Friday Empire Report

soaofny • July 30, 2021

The Empire Report - Friday, July 30, 2021 - Race Analysis

RACE 1 - (5) NIHILATED TRUTH sharpened in his first 2 starts off the layoff then delivered last week's

blowout victory - he meets nothing scary tonight, and has a good chance to make it 2 in a row. (1) MILITA

RY MASTER A looked very good when 3rd off the layoff on 7/9, but then was scratched sick from his next

- would have been more confident in his chances tonight if not for that scratch (2) NOBLES FINESSE has

picked up small pieces in each of his last 3 starts - draws well, and has a good chance to land another small

share. (3) GRAND PRIORITY is just 1 for 35 over the last 2 years - pretty hard to consider him on top, but

one of his better efforts could at least help him pick up a minor share. (4) CARTERS CAPER rallied well

for 2nd shipping in from Monti 2 back but then failed to fire in last - one of several inconsistent players in

here with a chance for a piece IF they bring their best. (7) BARGAIN SHOPPER has a 2nd and a 3rd from

his last 4 starts but those were from inside posts - not sure he can have the same impact from out here. (6)

ARI ALLSTAR had a good run here last year but has struggled locally for a long time - in need of a wake

up call. (8) WILD WEST draws Post 8 after failing to offer anything in his first try off the claim.


RACE 2 - (5) HILL OF A HORSE weakened a little bit at the end 2 and 3 back after racing much closer to

the pace than he prefers - wisely taken off the gate in last, and he kicked home full of trot for 2nd behind a

very impressive front end winner - should be a fair price here (thanks to #2) and he's definitely worth a play

against these. (2) SPOILED PRINCESS was in a bit too tough in those Miss Versatility events but she's

been very good when she ships over to Yonkers to face more suitable competition - she's the one to beat,

but she figures to be a bit overbet here, and the top choice just seems like a more attractive value play. (4)

BARRY BLACK still doesn't seem to be at his absolute best these days, but he's still more than capable of

handling most/all of the others. (3) FASHION CREDITOR has been racing well, and it was good to see

him pick up his first local win in a long time last week - not sure he can beat the top two, but he's definitely

eligible to grab a good piece. (1) IT AINT THE WHISKY has been solid in his 4 local tries, but vs. much

easier - he'll have to show that he can hang with these tougher ones. (6) HOMER HALL found some better

form when down at lower levels, but he's pretty suspect against these right now, especially from Post 6.


RACE 3 - The new 3&4YO Claiming class: (6) BOURBONS COURAGE has improved significantly

since the purchase/barn change 3 back - there could definitely be a contested pace in front of him here, and

that could set him up for a nice late rally...attractive at that 12-1 ML price. (7) LL MYSTRO hasn't done as

well in Ohio in the NW6 class as he did in NW4, but his form still suggests he'll be a good fit with the

locals - another that could benefit from some hot action up front (and 15-1 ML). (5) BIG SIR has been

facing "real" 25-30K claimers here and picked up a 3rd and 4th in his last pair - might have been our top

choice against these had he not been scratched sick from his first start off the claim...and that 9/5 ML price

also acts as a deterrent! (3) TERRITORY showed little in his 2 local starts but he was stuck racing from

well back, and seems to need to be near the action to perform - goes for a new barn now, and an aggressive

try is expected - we'll see if he can make that work. (4) REPEAL OR REPLACE is another that seems to

need to be on the lead to succeed and he figures to have speed to his inside - may not be a good spot for

him upon arrival from Monti. (1) SUNSETBOOZECRUISE showed potential here at 2 and 3 but his

current upstate form just doesn't seem to be good enough to battle with these - his speed could at least keep

him involved early on, though. (2) MR DS ROCK won 10 races last year but is just 1 for 23 in 2021 - he

also was racing better in Ohio than since he shipped in to YR two starts back.


RACE 4 - (3) WESTERN REDHOT has been ultra consistent for some time at The Swamp, and picks up

Bartlett for his Hilltop debut - we'll take a shot that he can handle the locals (4) DAVIDS COMING HOME

was a bit sharper in NJ a little while back, but was likely also hurt in his last 3 by outside posts - he won 1

of his 2 start here last year, and does seem like a very legit player tonight. (2) SOMWHERENBROOKLYN

N has been doing good work at the lower levels at PcD lately - has plenty of YR experience, and a logical

one to include in exotics. (5) RANSOM DEMAND was desperate for room in the stretch last week and

finished well once finally clear (too late) - good one for the bottom of tris and Supers. (6) ZOEEZ BOY

HENRY just never was able to get involved in his last couple - if Zeron can work out a live cover trip here,

he can show up late for a piece...at a decent price. (1) JUST WAVE GOODBYE threw a total clunker last

week - no way to know if he'll bounce right back tonight, but willing to throw him in for 3rd/4th if the price

is long enough. (7) BLACKTREE will appreciate the drop, but not the draw - may have a tough time from

out here. (8) NORTHERN ROCK did grab a 2nd from Post 8 in his last, but that was vs. much easier - hard

to see him replicating that effort against this field.


RACE 5 - (6) PEMBROKE JOEY is having a strong season so far, currently sporting a 17-5-3-3 record -

he's rock solid in the 15-20s and while Post 6 may leave him with a tougher trip, it'll also make him a better

price - good value play. (2) BEGINNERS LUCK's only 2 recent "bad" lines were when he ended up parked

the mile - assuming that doesn't happen tonight, he should have a big say in the outcome. (1) TODDLER

TANTRUM looked super crushing the 12.5s 4 back, but has only been able to pick up pieces since moving

up to the 20s - good spot tonight, and should be able to grab a good chunk of this. (3) MACHIAVELLI has

2 tighteners under his belt and takes a drop in price - logical spot for him, but won't offer any value on top

at that 8/5 ML price. (5) MAJOR BUCKS is just 1 for 24 this year but was ok finishing last week for his

new barn - throw him in for 3rd. (7) ITSGOODTOBEDAKING shows Scioto lines that would make him a

good fit here, but it's hard to say how he'll respond to the barn change - drawing Post 7 won't help his cause,

either. (4) UNICO LEGEND N has been no factor since returning from the layoff and was scr. sick from his

last. (8) THINDER SOME WHERE seems way too far out to threaten.


RACE 6 - (5) ART HISTORY got the same barn change that propelled More Than Many into orbit that

first start and the result was basically the same for him, going from weekly, long-priced afterthought to

odds-on, blowout winner -- this is a much tougher spot tonight, but the "Dynamic Duo" has been winning at

an absurd 36% clip over the past 2 months, and we'll stay on board at least one more time. (1) PLAY THE

FIELD prefers it in 15s but he's just fine in 20s from a spot like this - should be right there from start to

finish for his new connections. (6) COOL BLUES MAN continues to land in brutal spots and this may be

another - his form is still holding, though, and he's a good bomb for the bottom of exotics. (3) ELRAMA N

has been popular at the claim box despite disappointing way more than he's delivered - good spot to rally

late for a piece. (4) JOJOS PLACE was solid 2nd 2 back but that last win wasn't overly impressive - not

ruling out his chances, but he's certainly not worth that 9/5 ML price. (2) FOREVERNALWAYS shows

break, fold, then scratched sick in his last 3 starts - will need a quick wake up call to be a player tonight. (7)

ROCKABILLY CHARM and (8) HAPPY TRIO are the outsiders - both literally and figuratively.


RACE 7 - (1) GLOBETROTTING always had plenty of talent, earning over $200K at 2 and 3 - 4 YO

season started off with a miscue but she's been terrific in her 3 starts after that, picking up a pair of PcD

wins and a 2nd in a fast mile - should be able to come out on top in her Yonkers debut. (3) CHAMPAGNE

ON ICE, like the top choice, is a talented 4YO mare - grabbed a 3rd in her YR debut last week (to 2

OTHER solid 4YO mares!), and looks like a solid player in here too - we'll see if she can give the top pick

a tussle. (2) HUNTING AS is stepping up in class after a win last week but the good draw is likely to help

him find an easy trip here - can tow along for a small share. (4) JUST MAYBE THE ONE is a tough call -

was doing well after a late May Pocono claim, but seems to have tailed a bit - we'll see if she perks up with

the change of scenery. (6) DRAZZMATAZZ was a solid front end winner 2 back in NW 7500, then right

there 3rd last week in NW10000 - steps up again, but may be sharp enough for a chance at a small piece.

(7) SUMATRA has been doing better things after a slow start to 2021, but lands another bad post and will

likely struggle to get involved. (8) E R SOPHIA ships in sharp and has thrived here in the past - this spot

may be a little too tough for her to overcome, though. (5) HOBBS is still trying to get his 4YO season

untracked - waiting for better signs before considering.


RACE 8 - (3) KANDY SWEET's game is the front end and she still raced pretty well when stuck first over

last week - should be able to blast to the top tonight, and that would make her a very dangerous player. (4)

LADY EAGLE was a sharp brushing winner 2 back, then almost lasted on the front end last week - she's

very good right now, and a threat from either on or off the pace. (5) BULLY BOY lost all chance with an

early miscue last week but he remains a legit threat IF he behaves (and works out a decent trip) - consider if

the price is decent. (1) STINGLIKE A B K is definitely a bit off his best game right now but he does draw

best for sharp connections, & can't be dismissed too easily...will probably be overbet, though. (2) CASINO

CUTIE IT does her best with cheaper, but an easy close up trip could help her take home a piece of this. (6)

MADHATTER BLUECHIP has been uninvolved in his last 3 and draws outside again tonight - a nice

chunk of $$ comes off his card after tonight, so look for him to start improving as he starts dropping. (7) IN

MY DREAMS is as unpredictable as they come from start to start, but this is a brutal spot even if he shows

up on his best game.


RACE 9 - (1) DREAMFAIR CHARRO was stuck in the back of the pack off the claim last week but

definitely had pace, and broke/bobbled searching for stretch clearance - drops, moves all the way inside,

and figures to find himself on the lead tonight - the one to catch and beat. (6) KILLER MARTINI is the "x

factor" tonight - hasn't even been a consideration for the last couple of years, but was purchased for $20K at

the recent sale, and now resides with a training tandem that has performed some major miracles, especially

in recent times - may be a new horse in his 188th career start! (2) VIRGIN STORM hasn't been on his best

game lately and he comes into this off a sick scratch - that being said, he should still be able to beat most of

these! (3) ZACH MAGUIRE A was an ok 4th last week after missing 3 weeks - he's having a rough 2021

so far, but this is a good spot to just tow along for a small share. (4) MACINTOSH N is just 2 for 33 here

over the last 2 years but he's as good/better than many of these, and definitely one that belongs underneath

in exotics. (7) P H KENNY was "ok" 2 and 3 back then a bit disappointing in last - he's stuck outside, and

may not be able to reach tonight. (5) IWONTDOTHATAGAIN hasn't been a factor for a while - a wake up

call is needed! (8) STEADY PULSE has been the "black sheep" of the barn, unable to do much of anything

in weeks - pass from Post 8.


RACE 10 - (1) HEY LIVVY actually set a track record in her qualifier here on 5/21 - was a bruising first

over winner in her first start of the year, then demolished a field by 8 lengths the next week, once again

setting a new track record - made a break on the final turn as the 1/5 choice in last (off a scratch), and the

obvious question is how she possibly could have been included to draw for the inside posts - won't offer

any value, but she certainly remains the one to beat. (4) CHAPTIAMA was super last week, hurt when

HEY LIVVY went offtrside in front of him but able to recover and charge home for 2nd - can't blame

anybody looking to go with him tonight. (3) PATRIARCH HANOVER raced well for 3rd last week,

rebounding from a miscue the week before - very solid performer when he minds his manners. (2) EYE

OFA TIGER AS has finally earned his way back up to the Open on the strength of 2 wins in his last 3 starts

- capable of a good piece if he continues to stay trotting. (6) MELADYS MONET is unfairly assigned Post

6 after basically "stealing" a win last week from the rail (helped by the miscue from HEY LIVVY) - the old

boy will give it his all, but the outside spot will probably hurt his chances quite a bit. (5) MAGICAL

JOURNEY weakened in the pocket last week and just seems less likely tonight than any of the others.


RACE 11 - (3) SECRET BRO must have impressed Mr. Bongiorno when he drove him last week because

he went out and purchased him after that start - he comes into tonight 0 for 20 on the year....but despite this

solid field, he'll be heavily favored to go home at 1 for 21! (1) BIG BOX HANOVER earned nearly a

quarter of a million dollars at 2 and 3 - been doing good work so far as a 4YO (in Ohio), and the guess is

that he'll fit nicely here...very live player. (4) WHIMZICAL CHAPTER landed on a nice trip last week but

was still a very good 3rd - chance for another good piece tonight....but at a much lower price! (5) NEW

HEAVEN has been very good for a while, but faces an unpredictable trip from this spot - certainly should

be included in exotics. (7) TAD KRAZY HANOVER has some pretty sharp tries lately, but figures to

becoming from too far back for more than a small piece. (2) P L KETCHUP comes into this off a break and

a scratch - we'll just watch for now. (6) WHAT CHAPTER broke while sitting in a good spot last week -

draws outside, and figures to be pretty conservative. (8) THE LAST CHAPTER just never looked sharp last

week, and now draws Post 8 - pass for now.



RACE 12 - (4) GHOST DANCE went a big mile last week, rolling a sharp middle half after taking the

lead, then digging in bravely to the wire before getting nipped by Decision Day - gets the narrow nod in a

pretty tough finale. (5) SUGARTOWN should fit nicely moving from $30K claimers to NW7500 after

getting taken last week by a hot barn - expect a sharp effort tonight. (2) TELLITSABB has an outstanding

YR history...but also resurfaces for a new barn, after a couple of hard to gauge starts at Hoosier - may just

crush these...or may not be the same horse we're used to seeing! (1) ROCK N TONY is another tough call -

weakened in a pocket 2 back only to come back in last and charge home to WIN off the same trip - on his

best, can grab a good piece. (3) AMERICAN BOY N was pretty good from an impossible spot last week,

hails from a very hot barn, but just hasn't been good at Yonkers in some time - not sure what to make of

him. (6) MAROMA BEACH was actually pretty good off the claim last week, but consistency has never

been his strong suit - maybe 3rd/4th? (8) HEAVENLY SOUND is pretty good right now but will be coming

from too far back to make any real noise here. (7) BETTING EXCHANGE is unlikely to get close enough

to threaten from out here.

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