Monday Empire Report

soaofny • March 14, 2022

The Empire Report - Monday, March 14, 2022 - Race Analysis

RACE 1 - In a race where EVERY horse is dropping in class....(1) PICARD A moves all the way inside

from Post 8 to the rail, and seems destined for a pretty good trip in here - his new "owner/trainer-trainer"

combination has been winning races both here and upstate, and may be able to grab another in tonight's

opener. (2) MAJOR BETTS is absolutely the one to beat, but he also figures to be significantly overbet -

he's only won 1 of 14 local starts over the past 2 years, and may be a bit vulnerable - very logical threat, but

won't be offering any wagering value. (3) KERFORD ROAD A fits very nicely with these, draws well, but

really should have been able to win 2 starts back (ending up 3rd, instead) - legitimate threat, but insist on a

fair price if using on top. (4) REDBANK BLAZE A was a front end winner here on 1/10, but his form has

tailed a bit since then - a live trip could put him in the mix from this spot. (5) SILAS SEELSTER has been

quiet so far in 2022, but facing tougher - if things get testy up front, his chances would go up considerably.

(8) MICKY GEE N has been disappointing in most of his recent starts, but did finish a bit better last week -

may be on the upswing, but will have to pass 'em all from this tough spot. (6) SHINEONUCRZYDIAMND

A is very in and out, but even his best would probably leave him short from out here. (7) EDDARD HANO

VER is 0 for 14 at YR (last 3 years), not all that sharp, and draws Post 7 - prefer others.


RACE 2 - (1) GINGER TREE PETE went a weird mile last week, seeming empty for the longest time

before finally finding his gear into the stretch, and rallying hard to be a close 3rd - Dunn knows him a little

better now, and this is definitely a potential winning spot if he brings anything close to his typical effort. (6)

ROBBIE BURNS N raced well from OFF the pace the last 2 starts, grabbing a close 2nd and 3rd - seems

like a good spot for Stratton to at least look to leave with him, and a good trip would put him right there at

the wire. (7) BELTANE A has been 1st or 2nd in 4 of his last 5 starts, with a miscue over a horrible surface

in the other - he was quickly reclaimed by his previous connections last week, and looms a serious threat,

despite the poor draw. (3) CHANGE STRIDE N saw his 4 race win streak snapped upon moving up to this

level last time, but he still finished well - not impossible. (4) LACHIE MAGUIRE N was no factor in his 2

local tries this year, but he did win 3 of 9 starts here last season - decent value horse to at least consider. (2)

REGAL SON went a bunch of very sharp efforts before landing Post 8 two back, then being scratched sick

from his last - may not be 100% for tonight, and that might leave him a little short. (5) ROLLING WITH

SAM drops a notch from the 75s, but may actually need to be in even a bit easier to be a serious threat. (8)

CRUZING HILL was unable to overcome similar spots the last 2 starts at this level - wait for a better draw.


RACE 3 - (2) ELWELL has been on a tear for what seems like an eternity - came up just a little short in 3

tries at the $100K level (despite a couple of tough trips!), but the drop back down to 75s may be just what

he needs to get back to the winner's circle. (5) PATRIOT NATION raced very well in his last 2 tries in for

this claiming tag - had no prayer in last week's 1:51.4 mile (against Western Joe, etc.), but should perk right

back up tonight - possibility. (1) LYONS KING got the job done (barely) against these 3 back, came up a

little short in his next, and now returns from The Swamp after being no threat in his last - hard to ignore

from this spot, but he certainly won't be offering any value. (6) PRINCE MCARDLE N still hasn't beaten

this class, but he's definitely proven that he belongs - will need some major trip luck from this spot, but he's

definitely not a bad bomb to consider. (4) AIR FORCE HANOVER has been very consistent so far in 2022

and has held his form up through the classes - an easy enough trip gives him a fighting chance here. (3)

MIGHTY SANTANA N was a decent first over 3rd in his first try up at this level but he was never able to

beat the 50s, and he'd be hard to use on top against these. (8) MACH DORO A lands all the way outside in

a very solid field - wait for a better spot to consider. (7) IM SOME GRADUATE was up the track at 33-1

from a similar spot last week - hard to recommend.


RACE 4 - (4) ON ACCIDENT raced well here twice in this class recently (and his 2nd place finish was

upgraded to a win, when the 1st place finisher was disqualified for a medication violation) - we'll give him

the narrow edge to cross the finish line first this time. (2) REIGNING DEO has always had the ability, but

has WON far fewer races than he probably could have - recent barn change also brings with it a new pilot...

we'll see if that's enough to get him to the winner's circle. (3) SPRINGSTEEN is somewhat of an enigma -

he's almost always "figures", but seems to disappoint more often than he delivers - always dangerous, but

also overbet in most instances. (1) MCCLINCHIE N gave it a solid front end try last week only to come up

2nd best to the sharp winner - should be a solid player once more from this spot, but seems more likely to

take home another smaller prize. (5) WEONA SIZZLER A was a nice trip winner vs. cheaper last week,

and may be building some confidence back - ok to include underneath in exotics. (8) CAN B PERFECT

would normally be a big threat down at this level, but he draws Post 8 after missing 3 months, and may not

be primed for a top effort just yet. (6) SHINY BLACK BEAMER used a nice trip to pick up a 3rd vs.

cheaper last week, but figures to struggle a bit up in class, from Post 6. (7) GHOST DANCE returns after 3

months and draws poorly for an ice cold barn - just observing, for now.


RACE 5 - (3) THINKBIG DREAMBIG was off a month to his last start, and landed in a tough spot, in a

fast mile - drops right back in the box, moves inside, and gets Kakaley on board this week (who bails off

one of his regular drives, to handle this guy) - guessing we'll see a big effort tonight. (2) ITSMYCHECK

GB had a short rough patch but has been back on his game the past 2 starts (a win and a 2nd) - should be

able to work out a very nice trip from this spot, and looms a very live player. (8) ST LADS BEAT IT is the

"x factor" - he's raced here 4 times, with a pair of VERY impressive wins, and a pair of 8 holes where he

didn't even pretend to be interested - was ready to write him off this weeks when he drew outside again,

then noticed that Bartlett was on board for both (smashing) wins, and is back in the bike tonight - maybe

he'll try to put him in play, at a price? (6) MACHEASY A looked good beating a NW20000 field 6 starts

back - been in tough ever since, but tonight's class drop could perk him up significantly - needs some action

up front to give him a chance, though. (5) THE WILD CARD has been steady lately, though unable to grab

any wins - remains a legitimate contender, but look for a decent price if trying him on top. (4) GRIFFON

HANOVER picked up a rare Yonkers win 2 back, but vs. softer - always a chance for a piece, but leaning

towards others for the top slots. (1) FINE DIAMOND makes his return after 3 months off and this is a good

week to just observe. (7) IDEAL ARTILLERY figures to have a hard time getting in play from out here.


RACE 6 - (1) DINA BOLT was claimed here on 11/22 by the Dynamic Duo and promptly crushed this

class the next week - took a month off and resurfaced at The Swamp, where he raced well for 4 starts

(including a couple of wins) - returned to Yonkers last week and was able to beat this class again, shaking

off heavy pressure before scoring the victory - very short price here, but clearly the one to knock off. (2) I

GET THAT rallied for 3rd in both starts since bumping up to this level - the good draw should allow him to

get away reasonably close...and have a shot to rally late for another big chunk. (6) MY MIND IS MADEUP

is just 1 for 33 locally over the past 3 years, but that didn't deter this very successful young conditioner

from shelling out $30K of her own money to claim him last week - she's improved horses dramatically in

the past - can this guy become another success story? (7) JOJOS PLACE came up horrible when claimed

on 2/21 but it took no time at all for his new (high %) barn to fix the issue, as he jogged last week as the 6/5

choice - won't be easy to repeat from out here...but it's not impossible, either. (3) MOONLIGHT SHADOW

has been very sharp, but facing age-restricted $30K claimers - moves up to face "open" 40s tonight, and

we'll see how well his form holds up against these. (5) MARK WITHA K weakened in the stretch on 2/21

vs. the 50s - dropped down to 40s for his next start, and made a break...may be heading in the wrong

direction right now, but suppose we'll learn more after tonight. (4) ROCKIN JUKEBOX is another that was

thriving vs. 3-5YO 30s - he was an even 4th trying these last week (off the claim) and the jury is still out as

to whether he fits with these too. (8) SHERIFF N went on the shelf for 9 months, and hasn't shown that he's

back to form in his couple of NJ efforts - pass for now.


RACE 7 - (6) REVELRY was SO impressive winning off the claim on 2/21 that he was actually sent off

FAVORED against WESTERN JOE the next week (that's how much respect his incredible barn gets!) - he

raced his eyeballs out first over into the :55.1 final half, but had to settle 2nd for 2nd best to the easier trip

winner - he'll be a much better price tonight, and could be worth a shot in this tough race. (8) WESTERN

JOE shipped in last week off a pair of out of town blowouts and showed just how sharp he is with that

1:51.4 front end score (over the top choice) - the concern tonight is that he now has Post 8, and the Borgata

series starts next week - hard to say how aggressively he'll be handled. (3) OSTRO HANOVER is another

Borgata eligible - he had a rough (overall) 2021 season, but seems to be thriving since claimed for $100K

by the Super Siblings - good NJ tightener last week may have him ready to do some damage now. And you

can add (2) BRAEVIEW BONDI A to the list of Borgata eligibles in here - been struggling a bit in the

Open the past 3 weeks, but can definitely make his presence felt from this spot tonight. (1) ROCKAPELO

is an "all or nothing" streaky horse who seems to be coming around now - always a threat on his best effort,

so give him a look if the price is right. (5) ESCAPETOTHEBEACH has been very solid lately, but this field

is much tougher (overall) than the ones he's been facing - may be looking at only a minor piece tonight. (7)

ROCKATHON enjoyed an uncontested lead last week as he wired cheaper - unlikely to replicate that kind

of mile against these, however. (4) ITALIAN DELIGHT N is off a sick scratch, and catches a VERY tough

NW20000 field - pass this week.


RACE 8 - (3) JOESSTAR OF MIAA was a winner in this class the last 2 weeks, and has won 7 of 18 here

over the last 2 years - he figures to control the action from this spot, and has a solid chance to extend his

streak to 3. (2) LOUS SWEETREVENGE was too far back (8 hole) to have any impact last week, but he'd

been pacing BIG final halves for weeks prior to that, picking up big slices from seemingly impossible spots

- moves inside, gets Brennan on board, and could pose a serious threat to the top choice. (6) ALL HANDS

ON DECK's incredible turnaround from lower level Chester afterthought (prior to the barn change) to his

current status can easily be overlooked when in the same barn as DRAGON SAID (whose own

transformation almost defies belief) - raced super for 2nd last week (helped by a very nice drive), and can

grab a good piece tonight, too. (5) WALKINSHAW N's racing style leaves him prone to tough trips, but

he's almost always finishing well late, and even beat this class a couple of times - decent value horse for

exotics. (1) RUNRUNJIMYDUNN N is clearly hitting on all cylinders right now, and should be feeling

pretty good about himself after a pair of easy front end scores - steps up to face tougher, however, and will

have to prove that he can be as effective with this type. (8) ENVIRONS HANOVER lost all chance when

forced wide to the half last week, and was very hard used the week before that - he's much sharper than his

lines might suggest, but he also figures to be limited by the draw tonight. (4) FOREVER FAV was on a

VERY long form spree before that sick scratch on 2/7...and hasn't been able to get back to that form since

then - waiting for some better signs. (7) ALEX TYE had 4 wins and a 2nd from his first 6 starts this year

but MAY be showing some signs of wear and tear - draws poorly tonight, and we'll stick with others.


RACE 9 - (3) DRAGON SAID certainly appreciated the time off and has looked super in his 2 starts since

returning - makes his final prep before the Borgata (Levy) Series and he remains the one to knock off - he's

already gone from "bottom level Freehold toss" to "Open star" since joining this talented training tandem

last year....will be fun to see if he can REALLY complete the Cinderella Story by actually winning the

upcoming series! (2) FUNATTHEBEACH N sharpened with a pair of easy front end wins over softer then

was a solid 3rd last week right behind a couple of very nice rivals - tonight's good draw should help him

pick up another big piece. (7) RED RIGHT HAND acted like he was destined to become a legitimate Open

pacer while winning his first 5 local starts over lesser...and his last 3 starts (now at this top level) confirmed

that he really is this good - not sure if he'll struggle a bit from this tough post, but don't leave out of your

exotics. (4) SPEED MAN N has held his form beautifully for weeks - not sure if they finally take him off

the gate this week, but he can be very effective from OFF the pace too, when sharp - include in exotics. (1)

SEMI TOUGH makes his final start before the Series but he's been off for 3 weeks, and may be handled

conservatively tonight - he did rally to win in this class 2 back, so he can never be counted out too quickly.

(5) TYGA HANOVER tends to struggle at this level and probably will tonight as well - will look to save

ground, and hope for a minor award. (6) BUDDY HILL really improved significantly after joining this barn

last season, and was holding his own at this top level before taking some time off from mid-December -

may need a start or two before we see his best, though. (8) CASUAL COOL has been sharp for weeks, but

gets the "double whammy" of a class hike AND Post 8 tonight.


RACE 10 - (1) VENIER HANOVER was moved by his owner from one of his trainers to another after that

1/31 sick scratch....and he instantly went from non-functional, to unbeatable - was finally claimed after

winning 3 in a row but it's unlikely that'll matter - will be the prohibitive choice to make it 4 in a row

tonight. (2) ROCK THE NITE has a few decent tries lately - he's looking at a nice trip from this spot, and

may be able to tow along well enough for a board spot. (5) DESIRES CAPTAIN has been pretty consistent

lately, and his barn has been pretty solid lately - another to use in exotics. (3) ITSGOODTOBEDAKING

was one of the few horses in this barn NOT thriving in recent starts - capable of being a player if he can

find his "A Game" tonight, but he's a bit unattractive at that 3-1 ML price. (4) SOUTHWIND ONYX can

be forgiven for his last (7 hole off a bad date), but it's still iffy as to whether he really fits that well in 30s -

maybe a small piece? (7) AVATAR J just got off to a horrid start last week, and was too far back when he

finally found some life - unfortunately, tonight's draw will probably have him pretty far back again. (8)

HAPPY TRIO went some big miles here in 2021 but it really looks like he needs a better post, in a cheaper

class. (6) STARK HANOVER is another seemingly in need of both post and class relief.


RACE 11 - (2) JIMS PERFECT TEN has been very good since being claimed on 2/7 - he finished 2nd to a

"fresh claim" winner despite a first over trip in his first try, got unlucky and hooked wheels with a tiring

leader the next start, then finished with good pace (for 4th) from an impossible spot in his last - should offer

a good price here, and he's worth a stab. (1) NEXT BIG THING just reversed form out of the blue when he

beat the 15s on 2/18, and he's been razor sharp in the 2 tries since them - jumping up to 40s seems like an

ambitious move tonight, but he just may be sharp enough to pull it off. (5) SHOREVIEW gets a pass for his

first start off the claim (parked from the 8 hole), but he absolutely flew home to win his last (:27.3 final

quarter), all the more shocking because he's certainly not known for his strong finishes - his trainer gets

such enormous respect he was sent off at 2-1 last week (after being much longer in all his prior starts), and

he has to be respected tonight, despite bumping up in class. (4) YANKEE ROLLER A has been a hard

horse to predict from start to start - if he brings his best tonight, he'll certainly have a chance to make some

noise here...but that's a big IF. (6) SWEET N FAST has been invisible in both starts since the recent claim,

but he did have Post 8 each time - gets SOME post relief here, so we'll see if he can be a bigger part of the

action. (3) BOLT OF LUCK is listed at 3-1 ML but he's moving up in class, and hasn't raced since 2/18

(sick scratch) - no value in this spot. (7) ORILIIA JOE has some better form lately, but it still seems like a

stretch dropping the veteran in for a $40K tag. (8) KEYSTONE NOLAN was reclaimed by a barn that saw

him make a break in the only start he had with them - will just watch, for now.


RACE 12 - (1) WESTERN HILL just seems to be a different horse on the front end, and we were certainly

reminded of that last week - he bumps up in class to face tougher here but if he's as sharp as he was last

start, he has a chance to beat these too. (4) OUR CORELLI N looked super in his first couple of starts after

being claimed on 1/17 for $50K - wasn't able to be as effective when elevated to the 100s, then faltered a

bit last week dropping to the 75s - finds himself back in 50s for tonight, and it's reasonable to expect we'll

see a sharper try. (7) TONY TOO TALL is rock solid in this class, but spots his main rivals a significant

post advantage - if Siegelman can manufacture a decent trip from out here, he'll have a chance to be around

at the wire - at a decent price. (5) BALLERAT BOOMERANG raced big off the claim last week, finishing

2nd to the top choice despite a tough first over trip - he also moves up in class, but still seems very playable

in exotics. (3) MAGRITTE has always been a streaky horse, but his recent 8 race win streak was amazing

even for him - has definitely shown some clear signs of wear and tear in his last few starts, and it's hard to

say if he'll rebound here, or continue to tail a bit more. (2) MACINTOSH N isn't embarrassing himself in

50s but it's also clear that he could use some class relief - maybe he can tow along for a minor share thanks

to the inside draw? (8) AMERICAN BOY N can definitely be a threat at this level but may not be a major

threat for tonight (Post 8, off a sick scratch and qualifier). (6) BETTOR BE OSCAR A makes his local

debut, and his out of town lines suggest he may be a little too ambitiously placed - we shall see.

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