The Empire Report - Monday, November 14, 2022 - Race Analysis
RACE 1 - (1) SOUTHWIND ONYX has been sharp, is looking at a very good trip from this spot and
seems the "most likely" to come out on top - he's also exiting a hot barn and is listed at 6/5 ML....so don't
fall in love at too short a price! (3) DEETZY drops back down to a better level after being in 3 straight
tough spots vs. the 40s - look for a better, more aggressive try tonight. (6) SULLIVAN beat these on 8/27
and has been racing ok since then - tough spot here, but that 20-1 ML price makes him worth at least a
look. (7) POSH ONTHE BEACH A went a big mile last week, used hard all the way and only losing it at
the end - he can handle the class jump, but it's the bad draw that's a bigger concern - consider if the price is
juicy enough. (4) ROLL WITH JR goes for the 2nd time for his new barn after failing to threaten in the 1st
attempt - we'll see if he's just no good right now, or if he can come up with a better one tonight. (8) FLOW
WITH JOE took advantage of a "fall apart" race last week and despite being way overbet, was able to rally
by for the win - won't be as easy to replicate that mile from out here, even for his red hot barn. (2) SHORE
VIEW moves to a new barn not really known as a "claiming stable" while also moving up in class - good
post, but still leaning to others. (5) URBAN RENEWAL also was able to rally by in a "fall apart" race 2
starts back, but has otherwise been non-threatening in most of his recent efforts
RACE 2 - (5) TOWNLINE ALL GOOD packs a powerful late punch and has been sharp for some time - if
they mix things up just a bit up front, he may be able to pick up the pieces late...and he's usually a pretty
good price. (4) LONG WEEKEND A has been pretty reliable lately and comes into this off a narrow loss to
a sharp rival - look for a sharp, aggressive try tonight. (2) DARK ENERGY N has been racing pretty well
but may need to be in a little cheaper...the inside draw at least puts him in play for a very good trip, and he
may be able to capitalize with a good effort. (3) GINGRAS BEACH hasn't won in a while but he does pick
up pieces consistently - use underneath. (6) MARCO BEACH has several strong recent efforts but his best
work does come from on/near the lead - that 20-1 ML price does look appealing, but he may find himself a
little too far out to do his best damage. (1) GHOST DANCE will surely attract $$ from this spot but his last
effort was weak, and he's missed 3 weeks since then - could be vulnerable right now. Both (7) GINGER TR
EE PETE and (8) JACKAMINO fit with these and have some good recent efforts between them...but both
figure to have a hard time getting into play from their terrible posts
RACE 3- (5) SAILBOAT HANOVER has been scary sharp since being claimed by his current connections
on 8/20 and can handle any trip that comes his way - he faces a couple of other sharpies in here, but we'll
give him the narrow edge for tonight. (4) SHERIFF N has won half of his 20 local starts this year and like
the top choice, can deal with all sorts of trips - the main danger! (1) CAVIART SARGENT has also been on
an extended form spree, especially when not used too hard early in the mile - he draws best, and will be
there to pick up the pieces should the top two falter. (2) BLUEBIRD RECON has enjoyed an outstanding
year but does seem to have tailed a just a bit lately - still one to include underneath, though. (3) GENTLEM
ANJIM II IE threw a dud last start but finished 2nd in his prior 2 - worth including on the bottom of exotics
at that 20-1 ML price. (7) MISTER SPOT A is another that has been on quite a roll, holding his form from
the lower levels all the way up to tonight's $50K claimer (for 3 different barns) - may have a hard time
reaching from this far out, though. (6) KERFORD ROAD A hasn't really been a threat in recent weeks and
he faces a very strong bunch tonight - wait for an easier spot. (8) MANKAT is probably sharper than he
looks on paper, but another 8 hole will likely derail him for another week
RACE 4 - Good race! (5) L DEES JACK LOPEZ went a strong mile in defeat last week, used for most of
the hot :26.2 opener then battling hard first over before finally being rebuffed by the very sharp winner -
he's been good for weeks, will be a better price tonight, and may be able to take this with the right trip. (1)
MACHEASY A has drawn poorly in 5 of his last 7 starts but he has a win and a 2nd the two weeks when
he landed decent posts - moves all the way inside now, and may be able to spring an upset (if things go his
way). (3) BELTANE A came back to life last week (after a couple of rough outings) with a hard charging
2nd against the well backed, frontrunning favorite - he's been 1st of 2nd in 26 of his local starts (past 2 yrs.)
and would be no surprise here at all. (7) ROCK CANDY was caught first over against the sharp winner last
week and weakened a bit at the end to 3rd - gets no luck with the draw tonight, but still merits a look IF the
price is decent. (4) IMSTAYNALIVE has raced well (vs. better) for most of this year and certainly fits well
in here.....his 1 for 22 local record this year does make it hard to use him on top, though! (2) ALTA BLUES
A seemed to finally be hitting on all cylinders before throwing a dull one last week - suppose he could be a
threat if he can bounce right back to that better form. (6) MICKY GEE N was definitely rounding back into
form before being scratched sick last week - bit of a guessing game as to what we'll get from him tonight,
especially coming from well off the pace. (8) REVELRY was no factor in first off the layoff last week (in
PA) and now draws Post 8 - we'll just watch, for now
RACE 5 - (1) UNCLE JORD A was sent off even money against better last week but couldn't deliver the
winning stretch rally after pacing a bit 3rd panel just to stay close to the action - he drops and draws the
pole and while hardly a "cinch" here, he's definitely the one to knock off. (2) BETTORBUCKLEUP raced
much better than expected in his first start off the layoff last week, rallying very nicely for 4th - he's eligible
to be even sharper tonight, and looms a legitimate threat with the right trip. (4) TELL THEM LOU finally
lands a decent post after three straight no-chance spots - hard to say if he's ready to do any damage now, but
it's not a bad week to at least consider him for exotics. (3) COALITION HANOVER has delivered 3
straight solid efforts, producing a pair of 2nds and a win last week - he'll face tougher now, but may be
sharp enough to still be in the hunt. (5) REIGNING DEO tends to be camera shy locally, but he often races
well - not a fan of using him on top at that 5/2 ML price, but he can certainly be included underneath. (6)
ROCKIN JUKEBOX really perked up in his last pair, picking up a win and a good 3rd - tough post while
up in class tonight, and that may leave him looking at only a smaller share. (7) CHANTEE charged home in
both local starts after arriving from Canada, winning both - he'll be coming from well back against better
now, and he's another that's likely going to have to settle for a smaller slice this time. (8) MR KELLY will
likely need a much better spot to be a serious player against this type
RACE 6 - (5) SMOKING BY N was left with no chance from Post 8 last week, but he finished with plenty
of interest at the end - he's been in fine form for some time, and Kakaley has far more options from this
spot - we'll go with him on top. (1) B LIKE CRUISER has a pair of 2nds from his last 3 starts (with Post 8
in the other) - moves all the way inside, and looms a very real threat here. (3) OZONE BLUE CHIP was in
career form for a while before hitting a snag for a few starts (from tough spots) - raced very hard last week
before coming up a nose shy to BLANK STARE (who raced super in his next), and a similar effort would
put him right in the hunt tonight. (2) MAXIMUS RED A benefited from a hot pace last week but still raced
very well himself to score the 26-1 upset - he was a close 3rd 3 starts down, and a good trip puts him in
play for another good piece tonight. Both (7) BRAEVIEW BONDI A and (8) OUR CORELLI N fit well
with these, but both will need a lot of luck from out here to be serious threats tonight - keep an eye for next
time. (4) OSTRO HANOVER has been on the shelf since the Borgata ended in April - hard to even think of
recommending him for a wager at that 2-1 ML price! (6) WHITECOOKIE shipped in and beat this class 4
starts back, but his last 3 leave a lot to be desired - sticking with others
RACE 7 - (3) MIKES Z TAM last start at this level at Yonkers was a winning one and he returns from PA
off a win vs. better - the class was opened up tonight to squeeze him (""NW15201L5") so we'll see if he can
take full advantage. (1) PRETTY HANDSOME has faced better much of the year and draws the pole with
Gingras - lots to like, but he's also thrown a bunch of "meh" efforts lately, and figures to be heavily backed
here -- could be a bit vulnerable right now. (2) NOWHERE CREEK A wasn't bad 2 back (Post 7 off a sick
scratch) and he rallied well for 3rd (almost 2nd) in his last - the right trip could make him very dangerous.
(6) DELIGHTFUL DUDE N makes his U.S. debut showing 12 wins Down Under...hard to know how well
he'll fit here, but perhaps the tote board will offer some clues? (4) JAHAN HANOVER was sent off favored
last week (after a fast closing 3rd the week before) and delivered gamely on the front end - steps up to face
better tonight, and we'll give a slight edge to a few of the ones inside of him. (7) SOHO LENNON A wired
much easier 3 back, just missed in NW10000 in his next then paced evenly for 5th (at this level) last week -
feels like a tough spot tonight. (8) CAPTAIN SLEAZE is pretty good right now, but faces a tall task
moving up in class and starting all the way outside. (5) MARLBANK ROAD probably needs some class
relief before we see his best again.
RACE 8 - Short, but well matched field: (2) ODDS ON CAPITALISM showed fine form against the Ohio
3YOs but was being asked to take on some very tough older foes in his YR debut - he left for tuck, did all
the work first over then wore down the razor sharp leader to score VERY impressively - faces another
tough field tonight (and will be a shorter price), but may be sharp enough to beat these too. (6) PRICELESS
BEACH did outstanding work when he first arrived on the scene earlier this year, including some very
impressive miles at the Open level - tailed for a bit, but was really starting to do his best work again before
going on the shelf for a few weeks after a disappointing try on 9/12 - his qualifier suggests that he's
ready...and he'll be tough if that's the case. (1) THE WILD CARD has been ultra consistent for months,
though he hasn't been able to get his picture taken since 8/8 - finished 3rd behind the top choice last week,
but he could easily reverse that decision tonight. (4) ALWAYS AND AGAIN has enjoyed a terrific 2022
season, and will appreciate the drop from the Open - as long as he's a fair price, he's absolute playable. (3)
BENHOPE RULZ N has been in the hunt week after week for months, though his best work does come vs.
a bit easier - more likely a smaller piece here than a bigger one. (5) GENIUS MAN is doing good things
lately but he's forced to step up off a loss, and he catches a very strong field here - may struggle just a bit
RACE 9 - (1) MACH DORO A was well backed from Post 6 last week but was used too hard early and left
with an empty tank in the latter stages - should have things considerably easier from this spot, and he may
be able to take these wire to wire. (3) TIN ROOF RAIDER A has been very consistent at this level but
while hitting board in 6 of 10 local starts this year, he's yet to visit the winner's circle - maybe tonight, if the
trip goes his way. (4) GOTHIC ROCK suddenly elevated his game to the $40K level recently and he raced
well enough times to conclude that it wasn't a fluke - forgive his last try in N and look for him to be a
player once again returning to YR. (7) SOHO CHELSEAA raced ok vs. better last week after missing 3
weeks - he MAY need to be in an easier spot, but he's still worth at least a look tonight at what figures to be
a decent price. (2) DESIRES CAPTAIN has more disappointing miles than good ones lately - he'd have a
chance here on his best effort, but it's hard to expect that from him on any given week. (6) ONE OFF DELI
GHT A had a pair of 2nds off the claim in October but seems to have tailed since then - in need of a wake
up call. (5) BETTOR BE OSCAR A was off a bad date last week and was making his first start away from
a barn that had been winning at nearly a 40% clip - he was no factor at all, but we'll see what this week
brings. (8) MOONLIGHT SHADOW dropped in class last week but threw a dismal effort - now Post 8