The Empire Report - Thursday, March 25, 2021 - Race Analysis
RACE 1 - (3) ACEFOURTYFOUR ALEX was a bit off form 2 back but rebounded with a big first over try
in her last - always dangerous down at this bottom level, and her "typical" effort might get her home on top
tonight. (1) AL MAR GOT A FEVER really disappointed in her YR return, just quitting badly from the
pocket as the 2/5 choice - disappointed again in her next as the favorite, but at least was a close 3rd at the
wire - she'll probably beat these some time soon...but remains hard to back on top at too short a price! (5)
AMERICAN TOUR N shows a mixed bag of tries since arriving 4 starts back...but if she can replicate that
last (solid) effort, she can definitely have a big say here. (4) LADYBELUCKYTONITE continues to pick
up smaller pieces, seemingly unable to get motivated until too late in her miles - will only use underneath
until she shows a bit better effort. (6) CHECKERED PAST is just 1 for 19 here (last 3 years) but does seem
to be on the upswing - willing to include on the bottom of exotics. (2) ALL ABOUT MADI is still trying to
sharpen after a very long layoff - draws inside for a hot barn, so maybe that'll help her stay close and take
home a piece? (8) VH PRINCESS BREA seems to fit with these when she races close to the pace, but the
shipper seems to struggle when coming from the back - wait for a better spot. (7) THREEDEE DELIGHT
A had a good run of solid efforts but was dull in last, and all her barnmates seem to be struggling too
RACE 2 - (6) DESWANSLITTLELORIE was in to go with a MUCH tougher field in last Thursday's
canceled card, and seemed pretty vulnerable - this bunch is a lot softer and while she'll still need to get
around the half for her new connections, she's a much better play in this spot. (2) CIRCLE OF LIFE AS
hasn't really gone "fast" yet, but she has won 4 of 5 starts as a 4YO, and hails from top connections - ships
in off a PcD win (over #1), and deserves plenty of respect. (1) BATTLE QUEEN arrived from Iowa with an
amazing 24-21-2-1 career slate and was moving to one of the highest percentage barns in the area - seemed
like a recipe for major success, but that just hasn't happened, and she's now lost 3 straight at very short
prices - using underneath only until she starts to improve. (5) MANWILLING doesn't win very often but he
does usually rally late for a decent piece - include in exotics. (8) SWISS HOUSE ONFIRE has more
"ability" than most of these but he lands Post 8 with just one start in 7 weeks, and also isn't that great on the
Yonkers turns - ok bomb for longshot fans. (4) HOOLIE N HECTOR qualified nicely to start his 3YO
campaign but was just "ok" at 2 - prefer to just watch a start or two. (7) CATWALK AS has gone a few ok
local tries but is 0 for 7 here and stuck far outside - chance for small piece with an opportunistic trip. (3)
BLUFFINER's last pair at Fhd. look better, but he may be on the cheaper side - prefer others
RACE 3 - Very tough race! (4) FAITHFUL DESIRE is the "x factor" here - she just missed to Lispatty 3
starts back and battled mares much better than these at Fhd. to start off the new year...but she drops in for a
basement tag tonight after a total clunker 2 back (and then a dull try in last), and it's hard to predict if we'll
see a "drop and pop" -- or a"drop and flop" (if she's even close to "right", she should beat this soft bunch).
(6) IDEAL CLASSIC has gone from finishing on the wire with Matchmaker favorite Alexa Skye just a
couple of months ago, to failing to get a check at the bottom level (last week) - wouldn't be stunned to see
her wake up and contend even from out here, but even Bartlett bails from her to drive a longshot this week!
(2) LAALWAYS AMARTINI was actually pretty good 2 back but had the misfortune of landing in the
same race as the "new and improved" More Than Many - another that could find her way somewhere onto
this ticket with a decent trip. (5) ZOE ELLASEN was favored last week but unable to last on the front end -
may be able to make amends tonight, but would need a much better price to give her another chance. (3)
BULLVILLEKARLA is overdue for a wake up call and Bartlett does take her over #6 - possible "live
bomb" in a wide open race. (1) CRYSTAL SPARKLES N always takes $$ but has been way off form for
ages, failing to even hit the board in her last 7 starts - only using underneath. (8) ONEIDA BLUE CHIP
finally got a better draw last week (Post 3) but the card was canceled due to earlier showers - no luck with
the re-draw, though. (7) CHECK MACH is wildly inconsistent, but Post 7 will be a problem regardless
RACE 4 - (4) CINDERELLA DELIGHT ships in from Ohio with lines that would probably have made her
about 15-1 in here...but since she's now under the care of the "Super Siblings", chances are she'll be the
favorite...and if she improves like so many others have upon entering this very high % barn, she'll have a
good chance to take these wire to wire. (1) DIAMONDTOOTHGERTIE hasn't been on her best game but
she hasn't been "bad" either - the drop to the bottom level tonight may perk her up significantly...and that
may lead to one of her "brush and crush" performances - possibility. (7) SEZANA N may offer some value
here - hasn't been down at this level for a while but her last 3 starts (in this class) produced a win and two
2nds, and she'll be a decent price here - was in a MUCH easier field for the weather canceled card but if
Brennan can work out a manageable trip, she may have a chance to be right there. (2) BERAZZLED ships
in sharp from Stga. but was probably in an easier spot for last week's scrapped card - has a mixed local
history, but her best effort would put right in the mix. (3) LETME FLY LOW was sent off as the odds on
choice in NJ the last 2 starts (from Post 9 and 10) but was unable to deliver either time - she'll see her price
go way up now...and is reasonable to consider if searching for some value. (6) J ROCKIN B has been rock
solid for weeks, and should do just fine for her new connections too - the issue here is that she's drawn
outside so many other solid performers - ok piece. (8) MILLWOOD BONNIE N showed good signs 2 and
3 back before last week's dud -guessing she'll see a conservative trip from out here. (7) KEENE OLIVIA
draws Post 7 after being forced to re-qualify - pass for now.
RACE 5 - (2) BALFAST N was a winner at this level in her first YR start (1/14) and has been stuck facing
much better since then - drops back down to that winning level tonight, draws inside, and has been racing
well enough to be a major threat. (1) MOTU MOONBEAM N has two recent wins over cheaper, but she's
beaten THIS class recently too (12/1) - moves to her 3rd barn in 3 weeks and figures to do just as well... the
main danger. (3) NORMANS MADELINE isn't all that consistent, but she gets the potent combination of
both post and class relief tonight, and that could produce one of her better efforts - chance for a nice piece
of this. (5) QUITE A DELIGHT N has stepped up her game a bit lately - moves up a notch, but may be
able to use her late rally to land somewhere in the exotics. (7) FREE EXCHANGE has a knack for saving
ground and grabbing small pieces with a late rally - good bomb to throw in for 3rd. (4) SHELLIE DE VIE
has "meh" form over at The Swamp, but draws well enough to maybe save ground and take home a minor
share. (8) COVEREDNDIAMONDS was a "one and done" for her connections last week, then quickly
re-claimed by her former team - comes into this with 2 straight front end wins, but will be hard pressed to
do that here, with the class bump and 8 hole. (6) ALL ABOUT AMY has been good lately vs. the bottom
class but this bunch is a lot tougher...especially with the outside draw.
RACE 6 - (1) BYE BYE FELICIA isn't the most reliable mare on the planet but she did crush this class 4
starts back and her training team is winning races at their typical 30% rate again - solid chance to come out
on top with anything close to her best effort. (2) BYE BYE MICHELLE was an excellent 3rd last week and
does tend to string together good efforts - biggest concern is her trip....which may not turn out that great
from this spot. (3) FEELIN RED HOT has lost several steps from her outstanding 2019 form but still pops
up with strong efforts, when in the right mood - steps up after beating cheaper from the pocket last week,
and could be a major player from this spot as well. (7) PONDER THE ODDS was well backed for her 2021
debut and didn't disappoint, beating lesser from the pocket last week - faces much tougher now (from a
much tougher post), and that might limit her to a smaller share. (6) ROBYN CAMDEN seems off her best
game right now but still fits nicely in here - relies on a contested pace to make her late rally work, though,
and she may not get that tonight. (8) A CRAFTY LADY has been really sharp, but now lands all the way
outside with the main threats all the way inside - may have to wait for a better spot. (5) BONTZ N actually
beat this class 3 back, but with a perfect trip in an easier field - she's probably better with a bit softer crew.
(4) MALNIFICENT looked a bit better last time, but is definitely calling out for a class drop.
RACE 7 - (4) ROLLING GOING GONE keeps coming up with big mile after big mile, regardless of bad
dates, class hikes, different trips, and anything else that gets in her way - draws inside some of her main
foes, and that gives her the edge tonight. (8) BETTORB CHEVRON N came back sharp to start 2021 and
has generally held that form, though struggling just a bit when in a little too tough - this field should be
right up her alley, but it'll be Zeron's job to find her a workable trip - legit threat with any half-decent
journey. (6) ANGELS PRIDE is a quirky mare, capable of big efforts OR total clunkers on any given week
- might take a shot at leaving the gate here and if she does, her chances definitely go up considerably. (7)
SANDYS BEACH is really hitting on all cylinders now but her outstanding brush definitely suffers when
there's traffic in front of her...and that's a distinct possibility tonight, with both a big class hike and poor
draw. (5) ASHTINI beat cheaper at Fhd. 2 back then finished with alert pace from a terrible spot here in last
- should be a nice price, and does have a shot to rally for a minor share. (1) ANNABETH started the year
off sharp but has struggled a bit since bumping up to this level - rail will help, but just not sure if she's sharp
enough right now to capitalize. (2) THE CHARMING MOA N came back to life in late Jan. but seems to
have leveled off a bit - may need a drop to strut her best stuff. (3) ROCKIN THE BOYS A beat this class 3
back while riding a form spree but her last pair suggest she's gone the other way now - will wait for a better
try before hopping back on board
RACE 8 - Good race: . (4) HIGH ROLLING A has been much better since the barn change 3 back, and is
looking at another good trip from this spot - logical player (and Stratton's choice over #3). (2) IM VERY
SPECIAL has been off her best form and a good one to play against in recent weeks - her last try was pretty
good, though (from a no chance spot), and may be hinting at a return to better form -- willing to use this
week as long as she's not overbet. (3) POPPY DRAYTON was favored against better last week but found
herself in no-man's land after getting looped, and her fate was sealed very early on - drops to an easier spot
now, figures to be a better price, and probably deserves another chance. (7) JEWELS FORREAL followed
up her sharp upset win from 2 back with an excellent rallying 4th against this class in last - she's SHARP
enough to win right now...but can she find a way to overcome the draw? (6) JOSSIE JAMES A can be
excused for that mile 3 back (bizarre drive) but was a nice winner in her next, and might have been 2nd last
week had she not been trapped for a long way - another bomb with a chance to make some noise here. (8)
SCANDALICIOUS was ok in that win 2 back but actually very good in last week's 3rd place finish - may
struggle to reach from Post 8, though. (1) FIRSTUP returns to YR after some success vs. cheaper at Stga -
not sure she's sharp enough right now to hang with these, though. (5) CHASE YOU seems to need easy
trips vs. cheaper fields in order to be a serious player.
RACE 9 - (5) HUNTING AS has hit board in all 6 local starts (2 wins), handles any trip, and basically
races well every start - he usually goes off a "fair" price and assuming that's the case again tonight, he's
certainly worth a play. (3) WITH OUT A DOUBT didn't fire in her first try off the barn change but
certainly did in her next, nearly taking them coast to coast at 46-1 -- expect another big effort tonight...and
could easily get the top prize if left alone on the front end. (4) BEERTHIRTY K was a bit disappointing last
time but shows up on Lasix tonight, and that could explain his somewhat lackluster performance - he'd won
3 straight prior to that, so would certainly be no surprise at all tonight. (2) KASHA V seems to be back on
the upswing, and that last mile is better than it looks - could land somewhere on the ticket if any of the top
trio falter. (1) HANOVERS BEST has been solid upstate but vs. cheaper - looking at only a smaller piece
vs. these. (7) HATIKVAH always had ability but has been on the shelf since a "sick" scratch in November,
and the 2 qualifiers don't inspire much confidence right now - will just observe this week
RACE 10 - (2) SALLY FLETCHER A couldn't match strides with razor sharp Sandys Beach on the back
side last week (most mares at this level CAN'T), but she did keep coming after being left uncovered (and
pacing her OWN 3rd quarter in :27.3), moving into 2nd and holding well to the wire - figures to trip out
tonight and looms the one to beat...unless (3) MORE THAN MANY elevates her game even more this
week. The latter improved by leaps and bounds off the barn change two back as she effortlessly looped,
then wired the field from Post 8 - was REALLY good again in last, working hard to get the lead (:27.1) and
then holding tenaciously for 3rd, even after getting blown away by Sandys Beach at 3/4s - would be no
surprise at all. (1) AMANDEROSA raced evenly from last against better last week and now drops down to
the level where she was 2nd the last 2X....while also drawing the pole now - logical threat to land on this
ticket somewhere. (8) QUEEN LOSTRIS N missed 6 weeks, qualified, missed another month then was a
bit short in her first start back - may be ready to do some damage upon arrival from Pocono, but will have
to overcome the draw to do that...probably looking at a smaller piece tonight. (5) SHECOULDBEGOOD N
is just 1 for 21 at YR and has lost many times vs. cheaper - may be able to beat a few for a minor share. (4)
WOODMERE HARRIET got her first local win last week (9th start) but that was a NW2 field - really
moves up in class tonight, and will have to prove she belongs. (6) GIRLS GOT RHYTHM comes back
after missing a month (sick scr.) and just wasn't all that good prior to that - pass for now. (7) MILADY
DENVER A is just one of several from this barn that just isn't functioning right now.