The Empire Report - Monday, August 2, 2021 - Race Analysis
RACE 1 - Tough opener! (5) GINGER TREE PETE was claimed after winning two straight at the bottom
claiming level - was bumped up to 20s and came up 2nd best to a (currently) very sharp winner - moves up
another notch after being claimed again last week, but many of the players in here aren't "real" 25s anyway
- should be a good price, and he's definitely sharp. (2) BRACKLEY BEACH had no prayer in his last
couple (8 holes) but moves back to a barn he raced super for 2X recently, and certainly has a chance at a
much better trip tonight...wouldn't expect that 10-1 ML price, though! (4) MARINER SEELSTER does his
best work one level down but as noted, this field really isn't stacked with better ones - not concerned about
the move to lesser known connections, but that 7/5 ML price IS a major turnoff. (6) WAGON MASTER
drops in for a tag after pacing evenly at the back in his YR debut - guessing he'll fit with these, and MAY
be able to have a say with the right trip. (8) RAPTORS FLIGHT N rallied nicely for 2nd in his last 2 starts
but will have a long way to come tonight - maybe a smaller piece? (1) HASH TAG SWAG drops below the
claim price after a pair of clunkers - hard to say if the rail will be enough to help turn his form around. (3)
IN SPADES was a "meh" winner 2 back, then no factor at all in his last - wouldn't really be a surprise, but
definitely leaning to others. (7) MAGRITTE hasn't been good in a LONG time!
RACE 2 - (2) FUNATTHEBEACH N powered home off cover to beat this class last week, making it 3
straight excellent local tries - wouldn't say he's a "cinch" in here, but he's definitely the one to knock off. (6)
MISTER DONALD A actually BEAT the top one 2 back, so his 15-1 ML seems pretty absurd - was driven
super aggressively in last and the gamble didn't pay off, but he gets a pass for that - remains a dangerous
rival. (1) BRONX SEELSTER was right there with 2 sharp ones last after an easy 2 hole trip - looking at
another excellent trip tonight and figures to be right there once again....but that 8/5 ML price makes him
hard to consider for the top slot. (3) AMERICAN ADMIRAL raced ok from a no prayer spot in last - hard
to say if he's as good as the top ones, but he'll be a decent price and is a good one to include in exotics. (7)
LUCIANO N has held his form for months, even after rising to these top levels - he lands his first bad draw
in a while, though, and that could slow him down tonight. (4) KERFORD ROAD A generally does his best
work with a bit cheaper - probably looking at a lesser piece this week. (5) AINTNOBETTOR A is another
that seems more comfortable at lower levels - hasn't really proven that he can hang with the type...at least
so far.
RACE 3 - (3) DESIRES CAPTAIN was an afterthought in lower classes out in Ohio - he shipped east to
join forces with the Super Siblings and while it did take them a couple of starts to figure how to make this
guy click, he comes into this off a pair of front end blowouts with a combined 14+ length margin of victory
- he'll face much tougher now, but when a team is winning at an unheard of 40% clip, it's not a bad idea to
stick with them! And speaking of scary winning percentages, (4) ROUGH ODDS hails from a barn that has
scored at an amazing 36% rate since June 1st (it was higher, but a few recent 2nd place finishes dropped it
down a bit) - he tasted defeated for these connections for the first time last week after winning 5 straight
prior to that...and he'll every shot to start a new streak tonight. (5) TIME OUT IM TIRED couldn't quite last
on the front end last week after a few good off the pace tries - if the top pair end up battling each other early
on, there's a chance this guy could pick up the pieces late...at a decent price. (7) TOPVILLE OLYMPI AN
was claimed after a pair of sharp rallying tries at this level - he'll need a lot of trip luck from out here, but
he's another that would benefit greatly from a hotly contested pace. (1) OZONE BLUE CHIP was taken
from his last by crafty connections, and does have speed from the pole....not sure he's up for beating the top
ones, though. (2) KINGSTONS BAD BOY's only local win was vs. the 20s, and he really may be pushing
it up here in 30s - draws well enough for a shot at a piece, though. (6) MY DELIGHT couldn't sustain his
bid last week and may need to be in a little cheaper to show his best stuff - tough draw for his new barn. (8)
PEPPER GUY wasn't bad at all off a long layoff but he'll probably need a better draw to be a player.
RACE 4 - Good race! (1) RECORD YEAR doesn't have a lot of recent wins (he has 7 on the year) but he's
remained sharp despite some bad trips/spots - he bumps up a level off the claim but he certainly seems
sharp enough to handle it - one of several with a chance to take this wide open affair. (2) IAMMRBRIGHT
SIDE N has 3 wins in his last 4 starts...and all for different trainers! Moves to yet another new barn for
tonight but he doesn't seem to mind changes of scenery - major threat. (4) REAL LUCKY N is one of a few
horses that his owner (who has a large barn of his own) has entrusted to somebody else to train...and he's
been reaping the rewards from this arrangement -- finished 2nd to #2 last week, but will have every chance
to reverse that decision tonight. (3) TOWNLINE FLIGHT was in a very tough field last week and almost
seemed to just concede from the start - good sign that he's right back in the box, and he'll definitely be a
good price if you want to gamble on him bouncing back immediately. (6) CHANGE STRIDE N has been
very sharp for a long time but he's only 1 for 16 on the year (9X 2nd or 3rd), and he's stuck outside while
moving up in class - using underneath only. (5) SOUTHWIND ONYX took a while to find his stride last
week but was going ok late - may be a little too cheap for these, however. (7) PACING MAJOR N won his
last 2 starts of 2020 then went on the shelf until qualifying back in late May - re-qualified 7 weeks later,
and we'll just watch, for now. (8) PROVOCATIVEPRINCE N needs the lead to be effective and seems
unlikely he'll be getting it from this spot
RACE 5 - (5) OUR MAX PHACTOR N is a solid NW15000 player so tonight's drop should make him
very dangerous...and he may even offer a decent price, thanks to the presence of the rail horse. (1) ALOTB
ETTOR N was reunited with the Super Siblings on 7/7 and to the surprise of few, is 2 for 2 since then - he's
facing a tougher bunch tonight, but the rail draw should ensure that he's either on top or in the pocket, and
he's a serious threat to make it 3 in a row either way. (2) CLAYTONS BETTOR N was a bit disappointing
when he got collared as the 3/5 choice in his last here - lands in a good spot to just follow closely, and take
home a nice piece. Both (7) MOHAWK WARRIOR and (8) SANTAFES COACH drop down to a better
level, but both land outside and neither really leaves the gate well - maybe one of them can trip out and
grab a small piece? (3) ALEPPO HANOVER had been racing well before landing Post 8 up in class last
week - he never wins, but he does grab some pieces when he gets a decent trip. (4) DANCIN DRAGON
drops, but hasn't been sharp at all - waiting for better signs before considering. (6) SOUTHWIND MOROC
CAN is another getting some class relief, but he could really use another drop (or two).
RACE 6 - (6) ELVER HANOVER has been keeping some pretty good company out of town, and came up
3rd best behind a pair of VERY nice horses in his Hilltop debut (in a fast mile) - not a great post tonight,
but Brennan should still be able to find away to beat these. (2) PEACE OUT POSSE has been very sharp
for a long time...so it's ironic that he's one of the only horses in the barn right now NOT grabbing wins in
bunches - the main danger, especially with his post advantage. (3) BRANQUINHO had an abbreviated 12
start season at 4 but is making up for lost time as a 5YO, coming into this riding a 3 race win streak - he's
yet to prove that he can hang with the likes of the top two...but we'll find out for sure tonight. (1) SILAS
SEELSTER is having a tough 1 for 18 season but he can certainly follow along well from a spot like this -
ok for 3rd/4th. (7) NVESTMENT BLUECHIP seems unlikely to be able to find a way into the mix from all
the way out here but he's definitely very sharp right now, and not a bad bomb for the bottom of exotics. (5)
IDEAL ARTILLERY looked like he had a solid chance last week so that 8-1 payoff was quite an overlay -
he'll be facing much tougher tonight, though, and looking at a smaller piece, for sure. (4) MISTER SPOT A
was a winner two back in his return to a previous barn but he was all out to beat a rival that was out the
entire mile - tired in his last, and seems like a bit of an outsider here. (8) EPIC ACE moves up and lands
Post 8...not a recipe for success.
RACE 7 - (6) DRAGON SAID finally tasted defeat last week for this first time in his storybook year, but
he certainly raced as well (if not better), than in any of his 8 straight victories - he should be able to
improve a bit at the start here, and he'll be a handful if anywhere close when they turn for home (and if the
barn is having a big night prior to this race, you can back him with even more confidence). (4) SHOOBEE
DOO A was sent off at 15 cents on the dollar in his local debut and did not disappoint, effortlessly wiring a
bit easier - he's in razor sharp form, has a post edge on his main rivals, and we'll see if he can parlay that
into another victory. (8) ROCKAPELO was pretty dull in his first two starts back off the freshening but
reversed form on a dime with that win here on 7/19, then almost upset mega-talented stablemate This Is
The Plan in the Gerrity (at Stga.) - clearly he's SHARP enough to beat these, but the outside draw may very
well compromise his chances - don't take a short price if using him on top. (7) RAUKAPUKA RULER N
raced very conservatively last week after getting parked the week before - he certainly wasn't bad, and
would have a chance here IF Stratton takes a shot on sending him out of there - if you think he might, the
price will certainly be quite juicy! (2) BUDDY HILL has undergone a major transformation since joining
his current barn, earning his way all the way up to the Open...and as sharp as he is right now, he may even
be able to pick up a small piece. (3) SAN DOMINO A is feeling pretty good right now, but is also moving
up in class - may have a harder time getting those same good results with these. (5) SIMPLE KINDA MAN
brought that razor sharp Stga. form here to Yonkers, rallying nicely for 2nd two back at 29-1 - returns off
another sharp upstate score, and we'll see if he can rally his way to another piece tonight. (1) SHNEONUC
RZYDIAMND A generally needs to be in a bit cheaper, but maybe the rail can help him pick up a minor
share (will need some trip luck, though).
RACE 8 - Tough race! (8) ROBBIE BURNS N was sent off at 2/5 for his local debut and made it a
winning one, scoring in wire to wire fashion - steps up off the claim and lands Post 8 but there's not a ton of
speed to his inside and he should be able to at least improve at the start, if not hit the top - assuming he's a
fair price, he's definitely one to use. (3) REVELRY needed his start 2 back off the sick scratch, then was
too far back in last to do any damage - drops, moves inside, and he beat better here on 6/14 -- very possible.
(4) TONY TOO TALL gave it a shot from Post 8 last week but was needlessly parked by the leader and lost
any chance - he's proven that he fits here, and might have been picked on top if his trainer wasn't still
winless at Yonkers in 2021. (1) LINCOLNJAMES might have tired last week from racing off a bad date
(sick scr.) but he also might have shut off his air when running over the leader to 3/4s - either way, eligible
for a much better try tonight. (6) SPORTSKEEPER has been very good for some time - threw a dud 2 back,
and that's why he paid $20 when he beat these last week - tough spot, but certainly possible with the right
trip. (5) YANKEE OSBORNE was lagging much of the way last week but did rally late when the leaders
started to tire - maybe can grab a minor share? (2) GLENGARRY KNIGHT N hasn't been a factor is his 4
local tries - needs to find more. (7) GUMPTION figures to be too far back to have any say
RACE 9 - (3) BARBADOS is just scary-sharp right now, taking 3 in a row thanks to his powerful stretch
rallies - if he's close turning for home, he's going to be a handful once again. (4) UPTOWN FUNK drops
out of the Open ranks and back down into a more suitable claiming class - he figures to perk up quickly,
and can be a very legitimate threat tonight. (2) SOHO LEVIATHAN A has been sharp for a long time, and
rock solid every week in this class - he has a chance to win any time he's entered, and tonight is no
exception. (8) TOWNLINE ALL GOOD was a wire to wire winner on 5/18 but always a bit too far back in
every start since then...unfortunately, he's probably going to be stuck in that same boat tonight from Post 8.
(5) KEYSTONE PHOENIX moves to a new barn this week but his current form is really lacking - will
need a major wake up call to be a player. (7) PERFECTLY CLOSE is a hard knocker but he's more of a
"grinder", and generally struggles when drawn so far outside (especially at this level). (1) HUNDIE N
seems ambitiously placed at this level, and he hasn't raced since 6/18 - sticking with others. (6) YANKEE
BOOTS was a winner here on 7/5 when "first time Super Siblings" but hasn't performed in his 2 starts since
being claimed - waiting to see some life before hopping back on board.
RACE 10 - (2) CAVIART LUCA appeared to be slipping last year but the 10YO is putting together a
strong 2021 season, already picking up 6 wins (4 more than all of last year) - he's shown that he can go to
the top and make it last at this level, and that's what he'll be looking to do tonight. (3) TIN ROOF RAIDER
may be able to leave well enough to grab a pocket trip here...and that would give him a chance to take
home a nice piece of this. (6) OAKWOODINITOWINIT IR moves from one top barn to another via the
recent purchase - finished 2nd in his only local start, and may use his speed to grab good position here -
include underneath. (8) GALANTE A drops to a level where he can definitely do some damage, but he's
also stuck all the way outside - maybe the tote board will offer some clues to his intentions? (1) BILL
HALEY N is on the cheaper side, but also pretty sharp right now - if Buter can get him away to a decent
start, he'll have a chance to land somewhere on the ticket. (4) GLOBALDOMINATION N is climbing back
up the class ladder with a series of good recent efforts - not sure if he can use his late kick for a piece of
this, but we'll find out tonight. (5) EHRMANTROUT just hasn't seemed as sharp recently - may perk up,
but too many others just seem better right now. (7) BENHOPE RULZ N is racing very well for a hot barn
but he moves up once again and is stuck outside - may need to wait for a better spot.
RACE 11 - Tough race! (3) ITALIAN DELIGHT N has really been thriving (as have all his stablemates) -
he may be overlooked here vs. some "higher profile" rivals, but his form has been terrific, and he'll be a
decent price - one of several possibilities here. (6) MAJOR BETTS flashed plenty of ability at 2 and 3 so it
was really no surprise to see him immediately take to the magic touch of the Dynamic Duo, and pick up
wins in his first two starts for the barn - may very well stretch that streak to 3. (4) FUNKNWAFFLES threw
a dud 2 back but bounced right back in last, finishing right behind #6 - similar effort could put him right
there once more. (5) BETTOR MEMORIES is hardly the most reliable performer but he does manage to
grab his wins every season - his best effort would make him a threat tonight. (2) KEEP ON ROCKING A
sports a 13-6-3-3 record at Yonkers over the past 2 seasons and that makes it hard to ever ignore his
chances - just another possibility in a race filled with them. (7) MICKY GEE N hasn't been "bad", but he
also hasn't looked sharp enough to think that he can sit last and just sweep these (like in the "old days") -
waiting for a better spot. (1) WINDSUN RICKY is being picked last, but he's gone plenty of big miles
here, and really can't be ruled out for at least a piece.
RACE 12 - (1) NONE BETTOR A is hitting on all cylinders right now and his barn seems to be getting hot
again - he has more than enough back class to handle the jump to NW30000, and he'll likely be a much
better price than his main rival - worth a play in the finale. (2) ROLLWITHPAPAJOE drops down to a spot
where he would normally be a complete stickout...but he does catch a very worthy rival to his inside, and
his last effort wasn't his best (little shaky at the start, not quite enough pop at the end) - of course it's
possible that he'll just crush these, and possibly cap the barn's biggest single night at The Hilltop! (5)
TOOKADIVEOFFDIPPER is very good right now, handles any trip, and is definitely one to include
underneath in exotics. (4) ESCAPETOTHEBEACH sat the cones and wasn't a factor last week but he's
gone too many good miles lately to not include on the bottom of tris and Supers. (3) MACS JACKPOT
was unable to build off his win 2 back, regressing in his last instead - consider for a minor piece only. (7)
WALKINSHAW N is very good right now but moves way outside - not sure he'll be able to get a sniff from
this spot. (8) BETTOR THAN SPRING has been sharp for a while, but faces an uphill battle from Post 8
(up in class). (6) KEY ADVISOR was in the right place to score the big upset last week but that seems
unlikely to happen tonight.