The Empire Report - Wednesday, March 24, 2021 - Race Analysis
RACE 1 - (2) CHELSKI was used very hard last week and had license to weaken a bit in the stretch - her
current local slate is now 5-2-2-1 and while it's hard to say how much "upside" she has, it's clear that she's a
solid threat every week in THIS class - far from a cinch, but definitely the one to beat. (8) SUNSHINE
HALL rallied to upset this class at 22-1 back on 1/27, then was really coming hard late in last after sitting
in the back for most of the way - gets the worst of the draw once again, but has a chance to be a legit threat
IF Dube can work out a manageable trip for her. (6) ADMITYOUREWRONG's last effort was her best try
so far at YR after a trio of "ok" miles - she should be able to beat this class some time soon...and maybe
even tonight. (3) POWERED BY MACH was wildly overdriven in her local debut and paid for it - can
have a better showing tonight with a more patient steer. (1) UPTOWN CALLIE hasn't been doing much
across the river and wasn't all that effective in many of her older local tries - does draw the pole, though,
and that could give her a chance for a minor share. (4) AMERICAN CHANCE will appreciate dropping
from the Series, but note that she was 0 for 16 (against this type) prior to that - maybe a minor share? (5)
BACI BACI ships in from the midwest to make her 3YO debut and it's hard to know what to expect - prefer
to just watch, for now. (7) J M BETTING HEARTS makes her 4YO debut for a barn that has had some
success in the past - no spot here, though, and we'll just keep an eye on her at this point
RACE 2 - (6) NEW HEAVEN was caught way back vs. much better last start and never had a prayer - but
still only lost by a handful of lengths - drops to a much kinder spot tonight and although he draws outside
his main rivals, the short field should help his cause - should offer some decent value, and is worth a look.
(5) FULL RIGHTS steps up after wiring lesser in his last pair and should have plenty of confidence off
those 2 miles - he fits just fine at this level when "right", and he's certainly feeling good at the moment - the
one to beat, but also figures to be overbet. (3) HAMMER CREEK did good work vs. cheaper back in late
Jan./early Feb. but has held that form well at these higher levels, despite a trio of bad posts - gets post relief
now, and has every chance to be a legit player from start to finish. (1) MACMORRIS HANOVER was
handled conservatively 2 back off the layoff, then was a decent first over 2nd to #5 in last - not sure he's
ready to improve enough to WIN tonight, but it would hardly be a shock if he did. (2) RACEACE has done
good work since the recent claim but will be facing tougher tonight - likely looking at a smaller share here.
(7) TRAVEL WINNER was off 45 days to his last and was up the track - wait for some better signs
RACE 3 - (3) ASKMELATER HANOVER raced very well here in 2 starts last year (a win and a 3rd), but
had no prayer at all from Post 8 in his first local try of 2021 - drops, move inside, and it's a logical spot to
expect quick improvement - one of several to consider in this pretty wide open affair. (2) CYCLONE MAX
IMUS had been struggling mightily but did offer some hope last week when he stayed trotting all the way,
and was able to stay on for 2nd despite having to chase the blazing fractions set by the runaway winner -
may be able to build off that mile and handle this modest bunch...but not ready to accept a short price on
him. (5) MUFASA AS hasn't threatened to win a race in ages, but he has been "steady" lately - might be
ready for a more aggressive try, and is worth considering if the price is juicy enough. (4) LADY EAGLE
will attract plenty of $$ off the drop to the basement but it's hard to say if she's sharp enough right now to
cash in - would be no surprise at, but won't be offering any value for the top slot. (1) BAZILLIONAIRE
has been regularly overbet lately, despite his 2 for 29 local record - good spot to pick up another piece, but
looking at others for the top prizes. Both (8) SUPERIORCOURT and (6) SHOWMEYOURGUNS would
have been rated higher with better draws - both will be big prices, and EITHER would have a chance to
make some late noise if things get really testy up front. (7) DEW CAN DEW is now 0 for 28 here over the
last 3 years and draws outside - have to pass
RACE 4 - Good race: (6) ALII NUI was actually holding her own in the Matchmaker Series but dropping
down to this more appropriate class is a wise decision - no guarantee she'll beat these, but she's definitely
sharp enough now to have a decent chance with any manageable trip. (7) NORTH STAR IDEAL may have
lost some of her edge after being forced to tackle some pretty tough older mares in her last few starts OR
she just might have been in difficult spots, and ready to rebound now that she's back in a much more comfy
class - very willing to include her on our tickets tonight, even from out here. (5) MAJOR BATTLE shipped
in sharp from NJ and was able to parlay an easy trip into a victory, in her first local start - stays in the same
class, but a couple of fresh (dropdown) faces may make things a little harder this time...still, a possibility.
(8) DANCE CLUB was used hard making the top last week and it left her a little short at the end (2nd to
#5) - remains razor sharp, but facing a very tough assignment here because of the draw. (4) STOWAWAY
HANOVER tired badly after being hard used in last then was scratched sick the following week - we know
the ability is there, and she's a good bomb to include if spreading a bit. (1) TIPPERARY HILL has been
close at the end in all of her recent tries, and the rail draw will help her cause tonight - may just be a few
too many tough ones in here, though. (2) WINDSONG PARISIAN catches a tough field for her YR return
and may need to wait for an easier spot to do any real damage. (3) LADY MAYA raced well in a bunch of
starts here last year, but may not be returning as sharp right now - just a tough field to return to.
RACE 5 - (1) SIR JOHN F has been plagued by horrible posts (in general) for ages, but he's been "sneaky
ok" in several of those no-chance starts, and was actually very good in his last - his barn has won a ton of
races this meet, and now this guy will get his chance to add his name to that list. (4) DIRTY SECRET will
attract a lot of tote action with the drop to the basement and is legitimately the main danger - may not be on
her best game right now, though, and could be just a bit vulnerable. (6) ER SOPHIA shipped in showing a
bunch of quality miles at Monti and quickly proves that she belongs down here with her 3rd place finish on
3/4 - was a steady 5th (vs. a very good field) in a fast mile the next week, and figures to appreciate the class
relief tonight - only knock is the post, but she just may be able to overcome it. (2) CON AIR HALL has
been "ok" in most of his recent, and now gets a class drop and inside draw - use underneath in exotics. (3)
TOTAL DIVA also gets both post and class relief, and is another that should be in contention for a piece of
this. (5) MADHATTER BLUECHIP seemed to be on the verge of a nice comeback after a long layoff but
he stopped badly here on 1/19, was scratched sick from his next, and hard to gauge off his work upstate
since then - maybe check the tote board for clues? (7) CRAZY ABOUT PAT just folded badly chasing a
hot pace in last, and now lands way outside - pass for now. (8) TORKIL needs a much easier spot than this
RACE 6 - M Life Rewards Gents Pacing Series Consolation: (3) GOT THE MOJO was very aggressively
handled in his local debut and paid for it at the end - dead game, close up3rd after a first over trip in next,
then an even 3rd behind DIAMONDBEACH's razor sharp mile last week - one of several possibilities in
this competitive race, and should be worth a play at the price. (2) PANTHER TIME didn't win any legs but
was close all three weeks, racing a bit differently each time - seems capable of beating these IF he lands on
the right trip. (5) MY PAL JOE seemed like one of the favorites to win this series....but he didn't even come
close to winning a single leg (losing twice as the odds-on choice) - needs to find his better game quickly if
he wants to at least have a shot in the consolation. (1) SAILBOAT HANOVER has been a bit disappointing
in his 3 tries, though not terrible - may deserve a little extra consideration as his barn won FOUR races on
Monday night. (4) ODDS ON BREXIT had no chance in last and gets a pass...but he's really been just "ok"
in general lately, and is probably looking at only a smaller piece tonight. (7) SOCIAL THEORIES has
always been a bit below these, but he's good at picking up small pieces when he can grab an easy trip - ok
bomb for 3rd/4th. (8) SWEET TRUTH was really struggling after a sale purchase in Jan. - some better life
2 back, then even more improvement in last...but tonight's draw is a killer. (6) TREVORS ACE was ok in
the first 2 legs but empty in last - seems like a tough spot, even if he bounces right back.
RACE 7 - M Life Rewards Gents Pacing Series Final - excellent race, especially because of the draw!: (4)
RETOUR AU JEU was already committed to racing from well back last week when he ended up with
overly eventful trip, losing any realistic chance - his previous body of work had been excellent, and he may
end up with a pretty nice trip from this spot - his price is going to go up considerably, and that makes him
worth using. (8) DIAMONDBEACH is clearly the sharpest horse in here by far...but he gets stuck with
Post 8 for the Final and will now need a bit of luck to go along with his ability - assuming the draw makes
him a decent price, he's still worth using. (7) DRAGON SAID gives us mixed feelings - his turnaround in
just ONE week upon entering this barn was truly amazing, and he followed that up with a 2nd straight :27
kicker in his next to prove that the first explosion was no fluke - but his next start (a win) wasn't quite as
eye popping, and he even came close to a break on the first turn - he comes into the final having missed a
week, and lands Post 7 without any "real" gate speed to help him improve position...but how can you not at
least throw him onto your ticket at 15-1 ML?? (1) LOUS SWEETREVENGE and (1A) ROLLING WITH
SAM form a solid entry for a always hot barn that just happened to win 4 races on Monday night - but
here's the thing....(1A) ROLLING WITH SAM might be the more "attractive" of the pair right now but as
part of the entry, he'll only be a fraction of the price he'd be on his own - respect the chances of one/both of
them to land on this ticket...but there won't be much value to be had. (6) SCOOTNROLL was a perfect trip
winner in a slow mile in the first leg, a SHARP winner in Leg 2, then just an even 4th in last - needs some
wild action up front to have a chance at a late explosion here (from Post 6). (2) CIGAR SMOKING TONY
is a hard knocking performer but may be in a tough spot here from Post 2 - could be a tough trip coming his
way. (3) SALT LIFE was able to steal one on the lead last week, but seems unlikely to replicate that here
RACE 8 - (7) GOLDEN KRONOS has a good local history - no luck in his first 4 tries here earlier this
year, but those were against much tougher than these - returns off a confidence building win at Stga., and
the price from Post 7 will make him worth a play. (5) CRAZYCAT is also taking a drop from a few tries
against better here at Yonkers, and figures to be a solid player...assuming he minds his manners (made an
early miscue here on 2/17). (4) BULLY BOY got pretty hot after hitting the lead in a much weaker field
last week but it didn't matter, as he was able to just outrun them on the clock - not sure that'll work as well
against these better rivals though...and he'll almost certainly be overbet off that last win (1) INNISFALLEN
shipped in off a sharp front end score at The Swamp but was unable to keep things going trying the same
speedy tactics against the locals - he'll surely be using that speed to be up close again tonight, and we'll see
if he has some more staying power this time. (8) OOH RAH was short here last week vs. a better field (2nd
off the layoff) - eligible to be tighter now, but the poor draw will probably limit his production (even if
sharper). (2) BROWNIE finally was able to find a bottom field he could beat 2 back, but probably looking
at only smaller pieces until he can drop back down in class. (3) LIGHTS COME ON was promising as a
youngster but is just 10-0-1-1 at 4 and 5 - some ok lines at Dover, but prefer to just watch a start before
considering a wager. (6) GETTIN MESSI wired cheaper here 3 back but has struggled overall in most of
his other starts - tough to recommend right now.
RACE 9 - (4) AFTER ALL PAUL isn't the handiest trotter, isn't great on the turns here but he DOES try
hard every week, and rebounded from a miscue 2 back with a crisp rallying 3rd in last - if he can be within
striking range when they turn for home here, he has a shot to reel 'em in late. (2) SECRET BRO had been
sharp recently so it was a surprise to see him just fail to get involved at all last week - lands in a good spot
for tonight, and anything close to his better efforts will make him a big threat. (1) WINDSONG PIONEER
loves it on the front end and he'll get his first chance to be there in several weeks - not sure if he can make it
hold up all the way but if speed is good tonight, give him some extra consideration. (5) BLUE AND BOLD
is a very tough call - climbed up the class ladder as he was behaving every week, but now he's made breaks
in 2 of his last 3, and has to be considered pretty risky at the moment - if considering him on top, just make
sure to get a good price. (3) LUCKY ARNOLD has really upped his game since the recent barn change -
comes into this off a bad date, though (sick scratch), and he may not be at his best - small piece only. (6)
ESA was able to wire cheaper 2 back after finishing 2nd the week before - no luck after jumping up to this
higher level, though, and drawing Post 6 isn't going to help his case tonight. (7) WINNERESS takes a big
jump up in class off the claim, and also gets stuck with the worst post - wait for a better spot
RACE 10 - The last 2X (5) AFLUENT SEELSTER dropped to this level she drew Post 5, went right to the
top, and was able to take 'em wire to wire - will try for the "hat trick" tonight...and there's a good chance
she can get it. (6) ANN HILL hasn't been "sharp" lately, but she's been good enough to keep picking up
pieces at this bottom level - maybe Bongiorno will see an opportunity to improve at the start here, and that
would give her a chance to pick up another good chunk. (2) FOX VALLEY CHARLIZ was so good last
fall/early winter but just hasn't been close to that form recently - did pick up a 2nd at PcD last week but if
she was "good", she would have jogged off that perfect trip - possible, but no value on top as the 9/5 ML
choice. (8) BEST AMERICAN CHIC was 0 for 11 here the last 2 years but did race well in a bunch of
those starts - good bomb to include in exotics (even from out here) as she returns from NJ. (1) DEUCES
FOR CHARITY has lost a zillion in a row here at YR but does grab some smaller pieces - draw gives her a
chance for 3rd/4th. (3) DEWAR N SODA has been away for 9 months but that qua. doesn't look too bad -
keep an eye for future consideration. (7) WATCH MY LUCK was very promising in her local debut, failed
on the lead in her next, then really disappointed in her last - Post 7 isn't going to help her get back on track
tonight. (4) FEAR MY SHADOW has a recent win and 2nd at Fhd. but just seems a little cheap.