) IMPRINCESSGEMMAA has struggled in many of her recent local starts and doesn't currently
resemble the version we've been used to seeing here the past few years - she tries without Lasix tonight --
maybe that can help? (7) ELLEOFADELI isn't bad right now but couldn't reach from a similar spot last
week. (1) SHORTYS GIRL picked up a 2nd in her last but has been away for a month (sick scratch) -
sticking with others. (5) MILADY DENVER A wasn't terrible last week but we'll wait until she's back at
the bottom level before thinking about using her