The Empire Report - Thursday, March 11, 2021 - Race Analysis
RACE 1 - (4) ZOE ELLASEN wasn't great here for much of 2020 but her recent NJ lines are better than
what we've been seeing from most of the local in this field - she hails from the 2nd leading trainer this meet
and deserves top billing...but not the type of horse to bet the mortgage money on! (2) ALL ABOUT AMY
woke up with a blowout at Monti 3 back, then just missed here in her next - got stuck behind poor cover in
last (behind #5), but the good draw (and soft field) put her back in play for one of the top slots tonight. (1)
CRYSTAL SPARKLES N takes some $$ every week and will attract a lot of play tonight...but she hasn't
even hit board in 6 straight starts, and would be hard to ever consider on top (right now) at a short price. (5)
CHECK MACH dug in to hold of #2 two starts back, but struggled on the rim in last week's quick mile -
eligible to rebound here, but insist on a good price if looking to use her on top. (3) CHECKERED PAST
hasn't done much lately and her overall YR form is less than stellar...but she does draw well enough for at
least a shot at a small piece. (8) KEYSTONE NIKKI just hasn't clicked in 2 starts since the claim, and
lands another terrible post - has enough good local miles to at least be considered by longshot fans. (7)
KEENE OLIVIA has missed 4 weeks (scr. sick) and has just one start in 7 weeks - tough to like her from
this spot. (6 ) ISLAY N has been struggling, and needs to up her game significantly to be a player
RACE 2 - (4) HUNTING AS has been a model of consistency in his 5 Yonkers starts, winning 2 and right
there 2nd in three others - he can race off cover, first over, and even leave (if McCarthy wants to), and he
gets the narrow edge in here...but there are a couple in here also capable of taking this. (1) BEERTHIRTY
K was handled conservatively off the bad date last week but the trip worked out perfectly, and he was able
to rally on by for an easy win (his 3rd straight) - draws the pole with the speed to take advantage, and
should be even tighter with last week's race under his belt - very legit threat. (5) HAYEK has been totally
frustrating for both his connections, and the betting public - we know the ABILITY is there...but in 4 local
tries he's managed just one win, and was his own worst enemy the other 3X - if he's on his best game here,
he can be a major threat - but that's a BIG "if". (2) ER SOPHIA shipped in with plenty of good Monti form
and looked very good rallying for 3rd off an easy trip - draws inside, and could land somewhere on the
ticket again. (3) NOBLE SAND MAN was invisible across the river in his first start for a new barn - he's
surely much better than that, but would like to see a start over the track before hopping on his team. (6)
KANDY SWEET has been unable to get back to the form she showed in those 2 wins back in Jan. - outside
draw isn't going to help her cause tonight. (7) WITH OUT A DOUBT has some ability and figures to start
improving in this barn - couldn't reach from a similar spot in last, though, and may have the same trouble
here. (8) KASHA V seems back in the right direction now, but tonight's draw is a killer
RACE 3 - Beyond wide open race! (8) IDEAL CLASSIC may be worth a stab tonight - would normally
say that the post will do her in but she raced well for Bartlett last week and he's back on board tonight -
maybe he'll have enough confidence to at least try to go forward when the gate opens...and she'd become a
legit player if she can get in the hunt without being used too hard. (6) LADYBELUCKYTONITE was
really good when 2nd two back but just an "ok" 3rd in last - if she brings her best (and lands on the right
trip), she would definitely have a chance to be right there. (1) THREEDEE DELIGHT A has one win in
seemingly a zillion local starts but she's legitimately sharp right now, and has been knocking on the
door...maybe she can finally get back over the hump? (4) COVEREDNDIAMONDS N was certainly sharp
in last week's front end score but was also helped greatly by a troubled favorite in the pocket - moves to a
new barn now, and not sure it's a good idea to hop back on board at what figures to be a pretty short price.
(2) ANN HILL jus hasn't been on her best game for some time, but the good draw does at least put her in
play for a small piece. (3) ACEFOURTYFOUR ALEX seemed to be in a good spot LAST week but threw
a rare total clunker - the price will definitely be good if you think she can shrug that off and bounce right
back. (7) ALL ABOUT MADI finished ok from the back last week and may finally be getting tighter - not
sure she can even get involved from this spot, though. (5) AMERICAN TOUR N drops, but is hard to
gauge from her 3 local tries - she's selected here at the bottom...but really wouldn't be a huge shocker.
RACE 4 - (4) AL MAR GOT A FEVER has a good Hilltop history and was sent off at 2/5 as a result, upon
arrival from Ohio - just threw a total clunker, however, tiring badly despite sitting a two hole trip - seems
like a good sign that she drops right back in the box, and she drops to the bottom level as well - gets at least
one chance to make amends. (3) WATCH MY LUCK was a very promising 4th in her local debut - got
hammered down to 3/5 for her next, cut the mile but got a little tired late and weakened to 3rd - another
looking to redeem herself tonight. (6) ONEIDA BLUE CHIP drops back down to the level of the recent
claim with excuses in her last couple - a good trip should put her right there at the end. (2) LA ALWAYS
AMARTINI went her best mile in a long time last week but had the terrible misfortune of running into the
barn-changing, form reversing winner - we'll see if the frequently inconsistent mare can build off that solid
try. (8) MOTU MOONBEAM N was a winner in her last two starts at this level, but now draws Post 8 for
new connections - willing to give her a look if the price is right. (1) QUITE A DELIGHT N is a total in-and
- outer, and will probably take some $$ of the 3rd place finish in last - willing to include underneath from
tonight's good spot. (5) BULLVILLEKARLA will be hoping for a hot battle up front in order to make use
of her late rally - not sure that'll happen, though. (7) WOODMERE OLEKSIAK wasn't bad at all last time,
double moving from the outside and still a close 4th - this just feels like a tougher spot for her to get into
the race, though.
RACE 5 - (6) SALLY FLETCHER A is actually very good right now, but will probably still be a decent
price (as a few others in here are sure to attract attention) - will need things to go her way, but the price
makes her worth a play. (5) SANDYS BEACH got her favorite trip last start (one BIG rush) and used it to
perfection, pacing a HUGE :26.4 third panel to leave nothing else a chance - bumps up a level tonight but if
that same version shows up, she may be able to take another. (4) MORE THAN MANY would have
normally been at least 50-1 last week....except that she was purchased by the "Super Siblings" and the
public has seen this team improve horses dramatically (overnight) MANY times before - was sent off at 2-1
from the 8 hole, found speed that had been missing for a couple of years and was an EASY wire to wire
winner - she just may do it again, but this is surely a tougher spot, and she's likely to be wildly overbet. (1)
AFFLUENT SEELSTER was no factor chasing a quick pace in last, but hung in ok and finished up well for
4th - should be able to sit a decent trip here, and grab herself a decent piece of the purse. (3) FREE EXCHA
NGE has a knack for saving ground and rallying for pieces, at good prices - wouldn't be surprised if she
was able to do it again tonight. (2) MILADY DENVER A throws some big miles and was actually one of
our choices here 2 starts back - didn't fire that night, however, then was empty in NJ as well - not really
sure what we'll get from her tonight. (7) JOSSIE JAMES A was given a bizarre drive in a seemingly good
spot 2 back and was left with no chance - when she opened up at 1/5 last week it was apparent that she'd be
handled more aggressively, and that's exactly what happened...leading to a pocket victory -- steps up now
and draws Post 7, and she'll need to be that much better to contend from this spot. (8) SOMETHING REEL
draws Post 8 and will likely have to wait for a better scenario
RACE 6 - (4) PONDER THE ODDS got really good for a while here last year and rattled off some "career
miles" - finished off her 2020 season the right way with a sharp win in PA, and that qualifier suggests that
she'll be ready to go right off the bench. (1) HIGH ROLLING A was an easy winner in the bottom class off
the barn change 2 back, but was even better in last, charging home for 2nd from a tough spot - steps up
another peg but she seems to be in a very good way right now, and can probably handle it - legit threat. (3)
CHASE YOU was outfinished for 2nd last week by #1, but her overall recent form is solid - include her in
exotics. (6) NORMANS MADELINE rallied with some belated pace last week for the show spot - draws
outside again, but may be able to show up for a minor share. (2) FAITHFUL DESIRE clearly had an issue
last week and really should have been made to qualify (to protect the public) - truly no clue what to make
of her chances tonight but if she's ok, she can definitely grab a piece. (8) IM VERY SPECIAL doesn't look
bad on paper, but she's definitely off her best game - could get into some trouble from out here, and will
probably take some tote action - vulnerable now. (7) JEWELS FORREAL exploded by the field last week
but that was a much softer bunch - stuck outside moving up, and that may leave her with too much work to
do. (5) SCANDALICIOUS was way overbet last time but was able to steal one on the lead - another that
seems vulnerable tonight.
RACE 7 - (7) SHES PUKKA A has been sharp for some time against the top mares at Dover, and ships in
tonight having won her last pair - she's very familiar with the Yonkers surface, has the speed to overcome
Post 7, and should have a solid chance in her Hilltop return. (1) ROBYN CAMDEN landed on a terrible
trip here 2 back but was still an excellent 2nd - she followed that up with a win in the Stga. Open, and she
wins the 1-6 draw tonight - very dangerous player from the pole. (8) DEMETER N was forced to make her
first try against older mares in the Open, but was able to convert an absolute dream trip into an easy victory
- she faces an overall softer field tonight but also gets stuck with Post 8...and that could make her a bit
vulnerable at a short price. (6) BETTERB CHEVRON N charged home for 2nd from a very tough spot last
week, and has been pretty good (overall) since the start of the new year - has an excellent chance to
outperform that 20-1 ML price, and possibly land somewhere on the ticket. (2) IMPRINCESSGEMMA A
has been unpredictable from week to week but seems pretty good right now, draws inside, and her barn is
really percolating right now - include her underneath. (3) NORTH STAR IDEAL is still trying to find her
proper level among these older mares - a smooth inside trip might help to take home a piece of this. (5)
BRONSKIMACKENZIE A was VERY sharp for a while but has come back to earth in a couple of starts at
the Open level - might perk up with the class drop tonight, but might also be a bit off her game. (4)
DONGAL RUNDLSCRK N has moved all the way to this high level thanks to 3 straight recent wins... but
will probably need to start dropping back down before contending for any kind of top prize again
RACE 8 - (2) A CRAFTY LADY showed up off a 3 month layoff 2 back and just exploded through the
stretch to win going away - got stuck battling first over with Monica Gallagher last week (who was
dropping from the Open and got away with a :59 half) so she had license to weaken a bit in the stretch -
barn sent out a terrific winner in Wednesday's finale, so maybe this mare will bring a big one tonight as
well. (4) POPPY DRAYTON N gave it a good try last week, holding together well for 3rd after getting
outrushed by Imprincessgemma A to the final turn - overall form is solid, and she should be a live player
once again. (1) BEST HONEY HANOVER struggled here in 2019 (5-0-0-0) but ships in from NJ showing
some sharp recent miles, and just seems like a much better horse now - hard to leave her out of the exotics.
(7) BRONZE OVER N is listed at 15-1 ML but she's actually pretty sharp right now - if Brennan can find
her a way into the race, she can make some noise here. (8) ROCKIN THE BOYS A got really sharp for a
few starts before struggling in her last across the river - guessing she'll race conservatively off that effort,
but check of the tote board wouldn't hurt. (3) MALNIFICENT seems to want to be in a bit easier, but her
last mile was a bit better - maybe can save ground and take home a small piece (5) BYE BYE MICHELLE
seems to be off her game right now, but has been known to perk up at any time - willing to let her beat us
tonight. (6) BALFAST N was better in her last couple after a couple of duds - still probably needs to be in
easier to have a realistic chance.
RACE 9 - (4) BELTANE A qualified nicely at PcD off the layoff then was excellent here in his first start
back, rallying gamely for 2nd behind the 1/5 winner - was right there with much better not long ago, and
this feels like a spot he should be able to handle pretty easily. (3) GHOST DANCE has been very solid
lately, despite a few tough trips/spots - good draw tonight should make him a solid player once again... and
probably the main danger to the top one. (1) CHACHING HANOVER has been ok chasing the 20s in his
last few - draws the pole, and figures to be able to take home a decent chunk of this. (7) BIG BAD BILL
was a BIG "go" last week, but was used way harder than he likes and tired badly - will likely be ignored in
the wagering tonight, but may be able to sit back and rally late for 3rd/4th. (2) RANCOUSY hasn't been
sharp but always rebounds eventually - throw him in for 3rd/4th if spreading in the exotics. (6) MAROMA
BEACH has thrown more bad ones than good ones lately - this kind of field is usually in his comfort zone,
but the outside draw figures to hurt - minor share only. (8) THE MOONSHADOW N drops all the way
down to the basement but doesn't really seem sharp enough to overcome post 8 right now - even at this
level. (5) ROCK N BLUE is off a break and a scratch - pass for now.
RACE 10 - (4) FULLBACK doesn't have the greatest YR win % but he's been pretty sharp lately, and
seems to be ready to get his picture taken...if he lands on the right trip - worth a play in the finale as long as
the price is decent. (8) ORILLIA JOE may look over and see an opportunity to blast from Post 8 and get
right into the hunt - if he's "live" on the tote board, you may want to include him on your tickets. (2) IN
SPADES has been right there in his last 4 starts but hasn't been able to get over the hump so far this year -
could be tonight, but he's likely to be overbet. (1) ARTMAGIC would look better one level down, but he's
more than capable of hanging in for a good piece with the inside draw. (6) CAROLINA MAGIC charged
home to beat softer 2 back, and was "sneaky ok" from a tough spot in last - not a bad bomb to throw in for a
small piece. (7) SPORTS BETTOR varies from week to week but even if he shows up in a good mood, it
would be a tough assignment from out here. (3) DEEDENUTO A was clearly short in last off the layoff -
will wait for a sharper try before considering. (5) KJ ERICH was weak at PcD 2 back then no good here in
his last - pass for now.