The Empire Report - Wednesday, April 7, 2021 - Race Analysis
RACE 1 - (2) MARILYNS JO definitely showed potential in her 5 starts as a 2YO - qualified back nicely
for her 3YO campaign, and finished with PLENTY of pace in her first start back....just from a very tough
spot - would look better in standard "NW2" event, but she looks good enough for a chance to beat this
somewhat better field too. (4) COVER STORY was way back in a fast mile in her local debut last week but
still paced a solid final half - she'll be more serious from this spot, and figures to have a much bigger say in
the outcome - definitely possible. (5) WAKEMESHAKEME was the odds on choice for her local debut last
week but Lachance waited way too long to cut her loose, and the wire came up before she could get there -
very legitimate threat, especially if handled more aggressively in her 2nd start off the layoff. (6) FLIRTY
FORTY was too far back last week to be a threat (same race as #4), but she has plenty of miles that would
put her in the hunt with these - definitely at a post disadvantage, however. (3) POWERED BY MACH was
invisible at the back last week, but a sharp first over 2nd the week before - chance for a piece at a nice price
if she can get back to that better effort. (1) UPTOWN CALLIE was outfinished despite a pocket trip in last,
and just seems a notch below the top ones. (7) P L NOTORIOUS was an ok 3rd in her local try but she's 1
for 27 over the past 2 years, and draws outside - tough spot. (8) WOODMERE HARRIET can hang with
these from a decent post, but figures to struggle from all the way out here.
RACE 2 - (1) HAMMER CREEK was very good at this level (and even a bit higher) earlier in the year,
and did hold his own vs. much better too, despite some terrible posts - good chance he can cut this mile
tonight, and that'll give him a big chance to come out on top. (2) LUCKY WEEKEND is used to facing
much better than this, but his current form has been less than stellar - we'll see if the drop to the bottom
level helps him find his better game...because that would make him a very dangerous player here. (3) KING
CAST beat one level better than these on 2/17, then drew several bad posts against much better - another
that could really come alive off the drop tonight, but he's also off a break and a poor effort in his last pair
....so it's hard to say if he's even close to 100% right now. (5) KATKIN AND COKE has been doing some
good things in Florida lately...when he manages to behave - probably a very good fit in this class...but
happens to land in a particularly strong division for his YR debut. (4) DEW CAN DEW is incredibly
camera shy at YR, but does draw well enough for a chance at a piece. (7) SUPERIORCOURT should be
able to beat this class sometime soon....but don't think it'll be tonight, from way out here. (6) TRAVEL
WINNER drops to a good level for him, but needs to show some better signs before being considered. (8)
TORKIL draws another 8 hole - and will need to wait yet another week for a better draw (and chance to
contend)
RACE 3 - (7) BULLY BOY has the speed of a high level trotter...but unfortunately, even after 56 starts,
doesn't have the manners to go with that - always a risk he'll make a break and/or get way too hot during
the mile...but down at this level, it's likely that he'll just outrun these, the same way he did last week, and 3
starts back -- don't fall in love at a very short price, though. (5) ABBIES CELTICLASS has been solid for
weeks, and comes into this off a sharp 2nd to After All Paul - if the top one falters, she's clearly next in line
(8) LIMERENCE's last was more like it, even if that was a weak field he crushed - no luck with the draw,
but can still end up with a nice piece if he's anywhere close to his top form. (4) WATKINS has been the
only horse in this barn to really function lately, and it was very nice to see the 14YO go over the $1M mark
with his win here 3 back - chance for a minor share against these. (2) TOTAL DIVA came up 2nd best
behind the top one's blowout last time - draws inside, and may be able to sit close enough for a chance at
another small piece (1) SHOWMEYOURGUNS has just kind of been going through the motions for weeks
- eligible to perk up with a good one at any time...but that's been the case for some time now. (6) CON AIR
HALL really needs an easier group (and better post) to be a serious player. (3) MISS YOU KELLY hasn't
been good recently, and seems buried again tonight.
RACE 4 - John Brennan Trotting Series - (3) MARY MAGDALENE skipped the first series leg to race in
a series final out in Ohio (she did very well in the legs, not so great in that Final) - we've seen so many of
these ship in and be successful for these connections, so we'll give her a shot in her Hilltop (and series)
debut. (5) SWISS HOUSE ONFIRE gave it a great speed try from Post 8 two back, then was right on the
wire with a pair of nice foes in last - elected to skip the first leg of this series, so we'll see if he can make up
for lost time tonight. (1) STINGLIKE A B K is a bit of a guessing game - his two efforts here in Feb. would
make him a major threat from this spot...but he's been racing for a new barn in his last two starts and it's
hard to really gauge where he's at right now - as long as he's a decent price, he deserves a spot on your
tickets. (8) LIFETIME ROYALTY was no factor last week but he was off 2 breaks, and racing (carefully)
over a wet track - he does have the ability to beat these, so at least give him a look if the price is big enough
(4) BAZILLIONAIRE is usually an afterthought but he's racing legitimately well right now, and could
easily grab a piece of this. (7) DESWANSLITTLELORIE was very good in that win 2 back, even though
DQ'd on a borderline (at best) call -- not as sharp in last, but may have disliked the off going - tough spot
tonight, regardless. (2) MANWILLING sometimes offers a decent late kick - throw him in for 3rd/4th if
spreading a bit. (6) GREY was an interesting proposition last week when he had a catch driver listed - his
owner is back down to drive tonight, so we'll pass....unless there's a late driver switch!
RACE 5 - John Brennan Trotting Series - (3) WINDSONG PIONEER is in fine form right now and may
finally get to cut a mile...which has always been his favorite place to be - lands in a competitive field here,
but may be able to take them wire to wire. (4) GRINDER was stuck racing from 5th with a 1:00.1 half in
front of him and just never had a prayer last week - he's gone some big miles here in the past, and figures to
be much more involved tonight - live player. (5) SVF CASH DEPOSIT got away well back last week and
never had a prayer - he's another that has gone miles here that could beat these...and may bounce back to
one of those tonight - good value horse to include. (6) GUILTY DESIRE figured to need the big favorite to
make a break in order to have chance last week....and that's exactly what happened, leading to his 11-1 front
end upset - would be no surprise at all to see him come right back and take another, but he definitely has a
few live ones to his inside tonight. (8) HALO ITS ME finally put in a good local mile last time, but an easy
lead and ridiculously slow half had a lot to do with that - will be a LOT harder to replicate that from out
here! (1) KASHA V has ability for sure, but has been going through a rocky patch for a while, and was
scratched injured from his last - will just watch, for now. (2) VINNY DE VIE has more ability than his
lines show, but he's another that has just struggled to get untracked for some time - waiting for better signs
from him (7) J S JASPER shows 3 qualifiers off the layoff - draws outside, and really figures to need one
RACE 6 - John Brennan Trotting Series - (1) HUNTING AS was content to sit the pocket despite the slow
half last week but still had no trouble sprinting home strong for the easy win - looking at another good trip
tonight, and has to be seen as the one to beat once again....but don't take too short a price, as there are a
couple of legitimate foes in here. (2) TIMON AS looked ok getting around the track last week (even with
the wet conditions) and did rally nicely from a tough spot - we know he likes to win races...and will have
every chance to do so tonight. (3) BLUE AND BOLD also did a nice job behaving on the off going last
week, a solid 3rd behind the top choice - ends up with Holland on board tonight and the last time they
paired up, it resulted in a blowout win - one to consider. (5) IMPULSE BUY got away in the two hole last
week and chased nicely from start to finish - Bartlett's choice tonight (over #3), and may be able to head
right to the top here - ok for exotics. (4) MCMATTERS was first over in both local starts and a solid 2nd
both times - leaning towards a few others, but wouldn't be shocked if he was able to beat these. LOOK IN
MY EYES was a huge overlay winner at 21-1 last week, hitting the top from Post 8 and taking 'em wire to
wire - just seems unlikely that he can catch this bunch by surprise too. (6) TAD KRAZY HANOVER has
done a good job behaving every week, but may be a bit off her best game, and will be coming from far back
here - tough spot. (7) ITSONLYMONEYHONEY failed to get into the mix last week and another bad draw
may leave him with the same predicament tonight.
RACE 7 - John Brennan Trotting Series - (2) GET LEGS worked his way methodically to the top on the
2nd turn last week....then blew up as the 1/20 favorite! Trotted the entire stretch on the infield until finally
getting back on the track well behind the others, caught up and started to gain on the rim, angled for the
stretch drive and was somehow just a length back in 3rd by the time they hit the wire -- can't blame
anybody for taking a shot against him at what figures to be another very short price...but the guess here is
that he gets it right this week, and makes amends for that last disaster. (4) LADY JETER benefited from the
other big favorite making a break last week, but was also impressive on her own with the front end victory -
should be able to grab another good piece tonight. (8) KENOGAMI COCO seemed to struggle with the off
going for much of the mile last week, but sure was flying late once finally into gear in the homestretch - at
20-1 ML, good one to include in exotics (1) P L NOTSONICE was scratched from Post 8 last week but had
a lot more luck at the draw this time - appears to have plenty of ability, but will be going without Lasix here
- logical player, but may end up a bit overbet. (3) KANDY SWEET was off 3 weeks to her last and may
have needed that start - barn just on fire lately, so maybe throw her in for 3rd? (5) MANHATTANUP NO
ICE shipped in sharp and just missed 2nd in the first leg - Bartlett takes him over #6, but still may be in a
tough spot here. (6) BANZAI AS just wasn't sharp last week and it may be bad sign that Bartlett bails to
drive #6 - sticking with others here. (7) KOLIN still has to prove that he can hang with these
RACE 8 - (4) MACH IT SO is about $68K shy of the $3M mark right now but will have a good chance to
get $5250 closer -- classy 11YO has obviously lost quite a bit off his fastball, but he can still thrive in spots
like this - barn has been pretty cold lately, but maybe this guy can get things going for them....will look to
take them wire to wire. (2) THE MOONSHADOW N was a solid 2nd best to a very well meant Im Benicio
A last week and looms the main danger again tonight - good chance he can get away right behind the top
one, and will have every chance to win the sprint to the finish. (3) CHACHING HANOVER gets important
post relief and that could trigger a much better performance - at 20-1 ML, he's definitely worth using in
exotics. (6) BALLERAT BOOMERANG is another listed at 20-1 ML that could easily outrace his odds -
could have been closer at the wire last week if not overdriven, and he can hold his own with better than
these when "right" - another good one for exotics. (5) DEEDENUTO A seems to be getting a little better
each start - chance to end up 3rd/4th with a bit of racing luck. (7) IDEAL COWBOY was way overbet last
week (2nd off layoff) and wasn't sharp at all - could be tighter now and will benefit from the class drop -
just not sure he's worth a short price when others are offering better value. (1) VILLAGE CHAMP has been
a little better in his last couple, but still seems well below the main players in here - even from the pole. (8)
ISSA HORSE is the outsider...literally and figuratively
RACE 9 - (4) AFTER ALL PAUL was an easier winner in his last than the final margin might suggest and
it was nice to see that he CAN leave a little bit, if the opportunity exists - moves up once class tonight, but
these are still right in his wheelhouse - chance to repeat. (2) CRAZYCAT was a sharp "brush and crush"
winner 2 back...couldn't sustain his bid as well in last, but it was still another good effort - should be able to
be a player again tonight with the good inside draw. (7) NEW HEAVEN gets stuck outside again but could
be a player here IF Marohn is willing to take a shot at improving position at the start - he'll be a good price,
and couldn't blame anybody for looking to give him a shot....at least for the exotics. (6) RACEACE made a
break 2 back but has put in 3 other solid tries since the recent claim - not a great spot here, but a live cover
trip could help him take home another decent piece. (1) FOMOR will likely attract plenty of attention from
the pole but he's just 1 for 10 locally, and that win was on the lead, in the bottom class - willing to use for a
piece underneath, but no value using for the top spot. (5) E R SOPHIA has a win and two 3rds from her 4
local starts, and could definitely race better than that 12-0 ML suggests....will need some trip luck, though,
as she bumps up another class. (8) HAYEK has gone a wide variety of efforts since coming down from
Canada - just too unpredictable to consider from Post 8. (3) MUFASAAS has been a steady player lately,
but does seem a bit on the cheaper side.
RACE 10 - (1) GALLERIA GAL had a strong 3YO campaign, facing tough fillies and more than holding
her own - barn not usually known for having them wound all that tight off layoffs, but that very impressive
Monti qua. suggests that this lady is ready for a top effort right out of the box - also has a big post edge
over her main rivals. (7) PAIGES GIRL would have won that series final 2 back had she found room inside
and her last 3rd place finish was a solid try as well - with a little trip luck, she can be a big threat here. (8)
STOWAWAY HANOVER already had come up with three big-priced wins here before coming up with her
most impressive mile to date last week....where she took everything Golden Quest N could throw at her and
still came out on top - have to include her, even from Post 8! (3) READY SET ROCK was razor sharp in
her win last week, grabbing yet another (easy) victory for a red hot barn - hard to not at least include her
underneath, even facing this much tougher field. (2) TIPPPERARY HILL broke trying to close a hole last
week but had been racing pretty well prior to that - she'll be a nice price here, and does have a chance at a
small share. (6) DRAGON ROLL may be a little cheap, but she had good speed and her barn is really
clicking right now - ok for a small piece. (5) MOANING LISA's 2 local wins came in races that just fell
apart completely - returns after having to re-qualify, and is likely looking at a minor share at best this week.
(4) PRAY THE ROSARY steps up in decent form, but has to prove she can hang with these.