The Empire Report - Thursday, October 21, 2021 - Race Analysis
RACE 1 - (7) COWGIRL LILLY raced conservatively the past 2 weeks but finished well each time -
there's not a ton of speed in here and this may not be a bad spot for Brennan to drive her more aggressively
- decent value play in the opener. (4) MACZAFFAIR N showed some life 2 back and was hammered at the
windows for her last - ended up with a trip MUCH worse than her line would suggest, and just seemed to
lose interest by the final turn - probably deserves a chance to make amends as she drops yet another notch.
(5) BYE BYE MICHELLE sat the pocket trip last week but didn't have enough at the end to pick up a win -
takes a class drop tonight, and would be no surprise here at all. (1) PAIGES GIRL generally paces well at
the end, and she gets both class and post relief for tonight - prefer others on top, but she could definitely
find her way onto the ticket somewhere. (2) E R HILARY steps up off last week's victory after being
claimed - does her best work one level down, however, and is likely looking at only a minor share tonight.
(3) DIBABA N finished right behind #2 last week, and she's another that looks more attractive in NW5000
- prefer others. (8) AMERICAN TOUR N is a total "in and outer" but figures to have a tough time from this
spot even if on her game tonight.
RACE 2 - (3) OPERATION SHIPLEY arrived with a stellar record at the Iowa fairs but was no match at
all for a much sharper DROP THE MIC that night - came back with an excellent off the pace 3rd last week,
and perhaps can turn the tables here on her main rival (with that one returning off a sick scratch). (6) DROP
THE MIC was used much harder than #3 in his last but still able to trot on by in the stretch - was scratched
sick from his next, however, and may be a bit vulnerable this time around. (5) SEARCHING FOR YOU is
another Iowa invader with a terrific record - couldn't quite loop to the lead from Post 7 last week and made
a break, but he'll be a decent price tonight and may be worth a follow up. (1) JESSIES OUTLAWED was a
close 3rd and then close 2nd in his 2 local appearances - seems below the top ones, but can definitely pick
up a good piece from this spot. (2) TRIUMPHUS feels like a work in progress - probably has some ability,
but we'll just keep an eye on him for now. (7) CHERRY MASON is just 1 for 24, and that win came here in
a 1972-like 2:04.4 mile - minor piece at best from out here. (4) KEYSTONE CECILIA has been struggling
- needs to show much more. (8) BIG CHARLIE MORAN flattened quickly after trying a wide move last
week, and now draws Post 8 with his trainer on board - sticking with others.
RACE 3 - (3) GOTTALOVEMYSHADOW backed through the field in NJ last week but drops right back
in the box, so guessing it was nothing major - she's held her own with better here in the past, and might be a
good play in a race where it's hard to "love" anybody (5) GREENHILL HANOVER was an odds-on winner
the only time she raced here at this level (but for a different barn) - drops into a pretty blank field, and
should be a pretty live player with these. (4) ACEFORTYFOUR DOME added Lasix last week but really
didn't show much improvement - perhaps tonight's class drop will help produce a better effort? (7) ZOE
ELLASEN has been racing pretty well out of town but she's 0 for 19 here (last 2 years) and draws Post 7 -
using underneath only. (1) HIGH ROLLING A drops all the way to the basement now, but she just isn't
finishing her miles at all - hard to consider for a play at that 8/5 ML price. (8) SANDY WIN wasn't bad
when 3rd last week and gets Zeron in the bike tonight - will probably be coming from a long way back,
however. (6) BEAUTY BAYAMA hasn't done much of anything lately. (2) DEVIOUS DELIGHT was 2nd
at Fhd. last week but still looks badly overmatched against these.
RACE 4 - (3) BARKEEPER's last two NW3 starts at Chester would make him a solid player in here - his
young pilot is having good local success (with limited starts), and has a chance to pick up another winner
with this guy. (6) GREG has gone off the odds-on choice in all 4 Yonkers starts but was only able to get his
picture taken once (hit board in the other three) - remains a very solid threat, but the top choice figures to
offer better value. (1) SQUABLE made a break off turn one last week trying to improve his trip from Post 7
- he's gotten steadily better over the course of the year, and has a chance to be close at the finish from this
spot. (4) CHROME PACKAGE is just 1 for 38 lifetime, but has hit board in 19 of those losses - good one
to include underneath. (2) SOUTHERN SWAN MAN raced ok when 2nd in his local debut (for a new
barn) - draws well, and is one of many with a chance here at a piece of this. (5) ORIGINAL SMOKEY was
trapped behind a stopper to 3/4s last week and lost all realistic chance - a quick start puts him in the hunt
for a piece. (7) CHARGING AHEAD has some out of town lines that could make him very competitive
with these, but he goes for a new barn and draws poorly for his local debut - perhaps a check of the tote
board could offer some clues. (8) FUNKY BISCUIT rallied decently in his local debut then was hammered
at the windows for his last - brushed right by a quitter to 3/4s and LOOKED like an easy winner...only to
fall apart once into the stretch - prefer to just watch him from Post 8 this week
RACE 5 - (6) SHEIKH YABOOTY N was very good last week, coming first over (and making up a lot of
ground) into a hot 3rd panel, then still holding very well for the show spot - drops a peg, and gets the nod
despite yet another outside draw. (4) EDGE OF ETERNITY was sharper than the line looks when 3rd two
back, so it was no surprise to see her win easily when dropping down last week - steps back up in class, but
can be a major player again tonight. (2) WALTZWITHSIERRAA added Lasix last week and raced ok from
a no chance spot - drops, moves inside, and does have a chance to pick up her first local victory (for a barn
going very well right now). (3) PETTYCOAT BUSINESS showed little in her last 3 starts but does drop
and get major post relief tonight - chance for a small piece. (5) GOLDEN QUEST N continues to struggle,
and is now 1 for 23 on the year - we'll see if the class drop can help her grab a small share. (7) CORAL
BELLA is racing well now, but this just seems like a brutal spot - prefer others. (1) SEZANAA is off 3
weeks after a sick scratch, and is 0 for 23 on the year - wait for a better scenario. (8) CHECKERED PAST
figures to be too far back to have any real say here
RACE 6 - (2) CREATIVE VENTURE is definitely on the upswing now, and returns from Chester off a
rallying 4th in a pretty quick mile - was a winner here at Yonkers the start before that, and has a solid
chance to pick up another win tonight. (1) CHAPOLIER has more than enough ability to beat these, but he
made back to back breaks here after winning the Excelsior A Final (at VD) for his new barn - if he behaves
himself, he'll have a major chance tonight. (5) FAWN DE TOUCH is another that has ability, but is prone to
miscues - a clean effort can land her a good piece. (8) SHENZI AS added hopples 2 back and rallied for
2nd in NJ, then finished up well here at Yonkers for 3rd - not sure she can reach from out here, but she's
worth at least including in exotics at that 20-1 ML price. (6) PREACHER MAN beat a NW2 field 3 back,
then picked up a pair of 4ths after moving up in class - likely looking at a smaller piece only. (3) HEARTO
FGOLD DEVIE switched barns before her last and was able to win, despite missing a month - definitely
benefited from the trip that night, and will be facing much tougher in here - has to prove she can hang with
these too. (4) BRILLIANT BOB has way more "bad" efforts than "good" ones since arriving here 10 starts
back - sticking with others, but wouldn't be shocked to see him race well. (7) CHERRY RED picks up
pieces on occasion, but seems unlikely to do so from out here.
RACE 7 - (4) RACINE BELL has 11 wins this year but has come up 2nd best in 3 straight starts (clear a
little too late inside last week) - the way the draw shakes out tonight, she should have a decent chance to
pick up win #12, as she preps for a date in the Breeders Crown (on 10/30). (1) NATASHA is having a
terrific year but remains a bit unproven at this top level - she did have good pace once free last week, and
the rail draw could land her in the exotics tonight. (5) JIVE DANCING A has been outstanding for weeks,
and held very well last week after doing all the heavy lifting - if she can find a manageable trip, she can
outrace her odds once again. (7) SIESTA BEACH was a little disappointing last week but still only lost by
about a length - she'll be at the mercy of her trip from out here, but she'll be finishing strong once they turn
for home. (3) TURNTHEFROWNAROUND raced big last week, but also enjoyed a very easy trip - she
MAY be able to hold her own with these top mares too, and we'll find out a bit more tonight. (2) TEMPUS
SEELSTER is now 4 for 4 since arriving from Illinois, jogging each start - she'll be tested for class tonight,
and we'll see how that stellar form holds up against these. (6) LADYBELUCKYTONITE is having an
outstanding 2021 season, but it's pretty absurd that she was forced to draw for the outside tonight - we'll
pass, and wait for her to be back in a more reasonable spot.
RACE 8 - (3) GAB IN MOTION looked super upon arrival from Canada, jogging effortlessly on 10/7 - sat
pocketed to Duchesspedia in his last, but went offstride at the top of the lane right after Marohn popped the
plugs, and never had a chance to take a shot at that big favorite - deserves another chance tonight. (4)
ALTUS HANOVER shipped in with some good looking lines upstate and raced big here as well, rallying
nicely for 3rd behind a couple of nice ones - gets Bartlett at the lines tonight, and should be able to have a
say. (2) DC ANNA was sneaky sharp from too far back 2 and 3 starts back - took plenty of $$ for her last,
got away nicely in the two hole but made an unfortunate break coming to the half - at 15-1 ML, definitely
worth using in exotics. (7) BOOM CITY was a solid front end winner in his local debut, finished 2nd at
Chester in a fast mile, then was 2nd to Duchesspedia here in his last - would probably have picked him
even higher if not for the tough outside draw. (1) SWISS HOUSE ON FIRE was a front end winner 2 and 3
starts back, but those were easier fields than this -certainly figures to be right in the hunt from start to finish
but won't offer any value tonight, and may find a few of these a little too tough. (5) CAVALIER GEORGE
beat this type back on 8/26 but hasn't been as sharp ever since - minor share only. (6) BAZILLIONAIRE
has some good efforts lately, but may be coming from too far back to threaten this week. (8) DIFFIDENT
has done good work here at Yonkers but faces a daunting task from Post 8.
RACE 9 - (5) DRAGONS LUCKY LADY is a 3YO filly taking on solid older mares but she has plenty of
talent and was an excellent 2nd in her Hilltop debut - giving her a confident vote that she can handle this
modest NW15000 field. (6) ANNE BONNEY N will probably be ignored here off that last Fhd. line but
she was off a bad date that day (scr. sick), and probably wasn't close to her best game - she has 6 wins here
over the past 2 years, and could be a live bomb to consider. (8) SANDYS BEACH improved considerably
since the recent barn change, and is being driven every week in a manner she likes - will need plenty of trip
luck to reach from out here, but she's another good priced horse that may be able to find a way onto the
ticket. (4) SOUND IDEA normally does her best work with cheaper but that can be said for most of these -
she's good right now, and is worth using in exotics. (3) ANN HILL has been pretty steady lately - chance
for a piece with the right trip. (2) SCANDALICIOUS benefited from dream trips the last starts and took
away 2 wins - bumps up in class again, and this may slow her down a bit. (1) EYE POPPING reversed
form in a big way with that blowout win over cheaper 3 back, but has been just "ok" since then - has to
move up again tonight, and may find these just a bit out of her range. (7) JUXTA COWGIRL would be
getting a lot longer look in here had she not drawn so far outside.
RACE 10 - Plenty of sharp mares in here! (3) BETTERB CHEVRON N had been razor sharp for weeks
before that no factor try in the Open 2 back...but she bounced right back with another sharp effort last
week, charging home late from an impossible spot to pick up 3rd - can handle a variety of trips, and that
may help her in this very solid field. (5) THE BETHINATOR has been doing good work at the top levels at
a whole variety of racetracks - talented 4YO makes her local debut tonight, and it looks like she can make
some noise even with this solid bunch. (2) LUCKY ARTIST A has been on a good roll as she's climbed
back up the class ladder, and her last pair were sharper than they might look - figures to be ignored in the
wagering here, but does deserve a spot somewhere on your tickets. (4) SPORTS FLIX just went a scary
mile last week, parked every step of the way and somehow still strong late for 2nd - not sure what trip she'll
get tonight, but she can grab a nice piece if it's a good one. (6) ROSE RUN VICTORY is only getting
mentioned here in the 5th slot, and that tells you how sharp this group is - has taken 2 in a row (one at
Chester, one here), but does move up a bit, and draws outside several sharp rivals...would hardly be a
surprise, though. (1) NEVERFORGETWHOUR has been sharp since returning from the layoff, but she
lands in a very tough field, and even drawing the pole doesn't guarantee her a good piece tonight. (8) MAN
DONTFORGET ME is having an outstanding season but wasn't quite as sharp in her last couple, and lands
the worst post tonight. (7) DEMETER N figures to have a hard time getting involved from out here.
RACE 11 - (6) WET MY WHISTLE recovered from an early miscue to go a BIG mile for 2nd in her YR
debut - she should still be a decent price from this spot, and is worth a play (assuming she is). (1) FIRST
GUNNER came up a little short in his last couple but he adds Lasix tonight and that might explain it - may
throw a big one from this spot. (7) CAMDEN HILLS has enjoyed the usual massive improvement that most
new additions to this barn experience - will have his work cut out for him from Post 7, but shouldn't be
overlooked if the price is decent. (5) ETHAN T HANOVER got it done as the favorite 2 back but did get a
late scare from a massive longshot - rallied last for 3rd, but thought maybe he could have been 2nd -
definitely ok for a piece, but looking at others for the top slots. (4) COCKTAILS N DREAMS has been
steady since arriving from PA - another that could take home a piece with the right trip. (2) PIVOTAL
really tired after giving way to Duchesspedia last time and has missed 3 weeks since - wouldn't be a shock
if he showed up ready, but inclined to just watch him this start. (8) BIG BAD SWAN added hopples last
week and was a different horse, absolutely crushing a cheaper field - may be ready to start doing some
damage now, but may also be slowed quite a bit from Post 8. (3) YOU MAKE IT EASY seems to be a bit
overmatched in this solid NW6 field.
RACE 12 - (6) JOSSIE JAMES A went through a bit of a recent rough patch but looked like her better self
last week (when a very strong 2nd best) - may have a tactical edge here over a couple of main foes, and that
makes her the top pick. (7) APRIL AVA was in tough spots in her last 2 starts here and just missed the start
before that - should be able to leave here for a good spot, and that would give her a decent chance to be
right there at the end. (8) MAJOR BATTLE is undeniably sharp, but Buter will be tasked with finding her
some kind of manageable trip from out here - won't be easy! (1) IM VERY SPECIAL has been doing better
work away from Yonkers all year, but she does have a major post advantage over the other main players in
here, and that should at least put her in play for a decent piece of this. (4) CASH ROLL is doing good work
since the recent barn change, and can handle all kinds of trips - definitely facing a tougher overall crew
tonight, but may be sharp enough to bring home a piece of the purse. (2) NORMANS MADELINE has
worked her way back up the class ladder but may find a few of these a little tougher than she can handle
right now - leaning toward others. (5) SHELLIE DE VIE was a little dull last week after a few pretty good
starts - tough call as to which direction she'll be headed tonight. (3) LARJON LEAH has been away for 3
weeks after a series of deteriorating starts