The Empire Report - Thursday, November 18, 2021 - Race Analysis
RACE 1 - (5) BARKEEPER was handled conservatively last week (after a miscue the week before) but
still rallied late to be right there 2nd - should be more involved tonight with Buter, and this is probably a
field he can beat...with a decent trip. (3) MNEMONIC struggled a bit on the final turn last week and had to
settle for 2nd best after doing better once into the homestretch - maybe she can be sharper in her 2nd try
around the Hilltop Oval? (4) SQUABLE was way overbet last week and was just an "ok" 3rd - he figures to
be overbet again tonight, and he's hard to consider on top (at a short price) with his 21-1-0-3 local slate. (7)
JESSIES OUTLAWED hit board in all 5 local starts but has just one win - outside draw figures to see him
rallying from too far back for more than just a piece. (2) SV ROYAL FLUSH was in the right place at the
right time last week, sitting the pocket when the leader just caved late, going by him in the :30.3 final
quarter to score the upset - he'll likely need to be sharper if he hopes to repeat. (8) CHROME PACKAGE
fits well enough with these, but he's 1 for 42 and gets stuck with another terrible post. (1) TRIUMPHUS
draws best, but he'll need to be much better just to contend for a piece. (6) SEARCHING FOR YOU had
good seasons in Iowa at 2 and 3, but has struggled since shipping East.
RACE 2 - (4) ELLAGATOR grabbed 3 wins and a 2nd before landing in a no-chance spot last week (but
still raced well) - this shapes up as a potential 2 horse battle...and we'll give her the narrow edge. (5) MAN
DONTFORGET ME got caught behind a quitting leader last week and lost all chance - she's had a terrific
season, and drops tonight to a level where she's ultra-dangerous - the main danger! (2) PONDER THE
ODDS has been tightening the last 2 weeks after a layoff - good spot to follow closely tonight, and grab a
decent piece. (3) IM VERY SPECIAL has raced better away from Yonkers much of this year, but she was
pretty good last week (when 3rd) - definitely one to include underneath . (6) SOUND IDEA was hurt by the
outside draw last week and is in the same boat tonight - prefer to wait for a better spot. (7) MILIEU HANO
VER has ability but she's a 3YO facing older mares, and also has to deal with the outside draw - not sure
she'll be able to get into play tonight. (8) PRECIOUS ALEXIS draws outside upon arrival from Delaware -
she'll look better next week with a class drop...and hopefully much better post
RACE 3 - (3) DROP THE MIC has really developed rapidly since getting brave with a couple of Sept.
Monti wins - his last was much better than it looks, and the move inside will allow Siegelman to have him
in play this week - the one to beat. (5) PREACHER MAN was ambitiously placed in those $50K claimers
but drops back down tonight to the level where he was doing good work recently - should have a big say
here. (4) TITANS HOPE struggled up in Canada in 3 starts after the NYSS season ended, and has been
away for nearly a month - she does return to her favorite barn, however, and may be ready despite the time
off - use in exotics as long as the price is fair. (8) OPERATION SHIPLEY has been consistent since
arriving from Iowa, compiling a 5-2-2-1 record - he steps up AND draws Post 8 tonight, so he's likely
looking at a smaller piece - will all boil down to the trip. (2) EXCHEQUER benefited from the trip last
week but still raced decently for 3rd - might be able to grab a minor share with a similar journey. (6)
YUCATAN PARTY MAN was a good 2nd last week but was helped by the rail, and a pocket trip - may not
be as fortunate this time. (1) SOUTHERN SWAN MAN has 2 wins in his last 3 starts...but with easy trips
vs. much easier - not sure he can hang with these better ones, but we'll find out tonight. (7) HEART
OFGOLD DEVIE made a break last time and draws Post 7 tonight - prefer to just watch, for now.
RACE 4 - (2) APRIL AVA has some excuses lately (bad posts, broke leaving) but she gets a class drop
tonight, draws inside, and figures to be primed to bring her best effort - deserves top billing, but she's 0 for
7 here this year so don't fall in love if the price is too short. (3) SPORTS FLIX seems like she MAY be off
form right now, but it's hard to say - she gets a meaningful class drop, so this could be a spot where we see
a wake up call. (1) PRAY THE ROSARY has been racing (and looking) good lately - if she works out an
easy trip from this spot, she could make some noise and land somewhere on the ticket. (7) CLASSICIST
was a dead game winner 2 back, and can be forgiven for weakening against the razor sharp Easy To Please
in her last - has the speed to leave even from out here, but losing Bartlett could hurt - ok for exotics. (5)
ANDRA DAY rallied for 3rd in a NW6 event upon arrival from Canada then rallied for the show spot
again last week vs. older mares - will need some battling up front to make her late kick work tonight. (6)
DELIGHTFUL Z TAM is a solid 3YO and was an excellent 2nd last week - the knock tonight is the draw,
as she may just have too much work to do when they turn for home. (4) GREENHILL HANOVER
probably needs to be in a bit easier to be a serious player
RACE 5 - (5) WET MY WHISTLE has taken a liking to Yonkers, racing huge in all 3 of her starts - she's
been away for 3 weeks so that's at least a bit of a concern but if she's anything close to her most recent
form, she'll be a handful tonight. (4) DC ANNA put it all together in that sharp win 2 back, then raced well
again last week, holding very gamely to the end after getting worn down by the sharp winner - can land
somewhere in the exotics tonight with any half decent trip. (3) CHAPOLIER was 3rd behind the top choice
2 back, then 3rd again last week behind a couple of nice ones...he'll be rallying late, with a chance to grab
another good piece. (2) GOO GOO DOLL dropped out of stakes competition last week and was a close 2nd
at Chester - should fit well with these, assuming she has no trouble navigating the half miler. (8) CREDIT
CON beat a NW4 field at PcD two back then beat one here last week - will be facing tougher now and also
gets stuck with Post 8...he's probably looking at a smaller share this week. (6) CHURCH SOUT has really
upped his game since moving to this barn during the summer, and comes into this in top form - he'll be
facing much tougher, however, and doesn't draw very well - we'll see if he can keep things going against
some better competition. (1) EMOTIONS RICHES was off a bad date to his last and broke in his local
debut - prefer to just observe, at least for now. (7) DUDELOOKSLIKELINDY draws poorly off a sick
scratch for his YR debut - another that we'll just be watching this week
RACE 6 - (3) SHEIKH YABOOTY N had to work to get the job done last week vs. a bit softer, but she
adds Lasix for tonight so that may explain why she wasn't at her absolute best - willing to stick with her,
looking for an even sharper mile tonight. (2) ANGELS PRIDE's last win looks great on paper but note that
it was a 4 horse field, and the winner just gave way at the top of the lane (with the pocket horse making a
break as they turned for home) - that being said, she IS a streaky mare, and may have picked up some
confidence with that effort - has a chance to repeat from this spot. (7) WESTBEACH is off 3 weeks and
draws post 7 for her YR debut but she won her last 2 up in Canada, and moves to a barn that has done well
with these in recent years - good value play? (6) BYE BYE MICHELLE hit board in her last 3 and is solid
at this level - 3 weeks off and Post 6 are negatives, but that 15-1 ML price makes her worth at least
considering. (4) ANNE BONNEY N wired a field in this class here back on 8/12 - another possibility at a
price of the top ones disappoint. (1) EYE POPPING drops and draws the rail, but would need a major wake
up call to beat these - barn does pop some of these, but still leaning towards others. (5) CHECKERED
PAST used a nice trip to beat cheaper last week - probably in a little tough tonight, though
RACE 7 - (1) YOU WILL BE QUEEN was an excellent 2nd from Post 8 in her YR debut - got outsprinted
from the pocket by #5 in her next, then was trapped too long in her last to have any realistic chance to run
down the winner - overdue to land on the winning trip. (5) ETHAN T HANOVER was able to outkick the
top choice from the pocket 2 back, then picked up a 4th in the Matron last week - he's closing in on the
$250K in earnings mark, and sports a 7-4-0-2 local slate - clearly a major threat. (4) BIG NUDGE was the
odds on choice in PA in his last 3 starts and was able to deliver a pair of wins (with a solid first over 3rd in
the other) - he made a break in one of his 3 Yonkers starts but actually raced pretty well in the other two -
should be a decent price if you think the top pair may be a bit vulnerable. (2) MY BOY CHRISTIAN has
been a steady player lately - probably not a threat to win, but he could end up somewhere in the exotics. (7)
ALTUS HANOVER has proven to be a pretty nice trotter- gets a pass for his last (horrible weather and
track conditions), but he's stuck all the way outside and loses Bartlett - keep an eye on him for when he's in
a better spot. (3) SWISS HOUSE ONFIRE shows wins 4 and 5 starts back but those were vs. easier - seems
a bit below the main players in here. (6) LOOK IN MY EYES has been away since June and figures to
need a start or two
RACE 8 - (5) SCUOLA HANOVER was razor sharp when last seen here in October, and returns after
winning her last 3 in Delaware - she's in career form right now, is riding a 5 race win streak, and benefits
from the 5 horse field - deserves top billing. (4) THE BETHINATOR impressed in her local debut beating a
NW30000 field, then beat the Open the following week - can be excused for tiring last start after a brutal
opening half, and she figures to be the main danger tonight - definitely a chance she could steal this one. (3)
EDGE OF ETERNITY started off here in NW10000 at the end of Sept. and has held that fine form all the
way up to the Open - was 3rd last week, and can pick up another good piece tonight. (1) LUCKY ARTIST
A moves up to the Open after beating the $50K claimers the last 2 weeks - she's undeniably sharp, but does
seem a notch below the top ones. (2) ROSE RUN VICTORY has 5 wins since August but all vs. cheaper -
has to prove she can hold her own at this level
RACE 9 - (2) JIVE DANCING A had been razor sharp for some time, but was used too hard in the Open
in her last pair and just wasn't up for it - assuming those efforts didn't dull her spirit, there's a good chance
she'll be able to take advantage of the significant class relief tonight. (4) ROCKNROLL ANNIE can be
pretty inconsistent, but does throw some efforts that could make her a player here - willing to consider if
the price is right. (5) MAJOR BATTLE didn't fire her best shot last week, but it's not like she raced poorly -
has gone more than her share of strong miles here, and can be a threat for a good chunk with the right trip.
(6) BETTORS HEART N was the "hot horse" after arriving in this country but once she started to tail, she
never got back to those early miles- has been doing good work lately at lower levels, and may be building
some confidence back - not sure she can win from Post 6, but she can definitely pick up a piece. (1)
DEMETER N has done her best work vs. easier over the past few months - would need a big wake up call
to contend for the top prize right now. (3) SHELLIE DE VIE drops after a dismal try in the Open, but her
best effort still come vs. a bit easier - prefer others
RACE 10 - (1) DRAGONS LUCKY LADY is a 3YO filly facing older mares and she's moving up in class
- those would usually be major negatives, but this young lady has been outstanding since arriving at YR 4
starts back, and appears to have a promising career ahead of her - can beat her elders if she brings that same
stellar form tonight. (6) LIT DE ROSE made a break 2 starts back but her recent Canadian lines have been
otherwise excellent - she's surely a good fit here, and perhaps the tote board will offer clues as to how ready
her new barn has her for tonight (4) HEAVENS SHOWGIRL A used all of a perfect trip to pick up her first
U.S. victory last week - would be no surprise at all here but that 3/2 ML price makes her a lot less attractive
- we'll see if she can build off that last win. (5) CASH ROLL almost broke at the start last week and that
probably cost her being closer at the end - her overall form has been terrific, and she may be able to
rebound here to grab a piece, at a price. (2) SEZANA N has been racing "ok" since that surprising win 3
back, but probably needs to be in a bit easier before she can contend for a top slot again. (3) JOSSIE
JAMES A has been well off her best game lately - sticking with others, for now
RACE 11 - (1) MYSTICAL CARRIE held her own in the Open and now drops, draws the pole, and gets to
call the shots - the one to beat (though hardly a cinch). (4) LADYBELUCKYTONITE landed on a brutal
trip last week but still only lost by a length after her bid stalled at the top of the lane - an easier trip gives
her a good chance to be right there. (3) TURNTHEFORWNAROUND was a very sharp winner here 3
back, then an ok 4th in the Open the next week - no prayer from Post 8 in last, but the move inside should
make her a live player once again. (6) TUAPEKA JESSIE N crushed 3 fields at Batavia after the barn
change then shipped down and went a BIG mile here, doing all the heavy lifting only to get collared to the
wire by the perfect trip favorite - tough draw, but still worth including in exotics. (2) GOLDEN QUEST N
has been having a tough year but her recent efforts have been much better - an easy enough trip could help
her take home a small share. (5) BETTERB CHEVRON N wasn't on her best game when she weakened as
the 1/5 choice on 11/4, then she was scratched sick from her last - could be a bit vulnerable right now. (7)
CRAZY CAUTE didn't fire enough last time and now draws Post 7 - prefer others tonight. (8) LOVELY
DONNA draws Post 8 after being away for 3 weeks and may take the conservative approach tonight
RACE 12 - (4) CORAL BELLA should be able to make an easy lead here, and faces a field of pretty
suspect rivals - she's hardly the most reliable mare herself, but this may be a crew that she can handle. (3)
ACEFOURTYFOUR ALEX raced gamely for 2nd off the first over trip last week - gets another class drop,
and could be a big player once more. (1) HIGH ROLLING A has been struggling to finish her miles -
moves from father's barn to son's for tonight, and we'll see if the subtle switch perks her up some. (2)
GETTING GONE throws some good late rallies when in the right mood - throw her in underneath. (5)
ACEFORTYFOUR DOME is still trying to get back to that terrific form she had earlier in the summer -
definitely in need of some sort of wake up call. (6) OK LETS ROCKNROLL exits NW4 to face older but
her lines are a bit better than they look - ok bomb for 3rd/4th. (7) QUITE A DELIGHT N throws a decent
one here and there but can never seem to build off those better races - tough spot tonight, even if she shows
up in a racing mood. (8) NARINA HANOVER arrives from VD and seems awfully cheap.