The Empire Report - Thursday, May 20, 2021 - Race Analysis
RACE 1 - NAADA Spring Trot Series Final: (3) EXARCH has held his fine form for some time, and has
shown that he can fly off the gate to the front (and avoid any kind of early trouble) - got worn down (by #6)
and had to settle for 2nd last week, but he might be able to take them wire to wire tonight in the Final. (1)
DARK POOL just missed after cutting the mile in his last, and that was after missing 3 weeks - goes back
to Calabrese tonight, and the pair teamed for a win and a 2nd here not long ago - may be the main danger,
as long as he gets off to a good start. (5) RACEACE may be the "best" horse, but he's made quite a number
of miscues recently (including last week) - IF he behaves, he'll have a legitimate chance here...and may
even be a decent price. (2) KEYSTONE BLADE has trotted evenly in his last couple - definitely ok for a
piece, but will need to find a bit more for a chance at the top prize. (4) MADHATTER BLUECHIP could
only finish evenly for 3rd after a beautiful trip in last - another that will need to be a bit sharper if he hopes
for a bigger slice. (6) GOLDEN KRONOS was a very sharp first over winner last week, but tonight's draw
figures to leave him dealing with a bit more traffic - we'll see if he's able to overcome a tougher trip. (8)
STEALING has an excellent 8-4-0-3 YR record this year, and that includes a win last week - unfortunately
he has no luck with the draw tonight, and will need a lot to go his way to reach from out here. (7) FIJI was
unable to get involved from the back last week, and faces that same dilemma tonight
RACE 2 - (5) BALFAST N lacked the late pop to get to the top pair last week but she had already come
from way just to get into contention - may land on an easier trip tonight, and be able to pick up her first win
for her current connections. (1) SHELLIE DE VIE has had a series of tough spots/unlucky trips lately but
her form has held up pretty well - she's overdue for things to go her way, and that could put her right there
on the wire. (3) ROCKIN THE BOYS A dropped and drew the rail last week so the much improved effort
was certainly expected - couldn't quite finish the job, though, so be careful about taking too short a price on
her tonight. (6) SALLY FLETCHER A came up disappointing last week, squandering a live cover trip
(while dropping, and adding Lasix) - if you're willing to give her another chance, she drops again, her barn
is hot, and the price will definitely be juicy! (2) BETCHA BABY drops back down to the level where she
was 2nd to the red hot Tellitsassymae 3 starts down - willing to excuse her last pair (break, then 8 hole), but
the barn is beyond ice cold right now....so make sure to get a good price if using on top. (4) BULLVILLEK
ARLA has shown some signs of life lately - willing to throw in for 3rd/4th. (7) ACEFORTYFOUR DOME
may improve off the claim, but may also need to wait for a better spot to strut her stuff - a lot of legit rivals
inside of her tonight. (8) CHASE YOU doesn't figure to have much impact from out here
RACE 3 - (1) DROP THE MIC got trapped in at Stga, 2 back or likely would have been much closer at the
end - was a very nice 2nd to the promising Eliza B upon arrival here last week, and draws best for tonight -
definitely one to use. (4) DESTINY BLUE CHIP was heading right for the top when she made that costly
break last week - was close in 3 previous efforts, and will be right there tonight...assuming she stays flat.
(2) MASSTRO took advantage of a collapsing pace when he won here 2 back - didn't have nearly the same
kick in last, and will need to be better if he hopes to contend for the top prize tonight (no value as the 5/2
ML choice). (6) SHARE THE WEALTH has been inconsistent/unreliable early in his career, but does have
the ability to trot with these, on his best effort - at 15-1 ML, he's worth at least a look. (8) INSURED AM S
won a NYSS here at 2, and just missed in the Final - been racing herself into shape for her 3YO campaign
but she draws Post 8 tonight, and loses Sears - may just win anyway, but may not be all that aggressive
from this spot in an overnight event. (3) DUKE OF LINDY is just 1 for 29 lifetime, but still would have a
chance for a minor share if a few things went his way. (5) KILAUEA basically beat breakers and weak ones
to get that 3rd last week - will need to find more to do as well against these. (7) SAN CRISTOBAL hasn't
clicked yet since returning at 3 - pass for now
RACE 4 - (3) FRANSCHOEK drew poorly debuting for her new barn last week but still raced very well,
sustaining a long, wide move to rally nicely for 4th - moves inside for tonight, and a big effort is expected.
(1) QUITE A DELIGHT N is a streaky mare, and her last 2 efforts were very solid - big threat to take home
a nice piece from the pole tonight. (7) CORAL BELLA wasn't on her best game when she shipped out of
here in March, but her overall Hilltop record is excellent (35-6-5-9) - moves to a new small, but successful
barn, and does have gate speed if Dube decides to use it - worth a look if the price is right. (2) MADE OF
JEWELS AS had a useful tightener off the layoff last week - hasn't been on her game in a while, but that
20-1 ML does look appealing. (8) CERTIFIED IDEAL ships in from Monti where she's been holding her
own against the boys - terrible draw, however, and her 1 for 26 local slate (last 3 yrs.) suggests using her
underneath only. (4) ACEFOURTYFOUR ALEX hasn't been sharp in some time, but usually comes around
eventually - maybe throw in for 3rd/4th? (5) CAVIART SCARLETT hails from a hot barn but hasn't been
competitive in a long time - would need a big wake up call. (6) LADY DRIVER was ok until the pace
quickened last week - moves from rail to 6 hole, and may need an easier spot.
RACE 5 - (6) HOOLIE N HECTOR showed some potential at 2 - after a local tightener to start his 3YO
season he took 2 legs of the Weiss Series at PcD, but then was no factor in his next pair - returned to YR
adding Lasix last week, and was a solid 2nd to standout Bluffiner - worth a play in a pretty wide open NW4
trot. (3) CAVALIER GEORGE shows a couple of recent wins at Chester and ships in for a barn that's been
clicking all year - if he gets around the half miler, he should be able to have a say here. (4) YANKEE GIRL
FRIEND finished 3rd in the race where the winner was 2nd - was her first local start (after a long ship up
from Florida) and she's eligible to be even sharper tonight. (8) MOMMS MY DAD was a very solid 3rd in
his only local try (also behind Bluffiner), and he's remained sharp at Fhd. - Post 8 obviously a big issue, but
he may be sharp enough to rally for a piece. (5) SWEET SOUL DAVID had a couple of wins at 2 and both
were over a half mile track (in Canada) - makes his local debut for a trainer/driver combo that's always
dangerous (on either side of the river), but he did get beat at Chester (at 3/5) last start - mixed feelings. (2) I
HAVE A DREAM is just 3 for 30 but seems capable of grabbing a minor share, with a clean trip. (1)
SWAN COUNTRY missed a couple of months due to sickness, and that qualifier is hard to gauge - prefer
to just watch this week. (7) CHERRY RED ships in from PcD showing some good form...but his last bunch
of local starts were terrible - will wait to see a good local effort before endorsing.
RACE 6 - (1) POPPY DRAYTON N might not have been the selection had barnmate Homer Hall not been
victorious (jogged at 1/5) on Wed. night - the barn's struggles since 3/1 have been well documented, but
sometimes that first winner can lead to a bunch...this mare is more than capable of beating these if she
brings anything close to her "A Game" from this spot. (4) SLICK ARTIST A was hurt by a tiring leader in
her first try for a new barn last week but was still pacing well late when free - has won her share of races
here, and would be no surprise at all tonight. (3) MILADY DENVER A is good right now, and may just be
a good trip away from a victory - if she's a decent price, you'll want to include her on your tickets. (7)
SCANDALICIOUS sat in the back the last 2 weeks then finished in absolute overdrive once they hit the
stretch - not sure if she'll be able to improve position at the start here but if she can't, she may be coming
from a little too far back once again. (8) ANNABETH was a good 2nd to a sharp, tripsitting Vicious Circle
2 back, then had no chance for better in her last after being pinned to the cones for too long by a 102-1 shot
(who Dube just sat on the rim with from the start) - no idea if Stratton can get her into the hunt but IF he
can, she does have a license to upset these. (2) CHECKERED PAST appears to have gone off form but the
class drop and good draw may perk her up a bit - usable for 3rd/4th. (5) CABOWABOCUTTIE finished 3rd
for 5 straight weeks before a 4th place finish in her last - minor share only. (6) AMERICAN TOUR is good
right now but moves up and draws poorly.
RACE 7 - Tough race: (5) JEWELS FORREAL was racing in the bottom class not long ago before going
on a long form spree that carried up to the Open level - where she certainly didn't embarrass herself in 3
tries - gets some class relief here, and is capable of taking this if the trip goes her way. (4) WALTZWITHSI
ERRAA certainly wasn't "bad" last week, but it was a bit disappointing that she couldn't rally by in the
lane, after seeing her very sharp finish the week before (in her U.S. debut) - she'll be a much better price
this time, and it may not be a bad idea to give her another chance. (7) GIAS SURREAL went 2 big miles in
NJ (upon arrival from Canada) before landing up at the top level - gets some class relief tonight, but will
also have to contend with Post 7 - playable if the price is decent. (6) LUCKY ARTIST A was Zeron's
choice (over the top pick), and she certainly wasn't bad last week (arriving from Florida) - she may be a
little cheap, but it also would be no surprise to see her battle with these. (8) GOLDEN QUEST N is right at
home in this class but the draw does her no favors - may need to wait for an easier spot. (1) PONDER THE
ODDS won her seasonal debut, went sour for 4 straight starts but then came back to life, winning her last
pair - draws best, but may be a notch below a few of these. (2) MALNIFICENT has been hitting on all
cylinders lately, but goes for a new barn tonight and we'll see if that form comes along with her. (3)
BRONZE OVER N is very sharp, but vs. a bit easier- may be pushing her limits a bit against these,
RACE 8 - (4) ASHTINI was racing in fine form before throwing a couple of clunkers to close out April -
added Lasix and quickly was back on her game, racing well for 3rds in her last pair - drops tonight, and can
find a way to beat these. (8) LARJON LEAH has looked good in both NJ starts after the recent purchase -
obviously it won't be easy from Post 8, but she should be a decent price and is definitely worth including.
(2) SANDYS BEACH was able to take advantage of a very live trip with last week's win - gave it a good
try 3 starts back as well, and may be able to use her big brush effectively from this spot - possibility. (3)
LADYBELUCKYTONITE found her form a few starts back and comes into this with 3 wins and a close
2nd from her last 4 starts - she was quickly reclaimed by her former connections from her last, and we'll see
if she can be as effective one level higher. (1) DIXIE STAR N clearly loves the lead, and was able to easily
handle a cheaper bunch in her last - not sure she can replicate that performance against this tougher bunch -
but we'll see! (7) COVEREDNDIAMONDS N goes back to this barn for a 3rd time, but may need to find
an easier spot before returning any dividends. (6) AMADEROSA probably needs to be in cheaper to do
any serious damage. (5) DIAMONDTOOTHGERTIE is struggling now - wait for some better signs
RACE 9 - (4) TAKE ABIT OF LIFE was a winner in her last start in Florida and might have been a winner
here last week, had she been able to shake free a little sooner - moves up a notch tonight, but we'll still give
her a narrow edge in a very evenly matched field. (1) SEZANA N is still looking for her first win of the
year, but she's definitely getting closer - could end up with a very good trip here...and may finally get into
the 2021 win column. (3) ANN HILL was a very game 2nd after battling hard first over a long way in her
last- barn is going very well right now and this mare would be no surprise at all (2) MILLWOOD BONNIE
N struggled for a long time but finally was able to beat cheaper 2 back, then wasn't bad from a tough spot in
last - license to grab a piece, with an easy trip. (7) BONTZ N is a good fit with these, but will need to find a
way into the race - can't blame anybody for using her if close to that 20-1 ML price. (6) CLASSY CHAPEL
N couldn't quite last on the lead (vs. cheaper) in her first start off the claim but landed on a beautiful trip the
next week, and won at one level higher - takes another step up tonight, and also draws outside - small piece
possible. (5) CINDERELLA DELIGHT moves to another new barn and she's gone a lot of tough efforts
lately - might be in a tough spot here. (8) MOTU MOONBEAM N has definitely looked like she's tailing
after a long recent form spree - new barn, 8 hole, and probably not going to be her best week
RACE 10 - (5) TELLITSASSYMAE is just insanely sharp right now - she moves up yet another class and
faces a couple of nice mares tonight...but she's hard to go against in her current raging form. (6) IMPRINC
ESSGEMMAA got nipped at the wire by a sharp rival last week, but it's not like she raced poorly - she's
capable against much better than these, and races very well from off the pace - could be the biggest threat to
the top choice. (4) JOSSIE JAMES A weakened after a 2 hole trip last week and it's the first time she's
really "disappointed" in a long time - good chance she can bounce right back here, and be a contender for a
big slice. (3) SHECANDANCE N charged home to be a close 3rd here in her first start off the layoff but
was unable to get involved from the back in her last - expect her to be handled more aggressively tonight -
and very possibly be a part of the equation. (2) NORTH STAR IDEAL wasn't bad in her last pair (from
impossible spots), her barn is going strong, and she gets major post relief - good one to include underneath.
(7) LADY ROCKNROLLAA shipped down from Canada and raced very well for 3rd at PcD off a bad
date...then won her next start there in wire to wire fashion - she's probably a good fit here, but she'll need to
find a way into the hunt from Post 7. (1) THE CHARGING MOA has gone a lot of good miles lately but
figures to get outleft (even from the pole), and her trip is unpredictable - they may also go a bit faster than
she prefers. (8) ANGELS PRIDE is the outsider - literally and figuratively.